Last week, the U.S. State Department posted an essay calling for “civilizational” allies in Europe. In keeping with MAGA rhetoric, it attacked the region’s governments, the rule of law and its Big Tech regulation in the name of “democracy and Western heritage.” While this call has failed to tip the balance of power in recent elections from Canada to Germany, it seems to have been heard loud and clear in Poland, where nationalist Karol Nawrocki’s presidential victory sends a wider warning to a geopolitically squeezed continent.

It’s now increasingly clear that Trumpian attacks on the old certainties and dependencies of the trans-Atlantic relationship aren’t creating an equal and opposite reaction. Polarization on issues like migration, abortion and Europe was on full display in the 51% to 49% victory of boxer Nawrocki, a kind of fight-club-right candidate whom Donald Trump backed as essential for military support. Nawrocki wore his Catholic values on his sleeve, attacked Brussels’ Green Deal and opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Coupled with the shattering of 50 years of two-party dominance in Portugal, the recent centrist victory in Romania is starting to feel more like the end of a trend than the beginning.

What happens next? Nawrocki’s campaign rhetoric against Poland’s pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s “monopoly of evil power” suggests more fractious, paralyzed politics ahead for the fastest-growing economy in the European Union and its largest army. The presidency is a largely ceremonial role yet holds legislative veto powers, which will likely tie Tusk’s coalition government in knots ahead of fresh parliamentary elections in 2027. The effects of institutional blocks have been on display since Tusk took office in 2023, with outgoing President Andrzej Duda curbing attempts at far-reaching reform after years of conservative rule. Reform plans were key to restoring EU funding support.

And in keeping with a post-pandemic world where surging debt and spending are failing to be contained on both sides of the Atlantic, Poland’s outlook is now viewed more dimly by financial markets. The zloty currency weakened about half a percent against the euro, and yields on Poland’s international bonds ticked higher in early Monday trading. Even without having the reins of government at his disposal, Nawrocki openly opposed tax hikes on the campaign trail and pledged to block them; with parliamentary elections only a few years away, there will also be less appetite for budget restraint. The banking sector may be seen as a tempting target for future levies, according to analysts.

The message to capitals like Brussels, Berlin and Paris — which recently signed a defense treaty with Warsaw — should be to not rest on their political laurels as Poland likely takes a more skeptical stance on Ukraine. Even amid a trade war, MAGA-infused politicians are riding high, with the AfD leading national polls in Germany and France’s National Rally expected to win the first round of 2027 presidential elections whoever’s leading it. On top of disillusionment with incumbents and Third Way policies combining social liberalism with fiscal conservatism, a generational shift is underway, with young voters increasingly tempted by anti-establishment politicians in an era of unaffordable housing, job insecurity and TikTok politics. In Poland, the first round of the presidential vote saw anti-abortion candidate Slawomir Mentzen come top among voters under 40.

And rather like the core appeal of MAGA, which blames outsiders while promising a “manufacturing renaissance,” the economic geography of populism in Europe still matters. Poland’s post-communist transformation has been extraordinary, catching up economically to the West and walking its own foreign-policy path barely 20 years after joining the EU. Yet the familiar urban-rural divide was on display in this election, just as it was in Portugal. The revenge of “places that don’t matter” is increasingly palpable. There is no magic wand to fend off the twin pressures of Trump and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, but time is running out for Europe’s leaders to understand and address why voters are heeding MAGA’s siren song.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.