Rows of inert bombs sit in a U.S. munitions storage facility in this undated photo. As U.S. air defense stockpiles dwindle, Europe’s reliance on American systems is raising security concerns. (Owen Davies/U.S. Air Force)
Europe’s dependence on American air defenses is becoming a strategic liability, as U.S. stockpiles are stretched by war and as Washington and its NATO allies prepare for different future fights, a new think tank report says.
An analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran is burning through interceptor missiles at a pace that Western industry cannot quickly replace. At the same time, the U.S. is attempting to focus more on countering China, which could leave Europe exposed, the report said.
“Europe now faces a looming crisis: The U.S.-made interceptors it needs, both for Ukraine today and for its own rearmament against Russia, may simply not be available,” said the CSIS report published Monday.
The report calls for European states to launch an emergency program to rapidly expand production of European-made air defense systems and interceptors.
Europe’s challenge is not the lack of air defense technology but production scale, especially for interceptors to counter ballistic and advanced cruise missiles, the report noted. Expanding interceptor production would require cooperation across the European industrial base.
CSIS recommended that the European Union commit around $10 billion to a dedicated fund for air defense interceptor production, which would send a demand signal large enough to justify new production lines and supply chain investment.
“The war in Iran has laid bare the fragility of Western interceptor stockpiles and Europe’s strategy for sustaining Ukraine,” the report said.
While the Trump administration has halted new tranches of military aid to Kyiv, a NATO agreement allows Europe to purchase American weapons systems, such as Patriot interceptors, for shipment to Ukraine. But that program’s effectiveness “is entirely contingent on available American supply,” the report said.
Underscoring that challenge, The Washington Post on Thursday reported that the Pentagon is considering diverting some of those same U.S.-supplied weapons — including air defense interceptors intended for Ukraine under the NATO arrangement — to the Middle East, though the report stressed that no final decision has been made.
“Given the shortfalls in U.S. stockpiles, the Pentagon will inevitably prioritize rebuilding its own arsenal over supplying foreign partners … Combined with a greater prioritization of Gulf countries, as well as Asia and the threat posed by China, Europe may well receive almost no deliveries of U.S. air defense interceptors in the near term,” said the report, which was issued before the Post story.
European efforts to break its dependency could have political ramifications. Washington has taken issue with the EU’s 2025 security plan that calls for more than $150 billion in overall defense investments.
The State Department has raised concerns that the EU initiative could limit American industrial access to European markets. Still, the Pentagon has demanded that European allies invest more in their own defense and break their dependence on American military power.
During February’s Munich Security Conference, Elbridge Colby, the Defense Department’s top policy official, spoke of the need for allies to “indigenize” a large fraction of weapons production.
Given the potential for simultaneous conflicts and already strained supply chains, opposing internal European defense investment efforts makes little strategic sense, the CSIS said.
“In the event of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. defense production capacity will prioritize supplying the U.S. warfighter, not resupplying Europe. Thus, it is important for Europe to build up its own defense industrial capacity,” the report said.
