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6 p.m. Friday, April 23, Japan time: Typhoon Surigae is barely clinging to Category 1-equivalent status.

Time of closest point of approach to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, has come and gone, 262 miles south-southeast at mid-afternoon, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa for the moment remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as a precaution. Okinawa can expect a few more hours of strong east-northeast winds, but Surigae is nearing its end as a potential threat to the island.

Barring any unforeseen change, this should be Storm Tracker’s final report on Surigae.

7:30 a.m. Friday, April 23, Japan time: Surigae has been downgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon and remains on track to pass 267 miles south-southeast of Okinawa at about 6 p.m. Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 3 a.m., Surigae was 347 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving east-northeast at 13 mph, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Kadena's extended forecast calls for light to moderate showers with easterly winds peaking at 28-mph sustained and 43-mph gusts Friday evening as Surigae passes.Midnight Thursday, April 22, Japan time: Typhoon Surigae continues to weaken, but remains a Category 2-equivalent system. It's curving northeast and picking up forward speed as it keeps diminishing, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The latest JTWC forecast track takes it 277 miles south-southeast of Okinawa just before sunset Friday, either as a weak Category 1-equivalent typhoon or a severe tropical storm. It keeps unraveling as it encounters high vertical wind shear and cooler ocean and sea-surface temperatures. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 408 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, churning northeast at 11 mph, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at storm's center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. All Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals in the Philippines have been canceled, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep losing its punch as it trudges northeast, then curving east to southeast late Friday evening. Surigae is forecast to remain a Category 1-equivalent typhoon (forecast of 86-mph sustained winds) at mid-morning Friday, then diminish to a tropical storm at mid-evening Friday (forecast of 69-mph sustained winds) as it passes Okinawa. Again, that's at storm's center, well away from Okinawa. Kadena's extended forecast continues to call for 70-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday evening, with easterly winds peaking at 28-mph sustained and 43-mph gusts overnight.More later Friday morning.7 p.m. Thursday, April 22, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch at 7 p.m. Thursday, in advance of Typhoon Surigae. It's a precautionary measure, as weather flight officials said in an email Thursday that winds are forecast to peak at 23-mph sustained and 35-mph gusts on Friday. Surigae remains forecast to pass 275 miles south-southeast of Okinawa at 5 p.m. Friday.

6:30 p.m. Thursday, April 22, Japan time: Surigae has weakened to a Category 2-equivalent typhoon and has begun turning northeast, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Its latest forecast track takes it 275 miles south-southeast of Okinawa late Friday afternoon. At 3 p.m., Surigae was 457 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northeast at 8 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. If Surigae stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving northeast for the next day or so, steadily weakening to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by Friday, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center as it passes 275 miles south-southeast of Kadena. A tad closer, but not that much closer. Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for light showers Friday morning, then a 70-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, with easterly winds peaking at 28-mph sustained and 43-mph gusts.6:15 a.m. Thursday, April 22, Japan time: Surigae continues to weaken but remains a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, edging away from the Philippines. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to curve northeast and pass nearly 300 miles south of Okinawa at mid-afternoon Friday. At 3 a.m., Surigae was 516 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base and 409 miles northeast of Manila, tracking north-northeast at 6 mph packing 121-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. In the Philippines, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 remains raised for the Babuyan and Batanes islands, eastern Cagayan and northeastern Isabela in Luzon, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae remains on present course, JTWC projects it to arc northeast over the next 30-plus hours, passing 290 miles south of Kadena at about 3 p.m. Friday as a Category 1-equivalent storm, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts. But that's at storm's center. Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for a 50- to 70-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through Friday, with easterly winds peaking at 28-mph sustained and 43-mph gusts into Saturday. More to come around mid-day Friday.11:30 p.m. Wednesday, April 21, Japan time: Surigae has been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep weakening as it curves east, passing some 300 miles south of Okinawa late Friday afternoon. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 388 miles northeast of Metro Manila and 552 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north at 8 mph packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 remains raised for Batanes, east Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands and east Isabela in northeast Luzon, according to the Philippines' weather authority PAGASA. JTWC projects Suribae to turn east around the axis of a steering ridge in the coming hours, pick up forward speed, weaken gradually as it moves and pass 302 miles south of Kadena at 4 p.m. Friday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. But that's at storm's center. Well away from Okinawa. Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for 50- to 70-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through Friday, with easterly winds, peaking at 28-mph sustained and gusts up to 43 mph Saturday. 1:30 p.m. Wednesday, April 21, Japan time: Little change to previous report. Surigae remains a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, buzzing the east coast of Luzon in the Philippines and forecast to curve east, passing more than 350 miles southeast of Okinawa late Friday afternoon. At 9 a.m., Surigae was 339 miles northeast of Manila, moving northwest at 6 mph, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167 miles at center. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 has been canceled, while TCWS 1 remains raised for eastern portions of Luzon, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. Surigae (named Bising by PASASA) remains a significant rain event; continue to be vigilant of low-level flooding and possible landslides. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Surigae to hook sharply east once past the northern edges of Luzon, pick up forward speed, steadily weaken and pass 352 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base at about 5 p.m. Friday as a Category 1-equivalent cyclone. More at midnight Wednesday.11:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 20, Japan time: Surigae continues to cling to life as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, having strengthened slightly over the last 12 hours. It remains forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to keep skirting the Philippines' east coast before turning sharply east-northeast and passing well southeast of Okinawa early Friday evening. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 351 miles east-northeast of Metro Manila and 682 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north at 7 mph, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains in effect for eastern portions of Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora on Luzon, the Philippines' northernmost island, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae (called Bising by PAGASA) stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving north and northwest the next two days, passing 348 miles east of Manila and Clark International Airport and 385 east of Subic Bay Free Port between 7 and 11 a.m. Wednesday. Once past Luzon's northern edge, JTWC forecasts Surigae to hook sharply east-northeast, pick up forward speed, weaken as it goes and pass 329 miles south-southeast of Kadena at 7 p.m. Friday, a few hours earlier than previously reported and possibly still as a Category 1-equivalent cyclone. More to follow Wednesday morning.1:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 20, Japan time: Surigae continues to crawl slowly north-northwest and remains a Category 4-equivalent typhoon. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast a curve east-northeast and a track well southeast of Okinawa late Friday evening. At 9 a.m., Surigae was 351 miles east of Metro Manila, crawling north-northwest at 4 mph, still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at storm's center.Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for Catanduanes and the east portions of Cagayan and Isabele on Luzon in the Philippines, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae (called Bising by PAGASA) stays on present course, JTWC projects it to keep moving north-northwest, passing 334 miles east of Manila, 374 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 337 east of Clark International Airport, weakening as it goes. Once past the north edge of Luzon, JTWC forecasts Surigae to make a sharp turn and head east-northeast, picking up forward speed and steadily weakening as it passes 342 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, further south than previously reported, at about 10 p.m. Friday. More to come late this evening.6 a.m. Tuesday, April 20, Japan time: Again, not much change to previous report. Surigae is barely hanging on to Category 4-equivalent typhoon status, but remains a vicious beast as it continues buzzing the east coast of the Philippines. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to forecast a sharp east-northeast turn early Thursday, with Surigae passing well south-southeast of Okinawa early Saturday morning. At 3 a.m. Surigae was 355 miles east of Metro Manila and 782 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at 4 mph, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for Catanduanes, eastern Camarines Sur, eastern Albay and northeast Sorsogon in Luzon and northernmost Samar in Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae (named Bising by PAGASA) stays on present course, JTWC projects it to keep moving north-northwest the next couple of days, passing 327 miles east of Manila, 366 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 329 east of Clark International Airport between 8 a.m. and noon Wednesday Philippines time. Once past Luzon's northern edge, JTWC forecasts Surigae to make a sharp right turn east-northeast, pick up forward speed, weaken all the way and pass 314 miles south-southeast of Kadena at about 1 a.m. Saturday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at storm's center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Kadena's long-range weather forecast calls for easterly winds gradually ramping up through the rest of the week, peaking at 30-mph sustained winds and 45-mph gusts Saturday morning. More to come at mid-day Tuesday.Midnight Monday, April 19, Japan time: Little change to the previous report. Surigae remains a powerful Category 4-equivalent typhoon, still skirting the east coast of the Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Surigae remains on track to pass well southeast of Okinawa, but now early Saturday morning. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 347 miles east of Metro Manila and 799 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at just 3 mph and had weakened to 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts. Still a mean beast. But it's also forecast to remain well east of Luzon, just grazing the northeast coast of the Philippines' northernmost main island. That doesn't mean the Philippines is out of the woods as far as tropical storm conditions go. The Associated Press reports at least one dead and more than 100,000 displaced by Surigae. The storm's rain and wind bands stretch out a good 560 miles, according to The AP.Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for northern Samar and eastern coastal parts of the Bicol region, and TCWS 1 elsewhere in Luzon and Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA, which calls Surigae Bising. JTWC projects Surigae to pass 311 miles east of Manila, 348 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 312 east of Clark International Airport between 7 a.m. and 3 p.m. Wednesday. Once past the northern edge of Luzon, JTWC forecasts Surigae to sharply curve northeast, pick up forward speed and weaken as it passes 317 miles southeast of Kadena at about 4 a.m. Saturday, still packing Category 1-equivalent winds, but well away from the island. Model solutions continue to come into better agreement, JTWC reports: 199 miles two days out, 133 miles five days out. More to come by mid-day Tuesday.6 p.m. Monday, April 19, Japan time: Surigae keeps living on as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, and has even strengthened slightly to just below the super-typhoon threshold. But that life may be short-lived, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's current forecast holds. Surigae is due to keep moving north-northwest, then make a sharp turn northeast, passing well to Okinawa's southeast later this week. At 3 p.m., Surigae was 354 miles east of Metro Manila and 819 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling north-northwest at 6 mph, still packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts, and still buzzing the Philippines' east coast. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for eastern parts of Luzon and Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae (named Bising by PAGASA) continues on present heading, JTWC projects it to gradually weaken as it moves north-northwest, passing 306 miles east of Manila, 346 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 311 east of Clark International Airport between 2 and 6 a.m. Wednesday. Once past the north edges of Luzon, JTWC forecasts Surigae to make a sharp turn northeast, picking up forward speed and passing 307 miles south-southeast of Kadena at 11 p.m. Friday, still packing Category 1-equivalent force, but at storm's center. Model solutions are coming into much better agreement, JTWC reports: 139 miles two days out, just 90 miles three days out and 200 five days out. More to come around midnight.5:10 a.m. Monday, April 19, Philippines time: Surigae continues to gradually weaken as it crawls north, but remains a dangerous Category 4-equivalent typhoon skirting the east coast of the Philippines. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track continues to take Surigae well southeast of Okinawa as a Category 1-equivalent storm, a few miles closer than previously reported, but still a long way away. At 2 a.m., Surigae was 370 miles east of Metro Manila and 857 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving slowly northwest at 6 mph packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm's center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for portions of East Luzon and Samar in Visayas in the Philippines and TCWS 1 elsewhere, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae continues on present course, JTWC projects it to keep grazing the Philippines' east coast, passing 309 miles east of Manila, 348 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 312 east of Clark International Airport. A bit closer, but not that much closer than previously reported. Once past Luzon's northern edges, JTWC forecasts Surigae to make a sharp right turn northeast, picking up forward speed and passing 304 miles south-southeast of Kadena at about 10 p.m. Friday, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at storm's center. There remains a spread among model solutions, JTWC reports: 179 miles three days out and 230 miles five days out. Still a vast spread, but not as vast as reported the past few days. More to come at sundown Monday.11 p.m. Sunday, April 18, Philippines time: Surigae has been downgraded to a regular typhoon, but remains a dangerous Category 4-equivalent cyclone. Long-range projections still call for Surigae to pass well southeast of Okinawa early Friday evening. At 8 p.m., Surigae was 882 miles south of Kadena Air Base and 394 miles east of Metro Manila, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, still packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center.Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for Samar in Visayas and Catanduanes in southern Luzon in the Philippines and TCWS 1 elsewhere, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae remains on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep weakening as it heads north-northwest, passing 330 miles east of Manila, 375 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 342 east of Clark International Airport between 5 p.m. and midnight Tuesday. Once past the northern edge of Luzon, JTWC forecasts Surigae to make a sharp right turn northeast, eventually passing 337 miles south-southeast of Kadena at 6 p.m. Friday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.JTWC reports cross-track spread among model solutions remains, though not as vast as previouly reported: 192 miles three days out and 171 miles five days out. It could edge closer or further away from Okinawa. It remains to be seen. Stay tuned. More to come at mid-day Monday.5:45 p.m. Sunday, April 18, Japan time: Surigae continues to dial back the intensity, but remains a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, passing along the east coast of the Philippines. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Surigae to curve northeast after leaving the Philippines and pass more than 330 miles south-southeast of Okinawa at mid-day Thursday. At 3 p.m., Surigae was 422 miles east of Metro Manila and 886 miles south of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 7 mph, still packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for Samar and Catanduanes in the Philippines, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to pass 348 miles east of Manila, 394 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 361 east of Clark International Airport between noon and 6 p.m. Tuesday. Surigae remains forecast to curve northeast once moving north of Luzon. JTWC's forecast track calls for Surigae to pass 337 miles south-southeast of Kadena at 1 p.m. Thursday, retaining Category 1-equivalent 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at storm's center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Cross-track spread among model solutions is diminishing, according to JTWC, now down to 202 miles three days out and just 150 five days out. Still, much can change in five days' time. Stay tuned.12:30 p.m. Sunday, April 18, Japan time: Super Typhoon Surigae has weakened somewhat, but remains a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, forecast to curve northeast, steadily weakening as it passes well south of Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 9 a.m., Surigae was 907 miles south of Kadena Air Base, rumbling northwest at 11 mph, packing 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts, still a fierce and powerful beast. If Surigae continues on its current course, JTWC projects it to graze the eastern edges of Samar Island in the Philippines, then pass 351 miles east of Manila, 393 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 358 east of Clark International Airport, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 remains raised for Catanduanes in Luzon and Samar, according to the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA. Once past the northern edge of Luzon, Surigae is forecast to hook northeast, continuing to weaken as it heads over cooler waters, passing 334 miles south-southeast of Kadena at mid-morning Thursday. JTWC continues to report a spread among model solutions, 201 miles three days out and 378 miles five days out. Vast, but not as vast as before. More to come.6:15 a.m. Sunday, April 18, Japan time: Just when you thought Super Typhoon Surigae couldn't get any stronger ... well ... it did. It's becoming the fourth super storm to affect the Pacific region in the last 5 1/2 months, joining Super Typhoon Goni in October-November in the Philippines, and Severe Tropical Cyclones Narin and Yasa in the South Pacific, each of which reached Category 5-equivalent intensity. At 3 a.m., Surigae was 943 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 515 miles east-southeast of Metro Manila, moving northwest at 12 mph, packing 190-mph sustained winds and 230-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 is in effect for Catanduanes in Luzon and Samar Island in Visayas in the Philippines and TCWS 1 for other areas of the country, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. If Surigae stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to gradually weaken as it moves northwest, passing 336 miles east of Manila, 382 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 348 east of Clark International Airport. Surigae is forecast to weaken to 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it passes the northern edges of Luzon, then curves northeast. JTWC forecasts Surigae to be 373 miles south of Kadena early Thursday morning, a rather fair distance.JTWC still reports a spread among model solutions, of 207 miles three days out and 489 miles five days out. The GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles generally agree on a northeast curve; just a question of how close it might come to Luzon before that. Stay tuned.11:05 p.m. Saturday, April 17, Japan time: Wow. Just wow. In just under two days' time, Surigae has increased in intensity by nearly 300 percent, from a severe tropical storm early Friday to the first Category 5-equivalent super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season as we approach Sunday. As Friday dawned, Surigae was packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. But now ... wow. At 9 p.m., Surigae was packing 178-mph sustained winds and 219-mph gusts at center, moving northwest at 13 mph, 988 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles outward from Surigae's center and tropical storm-force winds 200 miles outward, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. If Surigae stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to keep moving northwest or north-northwest over the next four days, with its outer bands grazing the east coast of Samar Island in the Philippines. JTWC forecasts Surigae to gradually weaken as it keeps moving north-northwest, passing 342 miles east of Metro Manila, 388 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 355 east of Clark International Airport. Once past the northern edge of Luzon, JTWC projects Surigae to weaken to 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, still a powerful Category 2-equivalent storm, and keep weakening as it hurtles northeast. At the end of the current five-day JTWC forecast, Surigae would be 389 miles south of Kadena. GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles agree on a track taking Surigae well southeast of Okinawa.JTWC still reports a spread in model solutions, 214 miles three days out and 508 miles five days out, so there's still some room for variation. Still, the only thing certain is uncertainty. Stay tuned.5:20 p.m. Saturday, April 17, Japan time: In just about one day's time, Surigae has blossomed from run-of-the-mill tropical storm into the northwest Pacific's first super typhoon of the season. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track and forecast ensembles depict continued northwest movement for the next day or so, before curving northeast, and swinging well southeast of Okinawa in the next five or six days. At 3 p.m., Surigae was 1,040 miles south of Kadena Air Base, rumbling northwest at 13 mph, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent intensity. JTWC projects Surigae to peak at 155-mph sustained and 190-mph gusts early Sunday morning. If Surigae remains on present heading, JTWC forecasts it to graze the east coast of Samar Island in the Philippines before curving north, passing 337 miles east of Metro Manila, 384 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 350 east of Clark International Airport. JTWC still reports a vast spread among model solutions, though not as vast as previously reported: 236 miles three days out and 477 five days out. The GFS, ECMWF and CMC forecast ensembles generally agree on a northeast curve in the next couple of days, though ECMWF continues to depict a track close to Luzon, but not over land as previously reported. Still much uncertainty. Stay tuned.6:20 a.m. Saturday, April 17, Japan time: Overnight, Surigae has mushroomed into a Category 4-equivalent typhoon. Question remains whether Surigae might pass over or east of the Philippines; model solutions remain quite divided. At 3 a.m., Surigae was 1,163 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 890 miles west-southwest of Guam, moving west-northwest at 11 mph, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Kayangel and a tropical storm warning for Koror in Palau, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Typhoon-strength winds extend 45 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 185 miles south and 125 miles north of center. If Surigae remains on its present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to peak at just below super-typhoon strength, 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts early Sunday morning. JTWC forecasts Surigae to move northwest for two day, its outer bands grazing the east coast of Samar Island in the Philippines, then curve north, passing 340 miles east of Metro Manila, 390 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 360 east of Clark International Airport, weakening slightly as it moves north. Though all forecast ensembles agree in general on a curve northeast after passing the Philippines, there remains a vast spread among solutions. JTWC reports a cross-track spread of 615 miles five days out. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles best tracks depict a curve off the Philippines' east coast; the ECMWF ensemble favors a track over Luzon, then a curve northeast. At the moment, no way to tell how close Surigae might come to Okinawa. More to come.12:15 a.m. Saturday, April 17, Japan time: Typhoon Surigae continues strengthening, having reached Category 2-equivalent intensity as of mid-evening Friday. It continues moving northwest and remains forecast to curve north and northeast. But the spread among model solutions long-term is quite vast, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 1,220 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa; 152 miles northwest of Kayangel, Palau; and 978 miles west-southwest of Guam, moving west-northwest at 9 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Kayangel and a tropical storm warning for Koror in Palau, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. If Surigae stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving northwest the next couple of days, the western outer bands grazing the east coast of Samar Island in the Philippines. JTWC forecasts Surigae to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent intensity, as it passes Samar and turns north, then pass 358 miles east of Metro Manila, 409 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 381 east of Clark International Airport between noon and 4 p.m. Tuesday local time. But oh, the spread among model solutions. JTWC reports the cross-track spread to be 334 miles three days out and 713 miles five days out. And the forecast ensembles are likewise divergent. The GFS, UKMET and CMC ensembles' best tracks reflect the JTWC forecast track; not so the ECMWF ensemble, which shows Surigae tracking directly southeast to northwest over Luzon. Thus, the only thing certain remains uncertainty. Still doesn't appear as though Surigae may threaten Okinawa, but that could change, of course. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. More in the morning.6:10 a.m. Friday, April 16, Japan time: Surigae has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the first typhoon of the northwest Pacific season. While Palau continues to get pounded, major land masses should remain well out of harm's way as Surigae moves northwest, then curve northeast once past the Philippines and split the vast difference between Guam and Japan. At 3 a.m., Surigae was 1,318 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-southwest at 6 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. A typhoon warning is in effect for Kayangel and a tropical storm warning for Koror in Palau, according to the National Weather Service office in Guam. If Surigae continues on its present course, JTWC projects it to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at about 3 a.m. Monday as it arcs well east of the Philippines, its outer bands grazing Samar Island. JTWC forecasts Surigae to pass 403 miles east of Metro Manila, 458 miles east of Subic Bay Free Port and 434 miles east of Clark International Airport between 10 a.m. and noon Monday Philippines time. From there, Surigae is forecast to move northeast, gradually losing its punch. JTWC reports a cross-track spread among solutions of 207 miles three days out and 334 miles five days out. More to come later Friday.12:20 a.m. Friday, April 16, Japan time: Tropical Storm Surigaecontinues to strengthen and, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's projections hold, could become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by mid-morning Friday. But Surigae's forecast track continues to show it moving well away from any significant land masses, other than Yap and Palau, which have taken their share of wind and rain thus far as Surigae continues moving northwest. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 1,310 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 7 mph and has strengthened to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. If Surigae stays on present course, JTWC projects it to keep moving northwest, peaking at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at mid-evening Sunday, Category 4-equivalent winds. JTWC forecasts Surigae to pass 385 miles east of Metro Manila, 438 east of Subic Bay Free Port and 412 east of Clark International Airport in Luzon between 2 and 5 p.m. Monday, then curve northeast, splitting the vast difference between Okinawa and Guam. There remains a spread among model solutions of 196 miles three days out and 518 miles five days out, according to JTWC. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles also depict northwest movement followed by a sharp hook northeast at the start of next week. More to follow at mid-day Friday.Noon Thursday, April 15, Japan time: While Tropical Storm Surigae continues to strength and is projected to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, it remains forecast to stay well away from land, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 9 a.m., Surigae was 1,326 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving northwest at 5 mph and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects Surigae to reach Category 1-equivalent strength in the next day or so. If Surigae remains on its present course, JTWC projects it to peak at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at mid-morning Monday, passing 427 miles east of Metro Manila at about 6 a.m. Monday local time. JTWC continues to report a spread in model solutions, 150 miles three days out and 288 five days out. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles continue to agree on a northwest track followed by a northeast curve. More later Thursday evening.11:30 p.m. Wednesday, April 14, Japan time: Little change since last report. Tropical Storm Surigae is still forecast to travel northwest over the next few days, then curve northeast late Monday and remain well away from land, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 9 p.m., Surigae was 1,265 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, crawling northwest at 4 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. If Surigae continues moving as forecast, JTWC projects it to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent intensity, at mid-evening Sunday, then weaken slightly as it curves northeast.JTWC reports a spread in model solutions of 150 miles three days out and 414 miles five days out. The GFS, CMC, ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles continue to generally agree on northwest track followed by northeast curve. More at mid-day Thursday.Noon Wednesday, April 14, Japan time: Surigae has been upgraded to a tropical storm and remains forecast to pass well away from any significant land masses, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Meanwhile, U.S. bases have entered seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, several weeks before the nominal start of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season, June 1. That's as a precaution, as the weather is getting warmer and Okinawa does lie in that area where tropical cyclones tend to form. It's not time to panic regarding Tropical Storm Surigae, but time to prepare for what might come down the road, 18th Wing Weather Flight officials say. "At this time, we're not expecting any direct impacts to Kadena (Air Base)" from Tropical Storm Surigae, Weather Flight commander Capt. Veronica J. Arnold said. "But transitioning to TCCOR 4 will get people thinking about typhoons again, and get everyone to brush off their checklists. At 9 a.m. Japan time: Surigae was 1,388 miles south-southeast of Kadena, moving northwest at 4 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects Surigae to continue moving northwest for the next four days, then curve north and peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at mid-morning Monday, remaining well away from land. There does remain a spread among model solutions, JTWC reports, 173 miles three days out and 345 miles five days out. In general, the GFS, CMC, ECMWF and UKMET forecast ensembles indicate a continued northwest track, then a curve northeast, well to Okinawa's southeast. Stay tuned; more to come.12:30 a.m. Wednesday, April 14, Guam time: The second numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific season has spawned southwest of Yap late Tuesday evening. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Tropical Depression 02W to track northwest in the coming days, remaining well away from any substantial land mass but reaching Category 4-equivalent intensity by mid-evening Sunday. At 10 p.m., 02W was 627 miles southwest of Guam and 1,416 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving northwest at 7 mph. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, and TCCOR All-Clear on Okinawa, and assuming 02W moves and intensifies as forecast, both areas should remain well out of harm's way. It's early in the game, but forecast ensembles continue to mirror projected tracks as was the case when 02W was disturbance 94W Invest. The GFS, CMC, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles each indicate northwest tracks in the short term, followed by northeast curves further out, staying well off the Philippines coast and well southeast of Okinawa, if the forecast tracks hold. Still, JTWC reports a spread of about 180 miles three days out and more than 550 miles five days out among model solutions. More to come.10 p.m. Monday, April 12, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on disturbance 94W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 9:30 p.m., 94W was 561 miles south-southwest of Guam. The GFS, ECMWF and CMC forecast ensembles remain all over the lot, but generally agree on a northwest track, followed by a curve northeast; just a question of how soon the curve would come, and where. Much more will be known once 94W consolidates into a tropical cyclone and a forecast track becomes available.8 p.m. Monday, April 12, Guam time: It's still a solid guessing game what disturbance 94W Invest might do in the short and long term, as model solutions remain all over the lot. At 7:30 p.m., 94W was about 560 miles south-southwest of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and about 1,670 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to identify 94W as a "medium" area for formation of a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. That could change, but at what point, hard to say. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and TCCOR All Clear on Okinawa. The GFS forecast ensemble's best track indicates a zig-zag walk northwest, then a turn northeast, passing west of the Marianas Islands. The CMC ensemble also shows a northeast turn, but much closer to the Philippines, as does the ECMWF ensemble. As has been the case the last couple of days, the most certain thing at this point is uncertainty. Storm Tracker continues to have the watch.9 p.m. Sunday, April 11, Guam time: 94W Invest remains well south of Guam and Okinawa, and model solutions continue to depict a track northwest in the coming days. How strong it might become, whether it reaches the Philippines or curves northeast before that, remains to be seen. At 4 p.m., 94W was 530 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base and 1,806 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and had crawled slightly north in the past 24 hours. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and TCCOR All Clear on Okinawa. The GFS forecast ensemble continues to show 94W solutions all over the lot. Same with the Europe and UK ensembles. Yes, a track northwest followed by a curve northeast. But where might it curve, if it does at all? And how strong might 94W be? Once more, way too early to tell. Storm Tracker has the watch.1:25 a.m. Sunday, April 11, Guam time: It's fairly clear that 94W Invest is projected to head northwest. But which way specifically, and how close it might come to the Marianas, remains a question mark. At 10 p.m., 94W was 715 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and 1,955 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 11:30 p.m. designated 94W as a "low" area, meaning chances for development into an actual tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The GFS forecast ensemble remains all over the lot as far as solutions go. Best track continues to show a zig-zag walk north, but well southwest of Guam and the Marianas. The Europe and UK ensembles continue to show a more direct northwest run. U.S. bases on Guam remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, while U.S. bases on Okinawa, well northwest of 94W, remain in TCCOR All Clear. Again, it is way too early to tell which way 94W might definitively go. A guessing game at this point. Stay tuned.7:15 p.m. Saturday, April 10, Guam time: There is a tropical low lurking about 700 miles south of Guam, labeled 94W Invest.

For those new to the area, the hyperlinked images are a big reason the stateside meteorologists refer to them as "spaghetti models." For the solutions at the moment are all over the place.

As far as whether it might affect Guam or other parts, it is far too early to tell. Way too early. If it in fact does affect anybody.

For the moment, the Global Forecast System (GFS)'s best track indicates a zig-zag walk generally northbound just west of Guam and the Marianas islands.

Other forecast models, such as the Europe model, indicate a more northwesterly track away from the Marianas toward the Philippines.

That's why it's too early to draw any conclusions. 94W has only been on the map for a day. A wait-and-see game for the moment.

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