A U.S. Navy helicopter accompanies warships through the Strait of Hormuz in this undated photo. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively frozen as the fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and U.S.-Israeli forces entered its second day. (Janae McCoy/U.S. Navy)
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively frozen Thursday as the fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and U.S.-Israeli forces entered its second day.
The waterway, which accounts for a fifth of the globe’s oil, is supposed to be free and open under the temporary agreement, according to U.S. officials.
But the ceasefire deal has so far done little to restore maritime traffic as Iran attempts to control the flow of ships, according to experts and ship-tracking data.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday on X that any movement through the strait must occur in coordination with the Iranian Armed Forces.
The same day, tankers in the Gulf received a radio broadcast warning them that they would be targeted with military strikes unless they first gained approval from Iranian authorities, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“If any vessel tries to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed,” the recording said.
As part of negotiations, Iran has requested control over the strait, including the ability to charge fees.
The Financial Times, citing a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, reported that Iran will demand shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency during the two-week ceasefire.
Data from MaritimeTraffic, a vessel-monitoring website, on Thursday morning showed a handful of vessels moving through the critical waterway, with large clusters of ships still anchored in the Persian Gulf. Just four ships transited the strait on Wednesday, and none were oil tankers, according to Vanda Insights, which provides analysis of oil markets.
“Traffic through Hormuz remains effectively frozen,” the company wrote on Thursday.
Trade risk analysts at Kpler, a global analytics firm, said traffic remained very limited as shipowners continued to show caution. Safe transit capacity was expected to remain constrained at a maximum of 10 to 15 vessels a day if the ceasefire holds, one Kpler analyst said.
Vice President JD Vance, speaking to reporters on a visit to Hungary, claimed that he could already see an increase in traffic.
“We actually think that we are seeing signs that the straits are starting to reopen,” he said, noting that oil and gas prices had come down following the ceasefire.
The deal, Vance said, was that the U.S. would stop strikes and negotiate, and the Iranians, in exchange, would reopen the strait.
“If we don’t see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms,” the vice president said.
President Donald Trump, in a post to Truth Social on Wednesday, said all U.S. ships, aircraft and military personnel will remain in place near Iran until a “real agreement” is reached between the two countries.
“If for any reason it is not…then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote. “It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.”
Attacks on neighboring Gulf nations appeared to slow on Thursday morning, with no countries reporting overnight drone or missile strikes for the first time since the war began. Vance is expected to lead a delegation to Islamabad this weekend for discussions on a permanent ceasefire deal, but the parties remain far apart on a number of key issues.
In addition to the strait, the U.S. and Iran are also at odds over the future of the nuclear program. Iran, in public statements, has insisted that it be allowed to enrich uranium, while U.S. officials have said it is off the table.
Trump on Wednesday said the U.S. will help dig up and remove Iran’s remaining nuclear material, though Tehran has not publicly agreed to such a measure.
