Two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers fly over the Senkaku Islands alongside a Japanese F-15 fighter, Aug. 15, 2017. (U.S. Air Force)
YOKOSUKA, Japan — Tokyo is unlikely to provide direct military support in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and would instead focus on defending its nearby outlying islands, a foreign policy expert said.
China and Japan have long disputed the Senkaku Islands — uninhabited islets east of Taiwan and west of Okinawa that total 2.4 square miles. Japan administers the islands and is expected to prioritize their defense if China moves against Taiwan, said Paul Midford, a professor of international studies at Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo.
Midford — speaking Wednesday at a seminar for the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, or YCAPS — pushed back on the notion that Japan has committed to defending Taiwan directly.
“There’s been open political debate about the importance of Taiwan for Japanese security, beginning in 2021, but there’s been no real debate about Japan itself defending Taiwan,” he said during the event at Yokosuka City Industrial Exchange Plaza.
YCAPS is a nonprofit that promotes the study of strategic, diplomatic and legal issues affecting the region.
Midford pointed to a lack of public support and the absence of explicit commitments in government documents, including Japan’s National Security Strategy.
A May 2023 poll by the Asahi Shimbun found that just 11% of almost 2,000 respondents supported direct military support for Taiwan. In contrast, 56% favored limited “rearguard support” for U.S. forces.
China views Taiwan — a self-governing democracy — as a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify it with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Beijing regularly sends warplanes and naval vessels across the Taiwan Strait — the 110-mile channel that separates Taiwan from the mainland — and has carried out large-scale military exercises simulating an invasion, notably in 2023 and 2021.
In a statement to Congress in March 2024, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. John Aquilino, said all indications suggest the Chinese military could be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
More recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a March 19 radio interview with Hugh Hewitt that the United States has consistently opposed any changes to Taiwan’s status “by force or by extortion,” according to a State Department transcript.
Midford acknowledged that “war is unpredictable,” but said it’s unlikely Japan would be drawn into directly defending Taiwan in a conflict.
“What I can say with confidence is that Japan is not preparing for that,” he said.
Instead, he said the more plausible scenario would involve limited counterstrikes against Chinese bases if they were to attack U.S. installations in Japan to “reestablish deterrence,” along with defense of the Senkakus and other territories.
Midford pointed to the 3rd Regiment of Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade — designed to protect remote islands — and the Japan coast guard in the region as evidence of Japan’s priorities.
The Senkakus, also claimed by China and Taiwan, lie near key shipping lanes and are surrounded by rich fishing grounds. They may also contain valuable resources such as oil and natural gas, according to the CIA World Factbook’s website.
