Quantcast

Tropical Storm 18W (Yagi), #24 FINAL

U.S. NAVY

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: August 10, 2018

11:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Yagi strengthened slightly as it made its closest point of approach to Okinawa, and remains on course to make landfall and die out over eastern China.

At 9 p.m., Yagi was 117 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, headed almost due west at 14 mph and had intensified to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Yagi's closest point of approach to Kadena was 100 miles south of Kadena at 3 p.m., and the strongest winds felt on Kadena was 38 mph.

Yagi is due to make landfall over southeastern China at mid-afternoon Sunday and die out well inland by Tuesday. This should be the final report on Yagi.


7:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa from Tropical Storm Yagi, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Peak 40-mph sustained winds, 46-mph gusts: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Saturday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Destructive 58-mph sustained winds are not forecast to occur.


5:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Further, ever  further away from Okinawa, thanks to a change in direction, drifts Tropical Storm Yagi, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track.

At 3 p.m., Yagi was a flat 100 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed almost due west at 13 mph and was holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

If Yagi keeps on its present course, it's forecast to arc southwest of Okinawa, passing within 72 miles of Kadena at 8 p.m. Saturday, then keep heading northwest toward landfall just south of Shanghai and dissipation over east China.

Model guidance has tightened quite a bit, as have the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles. Korea should be well out of harm's way.


1 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa from Tropical Storm Yagi, as provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Peak 40-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts at Kadena, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts elsewhere: 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Saturday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Destructive winds of 58-mph sustained or greater are not forecast to occur.


12:15 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Much more of a rain event than a wind event, Tropical Storm Yagi has begun pouring copious amounts of rain on Okinawa, from Oku up north to Itoman down south, and rain remains in the forecast through mid-day Sunday.

At 9 a.m., Yagi was 144 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed west-northwest at 17 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If it continues on its present course, Yagi is forecast to pass 46 miles southwest of Kadena by 7 p.m., then peak at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at mid-morning Sunday, well after it passes Okinawa.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts a track into eastern China with dissipation over land, but the GFS and CMC model ensembles continue to favor tracks back over the Yellow Sea and bisecting North Korea. Wait and see at this point. Stay tuned.


7:20 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa from Tropical Storm Yagi, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 a.m. Saturday.
-- Peak 40-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts for Kadena, 46-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts elsewhere: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur.


6:50 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Well ... now, there's every chance Korea -- North and/or South -- might not see Tropical Storm Yagi at all.

At 3 a.m., Yagi was 240 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and had picked up forward speed, racing northwest at 17 mph, but holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If Yagi remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass 42 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 p.m. Saturday, retaining those same wind values.

But the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Yagi to make landfall over east-southeast China ... and perhaps not make it back over water in the Yellow Sea as previously reported.

Of course, much depends on model guidance, which at the moment remains mixed. GFS shows -- and JTWC favors -- a track over China followed by dissipation over land, while NAVGEM and GEM depict a curve northeast, perhaps back over water, perhaps over North Korea. A wait-and-see game. Stay tuned.


1 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 11, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa from Tropical Storm Yagi, as provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak 46-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts for Kadena, 58-mph gusts elsewhere: 11 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.


Midnight Friday, Aug. 10, Japan/Korea time: With every passing Joint Typhoon Warning Center update, Tropical Storm Yagi remains a weak tropical storm and its forecast track keeps edging further southwest of Okinawa.

Yagi has picked up some slight forward speed. At 9 p.m., it was 343 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at 6 mph and was holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

Closest point of approach to Kadena is forecast for 46 miles southwest at 11 p.m. Saturday, intensifying slightly to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not forecast to occur on Okinawa.

Yagi is forecast to peak only at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it skirts the east coast of China, passing just east of Shanghai, then arcing northeast before making landfall just south of Pyongyang in North Korea.

JTWC projects Yagi to pass 70 miles northwest of Camp Red Cloud at 10 p.m. Wednesday.

All of this could very easily change, very quickly. There remains a significant spread among model solutions. Stay tuned.


9 p.m. Friday, Aug. 10, Japan time: Little change to the wind forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 11 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak 46-mph sustained winds, 52-mph gusts for Kadena, 58-mph gusts elsewhere: 9 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Saturday.

6 p.m. Friday, Aug. 10, Japan/Korea time: That loud screeching sound was that of Tropical Storm Yagi coming to a near-halt on its way to Okinawa. And it's now forecast to pass southwest of Kadena Air Base, instead of northeast as previously reported.

At 3 p.m., Yagi was 371 miles southeast of Kadena and had become quasi-stationary over the previous six hours. And it had weakened slightly, to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

Yagi is now forecast to pass 35 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 p.m. Saturday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Passing southwest of Okinawa instead of northeast is actually worse for the island. Okinawa would be subject to Yagi's northeast quadrant, which generally is the worst portion of any tropical cyclone, pulling all that humidity and ocean heat content north.

Most of the heavy stuff on Okinawa is forecast to hit Saturday, with 40-mph northerly winds and 46-mph gusts in the morning, turning southeasterly at 46 mph with 52-mph gusts in the afternoon and evening. That according to Kadena's weather portal.

If Yagi remains on its present heading, it's forecast to resume a northwest keel, gradually peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it skirts the east coast of China near Shanghai, then arc northeast toward North Korea, making landfall just south of Pyongyang at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Yagi is forecast to pass 77 miles northwest of Camp Red Cloud at 9 p.m. Tuesday, with 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.


Noon Friday, Aug. 10, Japan/Korea time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Peak 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts are forecast for 5 p.m. Saturday. Sustained winds of 40 mph are forecast to begin at 11 a.m. and end at 9 p.m. Saturday.

Yes, Tropical Storm Yagi is now forecast to rumble just northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, late Saturday afternoon.

But we're not talking lockdown criteria. Joint Typhoon Warning Center isn't forecasting Yagi to reach destructive-wind status until long after it leaves the Okinawa area, when it clips the east coast of China and bears down on North Korea.

At 9 a.m., Yagi was 376 miles southeast of Kadena, rumbling northwest at 12 mph and holding steady at 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

And that's what the forecast calls for, Yagi, holding steady at those wind values as it passes 17 miles northeast of Kadena at 5 p.m. Saturday.

Yagi is projected to keep heading northwest, peaking at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph as it grazes the east coast of China just north of Shanghai.

Then comes a forecast curve northeast, toward the west coast of North Korea, well north and northwest of U.S. bases south of the DMZ.  Yagi is forecast to pass 130 miles northwest of Camp Red Cloud at 2 p.m. Tuesday.


Midnight Thursday, Aug. 9, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Storm Yagi remained sort of stationary most of Thursday, but has slightly picked up pace again and remains on a course that takes it just northeast of Okinawa late Saturday, then bisecting the Korean peninsula early next week.

At 9 p.m., Yagi was 518 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northeast at 4 mph and had slightly intensified, to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

If Yagi continues moving as forecast, it should curve northwest, passing 51 miles northeast of Kadena at 9 p.m. Saturday, holding steady at 46-mph sustained winds, or 40 knots.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. No indication yet that an accelerated TCCOR will happen or is warranted; Yagi is not forecast to reach 50 knots or 58-mph sustained winds, which meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-E, while close to Okinawa. If only for precautionary reasons, TCCOR Storm Watch may be possible.

In fact, Yagi isn't forecast to reach 50 knots until it's past the Korean peninsula and has entered the Sea of Japan, or the East Sea, at mid-evening Tuesday.

Yagi is forecast to cross the Korean peninsula early Tuesday, 97 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 63 miles west-northwest of Osan Air Base and 45 miles northwest of Yongsan Garrison between 7 and 8 a.m. Tuesday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

No accelerated TCCORs have been set at U.S. bases on the Korean peninsula yet. Stay tuned.


Noon Thursday, Aug. 9, Japan/Korea time: Interesting zig-zag route Tropical Storm Yagi appears to be taking. Its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it northeast of Okinawa, then into the Yellow Sea before making landfall north of U.S. bases on the Korean peninsula.

At 9 a.m., Yagi was 531 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed northwest at 7 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If Yagi remains on its current path, it's forecast to maintain those wind values, pass 99 miles northeast of Kadena at 9 p.m. Saturday, then head into the Yellow Sea (or West Sea) and come ashore in southwestern North Korea early Tuesday morning.

Yagi is forecast to peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it makes landfall, passing 90 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 70 miles west of Osan Air Base and 51 miles northwest of Camp Red Cloud between midnight Monday and 7 a.m. Tuesday.


6:10 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 9, Japan time: Little change for Tropical Storm Yagi early on; the latest forecast track still takes it northeast of Okinawa. The question is, where will Yagi head from there, and there's a pretty good chance that Korea could be next on the itinerary.

At 6 a.m., Yagi was 575 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 531 miles west-southwest of Iwo Jima, headed north-northeast at 9 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If Yagi continues on its current track, it's forecast to pass 119 miles northeast of Kadena at midnight Saturday, intensifying slightly to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Model guidance is all over the lot at this point, with NAVGEM depicting a track over eastern China and GFS over Korea's west coast before curving northeast over the intersection known as 38th and Parallel.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects a possible track early next week through the Yellow Sea (or West Sea), peaking at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it heads north.

Still early in the life of a young storm. Stay tuned.


11:45 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 8, Japan time: The news gets slightly better for Okinawa, as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track edges Tropical Storm Yagi slightly further away from Kadena Air Base than previously reported.

At 9 p.m., Yagi was 597 miles southeast of Kadena, tracking northeast at 7 mph, holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If Yagi continues moving as forecast, it should arc north, then northwest, passing 93 miles northeast of Kadena at 4 a.m. Sunday, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center. Tropical storm-force winds are forecast to extend 58 miles southwest of center as it rolls past.

More to come. Stay tuned.


6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 8, Japan time: Yagi has been upgraded to a tropical storm, and with every passing Joint Typhoon Warning Center update, the forecast track edges closer to Okinawa.

At 3 p.m., Yagi was 600 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and had picked up forward speed, moving east-northeast at 10 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

Yagi is forecast to begin an arc north, then northwest, and pass even closer to Kadena than previously reported -- 84 miles northeast at 3 a.m. Sunday, right over Okinoerabu island, but as a minimal tropical storm, 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.


Noon Wednesday, Aug. 8, Japan time: While Tropical Depression 18W is now forecast to edge even closer to Okinawa, it appears as if it will remain a tropical depression into the coming weekend.

At 9 a.m., 18W was 580 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, was still quasi-stationary and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 18W remains moving as forecast, it should pass 112 miles northeast of Kadena at 11 p.m. Saturday, but with just 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

Model guidance remains all over the lot, a spread of as much as 550 miles in model solutions, JTWC reports.

Kadena's extended weather forecast calls for gusts up to 33 mph over the weekend with a slight chance of showers.


6 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 8, Japan time: The bad news: Tropical Depression 18W's latest forecast track takes it much closer to Okinawa than previously reported this coming weekend.

The good news: 18W is only forecast to be at minimal tropical-storm strength by the time it arcs northeast past Kadena Air Base early Sunday morning.

At 3 a.m., 18W was 590 miles southeast of Kadena and quasi-stationary, and had slightly intensified to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

If 18W continues moving as forecast, it should first weaken slightly as it makes a wide arc northeast, north, then northwest around Okinawa, passing 124 miles northeast of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

Model guidance continues to be all over the place. JTWC projects a spread of nearly 580 miles in model solutions.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. This storm may be one that only merits upgrade to TCCOR Storm Watch, but it's way too early to say.


Midnight Tuesday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Little change regarding Tropical Depression 18W's forecast track. It remains due to pass about 161 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at about 8 a.m. Sunday, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Enough to cause some gusts and a few squalls on Okinawa, but little more. At least for now. There does remain a 375-mile spread among model solutions. Too early to tell, as they would say regarding a young storm.


6:15 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Okinawa? Korea? Sasebo? Tokyo? Who knows which direction Tropical Depression 18W might go?

Model guidance remains vastly spread, though the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has 18W edging more toward Okinawa than in our previous update.

At 3 p.m., 18W was 585 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling northwest at 4 mph and holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If 18W remains on its current heading, it's forecast to turn northeast later Tuesday into Wednesday, then make a wide, slow arc north, then northwest.

It's due to intensify into a tropical storm with 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it passes 150 miles northeast of Kadena at about mid-morning Sunday.

But it's early yet in the life of a young storm. There's a spread of about 575 miles among model solutions. The GFS ensemble suggests a possible track toward Sasebo, while the CMC ensemble favors a right turn possibly toward Tokyo.

Who's to say at the moment? Stay tuned.


12:15 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Still doesn't appear as though Tropical Depression 18W will become more significant than a middling tropical storm, at least at this juncture.

At 9 a.m., 18W was 615 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa and remained quasi-stationary, with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

18W is forecast to split the difference between Kadena and Iwo Jima, only coming within 350 northeast of Kadena at 5 p.m. Saturday.

It's due to continue northwest, peaking at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it approaches the southern tip of Kyushu in southwestern Japan at mid-morning Sunday.

Model guidance is all over the lot at this point. Stay tuned.


6:30 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, Japan time: Tropical Depression 18W spawned overnight about 640 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.

It’s quasi-stationary at the moment and is forecast to intensify only slightly, heading in the general direction of southwestern Japan. The storm doesn’t appear to be a serious danger for now, but will bear some watching in the long term.

<related>
 

from around the web