Tropical Storm 22W (Aere), # 6 FINAL
October 5, 2016
7 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 9, Hong Kong time: Tropical Storm Aere continues to meander east of Hong Kong, with 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center, and is forecast to turn southwest and die off in the South China Sea Tuesday before reaching Hainan Island. Standby Signal 1 has been lowered for Hong Kong. This should be PST's final report on Aere. 11 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 8, Hong Kong time: Little change to Tropical Storm Aere, which continues to hang around Hong Kong's neighborhood, but no longer forecast to peak at typhoon strength. 52-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Sunday. Standby Signal 1 still raised for Hong Kong.11 p.m. Friday, Oct. 7, Hong Kong time: Standby Signal 1 remains raised for Hong Kong, which could yet feel the effects of Aere. It continues to linger 146 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong and is gradually gaining strength; could briefly become a typhoon late Saturday. Aerea is due to pass 90 miles east of Hong Kong at 9 p.m. Sunday before tracking south and west of the city early next week.11 a.m. Friday, Oct. 7, Hong Kong time: Aere, which was upgraded late Thursday to a tropical storm, is on a strange track which could push it close to Hong Kong at mid-day Saturday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 8 a.m., Aere was 178 miles southeast of Hong Kong, headed west-northwest at 8 mph, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Standby Signal 1 is raised for Hong Kong. JTWC's forecast track shows Aere looping up toward Hong Kong, passing 97 miles east-southeast at 11 a.m. Saturday with 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center, before heading back south, then west toward Hainan island. Different, that's sure. Model guidance remains all over the map. And Aere is still a young'un. PST has an eye on it.
6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 6, Hong Kong time: Tropical Depression Aere has exited the Philippines area of responsibility; all public storm warning signals have been lowered, according to the country's weather authority PAGASA. Hong Kong may be next on Aere's itinerary; it's due to pass 83 miles south-southeast of the Hong Kong at 7 p.m. Sunday as a middling tropical storm, 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. No warning signals have been raised for Hong Kong to this point. At 8 p.m., Aere was 308 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong, headed west at 17 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.
11 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 6, Philippines time: It ain't much, but it's something. Tropical Depression 22W, known as Julian in the Philippines and named Aere by the Japan Meteorological Agency, is making its way through the Babuyan and Batanes island groups with 40-mph gusts as it blows through. At 8 a.m., 22W was about 400 miles east-southeast of Hong Kong, traveling west-northwest at 22 mph, 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 is up for both island groups and Signal 1 for the rest of Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte. 22W is forecast to peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center as it heads through the South China Sea toward Hainan island, diminishing as it goes.
9:45 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 5, Philippines time: As if they didn’t take enough of a beating last month from Super Typhoon Meranti, now the Philippines’ most northern Batanes and Babuyan groups of islands are in for it again, on a rather smaller scale.
A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued on a disturbance that was 350 miles east of Basco in the Batanes at 7 a.m. It could develop in the next day or so into a tropical depression, and is tracking due west toward those island groups, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Philippines’ weather authority PAGASA.
Public Storm Warning Signal 1 has been issued for the Batanes and Babuyan islands and for Ilocos Norte in northern Luzon. Currently, the storm, called Tropical Depression Julian by PAGASA, is packing 30-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts at center as it heads west.