A Navy explosive ordnance disposal technician swims toward an inert training mine during a neutralization exercise in this undated photo. While experts say Iran has laid few mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon estimates it could take about six months to clear the waterway, an effort needed to reassure shipowners and captains that the strait is safe. (Tyler Baldino/U.S. Navy)
NAPLES, Italy — Nearly two months into the war in the Middle East, the U.S. has yet to break Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz — and, increasingly, the world economy.
That’s due in part to concerns of shipping companies and insurers about Iranian sea mines lurking in the critical waterway, through which 20% of the world’s daily consumption of oil and petroleum products usually flows.
While it’s uncertain how many of the explosive devices Iran has placed in the strait, the impression of a minefield is enough to keep ships away, said Sal Mercogliano, an adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy.
“The problem is that if there’s a fear of a mine, which exists right now, you’ve got to prove that there” aren’t any mines, Mercogliano said in an X post Monday that included an interview with an Australian news station. “That requires extensive mine sweep operations.”
That effort likely won’t take place until after the war, members of the House Armed Services Committee learned Tuesday in a classified briefing with a senior Pentagon official, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.
Committee members also were told that it could take as long as six months to fully clear the strait of an estimated 20 or more mines, according to the Post report, which cited three anonymous officials.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell acknowledged that the disclosure was made in a briefing but said the information was inaccurate, the paper said.
U.S. Central Command said Monday that it couldn’t discuss specifics about mines in the Strait of Hormuz or efforts to clear them, citing operational security.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened that Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the strait would come under U.S. fire.
“Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!”
The U.S. has three littoral combat ships based in Bahrain that are capable of clearing mines, but only one, USS Canberra, appeared to be in the Arabian Sea this week.
The status of USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara was unclear Thursday, as was the location of two Avenger-class minesweepers reportedly sent to the Middle East.
Earlier this month, at least one Navy destroyer safely transited the strait in what CENTCOM then described as part of a mine-clearing mission.
That effort could reassure shipowners that the waterway was safe, Mercogliano and other analysts said, but stronger evidence is needed.
“That’s just the danger of mine warfare in that one can never take for granted that mines are not present unless cleared,” said Steven Wills, an analyst with the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.
Since the war began Feb. 28, there have been no reported attacks on ships in the strait involving sea mines, although vessels have come under Iranian fire.
There have been 34 confirmed incidents since March 1 involving commercial ships and offshore infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, the Joint Maritime Information Center said Tuesday.
There were six transits through the strait on Sunday and 16 on Monday, according to the center’s report, which noted that the historical average was about 138 ships daily. Mines also have been reported in the strait, it said.
At the center of concerns over the safety of passage are insurers, whose risk assessments can essentially determine whether ships can move at all.
“This contest is taking place in the minds of (insurance marketplace) Lloyd’s of London,” said James Holmes, chair of the maritime strategy program at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. “If insurers don’t have the confidence to insure a voyage, shipping will stay put or take the route close to Iranian shores” as required by Iran.
Iran has an estimated stockpile of at least 5,000 sea mines of varying types, according to a 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency report.
That cache includes mines that can lie on the seabed, float just below the surface of the water and one attached to a rocket. They can be deployed several ways, including with small speedboats favored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
While U.S. forces have destroyed much of Iran’s navy and 90% of its mines, the country still has the capability to lay more, retired Adm. James Stavridis told CNN earlier this month.
The disruption is rippling through global energy markets.
The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $4.03 on Thursday, up 8 cents from last month and 86 cents from a year ago, according to AAA. Some regions in the U.S. were reporting prices as high as $5.84 per gallon, AAA said.
