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Omais continues weakening as it approaches Korea, Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues its final warning.
Omais continues weakening as it approaches Korea, Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues its final warning. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 23, Korea time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final warning on Tropical Depression Omais. At 3 p.m., Omais was 155 miles south-southwest of Cheju Island off South Korea’s southern coast, moving north at 27 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts. JTWC projects Omais to keep weakening, cross the southeastern portion of the Korean peninsula and die out as a remnant low over the Sea of Japan (East Sea) at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

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Noon Monday, Aug. 23, Korea time: Omais has been downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It continues on its northward journey toward Korea, still forecast to pass through the southeast portion of the peninsula and perhaps dying out before it exits over water again.

At 9 a.m., Omais was 475 miles south-southwest of Pusan, South Korea, headed north-northeast at 21 mph and had weakened to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

JTWC forecasts Omais to put the pedal to the metal and weakening as it continues hurtling north-northeast, decaying and possibly dissipating altogether just north of Pohang on Korea’s southeast coast before it can reach the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

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6:15 a.m. Monday, Aug. 23, Korea time: Closest point of approach by Tropical Storm Omais to Okinawa has come and gone. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast Omais picking up forward speed, losing its edge as it keeps moving north-northeast and reaching Korea’s southeastern coast as a tropical depression.

At 3 a.m., Omais was 185 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, hurtling north at 14 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects Omais to accelerate, weakening to a tropical depression and hitting the southeast coast of Korea around midnight Monday.

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11 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: At this rate, Tropical Storm Omais might not even make it to the Korean peninsula, if the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast holds.

At 9 p.m., Omais was 170 miles west of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving north at 10 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. JTWC forecasts Omais to pick up speed, steadily weakening as it moves north and possibly die out before reaching Cheju Island just south of the peninsula.

***

6:15 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: Wow. Did Tropical Storm Omais dial it back strength-wise over the past 12 hours.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports Omais has passed over Miyako Island, about 175 miles southwest of Okinawa, and is steadily weakening as it continues its northwest push, which could see Omais possibly dying out as a tropical depression over the southern part of the Korean peninsula early Tuesday.

At 3 p.m., JTWC reported Omais as being 183 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, motoring northwest at 10 mph and had weakened to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts, barely hanging on to tropical-storm status. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Omais is projected to 164 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 7 p.m. Sunday, then arc northeast, steadily weakening as it picks up forward speed and make landfall late Monday evening as a tropical depression, passing 24 miles northwest of Chinhae Naval Base at 1 a.m. Tuesday and 9 miles northwest of Daegu two hours later, and as a shell of its former self.

***

7:40 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 22, Japan/Korea time: Little change since the last report. Tropical Storm Omais remains on course to pass west of Okinawa early Sunday evening, then turn northeast, hitting the southern coast of the Korean peninsula overnight Monday as a tropical storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., Omais was 220 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, headed northwest at 7 mph and holding steady at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

If Omais remains on present course, JTWC projects it to peak at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts, passing 144 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 7 p.m. Sunday. Kadena’s weather forecast calls for occasional southeasterly 23-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 34 mph with occasional showers.

From there, JTWC forecasts Omais to curve northeast, make landfall at about midnight Monday over the southern coast of South Korea packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts, passing 41 miles west-northwest of Chinhae Naval Base at 3 a.m. Tuesday and 15 miles northwest of Daegu two hours later, then cut back over the Sea of Japan (East Sea), gradually dissipating as it moves northeast.

***

11: 15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 21, Korea time: Looks like Tropical Storm Omais might burrow ashore over Korea’s southern coast as something a wee bit stronger than previously reported.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Omais to make a brief swath across the peninsula as a tropical storm overnight Monday before making its way back over water and dissipating in the Sea of Japan sometime Wednesday. That’s after passing well west of Okinawa late Sunday afternoon.

At 9 p.m., Omais was 266 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 10 mph and had strengthened slightly, 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at storm’s center. U.S. bases on island remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; destructive winds are not forecast for Okinawa.

If Omais stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving northwest and pass 160 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 5 p.m. Sunday, still packing 58-mph sustained winds at center. Weather outlook for Kadena continues to call for southeasterly winds peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday with up to a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

From there, JTWC forecasts Omais’ track to bend to the northeast, weakening slightly as it moves, making a direct pass over Cheju Island off Korea’s south coast at mid-evening Monday, then hurtling ashore, passing 43 miles northwest of Chinhae Naval Base and 17 northwest of Daegu early Tuesday morning, before moving back over the Sea of Japan (East Sea) as the week wears on.

***

5 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Little change beyond numbers regarding Tropical Storm Omais. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast Omais peaking at 58-mph sustained winds early Sunday, motoring west of Okinawa at mid-afternoon Sunday, arcing northeast toward the Korean Peninsula early Tuesday and dying out over the Sea of Japan (East Sea) as a tropical depression.

At 3 p.m., Omais was 311 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 9 mph and holding steady at 52-mph sustained wings and 63-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 through Saturday afternoon.

JTWC projects Omais to peak at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at about 3 a.m. Sunday. But that’s at storm’s center, which is forecast to pass 164 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 3 p.m. Sunday. Kadena’s forecast continues to call for southeasterly winds peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday with up to a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Omais is then forecast to arc north, then northeast, weakening gradually, passing 178 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan at 3 a.m. Tuesday, then come ashore on the southwest coast of Korea, passing 59 miles northwest of Chinhae Naval Base at 7 a.m. Tuesday, cross the peninsula into the Sea of Japan where it’s forecast to dissipate late Tuesday into Wednesday.

***

Noon Saturday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Tropical Storm Omais has strengthened some, but remains on track to pass well west of Okinawa. Even southwestern Japan appears to be in the clear, for now, as Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast calls for Omais to burrow into the Korean peninsula and die out as a tropical depression.

At 9 a.m., Omais was 353 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 14 mph and had intensified to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Destructive winds are not forecast for the island.

If Omais stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts, but pass 173 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 2 p.m. Sunday.

Omais is then forecast to gradually arc north, pass 173 miles west-northwest of Sasebo Naval Base, then push northeast, weakening as it goes and making landfall over the southern Korean coast, passing 46 miles west of Naval Base Chinhae at 3 a.m. Tuesday morning.

Kadena’s and Sasebo’s weather forecasts remain the same as reported earlier.

***

7:30 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 21, Japan time: Omais has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It remains on course to pass more than 150 miles west of Okinawa late Sunday evening as a tropical storm, then weaken as it moves northeast and possibly die out before reaching the Korean peninsula and Kyushu in southwestern Japan.

At 3 a.m., Omais was 457 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving slowly northwest at 7 mph and had strengthened to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 overnight; destructive winds are not forecast for the island.

If Omais remains on present course, JTWC forecasts it to peak at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Saturday, then curve north, passing 161 miles west of Kadena at midnight Sunday as a tropical storm, picking up forward speed and could dissipate by early morning Tuesday.

Kadena’s weather forecast over the weekend calls for southeasterly winds, shifting southerly and peaking at 19-mph sustained and gusts up to 29 mph early Monday, with a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as the new week begins.

***

Midnight Friday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Tropical Depression 16W has slowed somewhat and its forecast track has shifted almost due west the last six hours. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update shows 16W passing further west of Okinawa than previously reported.

At 9 p.m., 16W – named Omais by Japan Meteorological Agency – was 515 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving west at 12 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. JTWC does not forecast destructive winds for Okinawa at the moment; 16W is projected to peak at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at mid-evening Saturday, and pass 163 miles west of Kadena at 4 a.m. Monday.

Kadena’s weather forecast remains the same: Southeasterly winds, shifting southerly on Sunday, peaking at 19-mph sustained with gusts between 27 and 29 mph with a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

From there, 16W remains forecast to arc northeast and weaken to a tropical depression as it moves through the Tsushima Strait, passing 62 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base, Japan, at 8 a.m. Tuesday, and 53 miles southeast of Pusan, South Korea, three hours later.

Sasebo’s forecast calls for showers as the new week begins, with southeasterly to southerly winds peaking between 18 and 23 mph sustained and 35-mph gusts overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, then gradually subsiding as afternoon wears on.

***

Noon Friday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Tropical Depression 16W continues on its northwestward journey, but the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows a bit better news for Okinawa, with passage now expected a bit further west than previously reported.

At 9 a.m., 16W was 554 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, motoring northwest at 15 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center. Destructive winds are still not forecast for Okinawa at the moment. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 through Friday morning.

If 16W stays on present course, it’s forecast to peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center late Saturday evening, then weaken as it curves north, passing 97 miles west of Kadena at mid-afternoon Sunday, with 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center as it rolls past.

Kadena’s weather forecast continues to call for southeasterly winds, shifting southerly on Sunday, peaking at 19-mph sustained with gusts between 27 and 29 mph with a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

From there, 16W is forecast to arc northeast and weaken to a tropical depression as it moves through the Tsushima Strait, passing 72 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base, Japan, at 1 a.m. Tuesday, and 34 miles southeast of Pusan, South Korea, four hours later.

Sasebo’s forecast calls for moderate showers Tuesday and Wednesday – as if the area hasn’t had enough rain already – with southeasterly to southerly winds peaking between 18 and 23 mph sustained and 35-mph gusts overnight Monday into Tuesday.

***

6:15 a.m. Friday, Aug. 20, Japan time: Tropical Depression 16W continues moving northwest, on course to pass just over 60 miles west of Okinawa at mid-day Sunday as a tropical storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., 16W was 619 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 12 mph and had strengthened to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 overnight Thursday into Friday. JTWC does not forecast destructive winds for Okinawa at the moment.

If 16W stays on present course, JTWC projects 16W to keep moving northwest, peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Saturday, then slowly weaken as it arcs north, passing 63 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 1 p.m. Sunday, still packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it passes.

Kadena’s weather forecast calls for southeasterly winds, shifting southerly on Sunday, peaking at 19-mph sustained with gusts between 27 and 29 mph with a 40-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

From there, 16W is forecast to arc northeast and weaken to a tropical depression as it moves through the Tsushima Strait, passing 46 miles northwest of Sasebo Naval Base, Japan, at 10 p.m. Monday and 68 miles southeast of Kimhae Air Base, South Korea, five hours later.

Sasebo’s forecast calls for moderate showers Tuesday and Wednesday – as if the area hasn’t had enough rain already – with southeasterly to southerly winds peaking between 18 and 23 mph sustained and 35-mph gusts overnight Monday into Tuesday.

***

Midnight Thursday, Aug. 19, Japan time: After being given up for dead earlier this week, Tropical Depression 16W has sprung back to life, and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, it’s forecast to edge west of Okinawa over the weekend.

At 9 p.m., 16W was 646 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 15 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, and the initial JTWC forecast does not call for destructive winds as it approaches or passes the island.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center at mid-day Saturday, then weaken back into a tropical depression and pass 74 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 11 p.m. Sunday with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. More to come in the morning.

***

8 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 19, Japan time: Looks like what used to be Tropical Storm 16W, which passed over Guam earlier this week, hasn’t quite died and gone away yet.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on 16W. At 4:30 a.m., it was 955 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed northwest at 9 mph with winds between 20 and 25 mph.

Model-track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles indicate a northwest track in the general direction of Ishigaki and Miyako islands southwest of Okinawa, as a possible tropical storm. Something that bears watching in the next couple of days.

***

4 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 17, Guam time: U.S. bases on Guam have set seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas, as Tropical Depression 16W moves west away from the Marianas Islands, and remains forecast to develop into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it approaches Taiwan.

***

1 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 17, Guam time: Closest point of approach by Tropical Storm 16W to Guam has come and gone. As it bids a hasty farewell to the island, 16W remains forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to build up into something significant long after it departs the Marianas.

At 10 a.m., 16W was passing right over Guam and moving west at 18 mph, still holding steady at 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts at center. Heavy rain and gusty winds have been pelting the island much of the morning, but should subside by evening as 16W keeps moving out of the area. U.S. bases on Guam remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 through the morning.

It’s what happens after 16W departs that makes it significant. Assuming 16W remains on course, JTWC forecasts it to gradually, steadily intensify as it moves in the general direction of Taiwan, peaking at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts through the end of JTWC’s forecast period (five days out). 16W is forecast to pass 383 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at mid-morning Sunday.

***

12:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 17, Guam time: The tropical storm watch for Guam and Rota have been canceled by the National Weather Service, though Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 remains raised as a precaution for U.S. bases on Guam, according to Joint Region Marianas.

This because Tropical Depression 16W continues to remain a rather weak system, with 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts at center, what Joint Typhoon Warning Center considers below its warning intensity. Still, the long-range outlook calls for 16W to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, but well after it departs the Marianas Islands, several days after.

At 10 p.m., 16W was 222 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west at 18 mph. 16W remains forecast to pass directly over Andersen Air Force Base, 18 miles north of Naval Base “Big Navy” and 36 miles south of Rota, its neighbor to the north, between 10 a.m. and noon Tuesday.

Tropical conditions are not forecast, but Guam can expect heavy gusts with up to 4 inches of rain through Tuesday and perhaps beyond, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

From there, JTWC forecasts 16W to encounter far better conditions for development as it tracks west-northwest through the Philippine Sea. Model-track guidance and the GFS ensemble indicate a track in the general direction of Taiwan over the next week.

***

6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 16, Guam time: Tropical Depression 16W has weakened yet again and its Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has edged slightly north, depicting passage between Guam and Rota, its neighbor to the north, at about mid-day Tuesday.

At 4 p.m., 16W was 329 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west-northwest at 18 mph with 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts at center.

A tropical storm watch and flash-flood watch remain in effect for Guam and Rota, according to the National Weather Service. U.S. bases on Guam remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas.

If 16W remains on current course, JTWC forecasts it to maintain current intensity or strengthen slightly as it passes 25 miles north of Naval Base “Big Navy,” 25 miles south of Rota and 10 miles north of Andersen between noon and 1 p.m. Tuesday. Expect rain and gusty winds as 16W passes through.

JTWC projects the environment to become more favorable and for 16W to intensify as it moves west-northwest toward southern Taiwan, peaking as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Saturday. 16W is forecast to pass 460 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at mid-afternoon Saturday.

***

1:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 16, Guam time: Little change to previous reports. Tropical Depression 16W remains on a beeline path toward Guam, forecast to pass over the island at mid-afternoon Tuesday, then strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon well after it exits the Marianas, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 a.m., 16W was 431 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west at 18 mph, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam and Rota. Joint Region Marianas remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to strengthen slightly, to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts as it passes through Guam between 2 and 3 p.m. Tuesday. Expect rain and gusty winds as 16W makes its way through the Marianas.

From there, 16W is forecast to track west-northwest in the general direction of the Batanes and Babuyan island groups just north of Luzon in the Philippines and south of Taiwan, peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-morning Saturday, the end of the JTWC forecast period.

***

12:30 a.m. Monday, Aug. 16, Guam time: The tropical storm watch for Guam has been extended to Rota, its neighbor to the north, in advance of Tropical Depression 16W, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 remains in effect for U.S. bases on Guam, according to Joint Region Marianas.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast 16W to make a beeline west and pass over Guam as a tropical depression, but is then projected to strengthen as it curves northwest away from the Marianas.

At 10 p.m., 16W was 641 miles east of Andersen Air Force base, moving west at 19 mph and had weakened to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts. 16W is forecast to maintain that intensity, then strengthen slightly as it passes right over Guam, between 11 a.m. and noon Tuesday, with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

Though 16W isn’t forecast to wreak much havoc on the island, the Joint Region Marianas and Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense Facebook pages contain an awful lot of good information on preparing for tropical cyclones, as do Andersen’s and Naval Base “Big Navy’s.” Just in case. It is weather we’re talking about, after all.

From there, JTWC projects 16W to curve west-northwest, gradually intensifying as it goes, reaching Category 1-equivalent strength late Thursday evening and peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center through the JTWC forecast period (five days out).

Both model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble continue to depict west-northwest tracks in the general direction of Taiwan, with outliers spreading from the northern tip of Luzon in the Philippines to Kyushu in southwestern Japan. Much can change in the coming days. Stay tuned.

***

1:30 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 15, Guam time: Joint Region Marianas has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

The upgraded, downgraded and upgraded 16W has once more been downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Not for long, though. JTWC projects 16W to remain a tropical depression for about a day, then ramp up again as a tropical storm as it reaches Guam at just past mid-day Tuesday. As it rumbles past the Marianas, 16W is then forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by mid-morning Friday.

At 10 a.m., 16W was 825 miles east of Guam and 775 miles east-southeast of Saipan, moving due west at 15 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.

Model track guidance continues to depict 16W headed west-northwest in the general direction of Taiwan in the coming week.

The GFS forecast ensemble’s best track shows the same, with solutions spread all over the lot from central Luzon in the northern Philippines to Kyushu in southwestern Japan. Then, there’s the CMC ensemble, which favors a curve north toward Shikoku in south-central Japan, but as naught more than a weak tropical storm.

As with previous Storm Tracker reports, it’s difficult to tell what may happen five days to a week from now. We have the watch.

***

9:30 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 15, Guam time: A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.

At 7 a.m., 16W was 905 miles east of Guam and 860 miles east-southeast of Saipan, moving west at 15 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 75 miles north of center and 40 miles south, the NWS reports.

***

9 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 15, Guam time: Tropical Storm 16W continues making a beeline west toward the Marianas and remains forecast to move over Guam just past mid-day Tuesday as a tropical storm after briefly weakening to a tropical depression early this week, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 a.m., 16W was 952 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, motoring west at 15 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. No tropical-storm watches or warnings are up for the Marianas.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to keep moving generally west, pass 33 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base and 20 miles north of Naval Base “Big Navy” between 1 and 2 p.m. Tuesday, with 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble continue to show a spread among solutions, stretching between the northern Philippines and Kyushu in southwestern Japan. Still plenty of room for change long-term.

***

6:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 14, Guam time: Upgraded and downgraded once each already, 16W has been upgraded to a tropical storm, again, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It remains on target for mid-day Tuesday passage just south of Guam, and intensifying into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at mid-afternoon Wednesday.

At 4 p.m., 16W was 1,254 miles east of Saipan and 1,317 miles east of Guam, moving west-southwest at 17 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. The tropical storm watch for Ewenetak has been canceled; no other watches or warnings are in place, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to maintain its current intensity, then start ramping up in strength, 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts, as it rolls 36 miles south-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 19 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy.”

From there, 16W is forecast to arc west-northwest, reaching 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday.

Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble continue to depict a track generally west-northwest toward Taiwan and the northern Philippines, while the CMC ensemble favors a track closer to Okinawa and southwestern Japan.

It’s way too early to tell what 16W might end up doing long-term. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

7:40 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 14, Guam time: 16W has weakened into a tropical depression, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It remains on a westerly course toward Guam and is forecast to reach tropical-storm intensity again as it passes through the island early Tuesday morning.

At 4 a.m., 16W was about 500 miles south-southwest of Wake Island, 1,315 miles east of Saipan and 1,370 miles east of Guam with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center, moving west at 14 mph. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Ewenetak, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to keep heading west, strengthening back into a tropical storm at mid-afternoon Sunday, passing 29 miles south-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 15 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy” between 2 and 3 p.m. Tuesday.

From there, 16W is forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength early Thursday morning, then track west-northwest in the general direction of Taiwan and the northern Philippines.

***

Midnight Friday, Aug. 13, Guam time: Tropical Storm 16W remains on a westerly track toward Guam, is forecast to gradually strengthen as the new week unfolds and reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength as mid-week approaches, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 p.m., 16W was 450 miles south of Wake Island, 1,335 miles east of Saipan and 1,395 miles east of Guam, moving west at 14 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Enewetak, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If 16W stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to keep heading west, start intensifying late Monday, pass 34 miles south-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 18 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy,” packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it roars past.

16W is then forecast to curve west-northwest, reaching 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center late Wednesday evening.

Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble continue to depict a west-northwest track in the general direction of the northern Philippines and southern Taiwan. Still too early to say definitively where it might go.

***

6:45 p.m. Friday, Aug. 13, Guam time: Tropical Storm 16W’s latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track keeps it about middling tropical-storm strength until just as it reaches or passes Guam just to the south, then increasing in strength as it moves west-northwest away from the Marianas in the general direction of Taiwan.

At 4 p.m., 16W was 1,492 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, motoring almost due west at 18 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Enewetak, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If it stays on its current course, JTWC forecasts 16W to keep making a beeline west, strengthen to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it passes 13 miles south of Guam’s capital of Hagatna at 10 a.m. Tuesday, then curve slightly northwest and really start to intensify, to 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center at mid-morning Wednesday as it hurtles away from the Marianas.

Model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble indicate passage west-northwest in the general direction of Taiwan, with a fairly vast spread stretching from northern Luzon in the Philippines to just northeast of Kagoshima in Kyushu in southwestern Japan.

But all that is 10 days away, at least. Way too early to draw conclusions at this point. Storm Tracker has the watch.

Should 16W become a named storm, it would be called Omais, an American contribution from Palau, which means “wandering about.”

***

1:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 13, Guam time: 16W has been upgraded to a tropical storm and continues on a westerly path toward Guam, possibly reaching the Marianas Islands at mid-day Tuesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 a.m., 16W was 1,605 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base – a good four days out – moving west-northwest at 15 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

If 16W stays on present course, JTWC forecasts it to pass 57 miles south of Andersen at 8 p.m. Tuesday as a tropical storm, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

***

1:15 a.m. Friday, Aug. 13, Guam time: It’s about five days away or thereabouts, but eyes are trained east on Tropical Depression 16W, headed west in the general direction of Guam, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 p.m., 16W was 1,765 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, motoring west-southwest at 16 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

If 16W keeps on its same course, JTWC forecasts it to keep moving west, passing 64 miles south of Andersen late Tuesday evening into Wednesday with tropical storm-force winds, 46-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts, at center as it roars past.

Long-range model-track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble indicate continued westward movement once out of the Marianas, with a spread stretching from northern Luzon in the Philippines to Kyushu in southwestern Japan. Storm Tracker has the watch.

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