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Tropical Storm 33W (Tembin), # 14 FINAL

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By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: December 23, 2017

3:30 p.m. Monday, Dec. 25, Vietnam time: Merry Christmas to all. And it appears as if Ho Chi Minh City might catch a break, as Tembin has been downgraded to a tropical storm and its forecast track takes it further south of Ho Chi Minh, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 1 p.m., Tembin was 240 miles southeast of Ho Chi Minh, headed almost due west at 12 mph packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts -- nearly 20 mph less than six hours earlier.

If Tembin remains on its current track, it's due to pass 180 miles south of Ho Chi Minh at midnight Christmas night, then graze the southern tip of Vietnam around noon Tuesday, weakening as it heads west.

Though Tembin reached its peak winds Sunday and Monday, it wreaked its worst havoc on Saturday in Mindanao, the Philippines' southernmost island. Some 200 perished in the wind, rain, flooding and landslides with hundreds more missing and thousands displaced.

This should be PST's last report on Tembin.


11:15 a.m. Sunday, Dec. 24, Philippines time: Merry day-before-Christmas. Typhoon Tembin has exited the Philippines’ area of responsibility and Tropical Storm Warning Signals have been lowered, though heavy showers and rain linger in Palawan with flooding and landslides possible.

At 8 a.m., Tembin was 550 miles east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, headed west at 17 mph and has continued intensifying, to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Tembin to peak around 8 p.m. Christmas Eve at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

If Tembin keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to make landfall late Christmas night over Vietnam’s southeastern coast, passing 136 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh at 7 p.m. Christmas night Vietnam time, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.


5:20 a.m. Sunday, Dec. 24, Philippines time: Tembin has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  It’s moving west and should be outside of the Philippines’ area of responsibility as late as 8 a.m. Christmas Eve.

At 2 a.m., Tembin was 581 miles southwest of Manila, headed west at 18 mph. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 has been lowered for southern Palawan; TSWS 1 remains raised for the area, according to the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA

If Tembin keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center at mid-afternoon Christmas Eve over the South China Sea. It should weaken slightly as it approaches the southern tip of Vietnam early Tuesday morning, passing 149 miles south of Ho Chi Minh City at 4 p.m. Christmas Day, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts.


9:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 23, Vietnam time: Tropical Storm Tembin has grazed the southern tip of Palawan and has left a whole raft of destruction in its wake – at least 75 people dead, dozens missing and injured, mainly due to flooding and landslides left in Tembin’s wake.

At 7 p.m. Vietnam time, Tembin was 760 miles east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, headed west at 18 mph and had intensified to 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for southern Palawan and TSWS 1 for the rest of the island, according to the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA.

Tembin is now forecast to peak at as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon over the South China Sea, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, early evening Christmas Eve. Secondary landfall is forecast for the southern tip of Vietnam, passing 146 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh at about 5 p.m. Christmas Day, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center as it roars past.
 


5:15 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 23, Philippines time: Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam might catch a break and miss the full fury of Tropical Storm Tembin if it follows the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track.

At 2 p.m., Tembin was 490 miles south-southwest of Manila and 884 miles east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, tracking west at 12 mph and was holding steady at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it rumbles over the Sulu Sea west of Mindanao.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for southern Palawan and TSWS 1 for the rest of the country's westernmost main island, according to the Philippines' weather authority PAGASA.

If it remains on its present path, Tembin should clip the southern tip of Palawan and pass 130 miles southwest of Puerto Princesa at 6 p.m. Saturday.

Tembin remains forecast to head over the South China Sea and peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Christmas Eve as it crosses that channel.

The latest track shows a trend southward in the extended hours. Tembin should remain a severe tropical storm, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it approaches Vietnam, but only clipping the southern tip at passing 135 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh at midnight Christmas Day.

And Tembin won't die quietly, JTWC reports; it's forecast to keep headed west, passing through the Gulf of Thailand, then bisect the Malay Peninsula over Thailand and Burma on into the Indian Ocean by next Wednesday afternoon.


5:15 a.m. Saturday, Dec. 23, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Tembin is out over the Sulu Sea and has slowed down some as it intensifies and approaches the southwest edges of Palawan Island, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

At 2 a.m., Tembin was 463 miles south of Manila, tracking due west at 8 mph and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 has been raised for southwestern edges of Palawan and TSWS 1 for Puerto Princesa in Palawan, and Zamboanga on Mindanao, according to the national weather authority PAGASA

From there, the forecast remains the same: Tembin is forecast to move out of the Philippines’ area of responsibility overnight Saturday, peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts on Christmas Eve and roar ashore over southeastern Vietnam early Tuesday, passing 70 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts.


11 p.m. Friday, Dec. 22, Philippines time: Well, that didn’t take long. Tropical Storm Tembin has already exited Mindanao, the Philippines’ southernmost and largest island, after spending less than a full day on shore.

It has begun arcing slightly west-northwest toward southern Palawan island, where Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center  and the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA.

At 8 p.m., Tembin was 460 miles south of Manila, hurtling west-northwest at 17 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Expect Tembin to intensify now that it’s back over water, over the Sulu Sea, then into the South China Sea as the weekend wears on.

JTWC projects Tembin to hook 102 miles southwest of Puerto Princesa at 2 p.m. Saturday, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it clips southern Palawan. Tembin should next peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Christmas Eve as it rolls through the South China Sea.

Tembin should weaken slightly as it approaches secondary landfall over the southeastern edges of Vietnam, passing 45 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh City and still packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it roars by.
 


5:15 p.m. Friday, Dec. 22, Philippines time: The good news for Mindanao is, Tropical Storm Tembin has really picked up the pace, making a headlong dash west off the Philippines' largest island, and has not intensified further -- yet -- according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 2 p.m., Tembin was 501 miles south-southeast of Manila and moving due west at 23 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. All areas previously under Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 have been downgraded to TSWS 1, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. Still, heavy rain and accompanying flooding and landslides remain in the cards.

That will likely change, and quickly, for Palawan as Tembin heads back out over water, the Sulu Sea, sometime Friday evening. Tembin is forecast to intensify as it heads west and pass 116 miles southwest of Puerto Princesa at 3 p.m. Saturday, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.

Tembin is then forecast to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Christmas Eve as it crosses the South China Sea. Secondary landfall is forecast for 1 a.m. Tuesday over the southeast Vietnam coast, passing 60 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh an hour later, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it roars ashore.


11 a.m. Friday, Dec. 22, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Tembin has begun a slow westward journey across central Mindanao on a forecast track taking it just off the southwest coast of Palawan late Saturday just before peaking at 86-mph sustained winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m., Tembin was 564 miles southeast of Manila, headed west at 13 mph and intensifying slightly to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Tropical Storm Warning Signal remains raised for large sections of east-central Mindanao and TSWS Signal 1 for the rest of the island and parts of Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Tembin remains forecast to head straight west toward the southwestern edges of Palawan, where it’s expected to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon. Tembin is due to pass 137 miles southwest of Puerto Princesa at 8 p.m. Saturday, then peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Christmas Eve.

Heavy rains and possible flooding and landslides are possible throughout the forecast period for Mindanao and surrounding islands.

Following passage through the South China Sea, Tembin is forecast to make secondary landfall at about 7 a.m. Tuesday and pass 67 miles south-southwest of Ho Chi Minh City about 6 a.m., still maintaining 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.


5 a.m. Friday, Dec. 22, Philippines time: Talk about an unwanted, gusty, rainy early Christmas present for Mindanao.

Tropical Storm Tembin, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 65-mph gusts, shifted west-southwest overnight and roared ashore over east-central Mindanao, bringing with it heavy rain and the possibility of flooding and landslides as it continues moving west.

At 2 a.m., Tembin was 601 miles southeast of Manila, tracking west-southwest at 12 mph. Tropical Storm Warning Signals 2 and 1 remain raised for large swaths of Mindanao and Visayas in the southern Philippines, according to national weather authority PAGASA.

The new forecast track takes Tembin even further south of Puerto Princesa on Palawan and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam than previously forecast.

Tembin is forecast to weaken as it moves over land, then pass 130 miles south-southwest of Puerto Princesa at 9 p.m. Saturday, packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts.

Tembin is due to peak at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts early Christmas morning over the South China Sea, making secondary landfall at 8 a.m. Tuesday over Vietnam’s southeast coast, passing 68 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh packing similar winds as a severe tropical storm.


11 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 21, Philippines time: Tropical Storm Tembin’s latest track takes it slightly further south than previously forecast, with secondary landfall over Vietnam now projected for early Tuesday morning a bit further southwest of Ho Chi Minh City, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10:45 p.m., Tembin was 604 miles southeast of Manila and its forward speed continues to slow. It’s headed west at 9 mph, still shy of initial landfall, forecast for early Friday morning over Surigao del Sur in northeast Mindanao. Tembin has slightly intensified, to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for much of Mindanao’s eastern sections, but also for Siquijor and southern Negros Oriental in the Visayas group, and TSWS 1 for other large swaths of Mindanao and Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Tembin remains forecast to continue a straight run west over northern Mindanao, then back over water in the South China Sea, making a slight turn west-northwest and passing Puerto Princesa on Palawan 86 miles to its southwest at about 7 a.m. Christmas Eve.

Tembin is now forecast to peak at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center at mid-evening Christmas Eve, slightly less intense than previously forecast. Secondary landfall should occur around 3 a.m. Tuesday morning, about 36 miles southwest of Ho Chi Minh, still packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it crashes ashore.


5:30 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 21, Philippines time: Tembin's forward speed has slowed somewhat and its long-range track takes it closer to Ho Chi Minh City, possibly causing a direct hit on Tuesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 5:30 p.m., Tropical Storm Tembin was 621 miles southeast of Manila, headed west at 13 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If it remains on its current path, Tembin should make landfall over Surigao del Sur at about 2 a.m. Friday.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for major portions of east Mindanao and TSWS Signal 1 for the rest of the country's largest island and for portions of the Visayas group, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

JTWC projects a straight run west through northern Mindanao followed by a slight curve west-northwest, taking Tembin just south of Puerta Princesa on Palawan Saturday evening.

Tembin is forecast to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts over the South China Sea over the weekend, weakening slightly just before it makes secondary landfall and come within 5 miles of Ho Chi Minh early Tuesday morning.


2 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 21, Philippines time: Tembin has been upgraded to a tropical storm and is still forecast to pass over northern Mindanao and graze the Visayas island group, peaking at 81-mph sustained winds over the South China Sea on Christmas morning.

At 8 a.m., Tembin was 707 miles southeast of Manila, headed west at 17 mph, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 is raised for parts of northeast Mindanao and TSWS Signal 1 for the rest of Mindanao and parts of Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

Tembin should peak briefly at 52-mph sustained winds prior to making initial landfall in the Caraga-Davao region Thursday evening or Friday morning, then diminish to 46-mph sustained as it crosses land.

Emerging back over water, it should rake Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island with 69-mph sustained winds Saturday evening before topping off at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Christmas Day.

Secondary landfall is forecast for 48 miles northeast of Ho Chi Minh City last Christmas evening.


6 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 21, Philippines time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its first warning on Tropical Depression 33W, which is on course to pass over northern Mindanao as the weekend approaches.

At 5:40 a.m., 33W was 802 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed west-northwest at 14 mph. JTWC projects 33W to cross Mindanao, the Philippines’ southernmost island, as a middling tropical storm, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts entering the weekend, before crossing into the South China Sea late Saturday into Sunday.

33W is forecast to batter Palawan Island with 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts before peaking at Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength, 74-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it approaches secondary landfall, 127 miles northeast of Ho Chi Minh City early Tuesday morning.

Model guidance agrees generally on a westward track for 33W; the question being what part of Mindanao it crosses and where it Vietnam it finally rams ashore. PST has an eye on it.

Tropical Storm Warning Signal 2 is raised for Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, and Signal 1 for other parts of Mindanao plus southern Leyte in Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.


6:45 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 20, Philippines time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on a new disturbance, 97W Invest, east of Mindanao, the Philippines’ southernmost island.

As of 6:30 p.m., it was 990 miles east-southeast of Manila and was tracking slowly west-northwest toward Mindanao. Model guidance shows 97W headed through either central or northern Mindanao, then Palawan island to the west on into the South China Sea.

If it becomes a named storm, 97W would become the 33rd numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific season – one above the average of 32 per calendar year. It would be called Tembin, Japanese for Libra, or a weighing device.

97W has entered the Philippines area of responsibility and has been named Vinta by the national weather authority PAGASA. Tropical Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised for Surgao del Sur and northern Davao Oriental on Mindanao. PST will keep an eye on it.
 

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