U.S. Central Command forces began setting conditions for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, April 11, 2026, as two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers conducted operations. (Michael Hunnisett/U.S. Army)
Five weeks after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, the conflict remains in a fragile standoff, with diplomacy sputtering, economic pressure building and neither side showing signs of backing down.
Hopes for a diplomatic end to the war and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appeared to fizzle this week after President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest peace proposal as “garbage.”
According to Iranian state media, Tehran has demanded that the U.S. pay reparations, lift sanctions and recognize its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, terms Trump deemed “totally unacceptable.”
Trump didn’t detail his objections, but on Monday he said the ceasefire struck on April 8 was “on massive life support” and had little chance of survival.
From the start, Trump has been adamant that Iran must not retain any ability to build a nuclear weapon. Tehran has resisted dismantling its uranium enrichment program despite a heavy bombing campaign, economic sanctions and repeated threats against its critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Iran has managed to inflict global economic pain by largely shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, which in peacetime carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
The strain on fuel supplies has already roiled international markets and added to political pressure on Trump, whose approval ratings have fallen since the war began.
Trump has on numerous occasions declared that the U.S. has already won the war, but with gas prices rising, midterm elections approaching and diplomacy showing little progress, pressure appears to be mounting on the president to find a solution quickly.
“I think what the White House is struggling with, or what they haven’t really accepted, it seems, is that Iran doesn’t see themselves in a position of weakness right now,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “They see it as: time is on their side.”
Despite intermittent violence, both sides have so far avoided returning to full-scale hostilities. But Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with negotiations and has been seriously considering a return to combat in recent weeks, CNN reported.
H.R. McMaster, a former national security adviser during Trump’s first term, told CNN that it’s likely that Iran’s rigidity will prompt further strikes from the U.S.
“Because of the intransigence of the regime, and because President Trump won’t accept an agreement that’s unacceptable, I think the chances are quite high there’ll be a continuation of this campaign,” he said.
But the U.S. has already caused significant damage to Iran’s military, including strikes that killed many of its senior leaders, degraded parts of its missile and drone infrastructure, and weakened much of its conventional naval capability.
Grieco, at the Stimson Center, said she’s skeptical that further bombing would yield any new results from Iran.
“It seems like the goal would be to try to create some sort of leverage against the Iranians so that they’re more accommodating to the U.S. position in negotiations,” she said. “But what is the evidence that bombing would actually do that?”
Trump early Tuesday posted an apparently photoshopped image of a U.S. warship striking an Iranian aircraft with a laser beam, captioned: “Lasers: bing, bing, GONE!!!” In another post, he shared a separate image of a U.S. drone striking Iranian ships, saying “BYE BYE, ‘Fast Boats,’ ” in an apparent reference to the small watercraft Iran has used to threaten commercial vessels.
The other option for the U.S. is inflicting prolonged economic pressure on Iran. U.S. naval forces last month set up a blockade on Iranian ports and have since disabled multiple cargo and oil tankers attempting to pull up to Iran’s coasts.
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that it has also redirected more than 65 commercial vessels as part of the blockade.
That alone could cause significant damage to Iran, said Norman Roule, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who spent more than 30 years in the Central Intelligence Agency.
Speaking with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies last week, Roule noted that the blockade has already hurt Iran’s oil exports, which make up its main source of revenue.
“What is happening to Iran’s oil sector is just an inexorable, punishing decline,” he said. “By maintaining that pressure, we’re avoiding, in essence, a conflict that damages not only the [Gulf nations] but the world economy through that by taking this escalatory ladder into a direction that would be much more costly.”
Some intelligence reports suggest that Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for at least three to four months, according to The Washington Post.
Grieco, at the Stimson Center, noted that Iran has long been accustomed to economic hardship, including massive inflation and economic sanctions.
“They know how to weather this kind of experience,” she said.
