As Israel presses its bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, some global leaders are returning to a stalled diplomatic effort from decades ago to possibly shape postwar policies: the two-state solution.

The goal of a recognized Palestinian state alongside Israel was noted by President Joe Biden while speaking at the White House on Oct. 25. “When this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next,” he said. “And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution.”

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak discussed the “long-term goal of a two-state solution” on a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week. The European Council in October reaffirmed its commitment to a “lasting and sustainable peace based on the two-state solution.” Pope Francis, in an interview with Italian media, called for “that wise solution, two states.”

Despite the public endorsements, some scholars say the two-state solution is an increasingly unlikely prospect.

What is the two-state solution?

The two-state solution envisions a pair of territorially-distinct states — one for Israelis and one for Palestinians. The concept predates the creation of Israel in 1948, after the end of the British mandate for Palestine. But outbreaks of violence and war blocked progress over the decades.

In the U.S.-brokered Oslo accords signed in 1993, Israel accepted the Palestine Liberation Organization as the Palestinians’ representation, while the PLO recognized Israel’s right to a peaceful existence. The two sides agreed that the Palestinian Authority would take governing responsibilities in the West Bank and Gaza, creating some hope of a road map toward two states.

In 2000, President Bill Clinton unsuccessfully attempted to reach a deal with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat at Camp David. Months later, clashes broke out after an Israeli politician’s visit to a Jerusalem site venerated by both Jews and Muslims. A Palestinian intifada, or uprising, gripped the region for years.

“There’s been zero steps forward since then, actually,” said Gilbert Achcar, a professor of development studies and international relations at SOAS University of London, “and the situation has only deteriorated.”

What are the challenges?

Visions for a Palestinian state usually include Gaza and much of the West Bank with land swaps that would make up for Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Most international backers of the two-state solution favor returning Israel to the borders that it had before territory annexations after the 1967 war, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The challenges, however, are significant. Palestinians and Israelis currently live within the borders of what could become the other’s potential future state. Many Palestinian families seek to return to areas lost during a 1948 war, a mass displacement known as “nakba” or “catastrophe.”

Jerusalem is another major difficulty. Palestinians see East Jerusalem, which was annexed by Israel, as the capital of a future Palestinian state. The situation was further complicated by President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017. What do leaders say?

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, which governs Palestinian-controlled areas of the West Bank, has accused Israel of “systematically destroying the two-state solution.”

“Whoever thinks that peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full and legitimate national rights is delusional,” Abbas said at the U.N. General Assembly in September, before the current war began. Abbas, who is backed by the West, has been in office since 2005 but remains unpopular among many Palestinians.

Netanyahu said during a 2015 reelection campaign that there would be no independent Palestinian state as long as he holds office. Since then, he has appeared more receptive to the idea, but with major caveats on security. He told CNN earlier this year: “I’m certainly willing to have them have all the powers that they need to govern themselves, but none of the powers that can threaten us.”

Netanyahu’s cabinet, the most right-wing in Israel’s history, was inaugurated last year.

Hamas, the militant group that controls the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and others, said in 2017 that it was prepared to accept a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders. However, its then-leader, Khaled Meshaal, said the group would not recognize Israel or cede any rights.

Is a two-state solution possible?

Before the most recent war, Israel’s construction of settlements in the West Bank represented one of the most pressing obstacles toward peace for Palestinians.

Achcar, the SOAS professor, says that the Oslo accords contained no provision to stop settlement building, which has exploded in the intervening decades. “To have the Palestinians accept something like a two-state solution, you would need a full withdrawal of the settlements,” he said.

Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, noted that the Israeli withdrawal of just 8,000 settlers from Gaza in 2005 “tore apart Israeli society.”

Mark LeVine, history professor and chair of the Program in Global Middle East Studies at the University of California at Irvine, says a two-state solution is no longer possible. “Just look at the map,” he said, referring to the hundreds of Israeli settlements across the West Bank.

“We all wish that the two-state solution was possible because it would be easy to do. ‘Okay, you take this part, you take this part,’ like a divorce,” he said. However, “there’s no selling the house and splitting up,” he added.

The situation would have to be more like a “pandemic-era divorce where you divorced, but you’re still living in the same house,” he said.

LeVine envisions a sort of hybrid model: “shared, overlapping, or what we call ‘parallel states’” that aren’t defined by the connection between territory and sovereignty. “Israel could remain a Jewish state, Palestine could be a Palestinian state, but Jews and Palestinians could live anywhere,” he said.

He’s not alone in thinking beyond the traditional two-state model. Some Israelis, Palestinians and outside scholars have supported the idea of a confederation as an alternative. But Rand Corp. focus groups in 2018 and 2019 found significant opposition to a number of possible solutions, including a two-state solution and a confederation.

“On both sides, there’s no leadership that believes in peace,” said Mekelberg.

Still, he says the concept is viable. But “the two-state solution in 2023 would look very different from the two-state solution in 1993,” he said.

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