The USS Gerald R. Ford arrives in Split, Croatia, on March 28, 2026. The Ford’s port visit came during a Mediterranean rotation before the carrier transited back to the Middle East, where it now operates as the U.S.-Iran cease-fire nears its final days. (India AaronTerrell/U.S. Navy)
President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran may have paused fighting in the Middle East, but it also intensifies a high-stakes standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides rushing to ratchet up pressure as global fuel prices surge.
The question now is, who will blink first?
Even as U.S. forces have decimated its navy, air defenses, and munition supplies, Iran has managed to keep the strait in a chokehold for nearly two months, threatening oil tankers and reducing traffic in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes to a virtual standstill.
Iran on Wednesday continued to target commercial shipping. The paramilitary Revolutionary Guard fired on three commercial ships, detaining at least two, according to Iranian state media. The British maritime security monitoring group UKMTO reported two incidents in which commercial vessels near Oman and Iran were fired upon, with both crews reported safe.
Weeks of bombing and threats of escalation have failed to loosen Iran’s grip, leading the U.S. to take a different approach: a naval blockade on oil and cargo tankers bound for Iranian ports. U.S. forces have so far turned around 28 ships and boarded at least two, and U.S. officials say Iran is starting to feel the pain.
“Iran is collapsing financially!” Trump said in a late-night post to Truth Social on Tuesday. “They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately — Starving for cash!”
Iranian officials have maintained a defiant posture. Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the ceasefire extension means nothing, arguing that the “losing side cannot dictate terms,” in a post to X.
But Iran is still economically vulnerable. Oil exports are its main source of revenue and some experts suggest leaders in Tehran are growing increasingly concerned about long-term erosion of their strategic abilities.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that the ceasefire and blockade leave Iran in an uneasy limbo, one that gives the U.S. more leverage and narrows Iran’s path forward.
USS Gerald R. Ford conducts flight deck operations on March 15, 2026. U.S. forces have maintained a steady posture in the region since the cease-fire with Iran took effect, even as both sides have warned they are prepared to resume hostilities. (Thomas Gagnier/U.S. Navy)
“Trump’s extension of the ceasefire is not interpreted as a face-saving exit from the conflict, but rather as a recalibration of the war’s form and shape, which lowers costs for the United States while increasing them for Iran,” Azizi wrote on X.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that it will only be a matter of days before Iran’s oil storage facilities are full. But hopes for a quick return to normalcy are dwindling as European officials warn of jet fuel shortages and scramble to fend off a looming energy crisis.
German airline carrier Lufthansa said Tuesday it is canceling 20,000 short-haul flights through October in anticipation of a fuel shortage. Experts say they expect more oil rationing to take place in the coming weeks.
President Trump has repeatedly stressed that the U.S. does not rely on Hormuz oil flows as much as other countries, but the Iran war has driven up prices for many Americans, impacting the president’s approval ratings ahead of critical midterm elections this fall.
A U.S. sailor prepares for flight deck operations aboard the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford on Feb. 28, 2026. The Ford, which is currently deployed to the Middle East, remains part of the U.S. naval presence in the region as the cease-fire between the United States and Iran continues to hold. (U.S. Central Command )
An AP-NORC poll conducted April 16-20 showed the president’s economic approval rating remained low among independents and has dropped among Republicans — 62% down from 74% last month.
Trump, who vowed on the campaign trail not to drag the U.S. into another long-term conflict in the Middle East, has not specified a deadline for the latest ceasefire extension. Vice President JD Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad on Tuesday was put on hold because Tehran had not responded to American demands, the New York Times reported, citing a U.S. official.
Trump, on Truth Social, said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran can come up with a unified proposal.
