Lithuanian soldiers train on the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, alongside U.S. soldiers in Pabrade, Lithuania, on Jan. 13, 2026. Russia is increasing its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, according to a recent report from Lithuania’s intelligence service. (Regina Koesters/ U.S. Army)
Russia continues to add new military units near NATO’s eastern flank, according to a new threat assessment that warns against easing Western sanctions on the Kremlin.
More military firepower is how allies can deter potential conflict with Russia, according to the latest annual report by the Lithuanian intelligence service.
New naval infantry units and additional capabilities are being developed in the highly fortified Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and elsewhere, Lithuania’s report said.
“According to these plans, brigades along the eastern borders of NATO countries are being expanded into divisions and completely new military units are being formed,” the threat assessment stated.
Russia is now setting up a new missile brigade armed with Iskander-M missile complexes in its western military district along with an upgraded radar in Kaliningrad that will increase the Russians’ ability to monitor airspace at thousands of miles into the distance, Lithuania’s report said.
Kaliningrad borders two NATO allies, Lithuania and Poland. On the heels of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland established a permanent U.S. Army base in Poznan to supplement rotational American troops at other installations.
However, despite Russia’s efforts to enhance its position, its ability to challenge NATO still hinges on developments in Ukraine, the report said.
If the war winds down and Western financial pressure on Russia is lifted, Moscow would be in a position to ramp up again, the report said.
“Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia’s preparations for conflict with NATO,” the report concluded.
In the event of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal or the lifting of sanctions, the pace of Russia’s military buildup would increase faster. In that scenario, Russia would be prepared for limited military action in the Baltic region within one to two years. For a large-scale war with NATO, Russia needs between six and 10 years to prepare, the report said.
NATO leaders have repeatedly talked about the need for allies to prepare in anticipation of a Russian buildup aimed at challenging the alliance.
In recent years, NATO members have boosted their defense spending, and allies agreed in 2025 to a demand from U.S. President Donald Trump that members boost defense expenditure to 5% of gross domestic product, up from the previous 2% benchmark.
