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Tropical Depression 32W (Kai-tak), # 16 FINAL

Kai-tak continues charging west-southwest; Signal 1 remains raised over Palawan.

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By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: December 13, 2017

5:15 p.m. Monday, Dec. 17, Philippines time: Tropical Depression Kai-tak is back over water in the South China Sea, where it is forecast to die out over the next day or so by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

97W Invest was also downgraded by JTWC from a "medium" to a "low" area, meaning chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours are considered low.

This is PST's final update on Kai-tak and perhaps 97W as well. PST will keep a lookout in case 97W does regenerate.




10:45 a.m. Monday, Dec. 17, Philippines time: The news keeps improving for the Philippines:  Kai-tak has made landfall over Palawan and should remain a minimal tropical depression as it moves ouf of the area. And 97W Invest has been downgraded to a low-pressure area well southeast of the Philippines.

At 8 a.m., Kai-tak was 86 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island, moving west-southwest at 9 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts. Heavy rain continues to be associated with Kai-tak; Palawan residents are advised to keep watch for flooding and landslides.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 remains raised for Palawan, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. That should change relatively soon as Kai-tak makes its way into the South China Sea.

As for 97W, it was just over 1,000 miles east of Mindanao and headed west-northwest, though model guidance at this point doesn't show it developing into much. Still, anything can happen. PST will keep watch on 97W.


7:30 a.m. Monday, Dec. 17, Philippines time: Kai-tak continues heading rapidly west-southwest and is making landfall over northern Palawan. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 is raised for Palawan, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/tropical-cyclones/weather-bulletins Kai-tak is forecast to keep moving west and dissipate as a tropical depression over the South China Sea.


5 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 17, Philippines time: As if the central Philippines hasn't had enough rain to deal with the past few days with Tropical Depression Kai-tak, another tropical disturbance, 97W Invest, is tracking toward the country.

At noon, it was about 1,200 miles east of Mindanao and tracking northwest in the general direction of Samar and Visayas, according to the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center labels it a "medium" area for development of a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Model guidance indicates a track northwest through the same area that Kai-tak affected over the weekend. PST will keep watch.

As for Kai-tak, it has picked up forward speed and continues to diminish as it tracks through the central Philippines toward the South China Sea, JTWC reports.

At 4:45 p.m., Kai-tak was 187 miles south-southeast of Manila, tracking west-southwest at 17 mph. Core winds had dropped off to 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts, but heavy rain continues to pound the area, with flooding and landslides.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 still remains raised for southern part of Mindoro, Romblon and Palawan in Luzon and Aklan, Antique and Capiz in Visayas, PAGASA reports.

If Kai-tak continues on its present course, JTWC projects it to pass 187 miles south of Manila, 215 miles south of the old Subic Bay Naval Station and 235 miles south of the old Clark Air Base between 8 p.m. and midnight.


11:30 a.m. Sunday, Dec. 17, Philippines time: Kai-tak has been downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

But its effects are still expected to be felt into Monday; already, more than 40 inches of rain have fallen, according to AccuWeather.com, and at least three are dead on Leyte,  the Straits Times of Singapore reported.

At 11 a.m., Kai-tak, known as Urduja in the Philippines, was 261 miles southeast of Manila, headed west at 8 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 has been lowered and TSWS Signal 1 remains raised for portions of Visayas and southern Luzon, according to the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA.

If Kai-tak remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass 217 miles south of Manila, 243 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port and 263 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between midnight Sunday and 6 a.m. Monday.

It's still vitally important to remain vigilant for flash flooding and landslides, especially in hilly and mountainous areas; be careful and keep your safe on.


5 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 16, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Kai-tak is making its way across northern Samar as it begins its journey through Visayas in central Philippines, with heavy rain resulting in flooding throughout the area.

At 2 p.m., Kai-tak was 357 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed west at 9 mph and had diminished slightly, to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center.

Most of the heavy stuff is on the west side of Kai-tak, which continues dumping heavy amounts of rain. It's not the wind so much as it is the precipitation, although the tropical storm-force winds aren't exactly helping. Be watchful of flooding in low-lying areas and tree branches, roofs and utility poles downed in your area.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for Sorsogon and Masbate including Ticao Islands and Romblon in southern Luzon and Northern Samar, Biliran, Antique, Aklan, Capiz and Northern Iloilo in Visayas. Signal 1 remains raised for other areas of southern Luzon and remaining areas of Visayas.

If Kai-tak remains on its current track, it's forecast to pass 212 miles south of Manila, 231 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port and 255 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between 10 p.m. Sunday and 4 a.m. Monday.


3 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 16, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Kai-tak made landfall over Policarpio in eastern Samar at about 2 p.m. Saturday, according to the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA.


11 a.m. Saturday, Dec. 16, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Kai-tak has stopped wandering east of the Philippines, has begun marching west toward landfall and is forecast to make its way over the central Philippines over the weekend into Monday.

At 8 a.m., Kai-tak was 384 miles east-southeast of Manila, moving west-northwest at 10 mph with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 is now raised for Albay, Sorsogon and Masabate including the Burias and Ticao islands of Luzon as well as Samar, Biliran and Leyte in Visayas. Signal 1 remains up for remaining parts of Visayas plus southern Luzon and Dinagat Islands of northern Mindanao.

If Kai-tak remains on its present course, it’s forecast to pass 192 miles south of Manila, 237 miles south of the old Clark Air Base and 215 miles south of the old Subic Bay Naval Station between 9 p.m. Sunday and 3 a.m. Monday.


10:30 p.m. Friday, Dec. 15, Philippines time: It's almost as if Kai-tak can't make up its mind where it wants to go. Competing steering mechanisms have Tropical Storm Kai-tak meandering in almost stationary pose, now edging south as it prepares to make landfall late Saturday over Samar in the central Philippines.

At 8 p.m., Kai-tak was 500 miles east-southeast of Manila and tracking south at just 2 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Kai-tak is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts Saturday before plowing ashore sometime in the evening.

But the longer Kai-tak stays out over open water, even this close to land, the more powerful it might become, given the warm sea-surface temperatures. Already, much of Kai-tak's fury is over land in the Visayas, with heavy rain pouring down. Take care regarding flooding and landslides, which are plentiful in these conditions.

For the moment, Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for Samar and Biliran and TSWS 1 for southern Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao, according to the Philippines' weather authority PAGASA.

If Kai-tak remains on its present path, it's forecast to pass 229 miles south of Manila, 254 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port and 275 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between 6 and 11 a.m. Monday. All of that could change, depending on how long Kai-tak remains lurking over open water.


11:30 a.m. Friday, Dec. 15, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Kai-tak remains quasi-stationary off the east coast of the Philippines, and the forecast calls for Kai-tak to bisect the country through its central islands over the weekend into Monday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m., Kai-tak was 492 miles east-southeast of Manila, crawling north at about 1 mph, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains up for Samar and Signal 1 for Visayas, southern Luzon and northern Mindanao, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Kai-tak remains a very slow-moving system. If it tracks as forecast, Kai-tak is due to pass 212 miles south of Manila, 239 south of Subic Bay Free Port and 259 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between 3 and 9 a.m. Monday.


10:15 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 14, Philippines time: Kai-tak has been upgraded to a tropical storm and continues to be a very slow-moving storm, with its forecast track edging south, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track.

At 8 p.m., Kai-Tak was 498 miles east-southeast of Manila and was almost stationary, moving west-northwest at just 2 mph, with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

If Kai-Tak remains on its current path, it's due to cross the Visayas a bit later than previously forecast: 181 miles south of Manila, 210 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port and 228 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between 1 and 5 p.m. Monday. As we reported earlier, a slow-moving storm.

Heavy rain continues to be associated with this system. Take care to watch for flooding and landslides along the east coast.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for Samar and Biliran, according to the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA. Signal 1 is raised for all of Visayas, parts of northern Mindanao and southern Luzon.


4:45 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 14, Philippines time: Tropical Depression Kai-tak's forecast track has drifted slightly further south than previously reported. Heavy rain remains on tap for the central Visayas over the weekend.

At 2 p.m., Kai-tak -- the name of the old Hong Kong International Airport -- was 465 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed west at 4 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track.

If Kai-tak remains on its present path, it's due to pass 150 miles south of Manila, 180 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port and 197 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone between 7 and 11 a.m. Monday, a bit later that previously forecast.

The Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA has raised Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 for Eastern Samar, Samar and Biliran, while 16 other areas remain under Signal 1 in southern Luzon and the Visayas.


11:15 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 14, Philippines time: Tropical Depression 32W has slowed as it approaches the east coast of the Philippines. It is forecast to strengthen slightly, reaching 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph Friday morning, skirting the coast before turning inland on Sunday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m., 32W was still 481 miles east-southeast of Manila, crawling west-northwest at 4 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If it continues on its present course, it should pass 140 miles south of Manila, 187 miles south of Clark Free Economic Zone and 170 miles south of Subic Bay Free Port between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. Monday.

It remains a slow-moving storm; 32W’s projected path and closest points of approach will most likely keep changing over the next day or so. Tropical Storm Signal 1 remains raised for Visayas and southern Luzon.


7 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 14, Philippines time: The disturbance known as Invest 96W has morphed into a tropical depression overnight Wednesday. It is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to remain a weak system and meander through the central Philippines the next few days.

However, tons of rain are forecast with this system; be careful to avoid low-lying areas due to possible flooding and landslides. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 is raised for Samar and Leyte in the Visayas and areas of southern Luzon.

At 2 a.m., 32W was 481 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed west-northwest at 7 mph. If it remains on its current course, 32W is forecast to pass 118 miles south of Manila and 173 miles south of the old Clark Air Base between 1 and 3 a.m. Monday. It’s a slow mover and its course could change.


7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 13, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised for Eastern Samar, the eastern edges of the country’s central islands, by the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA. Heavy rain remains forecast for the central sections of the country.


1:30 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 13, Philippines time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on a system, called 96W Invest, developing east-southeast of Manila.

Model guidance depicts the system crossing the Philippines’ central islands over the next few days, with land interaction hindering the system’s development. It could become a strong tropical storm, with heavy rain associated with the system.

Japan Meteorological Agency has already categorized the storm as a tropical depression and has named it Kai-Tak, the name of the former international airport in Hong Kong.

The Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA also has 96W as a tropical depression and has named it Urduja. No tropical storm warning signals have been issued there yet.

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