Ukraine soldiers receive a moment to rest in Chasiv Yar, in the country’s east. (Ed Ram/for The Washington Post)
Ukraine is better positioned to make headway in its expected counteroffensive against Russia than leaked U.S. intelligence documents indicated, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday, voicing confidence that Kyiv can reclaim occupied territory despite a host of military challenges.
Blinken declined to specifically address the trove of classified material that spilled into public view after it was posted on the Discord social media platform but said intelligence material detailing the military challenges that Ukraine will face, including problems fielding and sustaining troops, “reflected a particular point in time, and this is not static.”
Most of the leaked material dated from January, February and March. Officials have charged a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard with mishandling classified documents.
“Where Ukraine might have been a month ago, two months ago, three months ago, is not where it is now in terms of its ability, for example, to prosecute a counteroffensive and to deal with the ongoing Russian aggression,” Blinken said, speaking at an event marking World Press Freedom Day hosted by Washington Post Live.
The government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to launch a long-awaited operation seeking to recapture vast swaths of territory seized by Russian forces after President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion. Leaders in Kyiv have also vowed to push Russia out of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Putin annexed illegally in 2014 and heavily fortified.
While Ukraine’s military has performed far better against Russia than Western nations had expected, it has recaptured little territory since last year. One leaked U.S. assessment predicted that Ukrainian forces, facing shortfalls in heavy weaponry, ammunition and personnel, would probably make only “modest territorial gains” in its spring campaign.
Both militaries have sustained massive casualties, but even still, neither side appears inclined to negotiate an end to the war. Moscow earlier Wednesday accused Ukraine’s government of a brazen attempt to assassinate the Russian leader and declared that it “reserves the right to respond.” Officials in Kyiv denied responsibility, suggesting instead that the thwarted attack was carried out by “local resistance forces” and was being exploited by the Kremlin to justify Russia’s targeting of Ukrainian civilians.
Blinken, noting that Western nations have provided Ukraine huge amounts of weaponry and training, said he was “confident that they will have success in regaining more of their territory.” For Putin, he added, the war had already proven fruitless.
“Russia sought to erase Ukraine from the map, to eliminate its independence, to subsume it into Russia. That has failed,” he said.
Throughout the conflict, Blinken has expressed confidence in Ukraine’s military momentum even as its forces have complained about ammunition and equipment shortages, and advances on the ground have slowed. But he also suggested that the war may not end, as leaders in Kyiv have pledged, with the recovery of every inch of their country.
“Where exactly this settles remains to be seen,” Blinken said. “And Ukraine has to make important decisions about exactly where it’s going to go, how far it can get, and how it wants to pursue this. But we’re determined to sustain that support.”
Zelenskyy has expressed dismay about the Discord leak - which also detailed sensitive Ukrainian vulnerabilities in areas including air defense — and his irritation about the lack of follow-up from U.S. officials.
Blinken said he had spoken with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba about the leaks after the material was made public. In that conversation, Blinken said, he communicated that the United States “very much regretted the unauthorized disclosure of these documents” and had arrested the person allegedly responsible.
Blinken said Ukraine and other countries benefit from the “extraordinary information” the U.S. intelligence agencies generate, with much of Kyiv’s signals intelligence powered by America’s far-reaching electronic surveillance programs. He said foreign partners have not expressed anger to him about the leaks.
Blinken praised last week’s phone call between Zelenskyy and Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying it was “vitally important that China and other countries that have been seeking to advance peace hear from the victim, not just the aggressor.”
Earlier this year, Xi introduced a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, but had not spoken to Zelenskyy since the start of the conflict while having calls and a meeting with Putin. U.S. officials have cautioned China, Russia’s most powerful foreign friend, against providing weapons to Moscow.
Blinken said that it was possible China could play a productive role in bringing the war to an end and that Xi’s peace plan included “positive” elements. But he said it wasn’t clear whether the Chinese leader had yet accepted that Ukraine is the victim and Russia is the aggressor in the conflict.
