A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet flies over the Red Sea in the U.S. Central Command area of operations on March 23, 2025. U.S. airstrikes degraded the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but the group's smuggling network remains viable, according to analysts. (Gerald Willis/U.S. Air Force)
The Houthis are rearming for future fights and will continue to attack Israel, analysts say following a deal the Iran-backed militants struck with the White House to stop attacking Red Sea shipping in exchange for an end to crippling American airstrikes.
The agreement, which the Houthis characterized as an initial understanding, came after nearly seven weeks of U.S. bombing of more than 1,000 Houthi targets.
Those strikes killed top Houthi leaders, destroyed command-and-control sites and took out air defense systems, missile storage sites and drone stashes, the Pentagon said.
But a recent attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport shows that the militants are still capable of firing long-range ballistic missiles. With their smuggling networks intact, the Houthis will use the pause to replenish their supplies ,Yemen analyst Nadwa Al-Dawsari said, adding that local monitors detected a major weapons shipment to the Houthis just last week.
“For the Houthis, the ceasefire is not a concession but a calculated tactical pause, an opportunity to regroup, adapt and rearm,” said Al-Dawsari, a fellow at the Geneva-based Center on Armed Groups, in an email.
The Houthis, who control Yemen’s capital of Sanaa, have survived 11 years of war with the country’s internationally recognized government and a supporting coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the recent U.S. attacks represented an escalation beyond the previous administration.
But a full military defeat of the Houthis would require a ground operation, said Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Such a move likely would be politically unpopular in the U.S. and costly, said Paes, a former member of the U.N. Security Council’s expert panel for Yemen.
The Navy could have continued its airstrike campaign, which by some estimates has already cost more than $750 million. But it’s possible that the U.S. simply was running out of military targets, Paes said.
The Pentagon also has faced scrutiny over the loss of expensive military equipment, including at least seven $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drones destroyed by the Houthis and two F/A-18 Super Hornet jets due to mishaps aboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in recent weeks.
A recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project suggested that the Houthis have learned they can disrupt international shipping with minimal consequences.
“They can basically restart this for any reason at any time they want,” said Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.
The Houthi decision to halt attacks on shipping is reminiscent of an agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2022, after which the Houthis rearmed with the projectiles they’re using today, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The recent U.S. strikes on the Houthis did generate short-term effects, especially by killing top leadership, said Carter, who nevertheless expects the Houthis to reconstitute.
“This ceasefire may have created a temporary lull,” he said. “But one day, the United States is going to have to deal with this once again.”
