The NATO flag flies aboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman on Jan. 29, 2022. The U.S. and its European allies would control the skies in a potential conflict with Russia, giving NATO a decisive edge on the battlefield, a new Air Force-commissioned report says. (Jack Hoppe/U.S. Navy)
STUTTGART, Germany — The U.S. and its NATO allies in Europe would dominate the airspace in a potential conflict with Russia and enjoy a decisive battlefield advantage, a new Air Force-commissioned report says.
A future fight between NATO and Russia would diverge from the ongoing war in Ukraine in several ways, the Rand Corp. said in the report requested by U.S. Air Forces Europe and Africa.
“First, and perhaps most importantly, NATO air dominance would probably upset the stagnation that defines current ground operations” in the Russia-Ukraine war, the May 22 report states.
Over the past three years, U.S. forces have drawn numerous lessons from the Ukraine fighting. Some of the biggest have to do with whether allies have fallen behind in incorporating small drones and electronic warfare techniques, which have defined the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Other vulnerabilities center on the inability of the West’s defense industrial base to keep up with Russia’s capacity to churn out large amounts of ammunition. However, NATO has big advantages over Russia in combat power, Rand said.
Attacking Russian ground forces would likely achieve initial gains before NATO could mobilize a counterattack, but the alliance would eventually “dominate the skies over Eastern Europe,” the report said.
Neutralizing Russia’s air defenses also would enable NATO surveillance aircraft to spot enemy weak points and troop movements “while attack jets relentlessly bombard command posts, logistical nodes, and maneuver formations,” it said.
The Rand war game scenario involved a Russian attack on a NATO country and a claim to some of its territory. The fighting then quickly escalates, with American and allied forces launching an attack to reclaim the territory.
“A true conflict of this intensity could plausibly escalate into a nuclear war, especially if Russian forces suffer unsustainable losses or NATO actions threaten the integrity of the Russian state,” the report said.
The study put aside the nuclear wild card to examine how a conventional fight would unfold.
The findings come at a time of heightened internal focus about NATO’s preparedness for a potential conflict with Russia. Allied officials have warned that the Kremlin could be able to attack a NATO state within the next five years.
The situation has prompted members to ramp up defense spending and try to energize their industrial base to keep pace with Russia, which can churn out about three to four times as much ammunition as all of NATO combined on an annual basis, according to alliance officials.
Such concerns among allies are well-founded, according to Rand, which recommended that the Pentagon identify priority munitions systems for rapid production in the event of a protracted conflict with Russia.
Accelerating investments in drones and counter-drone technology also is critical, the report said. Still, air control and aerial-delivered firepower “are the keys to unlocking ground maneuver on today’s transparent battlefield,” the report said.
“NATO’s potential for successful offensive operations in a war with Russia appears much greater than (that) of Russia or Ukraine in the present conflict,” it concluded.
