Pentagon strategist warns Europe to prepare for years of war in Ukraine

Europe must prepare for the war in Ukraine to last for years while confronting a Russian state rebuilding its military, the Pentagon’s top strategist said Tuesday, warning that allies face an endurance test over defense investment.

Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for policy, said there is no way to know when the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end, even as the Trump administration attempts to broker a peace settlement.

“As you all well know, Russia is reconstituting its forces and defense-industrial capacity,” Colby said during a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of about 50 countries that coordinates military aid to Kyiv.

“We must be prepared for a protracted conflict and for Ukraine’s requirements to persist in the months and years ahead. And we must also be prepared for other plausible contingencies as well.”

European NATO members are already undertaking their largest military buildup in decades, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Washington’s demands that they assume greater responsibility for the Continent’s conventional defense. At the same time, they are trying to support Ukraine through a prolonged war.

“Real money and industrial capacity must be put to work,” Colby said. “Again, I underline that this is happening, but we must not slacken.”

Ukraine’s requirements remain substantial. Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said Tuesday that Kyiv is contracting for roughly 1,000 Patriot air defense missiles with help from allies and European Union financing.

Ukraine also faces a roughly $27 billion shortfall in financing for its drone programs, which have played a crucial role in the country’s ability to blunt Russian offensives in recent months.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Tuesday that allies made new pledges during the contact group meeting. He also highlighted the importance of a program that enables allies to purchase American weaponry on behalf of Ukraine. He said support, including more air defense capabilities, must be delivered to Ukraine with the “utmost urgency” as delays “cost human lives.”

The Trump administration has pressed Europe to shoulder more responsibility for supporting Ukraine and defending the Continent, giving the United States greater flexibility to concentrate military resources in Asia.

Colby said an ongoing Pentagon review that could reshape the U.S. military presence in Europe is in line with that broader shift. Within the next two months, the Pentagon is expected to complete its review and present options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on possible next moves related to American basing in Europe.

“In the spirit of flexible realism and strategic rigor, we are advancing and accelerating NATO 3.0 to adapt America’s strategic posture in Europe and transition to a more durable and powerful European-led conventional defense,” Colby said.