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Champi continues to weaken, remains forecast to pass well southeast of Tokyo-Kanto Plain.
Champi continues to weaken, remains forecast to pass well southeast of Tokyo-Kanto Plain. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

3 p.m. Sunday, June 27, Japan time: Tropical Storm Champi continues to weaken and remains forecast to pass well southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area Sunday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 a.m., Champi was 396 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, rumbling north-northeast at 20 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

If Champi continues on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to pass 284 miles southeast of Yokosuka at about 7 p.m. Sunday. JTWC’s latest track shows the heavier of the wind bands and rain in Champi’s southeast quadrant, even further away from Yokosuka.

Barring any unexpected developments, this should be Storm Tracker’s final report on Champi.

***

5:30 p.m. Saturday, June 26, Japan time: Champi had a brief life as a typhoon; it’s been downgraded back to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Champi is forecast to weaken gradually as it curves northeast, remaining well southeast of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area.

At 3 p.m., Champi was 116 miles northwest of Iwo Jima and 676 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, traveling north-northeast at 14 mph, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, just below Category 1-equivalent intensity.

If Champi remains on present heading, JTWC projects it to make a soft arc northeast, pick up forward speed and weaken as it goes, passing 276 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 6 p.m. Sunday, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at storm’s center, well away from land.

Local weather forecasts for Sunday call for northeasterly winds gusting to 35 mph at times with showers and possible thunderstorms through Sunday into early Monday.

***

5:30 p.m. Friday, June 25, Japan time: Champi has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency as of 3 p.m. Friday. It’s forecast by JTWC to pass more than 250 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, overnight Sunday.

At 3 p.m., Champi (Laotian for red jasmine flower) was 920 miles south of Yokosuka 232 miles southwest of Iwo Jima, moving almost due north at 11 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

If Champi remains on present heading, it’s due to peak as a Category 2-equivalent cyclone, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center just after it reaches closest point of approach to Iwo Jima, forecast for 138 miles west at 1 p.m. Saturday.

From there, JTWC projects Champi to curve north-northeast, passing 252 miles southeast of Yokosuka at 10 p.m. Sunday.

For the moment, no advisories or warnings are in effect for Yokosuka; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in seasonal tropical cyclone conditions of readiness.

Yokosuka’s official weather forecast calls for winds and showers to pick up over the weekend, with north-northeasterly winds peaking at 23- to 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts late Sunday evening into early Monday morning, then gradually diminishing.

***

12:15 p.m. Tuesday, June 22, Guam time: All tropical storm watches and warnings have been canceled, closest points of approach to Guam has come and gone and now, Tropical Depression 06W is making its way northwest into the Philippine Sea, its ultimate fate yet to be determined.

At 10 a.m., 06W was 95 miles west of Guam and 135 miles west-southwest of Rota, moving northwest at 14 mph, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 06W keeps on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep moving northwest, peaking at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at mid-morning Friday, passing 119 miles west-northwest of Iwo Jima at 3 a.m. Saturday, then diminish as it arcs northeast.

Unless it intensifies drastically or other changes occur, this should be Storm Tracker’s final report on 06W.

***

UPDATED 11 a.m. Tuesday, June 22, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam and the tropical storm watch for Rota have been canceled by the National Weather Service.

***

7 a.m. Tuesday, June 22, Guam time: Little change at this point for 06W, which remains on course to pass just southwest of Guam in the next few hours, holding steady as a tropical depression. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast 06W to slowly intensify into a tropical storm once it’s made its way northwest of Guam.

At 4 a.m., 06W was 53 miles south-southwest of Guam’s capital of Hagatna and 115 miles south-southwest of Rota, moving northwest at 10 mph, still holding at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph, according to JTWC and the National Weather Service on Guam.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and a tropical storm watch for Rota, NWS reported at 5 a.m. U.S. bases on island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas. 06W is making its closest point of approach to the island, 71 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 48 miles southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy” as of this report.

***

Midnight Monday, June 21, Guam time: Although Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast keeps 06W as a tropical depression through mid-morning Tuesday, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and a tropical storm watch for Rota as issued by the National Weather Service.

At 10 p.m., Tropical Depression 06W was about 100 miles south-southeast of Guam and 140 miles south of Rota, moving west-northwest at 13 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts, as reported by JTWC and NWS.

U.S. bases on Guam remained in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas; it advised military living both on and off base to keep an eye on any TCCOR changes and also keep their yards and areas around their dwellings free of debris.

JTWC projects 06W to maintain 35-mph sustained winds as it passes 75 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 55 miles southwest of the island’s capital of Hagatna and Naval Base “Big Navy” between 3 and 5 a.m. Tuesday.

Once past Guam, JTWC forecasts 06W to reach tropical-storm strength, peaking at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at mid-evening Thursday, well northwest of Guam.

The latest forecast track takes 06W northwest, then north, passing 116 miles west-northwest of Iwo Jima at mid-evening Friday, then swerving northeast, passing 266 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

***

6 p.m. Monday, June 21, Guam time: A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and a tropical storm watch for Rota in advance of Tropical Depression 06W, according to the National Weather Service. Damaging winds of 39 mph or greater are possible for both Tuesday morning.

At 4 p.m., 06W was 165 miles southeast of Guam and 180 south-southeast of Rota, NWS reported, and 1,576 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

JTWC projects 06W to pass 58 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base, 37 southwest of the island capital of Hagatna and 36 southwest of Naval Base Guam “Big Navy” between 4 and 6 a.m. Tuesday, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

Long term, 06W is forecast to peak only at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday, and well over open water, far from any significant land masses.

JTWC forecasts 06W track northwest in the short term, then arc north to northeast as the weekend approaches, passing 97 miles west of Iwo Jima at midnight Friday, still packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts. Forecast model ensembles agree generally with the JTWC forecast track, with some outliers.

If 06W becomes a named storm, it would be called Champi, which is Laotian for red jasmine flower.

***

3 p.m. Monday, June 21, Guam time: A tropical storm warning is in effect for Guam and a tropical storm watch for Rota as of 1 p.m. Monday, as issued by the National Weather Service in advance of Tropical Depression 06W.

At 1 p.m., 06W was about 200 miles southeast of Guam, moving west-northwest at 12 mph with 35-mph sustained winds at center.

Guam can expect sustained 15- to 25-mph winds and 35-mph gusts Monday evening, increasing to 20- to 30-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts Tuesday, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense. Stronger winds are expected along the southern coast, just offshore of Merizo and southern Guam.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects closest points of approach for Guam to be 47 miles southwest of the island capital of Hagatna, 67 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and 43 miles southwest of Naval Base Guam “Big Navy” between 5 and 7 a.m. Tuesday.

***

12:30 p.m. Monday, June 21, Guam time: Say hello to the sixth numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific’s typhoon season.

Tropical Depression 06W spawned overnight Sunday. At 10 a.m., 06W was 232 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and 1,653 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 12 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement regarding 06W, as has the Guam Homeland Security/Office of National Defense.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the moment forecasts 06W to pass 44 miles southwest of Naval Base Guam “Big Navy” and 67 miles southwest of Andersen between 6 and 7 a.m. Tuesday, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects Guam to be at the edge of 06W’s forecast 34-knot wind band.

From there, JTWC projects 06W to arc north-northwest, peaking at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday, well away from land, passing 131 miles west of Iwo Jima early Saturday morning.

Okinawa and, for the moment, Japan’s main islands appear to be well out of harm’s way. More to come.

***

11 p.m. Sunday, June 20, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for a disturbance labeled 94W Invest.

At 10 p.m., 94W was 351 miles southeast of Guam, moving west-northwest at 15 mph. JTWC reports that 94W is in a favorable environment for development and models agree that it will move west-northwest and consolidate over the next day to 1½ days, remaining a tropical depression as it curves southwest of Guam before turning north.

No watches or warnings have been issued for Guam or the Northern Marianas as of late Sunday evening, according to the National Weather Service. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. More to come once a forecast track becomes available.

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