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Yokosuka resumes seasonal TCCOR 5, Mindulle continues northeast away from Tokyo area.
Yokosuka resumes seasonal TCCOR 5, Mindulle continues northeast away from Tokyo area. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

11:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle is bidding the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area a gusty, showery fare-thee-well as it keeps motoring northeast toward cooler waters. Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports Mindulle will begin extra-tropical transition and within a little more than a day should become a cold-core low. Fleet Activities Yokosuka resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5 at 3 p.m. Friday. This is Storm Tracker’s final report on Mindulle.

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Noon Friday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle is moving rapidly off Tokyo’s coast and is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass 198 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at about 2 p.m. as a Category 1-equivalent storm. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Yokosuka’s forecast calls for heavy rain continuing throughout the day and northerly winds peaking between 38- and 44-mph sustained with 63-mph gusts at about 2 p.m.

***

8:30 a.m. Friday, Oct. 1, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle is closing in on closest point of approach to the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass nearly 200 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at mid-afternoon Friday as a Category 1-equivalent storm.

At 3 a.m., Mindulle was 339 miles south of Yokosuka, moving northeast at 17 mph and holding steady at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

JTWC forecasts Mindulle to keep moving northeast and pass 198 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 4 p.m. Friday as a Category 1-equivalent system, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

Yokosuka can expect up to 3 inches of rain along with peak northerly winds of 40- to 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at about 4 p.m., with rain lasting throughout the day and overnight into Saturday.

***

11:15 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Mindulle has been downgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon and remains forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass more than 200 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at mid-afternoon Friday.

At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 429 miles south of Yokosuka, hurtling northeast at 17 mph and packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 through Thursday evening.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pick up forward speed and keep weakening as it heads northeast, passing 204 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 3 p.m. Friday.

Yokosuka’s weather forecast still calls for isolated thunderstorms and heavy showers throughout Friday tapering off into Saturday, with northerly winds peaking at 40- to 46-mph sustained with 63-mph gusts at about 4 p.m. Friday.

***

5:35 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle is putting the hammer down and continuing to weaken as it dashes northeast on a Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track taking it southeast of the Tokyo area late Friday afternoon as a Category 1-equivalent storm.

At 3 p.m., Mindulle was 523 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, trucking north-northeast at 17 mph with Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 through Thursday afternoon.

If Mindulle stays on present course, JTWC forecasts it to keep weakening and continue moving rapidly northeast, passing 204 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 4 p.m. Friday, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at storm’s center.

Destructive winds are not forecast for Yokosuka and should not happen if Mindulle remains on its current heading.

Yokosuka’s weather forecast continues to call for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day Friday, with northerly winds peaking at 40- to 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at about 4 p.m.

***

1:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 through mid-day Thursday in advance of Typhoon Mindulle, which remains forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass more than 200 miles southeast of the Tokyo area late Friday afternoon.

At 9 a.m., Mindulle was 624 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka, rumbling north-northeast at 12 mph and packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

If Mindulle continues on present heading, JTWC projects it to weaken gradually as it picks up forward speed northeast, passing 213 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 5 p.m. Friday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

Yokosuka’s weather forecast calls for isolated thunderstorms and heavy showers starting late Thursday into Friday morning, with northerly winds peaking at 35- to 40-mph sustained with 63-mph gusts at 4 p.m. Friday, gradually weakening as Mindulle hurtles out of the area. Destructive winds are not forecast, but it should be a nasty afternoon regardless.

***

8 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Mindulle has been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon. Its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track continues to show Mindulle passing southeast of the Tokyo area Friday afternoon.

At 3 a.m., Mindulle was 693 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving north-northeast at 12 mph and packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 overnight.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to pick up forward speed, curving northeast and weakening slightly as it moves, passing 208 miles southeast of Yokosuka as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

Yokosuka’s forecast continues to call for isolated thunderstorms and heavy rain starting Thursday afternoon, with north-northeasterly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts between 1 p.m. Friday and 2 a.m. Saturday.

***

11:40 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Mindulle remains a powerful Category 4-equivalent typhoon and on course to pass just southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area at mid-afternoon Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 753 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving almost due north at 8 mph and still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. Fleet Activities Yokosuka remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 through Wednesday evening.

If Mindulle remains on present course, JTWC projects it to curve northeast and hit the gas pedal, steadily weakening as it goes and passing 210 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 2 p.m. Friday. Though destructive winds aren’t forecast, Mindulle’s forecast wind field is wide enough that tropical storm-force winds may be possible for Yokosuka and locales further inland.

Yokosuka’s forecast continues to call for isolated thunderstorms and heavy rain starting Thursday afternoon, with north-northeasterly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts between 1 p.m. Friday and 2 a.m. Saturday.

***

6:40 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for Yokosuka Naval Base and its properties at mid-afternoon Wednesday in advance of Typhoon Mindulle. Sustained destructive 58-mph winds or 69-mph gusts are possible within 48 hours.

At 3 p.m., Mindulle was 794 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving due north at 9 mph and packing Category 4-equivalent winds, 132-mph sustained and 161-mph gusts. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 80 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 275 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle remains on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to maintain present intensity and keep moving north overnight into Thursday, then curve northeast, weakening gradually as it picks up forward speed into cooler waters as the weekend approaches.

Mindulle is forecast to pass 198 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about mid-afternoon Friday, still packing Category 2-equivalent intensity, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center. Though destructive winds are not forecast for Yokosuka, a TCCOR upgrade may be possible if Mindulle tracks closer to the southeast coast of Honshu.

Yokosuka’s extended forecast continues to call for isolated thunderstorms and heavy rain starting Thursday afternoon, with north-northeasterly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts between 1 p.m. Friday and 2 a.m. Saturday.

***

Noon Wednesday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Mindulle is once again a Category 4-equivalent typhoon. Though the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track keeps storm’s center southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, its wind field is quite wide, and Yokosuka Naval Base’s forecast calls for heavy rain and gusts over 60 mph Friday evening into Saturday.

At 9 a.m., Mindulle was 886 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka, moving north-northwest at 8 mph and packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 70 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 235 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle remains on current heading, JTWC projects Mindulle to keep moving generally north overnight Wednesday, then curve northeast starting Thursday, picking up forward speed, gradually weakening into a Category 2-equivalent storm as it moves into cooler waters and well off the coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu.

Mindulle is forecast to pass 217 miles southeast of Yokosuka at mid-afternoon Friday. Destructive winds are not forecast for the Tokyo area, but Yokosuka’s extended forecast calls for isolated thunderstorms and heavy rain starting Thursday afternoon, with north-northeasterly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts between 1 p.m. Friday and 2 a.m. Saturday.

***

11:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle has re-intensified into a Category 3-equivalent storm and remains forecast to curve southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon as dusk falls Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m. Tuesday, Mindulle was 955 south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, crawling north-northwest at 5 mph and packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 100 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 230 miles from center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle remains on present course, JTWC projects it to keep strengthening and pick up forward speed northwest over the next day or so, split the difference between Okinawa and Iwo Jima, then curve northeast, put the pedal to the metal, weakening as it moves into cooler waters and pass 213 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 6 p.m. Friday.

Yokosuka’s extended forecast calls for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms starting at mid-day Thursday continuing into Saturday morning, with north-northeasterly 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts peaking from 1 p.m. Friday into early Saturday, diminishing into the weekend. An updated forecast should be posted Thursday morning.

***

Noon Tuesday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Looks as though Typhoon Mindulle has begun strengthening again; it has regained high-end Category 2-equivalent intensity.

It remains on course to pass southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area with gale-force winds and heavy showers forecast for Friday evening into Saturday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Yokosuka Naval Base’s weather forecast.

At 9 a.m., Mindulle was 1,034 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, crawling north at 6 mph packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 65 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 220 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle continues on present course, JTWC projects it to peak at Category 3-equivalent intensity, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts late Wednesday evening, then curve northeast, weakening to Category 2-equivalent intensity, passing 210 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 7 p.m. Friday.

Yokosuka’s extended forecast calls for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms starting at mid-day Thursday continuing into Saturday morning, with north-northeasterly 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts peaking from 1 p.m. Friday into early Saturday, diminishing into the weekend.

***

Midnight Monday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Mindulle remains a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track, it remains on course to pass southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area Friday evening. Showers and gale-force winds remain forecast for Yokosuka Naval Base and other parts inland.

At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 1,070 miles south of Yokosuka, inching northwest at 4 mph and had weakened to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 50 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 245 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to gradually re-intensify to Category 3-equivalent strength, curve northeast, weaken once more to Category 2-equivalent strength and pass 198 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 6 p.m. Friday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Yokosuka’s extended weather forecast continues to call for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms picking up Thursday into Friday, with northerly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Friday, subsiding gradually overnight Friday into Saturday. An updated forecast should be posted early Tuesday.

***

7:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle has been downgraded to a high-end Category 2-equivalent typhoon, and remains forecast to stay that way as it passes southwest of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area at mid-afternoon Friday, with heavy showers and gale-force winds forecast for Yokosuka Naval Base and locales inland.

At 3 p.m., Mindulle was 1,079 miles south of Yokosuka, inching north-northwest at 4 mph and had weakened to 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center. Still a mean monster, but not the super typhoon it was lo’ those two days or so ago.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 50 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 245 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Mindulle’s wind field is a vast one, and JTWC’s forecast track shows it only getting wider as it approaches the Tokyo area from the southwest.

If Mindulle remains on current heading, JTWC forecasts weaken slightly more into Tuesday morning, then re-intensity to Category 3-equivalent strength, peaking at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts as it splits the difference between Okinawa and Iwo Jima, passing 458 miles east of Kadena Air Base at about midnight Wednesday.

From there, Mindulle is forecast to curve northeast, weakening to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center as it passes 191 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 4 p.m. Friday.

Yokosuka’s extended weather forecast continues to call for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms picking up Thursday into Friday, with northerly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Friday, subsiding gradually overnight Friday into Saturday.

***

Noon Monday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Typhoon Mindulle continues moving very slowly north, maintaining Category 3-equivalent intensity.

According to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track and Yokosuka Naval Base’s extended forecast, Mindulle remains on course to pass just southeast of the Tokyo area late Friday afternoon, bringing heavy showers and strong gusty winds to Yokosuka Naval Base and the Kanto Plain.

At 9 a.m., Mindulle was 1,098 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka, crawling north at 3 mph and holding steady at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness.

If Mindulle stays on present course, JTWC projects it to pick up speed northwest, maintaining Category 3-equivalent strength, then arc northeast later in the week, passing 169 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 5 p.m. Friday as a Category 2-equivalent storm.

Yokosuka’s extended weather forecast calls for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms picking up Thursday into Friday, with northerly winds peaking between 40- and 46-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Friday, subsiding gradually as day becomes night.

***

5:30 a.m. Monday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Well, that was a huge drop in intensity. Mindulle’s life as a super typhoon came to an abrupt end overnight Sunday; it’s been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent storm.

It’s still a vicious beast, and remains on course to at least give the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area some gusty winds and showers, perhaps even destructive winds, as the weekend approaches, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

At 3 a.m., Mindulle was 1,113 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, 748 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and moving just a bit quicker, north at 5 mph, and packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 80 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds outward up to 205 miles, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Mindulle’s wind field is fairly wide and it’s forecast to widen more as it moves northeast in the coming days.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, JTWC projects it wobble generally north-northwest for the next day or two, then curve northeast, weakening gradually as it picks up forward speed, then passing a bit further southeast of the Tokyo area than previously reported.

Mindulle is forecast to weaken to Category 2-equivalent typhoon status, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center as it passes 160 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 5 p.m. Friday., then hurtle northeast away from the Tokyo area, passing 325 miles east-southeast of Misawa Air Base at about 3 a.m. Saturday.

***

11:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Super Typhoon Mindulle has weakened slightly, downgraded to a Category 4-equivalent beast. It has barely moved over the last several hours and remains on course to possibly impact the Tokyo-Kanagawa area as a Category 2-equivalent storm by mid-afternoon Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 1,139 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base and 497 miles southwest of Iwo Jima, crawling northwest at 3 mph and packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center. Still a vicious monster, but well away from any land masses for now.

If Mindulle remains on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving slowly, remain a super typhoon until probably morning and wobble northwest for the next two to three days, then curve northeast, gradually weakening to Category 2-equivalent strength as it passes 132 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 5 p.m. Friday.

Japan’s main islands remain inside Mindulle’s forecast probability cone and the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area just inside Mindulle’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands. More should be known about Mindulle’s probable impacts as the new week unfolds and the five-day Yokosuka weather forecast is updated sometime Monday morning.

***

6:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 26, Japan time: The Tokyo area could be in for an unfriendly visit as weekend approaches from an unwelcome weather guest in Mindulle, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

Currently still a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, Mindulle is forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to curve northeast and pass just south of the Kanto Plain as a Category 2-equivalent storm at mid-afternoon Friday.

At 3 p.m., Mindulle was 508 miles southwest of Iwo Jima and 1,150 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, crawling northwest at 4 mph and had intensified to 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at center.

It’s remained almost stationary over very warm water, soaking in that nourishment to become quite the deadly beast. The National Weather Service on Guam reports that typhoon-force winds extend up to 50 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 215 miles northeast and 165 miles elsewhere.

Fortunately, it’s far away from any significant land masses at the moment. At the moment being the key words.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to remain a super typhoon for the next day or so, then start to weaken slightly as it curves northeast and heads toward the Tokyo area.

Much of Japan’s main islands lie within Mindulle’s forecast probability cone, and the current JTWC forecast track shows the Tokyo area well within Mindulle’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

Model-track guidance and the GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles agree generally on a northeast course, but the question is how close might it come to the Kanto Plain.

But that’s five days out. Much can change during that span. For the moment, all U.S. bases in Japan remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness. Stay tuned.

***

12:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Mindulle has been upgraded to the third super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, joining Surigae in April and Chanthu earlier this month. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track indicates Mindulle might threaten the Tokyo area later this week as a possible Category 2-eqiuvalent storm

At 9 a.m., Mindulle was 512 miles southwest of Iwo Jima and 1,150 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, crawling northwest at 4 mph packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center – Category 5-equivalent intensity.

If Mindulle remains on present course, JTWC projects it to maintain super-typhoon strength for a day or so, gradually weakening and picking up forward speed as it splits the difference between Okinawa and Iwo, then curving northeast and head toward the Tokyo area.

Mindulle is forecast to come within 155 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka at mid-morning Friday, the end of the current JTWC forecast period, still packing Category 2-equivalent winds of 110-mph sustained and 127-mph gusts. A ways away yet, so much can still change. Stay tuned.

***

Midnight Saturday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Expect Typhoon Mindulle to remain out at sea for the next several days, splitting the difference between Iwo Jima and Okinawa and briefly reaching Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon status, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

At 9 p.m., Mindulle was 526 miles south-southwest of Iwo and 834 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, rumbling north-northwest at 6 mph and packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center, already a Category 4-equivalent monster.

But it’s not done strengthening, JTWC’s forecast track indicates. Mindulle is projected to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center at mid-evening Sunday, then gradually weakening as it curves northeast, venturing close to Japan’s main islands at the end of the current JTWC forecast period, mid-evening Thursday.

***

3 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Mindulle has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It remains forecast to peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, but remain well away from any land masses in the coming days.

***

12:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 25, Japan time: As Tropical Storm Mindulle continues moving northwest away from the Marianas Islands, it’s looking less and less likely that it might threaten Japan’s southwestern-most islands, including Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

At 9 p.m. Friday, Mindulle was 1,025 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 440 miles west-northwest of Guam, moving northwest at 15 mph packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

If Mindulle continues on present course, JTWC projects it to keep moving northwest the next three to four days, peaking as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon briefly late Monday, then weaken slightly as it curves north, well away from any land masses.

JTWC forecasts Mindulle to pass 435 miles east of Kadena at about 8 p.m. Wednesday, near the end of the JTWC current forecast period. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and should stay that way unless Mindulle’s forecast track shifts well to the west.

***

1:10 p.m. Friday, Sept. 24, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam and its neighboring Marianas islands was canceled at 8 a.m. and U.S. bases on Guam have resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 as Tropical Storm Mindulle continues moving northwest away from Guam.

At 10 a.m., Mindulle was 275 miles west-northwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 1,167 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 12 mph and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

Tropical storm-force winds extend 155 miles northeast from center and 60 miles elsewhere, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Mindulle continues on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Mindulle to keep moving north, reaching Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by mid-evening Friday and peaking as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-morning Monday, still well away from land.

JTWC forecasts Mindulle to begin curving north around the middle of next week, weakening slightly as it comes within 315 miles east-southeast of Kadena at the end of the current JTWC forecast period, mid-morning Wednesday. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles still differ regarding Mindulle’s eventual destination. Stay tuned.

***

7:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 24, Guam time: Tropical Storm Mindulle has strengthened slightly as it continues moving northwest away from the Marianas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service. U.S. bases on Guam remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas.

At 4 a.m., Mindulle was 190 miles west of Guam and 1,220 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 23 mph and had strengthened to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 180 miles northeast of center and less in other quadrants, NWS reported.

If Mindulle stays on present course, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep moving northwest, reaching Category 1-equivalent typhoon status by early Saturday morning and peaking at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center early Tuesday morning as it approaches Japan’s southwesternmost islands.

Mindulle remains forecast to weaken slightly as it curves east of Okinawa, coming within 306 miles east-southeast of Kadena at about 3 a.m. Wednesday, the end of the current JTWC forecast period. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4.

***

1 a.m. Friday, Sept. 24, Guam time: Tropical Storm 20W has been named Mindulle by the Japan Meteorological Agency. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan and Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for U.S. bases on Guam, as Mindulle starts moving away from the Marianas.

At 1 a.m., Mindulle was 100 miles west-northwest of Guam, 125 miles west of Rota, 165 west-southwest of Tinian and 175 west-southwest of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 16 mph and holding steady at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center. The National Weather Service on Guam reports that tropical storm-force winds extend 50 miles from Mindulle’s center.

If Mindulle stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep moving northwest over the next several days, peaking as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon late Monday evening into Tuesday.

Mindulle is also forecast to make its way toward Okinawa’s neighborhood, coming within 293 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base at 9 p.m. Wednesday, the end of the current JTWC forecast period. At 9 p.m. Thursday, Mindulle was 1,306 miles southeast of Kadena.

Model-track guidance is varied, as are the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles. Each agrees generally on a northwest track away from the Marianas, followed by a curve northeast in the Japan region. The question being, how close to land masses might Mindulle come.

Plenty of time to get ready for it, if necessary, should Mindulle track closer to the island. Stay tuned.

Just 411, Mindulle is Korean for dandelion. The last such storm named Mindulle occurred in August 2016 and gave Tokyo quite the hard time.

***

7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 23, Guam time: 20W has been upgraded to a tropical storm by Joint Typhoon Warning Center. A tropical storm warning remains in place for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. U.S. bases on Guam have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas.

At 4 p.m., 20W was 20 miles southwest of Guam, moving west-northwest at 17 mph packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. Heavy rain squalls and gusty winds can be expected overnight Thursday into Friday as 20W moves west-northwest away from the Marianas.

If 20W continues on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving west-northwest, becoming a typhoon at mid-morning Friday and increasing in strength to a Category 4-equivalent beast at mid-morning Monday.

And the latest JTWC forecast track shows 20W headed in the general direction of Okinawa entering next week, coming within 247 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base at the end of the JTWC forecast period. Stay tuned.

***

1:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 23, Guam time: A tropical storm warning has been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan by the National Weather Service in advance of Tropical Depression 20W.

At 11 a.m., 20W was 100 miles east-southeast of Guam, 110 miles south-southeast of Rota, 160 south of Tinian and 170 south of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 14 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, as destructive winds of 58-mph or greater are not forecast.

If 20W stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to pass 25 miles south-southwest of Hagatna, the island’s capital, at about 6 p.m. Thursday with 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts, tropical storm-strength.

From there, 20W is forecast to keep moving northwest, reaching typhoon strength at mid-morning Friday and peaking as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon at mid-morning Monday, well away from any significant land mass.

***

9 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 23, Guam time: A tropical storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan in advance of Tropical Depression 20W.

At 7 a.m., 20W was 175 miles east-southeast of Guam, 185 southeast of Rota, 220 south-southeast of Tinian and 225 south-southeast of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 14 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts, according to NWS and Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If 20W stays on present course, JTWC projects it to strengthen into a tropical storm by Thursday afternoon, cut across Guam at mid-evening packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it passes directly over Hagatna at about 8 p.m. Thursday.

JTWC forecasts 20W to keep moving northwest away from the Marianas and continue to strengthen, reaching Category 1-equivalent intensity at mid-afternoon Friday and peaking at Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon status early Tuesday morning, well out at sea and away from any major land masses.

***

1 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 23, Guam time: Tropical Depression 20W has spawned southeast of Guam. According to the initial forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, 20W is projected to move northwest, pass over Guam as a tropical storm late Thursday evening, then move well northwest of the Marianas as it mushrooms into a Category 4-equivalent beast, but stays well out at sea.

At 10 p.m. Wednesday, 20W was 304 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 9 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center.

JTWC forecasts 20W to turn northwest overnight, gradually strengthening and passing nine miles south-southwest of Andersen at 8 p.m. Thursday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; that may be upgraded by Joint Region Marianas by morning, though destructive winds are not forecast for the moment.

The National Weather Service on Guam 5:30 p.m. Wednesday update called for gusty winds and heavy rain to hit the island Thursday and Friday. Expect updates to that in the coming hours.

Once past the Marianas, 20W is forecast to keep strengthening as it moves northwest, becoming a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by mid-morning Friday and peaking at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center, still well out at sea and no threat to any major land masses.

***

11:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 21, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on a tropical disturbance, labeled 99W Invest.

At 10 p.m., 99W was just north of Chu’uk and 472 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Model-track guidance and the GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles indicate 99W should move through the main Marianas Islands in the next day or so.

The questions being, how quickly the disturbance might strengthen and how quickly it might move, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

NWS forecasts showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds Wednesday through Friday, with current estimates of 1 to 3 inches of rain.

U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Storm Tracker has the watch.

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