Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a hearing before Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at Dirksen Senate Office Building on June 22, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Alex Wong, Getty Images/TNS)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers will wait for clearer signs of lower inflation before cutting interest rates, even though a recent bump in prices didn’t alter their broader trajectory.
Powell said recent inflation figures — though higher than expected — did not “materially change” the overall picture. He reiterated his expectation that it will likely be appropriate to begin lowering rates “at some point this year.”
“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said Wednesday in the text of a speech at Stanford University in California. “We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%.”
The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady last month. Officials narrowly maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts this year, even as key inflation metrics have picked up in 2024. Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly said they are in no hurry to cut rates, and that their moves will depend on incoming data.
As Chair Powell answered questions following his opening remarks, Treasury yields reversed or pared earlier gains. The S&P 500 remained higher. Investors are putting roughly even odds on an initial cut in June, and pricing suggests they see a chance of fewer than three reductions this year, according to futures.
“Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy,” Powell said in the opening remarks ahead of a fireside chat. “If the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year.”
Powell’s prepared remarks reinforce those he’s made following the March meeting. They also suggest that the Fed is unlikely to reduce rates at their next gathering taking place April 30-May 1.
Inflation gauge
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation cooled in February after an even larger increase than previously reported in January, government data released Friday showed. Even so, the back-to-back increases in the core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — were the biggest in a year.
Powell said last month that an unexpected weakening in the labor market could warrant a policy response from Fed officials. The Fed will get another update on the health of the job market Friday with the release of the monthly employment report, which is expected to show a gain of 213,000 jobs in March.
Fed officials in March were split on how aggressive rate cuts will be this year. The central bank’s “dot plot” showed 10 officials forecast three or more quarter-point cuts this year, while nine anticipated two or fewer.
The Fed chair also used part of his speech to emphasize that the central bank makes its decisions independent from politics. Powell added that he feels it is improper for him to weigh in on other public policy issues, like climate change policies.
“Our analysis is free from any personal or political bias, in service to the public,” he said. “We will not always get it right — no one does. But our decisions will always reflect our painstaking assessment of what is best for our economy in the medium and longer term — and nothing else.”
With assistance from Liz Capo McCormick.
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