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Tropical Storm 11W (Nesat), # 14 FINAL

Noru has become the first typhoon of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season.

WWW.NOAA.GOV

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: July 29, 2017

8 a.m. Sunday, July 30, Taiwan time: Nesat has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but not before it knocked out power to nearly 250,000 homes in Taiwan. Some 10,000 were evacuated, 312 flights were canceled or delayed and Nesat, coupled with approaching Tropical Storm Haitang, was expected to dump 35.4 inches of rain in eastern and southern counties, the Daily Mail and AccuWeather.com reported.

At 2 a.m., Nesat was 75 miles west of Taipei, the capital, and was tracking west-northwest at 16 mph. 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center. Nesat is due to make secondary landfall over southeastern China sometime Sunday morning before dissipating inland, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.


11 p.m. Saturday, July 29, Taiwan time: Typhoon Nesat barreled ashore packing Category 1-equivalent winds, dumping between 10 and 20 inches of rain in mountain areas, canceling 350 flights in and out of Taiwan and causing fears of similar inundation in southeastern China tomorrow, AccuWeather.com, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and local reports stated.

At 8 p.m., Nesat was 37 miles south-southeast of Taipei, the island’s capital, heading northwest at 18 mph, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it burrows across Taiwan, a bit further north than previously forecast. Nesat made landfall at 7:10 p.m. local time in Yilan County in east-central Taiwan and was forecast to come within 16 miles of Taipei between 11 p.m. and midnight.

Nesat is projected to maintain tropical-storm strength as it makes secondary landfall over southeastern China at mid-morning Sunday, 58-mph sustained winds and 74-mph gusts, then dissipate as it makes its way inland.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Taiwan, according to the Central Weather Bureau. Expect the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 for Batanes to be lowered as Nesat, called Gorio in the Philippines, moves out of that country’s area of responsibility.


6 p.m. Saturday, July 29, Taiwan time: Nesat's forecast track has it edging ever closer to Taipei as the typhoon continues its zig-zag walk northwest and moving closer to landfall, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 2 p.m., Nesat was 145 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, moving north-northwest at 10 mph, and JTWC reports Nesat has peaked at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Nesat is due to diminish slightly as it makes its way ashore early Saturday evening, passing 61 miles south-southwest of Taipei at midnight, and 125 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung two hours before, still a very potent tropical storm, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for the island nation, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. Regarding the Philippines, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 2 has been pulled down and Signal 1 remains in effect for the Batanes island group.

Secondary landfall over southeastern China remains due early afternoon Sunday.


Noon Saturday, July 29, Taiwan time: Forecast track for Typhoon Nesat has been adjusted slightly, taking it closer to Taipai, Taiwan’s capital, and forecast peak winds have also been adjusted slightly higher, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

At 8 a.m., Nesat was 206 miles south-southeast of Taipei, moving northwest at 12 mph, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. Peak winds are projected at 98-mph sustained and 121-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent, just as Nesat makes landfall over eastern Taiwan at 8 p.m. Saturday. A typhoon warning remains in effect, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau

Nesat should then emerge over the Formosa Strait, remaining a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts as it makes secondary landfall over southeastern China at mid-afternoon Sunday.

Heavy rain remains in the works for the northeastern Philippines, where Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 2 remains in effect for the northern Batanes island group and Signal 1 for the Babuyan island group


10:45 p.m. Friday, July 28, Taiwan time: A slight change to the forecast track for Typhoon Nesat, which is now projected to almost split the difference between Taipei to the north and Kaohsiung to the south, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 p.m., Nesat was 320 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, and has picked up forward speed, moving northwest at 13 mph. It was packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center, and Nesat is now forecast to peak at 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts at mid-morning Saturday.

Nesat remains projected to barrel ashore over Taiwan’s east coast late Saturday afternoon, and pass 81 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 105 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it roars over Taiwan’s mountainous terrain. Secondary landfall over China’s southeast coast is forecast for mid-afternoon Sunday, still a significant tropical storm.

A typhoon warning is in effect for Taiwan, according to the country’s Central Weather Bureau. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 2 remains up for the Batanes island group and Signal 1 for the Babuyan island group in the northern Philippines, according to the country’s weather authority PAGASA.


5 p.m. Friday, July 28, Taiwan time: Nesat at last has intensified into a typhoon, the second of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 2 p.m., Nesat was 393 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, and 460 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, tracking northwest at 9 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, Category 1-equivalent strength.

Forecast peak intensity remains 75-mph sustained winds and 95-mph gusts at about 2 p.m. Saturday. Landfall should follow shortly thereafter, with secondary landfall over southeastern China a day or so later. Closest point of approach to Taipei is about 114 miles south-southwest and to Kaohsiung 75 miles north-northeast at about 8 p.m. Saturday.

 Severe tropical storm warning remains in effect for Taiwan, according to the Central Weather Bureau. In the Philippines, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 2 has been raised for the Batanes islands and Signal 1 for the Babuyan islands north of the country's main islands.


Noon Friday, July 28, Taiwan time: A severe tropical storm warning has been raised for Taiwan in advance of the approach of Nesat from the southeast, according to the island's Central Weather Bureau.

At 8 a.m., Nesat was 495 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 450 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, bearing northwest at 9 mph, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts; no increase in the last day.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has reduced its peak-wind projection for Nesat, now calling for top speeds of 86-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Saturday, just prior to landfall over southeastern Taiwan.

Nesat is forecast to pass 117 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 65 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung between 6 a.m. and 3 p.m. Sunday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it crosses the mountainous terrain of Taiwan. Secondary landfall in China is forecast for around high noon Monday.

Models have come into much better agreement on a track barreling into eastern China, with the remnants making their way back over water, which may or may not give Okinawa a soaking and gusting. U.S. bases on the island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 remains in effect for the Philippines' northernmost Batanes island group, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. Closest point of approach is projected to be 136 miles north-northeast of Basco on Saturday morning.


11 p.m. Thursday, July 27, Taiwan time: Little change, other than a tropical cyclone warning signal being raised for the northernmost islands in the Philippines.

At 8 p.m., Tropical Storm Nesat was 475 miles northeast of Manila, headed northwest at 7 mph, with intensity the same as the last two reports, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nesat to top out at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Saturday.

That would be about 12 hours prior to projected landfall over south-central Taiwan, about 140 miles south-southwest of Taipei, the capital, and 46 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung at around 8 p.m. Saturday, still as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

Nesat remains on course to pass well east and north of the Philippines, where the storm is called Gorio. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 is raised for the northernmost Batanes island group. Nesat is forecast to pass 152 miles northeast of Basco in the Batanes on Saturday afternoon, according to the country’s national weather authority PAGASA


5 p.m. Thursday, July 27, Taiwan time: Very little change from 12:30 p.m. update. Tropical Storm Nesat is now forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts early Saturday morning, just before making landfall over southeastern Taiwan.

At 2 p.m., Nesat was 485 miles east-northeast of Manila and 644 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, edging north-northwest at 7 mph. Winds at center remain 63-mph sustained and 81-mph gusts. Landfall is forecast for 3 to 4 p.m. Saturday, closest points of approach remain about the same.

Though Nesat is forecast to bypass the Philippines, its outer edges are pelting the central islands with heavy rain. Take care of flooding and watch out for landslides.


12:30 p.m. Thursday, July 27, Taiwan time: The good news for Taipei and especially Okinawa (but not so for Kaohsiung): Tropical Storm Nesat's latest forecast track takes it over southern Taiwan on Sunday morning, and not as strong as earlier projections.

At 8 a.m., Nesat was about 590 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base and 490 miles east-northeast of Manila, tracking due north at 6 mph, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Nesat to peak at 104-mph sustained and 127-mph gusts at about 8 a.m. Saturday as it continues bearing down on Taiwan.

Closest point of approach to Taipei, the island's capital, is now 142 miles south-southwest and for Kaohsiung 41 miles north-northwest at 5 p.m. Monday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it roars ashore. Secondary landfall over southeast China is forecast for later Monday evening.

Model guidance remains split, with the GFS ensemble in tight agreement on a track over Taiwan, while the CMC ensemble still projects a track toward Okinawa and southwestern Japan. JTWC appears to be siding with the former regarding forecast track.

That slight adjustment in track does take Nesat a bit closer to the Batanes and Babuyan group of islands north of Luzon in the Philippines. No public storm warning signals are up yet, according to the country's national weather authority PAGASA.

One other area of concern is 92W Invest, lurking in the South China Sea near Hong Kong.  JTWC did indicate weak development as it heads northwest toward Hong Kong. Stay tuned.


7:30 a.m. Thursday, July 27, Taiwan time: There's slightly better new for Taipei regarding Tropical Storm Nesat this morning, as the storm is now forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass further southwest of Taiwan’s capital than previously anticipated. As a result, the possibility of Nesat moving toward Okinawa is appearing less likely.

At 2 a.m., Nesat was 485 miles east-northeast of Manila, crawling north at 6 mph and packing 58-mph sustained winds with 75-mph gusts at center. Nesat is due to bisect Taiwan late Sunday into early Monday, passing 64 miles southwest of Taipei and 113 miles northeast of Kaohsiung. Nesat is predicted to have 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it crashes ashore Sunday evening over eastern Taiwan.

Secondary landfall over eastern China is forecast for Monday morning, after which Nesat is forecast to diminish rapidly. Models are starting to agree more that Nesat might meet its demise over eastern China; the CMC ensemble remains the lone holdout, still suggesting a track toward Okinawa and Japan’s main islands. JTWC states that scenario is growing less likely.

No typhoon warning signals have been raised yet by Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau. Nesat is designated Gorio by the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA. While it remains in the Philippines’ area of responsibility, Nesat is not forecast to threaten any land mass in the country, bypassing it to the east and north. No public storm warning signals are in effect.


11 p.m. Wednesday, July 26, Taiwan time: Tropical Storm Nesat has begun curving toward forecast Sunday landfall over Taiwan and China. The question being, will it turn right once it reaches the latter and head back toward Okinawa?

Models remain vastly split, with the GFS ensemble more definitively showing Nesat plowing ashore over China and dissipating. But CMC ensemble remains the holdout, showing a straight run southeast of Okinawa and a turn ashore near Osaka, about a week from now.

At 8 p.m., Nesat was about 655 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and picking up forward speed, headed north-northwest at 9 mph, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nesat to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at 8 p.m. Friday, straddling the line between Category 1- and Category 2-equivalent power.

Nesat is forecast to diminish slightly as it makes its way toward Taipei, passing 46 miles southwest of the capital at about 10 p.m. Sunday, still packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts, a still-strong tropical storm, with plenty of rain. Secondary landfall over eastern China is forecast for 8 p.m. Monday, with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

For the moment, Nesat appears to be tracking well out of Kadena’s way, 365 miles southwest at noon Saturday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


5:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 26, Taiwan time: 11W has strengthened into a tropical storm in very short order and remains on track for possible landfall over northern Taiwan early Monday morning, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 2 p.m., Nesat -- Cambodian for "fishing" -- was 490 miles east-northeast of Manila and its forward motion has slowed; it's tracking north at just 5 mph and packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. That's a worry; the slower such storms move, the more chance they have to absorb energy from warm sea surfaces.

Nesat is forecast to become a Category 2-equivalent typhoon around Sunday afternoon. JTWC projects Nesat to peak at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at 2 p.m. Sunday, just before making landfall over northeast Taiwan, with closest point of approach 16 miles southwest of Taipei, the capital, at 7 a.m. Monday.

Nesat should remain well out of Okinawa's way in the short term. JTWC forecasts Nesat to pass 325 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base about 4 a.m. Sunday Japan time.

All that said, dynamic model guidance remains split, with the GFS ensemble still curving Nesat northeast after hitting Taiwan and then northwest of Okinawa, while the CMC ensemble also shows a northeast track, but taking it southeast of Okinawa, then burrowing inland near Osaka.

11 a.m. Wednesday, July 26, Taiwan time: A new tropical cyclone, 11W, has begun forming east of the Philippines. The initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center track takes it just north of Taiwan this weekend as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, curving northwest away from Okinawa — about 230 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base — just past midnight Sunday.

At 8 a.m., 11W was about 500 miles east of Manila, headed north-northeast at 8 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center. Current projections show 11W to strengthen into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening, then reach typhoon strength Saturday morning before curving northwest toward the northern tip of Taiwan.

As always, it’s early in the life of a storm. Model guidance is split, with the GFS ensemble taking it just east of China, then west of Okinawa; and the CMC ensemble east of Okinawa and on toward the Tokyo area. We’ll wait and see.


8:20 p.m. Tuesday, July 25, Japan time: 99W Invest is now the subject of a tropical cyclone formation alert issued at 8 p.m. by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Formation of a tropical cyclone possible with 12 to 24 hours. The system continues moving north, but models remain spread as to which way it will head.


6:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 25, Philippines time: 99W Invest has been designated Tropical Depression Gorio by the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA.

At 4 p.m., Gorio was 270 miles east-southeast of Borogon in eastern Samar, headed north at about 9 mph, packing 35-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts, PAGASA reported in its initial bulleting.

No public storm warning signals are in effect, and Gorio is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center still carries 99W as a medium area. GFS models project a possible north-northwest track toward Taiwan followed by a curve northeast toward Okinawa, while CMC models point to a more direct track toward the Ryukyus.


3:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 25, Japan time: Not much change. Six active storms are still on the grid in the Pacific, down from eight a few days ago -- the most we've seen in the world's largest ocean in more than 40 years.

Tropical Storm Sonca remains on track to plow ashore over Vietnam, just north of the old city of Hue, sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts along with rain. And lots of it. Heavy showers and flooding are in the offing.

As for 99W Invest, it's still out there, about 520 miles southeast of Luzon, the Philippines' main island. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (see Paragraph B1) characterizes it as a "medium" area (chances of forming into an actualy tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours are "medium").

Where might 99W head if it does become a tropical cyclone? Models agree on a generally northerly track; some have it headed toward Taiwan, then back over water bound for Okinawa; others have it bypassing Taiwan and headed for the Ryukyus.

PST continues to wait and watch.


3 p.m. Monday, July 24, Japan time: Though tropical cyclone traffic remains aplenty out there in the Pacific, only one of six active storms poses a threat to any land masses, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

That would be Tropical Storm Sonca, which overnight Sunday took a bit of a detour south of China and could miss Hainan Island altogether, plowing ashore instead over Vietnam sometime late Tuesday. We'll keep an eye on it.

So, too, is PST still eyeballing 99W Invest. It's still lurking east of the Philippines, JTWC (paragraph B1) projects it to move north, possibly becoming a full-fledged cyclone in the next three days.

Models disagree over which direction 99W might take, one ensemble suggesting Taiwan, another Okinawa. And at least days away at that.

Meanwhile, well to the northeast, Noru has become the first typhoon of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season. It's still wandering in a great circle, but it would have to move well west to be a threat to land. Perhaps Iwo Jima next weekend, but that's a wait-and-see thing.

Tropical Storm Kulap in the western Pacific and Tropical Storms Greg and Irwin in the eastern Pacific remain well away from land. CPHC projects Irwin to become a hurricane, but come nowhere close to land at this point.

Also forecast to become a hurricane is Tropical Storm Hilary, but it's projected to head out to sea.

The residual effects of Fernanda remain fairly close to Hawaii, and AccuWeather.com reports that the island can expect localized showers, thunderstorms and flooding along with gusty winds, especially along east- and north-facing shores.

PST out.


8 p.m. Sunday, July 23, Hong Kong time: All warning signals have been canceled by the Hong Kong Observatory, as tropical depression Roke has dissipated into a low-pressure area moving inland over southeastern China.


4:15 p.m. Sunday, July 23, Hong Kong time: 08W has been upgraded to a tropical storm and has been named Sonca. It remains on course for landfall over Hainan island in southeastern China sometime mid-evening Monday.

So ... what do all these names mean?

  • Sonca: Vietnamese for singing bird.
  • Roke (10W): A Chamorro (Guam) man's name.
  • Noru (07W): Korean for roe deer.
  • Kulap (09W): Thai for rose.

3:15 p.m. Sunday, July 23, Hong Kong time: In very short order, Hong Kong has reverted back to Standby Signal 1, with Tropical Depression Roke now about 65 miles west-northwest of Hong Kong and moving inland.


11 a.m. Sunday, July 23, Hong Kong time: Northwest Gale or Storm Signal 8 is in effect for Hong Kong as Tropical Depression Roke is making its way ashore, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Strong Wind Signal 3 could resume around 2 p.m. as Roke moves inland.

Roke was due to make landfall at 11 a.m. according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, still packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. JTWC has issued its final warning on Roke, the 10th numbered storm of the late-starting Pacific tropical cyclone season.


8:30 a.m. Sunday, July 23, Hong Kong time: The good news: Roke has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The sort-of-bad news: Roke is now forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass just 15 miles north of Hong Kong.

It shouldn’t last too long; Roke is a rather small storm. But winds should be significant as it rolls through southeastern China. Strong wind Signal 3 is in effect for Hong Kong; observatory officials there said they may consider going to Storm Signal 8 at around 10 a.m.

Meanwhile, well east, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued its final warning on Fernanda, now a tropical depression dying out; it could dissipate before reaching the Hawaiian islands, though showers are forecast along with swells and rip currents on east- and north-facing shores.


11:30 p.m. Saturday, July 22, Hong Kong time: Tropical Storm Roke continues bearing down on a forecast path taking it just northeast of Hong Kong at mid-morning Sunday, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

Standby Signal 1 remains in effect for Hong Kong, though that may be upgraded before 6 a.m. Sunday to Strong Wind Signal 3. Roke is forecast to pass 36 miles northeast of Hong Kong at 10 a.m. Sunday.

Tropical Depression 08W remains Roke’s wingman to the southwest, weakening as it heads toward forecast dissipation over Hainan Island in southeastern China by Sunday afternoon.


5 p.m. Saturday, July 22, Hong Kong time: 10W has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and has been named Roke. JTWC's latest track projects Roke to pass 74 miles northeast of Hong Kong at noon Sunday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Standby Signal 1 is in effect for Hong Kong; some excellent information on warnings and advisories from the Hong Kong Observatory.

08W, still unnamed, might have a bit more life to it; JTWC's latest track has 08W degrading as it passes over Hainan Island, but making its way back over water as a weak tropical depression.


2 p.m. Saturday, July 22, Japan time: Land o'Goshen! Things have picked up overnight in the Pacific Ocean from a tropical cyclone perspective, on both sides of that intersection called International and Dateline.

No fewer than seven -- that's right -- seven active tropical cyclones in the vast Pacific. Four west of 180 degrees and three east. Along with four invest areas, two each on either side of the Dateline.

Wow. Just wow.

That's the bad news. The good news is, for the moment, none of them seem to be a major threat to any landmasses. But it's always prudent to keep a watchful eye on all the doings in the world's biggest ocean. So, here goes, starting with the western Pacific:

99W Invest is perhaps the most concerning at this point. Model guidance varies, as demonstrated here and here, but this could be the most likely to become a Category 1- or 2-equivalent typhoon in the coming days. Taiwan and Okinawa appear to be the most likely targets, should 99W develop into something, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center's prognosis (see Paragraph B 2) calls for "steady development" as the system parallels the Philippines' east coast.

Tropical Depression 08W: As yet unnamed, 08W remains  below tropical-storm strength and is headed toward Hainan Island in southeastern China. Models disagree over final dispensation, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track shows it rapidly decaying over Hainan, possibly dissipating sometime late Sunday.

Tropical Depression 10W (Roke): This one is projected to head on a northwest track, also toward southeastern China, and making landfall about 90 miles northeast of Hong Kong around mid-afternoon Sunday, packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. No tropical cyclone warnings are in effect at the moment; Hong Kong could see Signal 1 at some point Sunday.

Tropical Storm 09W (Kulap): This one is way out at sea, up in northern latitudes, about 860 miles north-northeast of Wake Island, and at this point is projected to be no threat to land. It's headed straight west, and forecast to die out sometime Wednesday, still well off shore.

Tropical Storm 07W (Noru): And this one simply can't seem to make up its mind which way it wants to go, around and around and around by the latest forecast track. Noru could become a typhoon sometime next week, but like Kulap, it's way out at sea, 940 miles east-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base and forecast to track northwest over cooler waters. We shall see what we shall see.

And in the eastern Pacific:

Tropical Depression 06E (Fernanda): Fernanda was downgraded from tropical-storm status overnight Friday and is now forecast by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center to diminish and perhaps die out well before reaching the Big Island of Hawaii. Still, Hawaii News Now warns that heavy showers could threaten the island over the weekend. A high surf advisory is in effect for eastern shores of Maui and Hawaii.

Tropical Storm 07E (Greg): This one is several hundred miles behind Fernanda and no threat to land at this point.

Tropical Depression 09E: As yet unnamed, this one bloomed overnight and could become a Catetory 2 hurricane by mid-week, but still way off shore and no threat at this point to Mexico or any military properties up north along the west coast.

Busy, busy, busy! as the wicked magician said in the animated Frosty the Snowman Christmas cartoon. PST has an eye on it. Out.


7 p.m. Friday, July 21, Japan time: Whoo-ee, has traffic picked up along Typhoon Alley – and on BOTH sides of the International Date Line.

No fewer than three tropical cyclones in the western Pacific have kicked up just in the last 24 hours, with a couple more “invest areas” bearing considerable watching, one that global models indicate could affect Okinawa in the next week to 10 days.

That’s in addition to the two active cyclones in the east-central Pacific, one of which appears headed north of the Hawaiian Islands (Fernanda; see separate post), trailed by Tropical Storm Greg hundreds of miles east.

As for what’s happening in the northwest Pacific neck of the woods:

  • 99W Invest is an area of convection which popped up on the map about 130 miles southeast of Palau. Environment is favorable for development, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which calls for steady development as 99W skims the Philippines’ east coast. One set of models shows 99W tracking toward Okinawa in a week to 10 days.
  • Tropical Storm 09W (Kulap) formed earlier Friday southwest of Midway Island. Global models and the JTWC’s latest track shows Kulap turning west and headed in the Kanto Plain’s general direction, though it’s pretty far north and is forecast to diminish before arriving in the Tokyo area. PST will keep you posted.
  • Of less concern is Tropical Depression 07W (Noru), well to Tokyo’s southeast, which is about a day old and not forecast to do much except go around in a circle, JTWC forecasts.
  • As yet unnamed Tropical Depression 08W is forecast to peak as a middling tropical storm, heading straight over Hainan Island in southeastern China on course to plow ashore around Haiphong in Vietnam, according to the JTWC’s latest track. https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/wp0817.gif
  • There’s one other area of concern, 98W Invest, forming southeast of Taiwan, but global models and the JTWC forecast calls for no significant development.

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