Diego Garcia, home to a joint U.S.-U.K. military base, is seen in this undated photo. Iran launched two missiles toward the Indian Ocean atoll over the weekend, signaling a longer strike range than previously assessed. (U.S. Navy)
STUTTGART, Germany— Iran’s recent missile launch directed toward Diego Garcia has raised the stakes for U.S. forces in Europe, but the odds of Tehran being able to successfully target hubs like Ramstein Air Base in Germany remain low even if they are now in theoretical range, analysts say.
Last week’s launch, which involved two intermediate-range ballistic missiles, marked the first time Iran has ever demonstrated the ability to fire at sites some 2,500 miles away. Both missiles failed to reach their target—one failed in flight while the other was intercepted before reaching the joint U.S.-U.K. base in the Indian Ocean, according to British officials.
But the new development, first reported Friday by The Wall Street Journal, set off alarms in Europe, where major cities like Berlin, Rome and Paris now appear technically in range of Iranian missiles.
But those on or around U.S. bases like Ramstein should not be imminently concerned, said Mauro Gilli, professor of military strategy and technology at the Hertie School in Berlin.
“Any missile would need to overfly several NATO member states, and Iran’s demonstrated accuracy at this distance was also poor,” said Gilli.
NATO’s integrated air defense system developed over a decade ago was built with an Iranian missile threat in mind. However, the situation presents the potential for tactical dilemmas for the U.S. and its allies when it comes to defending European airspace.
Iran could be trying to force a reexamination of how missile defense assets are deployed across the region, Gilli said.
“U.S. Patriot missiles and systems have already been moved from Europe toward the Middle East to meet the immediate threat, creating gaps in Europe’s air and missile defenses,” Gilli said. “A demonstrated Iranian capability at 4,000 kilometers complicates that calculus further — every interceptor moved to the Gulf is one fewer interceptor that can protect European airspace.”
Still, Ankit Panda, a defense expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Iran’s ability to strike with precision at great distances shouldn’t be taken as a given yet. For now, Iran’s launch in the Indian Ocean speaks “to the continuing escalation beyond the initial geographic limits of this war,” Panda said, adding, “the threat is less to operations at European bases like Ramstein, and more about the potential for escalation.”
The development comes as Europe comes under increased pressure from President Donald Trump to get involved in the conflict. Trump has repeatedly called on allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz, characterizing the situation as a test of NATO’s reliability.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Sunday that numerous allies were involved in talks related to developing a plan of action for ensuring oil tankers can navigate the strategic waterway.
In an interview with CBS News, Rutte offered no details about what such a mission could look like. Military planners, he said, “are now working together to make sure that we are ready to ... secure the free sailing there, which is crucial for the world economy.”
It remains unclear how Iran would respond to more direct European involvement in the war.
By attempting to strike Diego Garcia, Iran may have been sending a deterrent signal, aiming to raise the perceived costs of any deeper European involvement, Gilli said.
If Iran could prove it has developed a legitimate threat to U.S. military bases in Europe, the situation could create political complications. Some in Europe could see it as proof that hosting U.S. operations invites danger while others might argue for the need to confront Iran more directly, Gilli said.
“The political impact of a credible threat on a U.S. base in Europe would be enormous,” he added.
