US weapons production still falls short of wartime needs, report says

The Pentagon push to put the U.S. defense industrial base on a wartime footing faces major shortcomings that could leave the nation ill-prepared for a prolonged conflict with a major power, according to a new analysis.

Manufacturing timelines for many critical munitions remain measured in years rather than months, while supply chain bottlenecks continue to hamper output, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report released this month.

“Munitions depleted in the war in Iran will take years to replace and lower-cost versions are not yet in production,” the report said.

Interceptors for air and missile defense systems such as the Patriot and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, are among the weapons in shortest supply.

Based on current industrial output levels, U.S. stockpiles would be insufficient for a future high-intensity war, the report said.

Manufacturing lead times for critical weapons range from about two to more than four years, underscoring the difficulty in rapidly replenishing stockpiles during a major conflict, the report said.

The Pentagon first outlined its goal of placing the defense industrial base on a wartime footing in late 2025 as part of an effort aimed at ensuring the nation’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict with a major power.

To achieve that goal, the Defense Department has signed a series of multiyear agreements with major defense contractors designed to provide predictable demand and encourage companies to expand production capacity.

“Munitions production agreements are being signed at historic scale, and novel public-private investment structures are taking shape,” the report said.

One sign of progress is that U.S. government investment in rare-earth projects has increased 321% over the past 16 months compared with the previous four years.

Roughly 10,000 new firms have entered the defense market during the past two years. Munitions contract obligations also have climbed 330% since 2010, according to the report.

Even so, defense spending remains well below Cold War levels as a share of the nation’s economy, CSIS said. While President Donald Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget would represent a significant increase, it would still fall short of Cold War-era spending levels measured as a percentage of gross domestic product.

“Wartime footing is not a destination that can be declared but a condition that must be continuously built, tested, and sustained,” the report concludes.