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U.S. bases on Okinawa resumed seasonal TCCOR 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday.
U.S. bases on Okinawa resumed seasonal TCCOR 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday. ()

6:30 a.m. Sunday, July 25, Japan time: It's finally over. U.S. bases on Okinawa resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday, with Typhoon In-fa continuing to scurry northwest toward forecast landfall around midnight Sunday over China’s east coast.

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 296 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base and 217 miles southeast of Shanghai, traveling north-northwest at 8 mph, with Category 1-equivalent 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Landfall is forecast for around midnight Sunday, with In-fa still packing 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

This is Storm Tracker’s final report on In-fa.

***

9:45 p.m. Saturday, July 24, Japan time: Sorry, campers, but it’s not over yet.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch well into Saturday evening, and with spot squalls from Typhoon In-fa’s outer bands continuing to pound the island, it’s not known at this point how long Storm Watch will remain in effect.

On the plus side, at 3 p.m., according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center, In-fa was 222 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 12 mph and barely holding on to Category 1-equivalent status, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

Japan Meteorological Agency still has heavy rain and high-wave warnings posted for the island along with thunderstorm, gale and storm-surge advisories. Japanese and U.S. weather radar also show In-fa’s outer wind and rain bands still battering Okinawa, mostly to the north.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to maintain its present intensity and put the pedal to the metal, curving northwest and make landfall over China’s east coast as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon late Sunday evening, passing 75 miles south of Shanghai at 4 a.m. Monday local time.

***

1:15 p.m. Saturday, July 24, Japan time: Now, we’re cooking. In-fa has re-strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, but it has begun to pick up the pace, moving north-northwest more quickly than before and could skedaddle out of the area relatively soon, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 a.m., In-fa was 192 miles west of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, churning north-northwest at 12 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. And yes, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch going on three days.

In-fa still contains a vast wind field. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight reports that strong winds are likely to persist this afternoon as In-fa’s southeast quadrant pulls over Okinawa, bringing a forecast of between 35- and 40-mph sustained winds and 58- to 63-mph gusts, diminishing gradually this evening as In-fa keeps moving north.

If In-fa continues on present heading, JTWC projects it to put the pedal to the metal and make a wide arc northwest, peak at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at mid-evening Saturday, then make landfall at mid-evening Sunday 90 miles south of Shanghai as a severe tropical storm.

Campers, let’s look on the bright side. This won’t last too much longer. And for what it’s worth, the island’s water reservoirs at almost back at 100-percent capacity, thanks to In-fa. Just keep your safe on a while longer.

***

7:15 a.m. Saturday, July 24, Japan time: In-fa was downgraded to a tropical storm overnight Friday by Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Its closest point of approach to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, was 5 a.m. Saturday. But its wind field remains vast enough that blustery, showery conditions should likely continue for the island into Sunday.

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 196 miles west-southwest of Kadena and was starting to pick up forward speed, moving north-northwest at 7 mph with 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center, just below Category 1-equivalent strength. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch overnight.

Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight said one heavy band, in particular, could bring another onset of high winds and heavy rain between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts and possible flooding. By evening, In-fa should weaken and move away from the island, with winds trending downward, the Weather Flight said.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to reach Category 1-equivalent intensity at mid-afternoon Saturday as it continues moving north-northwest, remaining a typhoon overnight Saturday, then reaching landfall early Monday morning 115 miles south of Shanghai early Monday morning.

***

1 a.m. Saturday, July 24, Japan time: Typhoon In-fa continues to do a slow crawl north-northwest, moving slowly enough to delay its Joint Typhoon Warning Center-forecast closest point of approach to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, to early Saturday.

At 9 p.m., In-fa was 210 miles west-southwest of Kadena, trudging north-northwest at 5 mph and had weakened again, to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center, barely hanging on to Category 1-equivalent status. JTWC’s forecast closest point of approach is now 200 miles west-southwest at 3 a.m. Saturday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in – you guessed it – Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Though the core winds at center remain well away from the island, again, it’s those stubborn, blustery back-side east-quadrant outer bands that keep raking the island with gusts and showers.

Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight reports we’re not out of the woods by any means regarding those heavy bands. Another is tracking to head over the island between 2 and 5 a.m. local time, with possible gusts up to 58 mph. Potential for flooding remains through noon Saturday, with winds finally easing to between 30 and 40 mph by later Saturday.

If In-fa continues on present course, JTWC projects it to start picking up forward speed., strengthen slightly to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid- morning Saturday, keep pushing northwest, then curve toward forecast landfall late Sunday evening just south of Shanghai.

Yes, the broken record keeps skipping, but again, patience and staying safe is key. Don’t take chances. Err on the side of caution. And keep your safe on.

***

7 p.m. Friday, July 23, Japan time: Outer wind and rain bands from Typhoon In-fa continue to affect Okinawa, with tropical storm-force winds and heavy showers which hit the island in earnest about mid-day and are forecast to continue well into the evening, perhaps beyond, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 6 p.m., In-fa was 219 miles southwest of Kadena, crawling northwest at 5 mph and had ticked up a bit in intensity, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, Category 1-equivalent strength. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, which should continue through the night into Saturday.

If In-fa stays on present course, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects In-fa to make closest point of approach at 200 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 p.m. Weather Flight forecasts maximum 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts for at least the next several hours.

JTWC forecasts In-fa to keep moving northwest through the Yaeyama Islands, Ishigaki and Miyako, picking up forward speed and peaking as a Category 2-equivalent storm, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts early Saturday morning, then keep moving northwest, curving into China’s east coast south of Shanghai, with landfall forecast for early Sunday evening.

Frustrating, but it is what it is. Storm Watch has lasted far longer than many would care for. Thankfully, In-fa’s destructive core winds remain well southwest of Okinawa. In-fa’s back-side east-quadrant wind and rain bands are what’s causing this seemingly endless run of blustery, showery conditions. All things must pass. So, too, shall this. Patience. And keep your safe on.

***

1 p.m. Friday, July 23, Japan time: Give Typhoon In-fa credit for being quite the stubborn beast. It doesn’t seem to want to go anywhere, but it’s finally establishing some northwest momentum.

At noon, In-fa was 240 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving north-northwest at 5 mph and had weakened once more, to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts, Category 1-equivalent intensity, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in – you guessed it – Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Though JTWC forecasts In-fa to pass 205 miles southwest of Kadena at 3 a.m. Saturday, and the core winds remain well southwest, it’s those pesky back-side east-quadrant wind and rain bands that continue to give the island fits, not to mention gusty winds and sometimes-sideways showers. Not fun.

Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight reports that a rather heavy rain band is approaching that brings the potential for 50-knot (58-mph) gusts. The forecast in general calls for sustained 35-mph winds and 58-mph gusts, the weather flight stated.

In-fa is headed through the Yaeyama Islands at the present time, Ishigaki and Miyako. If it stays on present heading, JTWC projects In-fa to peak again at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts, at mid-morning Saturday as it moves northwest, weakening as it goes, toward landfall over China’s east coast, south of Shanghai, early Monday morning.

In-fa has had quite the far-reaching effect on transportation and utilities throughout Okinawa Prefecture, as reported by Stripes’ Mari Higa of the Okinawa News Bureau and local news reports:

Some 388 ship services connecting Okinawa’s main island with remote islands and Kagoshima Prefecture were canceled due to the weather.

Ryukyu Shimpo reported on Thursday that at least 569 domestic flights, All-Nippon Airways, Japan Air Lines group, Solaseed Air and Jetstar, were canceled, affecting 23,000 passengers. According to the Naha Airport Web site, 194 have been or will be canceled on Friday.

There have also been some power outages and minor injuries related to the storm.

Okinawa Electric Power company’s Web site reported 4,990 homes, all but 10 in the Miyako region, were without power as of 10:30 a.m. Friday. Three minor injuries, one each in Okinawa City, Miyako City and Chatan Town, were reported.

Okinawa’s disaster prevention information portal reported that 32 shelters were established and the number of homes in the area under evacuation order numbered 28,629, affecting 55,418 people.

***

7:15 a.m. Friday, July 23, Japan time: At last, Typhoon In-fa has picked up a little forward speed and continues to turn northwest, beginning its Joint Typhoon Warning Center-forecast journey between Ishigaki and Miyako Islands in southwestern Japan toward eventual landfall over eastern China as the new week begins.

At 6 a.m., In-fa was 236 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 5 mph and had weakened slightly, downgraded from Category 2- to Category 1-equivalent intensity, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center, according to JTWC and Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. JTWC projects In-fa to pass 231 miles southwest of Kadena at midnight Friday.

Yes, U.S. bases remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch overnight Thursday into Friday with no end in sight.

In-fa’s core winds remain well southwest of Okinawa, but the island does remain at the outer edges of JTWC’s forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands, which unfortunately still contain a great deal of gusts and showers, extending perhaps as far as Sunday, according to Japanese forecasts.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts early Saturday morning, stay on a northwest track, weakening as it goes before making landfall over China’s east coast south of Shanghai at about midnight Sunday.

Far enough that Okinawa remains out of harm’s way of the core winds, but still close enough for rough weather to continue for some time to come. Just keep your safe on. Eventually, this will all end. Patience.

***

1 a.m. Friday, July 23, Japan time: This is one typhoon that refuses to go quietly.

At midnight Thursday, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight reported that Typhoon In-fa was 232 miles south-southwest of Kadena, and had barely moved a muscle the last six hours – northwest at 1 mph, still packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent intensity.

JTWC and the Weather Flight forecast In-fa’s closest point of approach to Okinawa to be 217 miles southwest of Kadena at 10 p.m. Friday, and that Okinawa remains within the outer edges of In-fa’s forecast 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands.The main reasons why things remain gusty and showery.

And the main reason why U.S. bases on island remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Far enough away that the core winds are well to our southwest; near enough that it remains a blustery nuisance, but also because damaging or destructive winds could resume along with an elevated TCCOR, if needed.

Weather Flight projects maximum 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts for Okinawa through the day, then gradually decreasing.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects In-fa to eventually begin marching northwest, peaking at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it passes just west of Miyako Island, then weakening into a severe tropical storm as it makes landfall early Sunday evening over China’s east coast, just south of Shanghai.

It’s beginning to sound like a broken record (OK, so it already is sounding like a broken record). But all things must pass; so, too, will this. Still looking at another day or so of gusty, showery conditions. Please be patient and keep your safe on a little while longer.

***

7 p.m. Thursday, July 22, Japan time: Much discussion out there about how Typhoon In-fa seems to be taking its time about leaving the Okinawa area, “chilling south of us and moving ever so slowly,” said one comment on social media. And that Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch seems to be lasting “longer than usual,” went several others.

Indeed, In-fa has been quasi-stationary the last several hours, and its northeast outer wind bands have lingered over the island for quite some time. And according to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center and 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts, it might keep up for yet awhile longer, perhaps into the weekend, sorry to say.

At 6 p.m., In-fa was 242 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, crawling west at 3 mph and had weakened slightly, to 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center, according to JTWC and the Weather Flight.

TCCOR Storm Watch does remain in effect, according to the weather flight, and should likely remain so as long as conditions conducive to tropical storm-force winds continue. Command tends to err on the side of caution regarding those decisions; it’s about protecting the force.

If In-fa stays on current course, JTWC projects it to curve northwest, re-intensify to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent strength, split the difference between the main Yaeyama Islands, Miyako and Ishigaki, and keep heading northwest, making landfall over east China just south of Shanghai at mid-afternoon Sunday as a severe tropical storm.

All we can counsel is patience, at this point. Weather remains one of the most unpredictable things known to man. All things must pass, though; so, too, shall this. Meantime, keep your safe on.

***

1 a.m. Thursday, July 22, Japan time: Still quite gusty and showery as Typhoon In-fa continues moving west away from Okinawa. And despite the blustery conditions, wind speeds are trending down, 25- to 35-mph sustained and 40- to 50-mph gusts in the past several hours, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At midnight, In-fa was 185 miles south-southwest of Kadena, moving west-southwest at 7 mph, holding steady at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center. Core winds remain well southwest of the island, but Okinawa is still feeling some strong wind and rain bands, which should continue probably into the weekend.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Not quite over yet, campers. Keep your safe on for a bit longer.

***

7:20 p.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch remains in effect for U.S. bases on Okinawa, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 6 p.m., Typhoon In-fa was 162 miles southwest of Kadena, moving west at 7 mph, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent intensity.

Because In-fa remains close by, Weather Flight continues forecasting maximum 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts for Kadena and other parts of Okinawa for the next day or so, perhaps longer. Though In-fa’s core winds keep moving west, its east-quadrant back-side wind and rain bands continue to lash Okinawa and aren’t going anywhere just yet.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts In-fa to reach Category 3-equivalent strength early Friday morning as it curves northwest toward landfall at mid-day Sunday south of Shanghai along China’s east coast.

We’ve all had more rain than we care to remember so far this spring and summer. We can’t control the weather, but we can adjust our sails, the old saying goes. Patience and prudence. Don’t take chances, don’t assume anything, don’t listen to rumors. Keep eyes and ears on official information and instructions from your commands and duty sections. Keep your safe on, Okinawa!

***

1 p.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, with Typhoon In-fa continuing to strengthen as it moves away from Okinawa. Though destructive winds are no longer forecast, In-fa remains close enough and its wind field vast enough that tropical storm-force winds remain possible through noon Thursday.

At 11 a.m., In-fa was 166 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling west at 4 mph and had strengthened to 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent intensity, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects In-fa to keep moving west to southwest over the next couple of days, peaking as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center by mid-afternoon Thursday as it rumbles through the Yaeyama Islands, Ishigaki and Miyako.

From there, In-fa is forecast to curve northwest, skim the northeast tip of Taiwan at mid-morning Saturday, then make landfall as a tropical storm at mid-morning Sunday over China’s east coast.

Still not over. Much rain remains forecast to pelt Okinawa over the next couple of days along with gusty winds. Take care when driving to avoid flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. Keep your safe on.

***

7:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch regarding Typhoon In-fa.

Winds are no longer forecast to reach or exceed 50 knots (58 mph) sustained (the criteria for "destructive winds"). But there remains the chance of high winds, as In-fa remains close by. High winds may include gusts exceeding 58 mph and/or sustained winds meeting TCCOR 1-C criteria.

***

7:20 a.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: The good news: Regarding Typhoon In-fa, destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer forecast for Okinawa.

The bad news: Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight reports that the potential remains for sustained winds of 40 mph or greater for Kadena and 52-mph sustained winds for southern Okinawa for some time to come.

Thus, U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) through 6 a.m. and beyond. No indication yet when that might change, nor what the next TCCOR might be.

In the meantime, don’t assume anything. Don’t listen to rumors. Don’t acknowledge the “Well, I heard” crowd. Just to be safe, stay indoors and keep an eye and ear out for official information and for instructions from your individual duty sections and commands.

At 6 a.m., In-fa was 138 miles southwest of Kadena and is tracking southwest at 7 mph, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

The latest wind-forecast timeline from the 18th Wing Weather Flight indicates that sustained 40-mph winds should continue through 6 a.m. Thursday.

Weather Flight reports it has observed 40-mph sustained winds and 56-mph gusts at Kadena and 30-mph sustained winds and 57-mph gusts elsewhere on Okinawa. Japanese weather reported a gust as high as 75 mph overnight in Nanjo, southeastern Okinawa.

Again, campers, this is not over. While not a high-category storm, In-fa remains a significant wind and rain event, with Japanese and military weather calling for rain and squalls, heavy at times, with gusty winds through the rest of the week. Keep your safe on.

***

5:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: According to Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon In-fa’s forecast closest point of approach to Okinawa has come and gone. And the latest JTWC forecast shows In-fa tracking further southwest of the island, along with its core winds, than previously reported.

But the island is not out of the woods by any means. In-fa remains a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon, and remains quite the wide storm, with JTWC’s forecast tropical storm-force wind bands stretching well north of Okinawa.

Though it likely won’t be a high-category wind event, In-fa should most certainly be a rain event; Japanese and military weather forecasts call for rain all the way through the rest of the week. Gusty winds, too.

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 168 miles south-southeast of Kadena, moving west-southwest at 7 mph, holding steady at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts, Category 1-equivalent intensity. We’ll post a wind-forecast timeline when it becomes available.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) throughout the night. No telling when that might change; it depends entirely on actual winds occurring on one or more bases and it’s up to the 18th Wing commanding officer, Brig. Gen. David S. Eaglin, who speaks in one voice for the island when it comes to TCCORs.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep moving generally southwest, peaking as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon early Saturday morning, long after it leaves the Okinawa vicinity and moves on to the Yaeyama Islands, Miyako and Ishigaki.

JTWC then forecasts it to turn northwest, bypassing Taiwan to the northeast and making landfall over east-southeastern China late Sunday.

For the newbies: It’s not over yet. Back-side wind and rain bands produce plenty of wet stuff, sometimes for days on end.

We’re still in TCCOR 1-C. Stay put and wait for official weather information and also from your duty sections regarding what to do about duty today. If the all clear is given, bear in mind, much rain remains in the forecast; watch out that you don’t end up in a low-lying flooded area. Don’t let your guard down. Keep your safe on.

***

1:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 21, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At midnight, In-fa was 150 miles south-southeast of Kadena, moving west-southwest at 7 mph and was packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center, according to the Weather Flight and Joint Typhoon Warning Center. In-fa is forecast to pass 137 miles south of Kadena at 6 a.m. Wednesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Ongoing.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 40-knot (46-mph) sustained winds and 55-knot (63-mph) gusts for Kadena and 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 1 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 3 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

***

Midnight Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Slightly better news on the closest-point-of-approach front regarding Typhoon In-fa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes it even further south of Okinawa than previously reported.

At 9 p.m., In-fa was 151 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, trudging west-southwest at 7 mph and had strengthened to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center, Category 1-equivalent intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) remained in effect through Tuesday evening. Winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on one or more of our bases. TCCOR 1-E (emergency) would be issued should sustained 58-mph winds be recorded on one or more bases.

Storm Tracker has gotten reports of wind gusts as high as 75 mph in Nanjo, southeastern part of the island, around 9 p.m. Naha reported a 55-mph gust at 9:12 p.m. and Nago up north 47 mph at 9:47 p.m.

If In-fa keeps moving on present course, JTWC projects it to keep moving west-southwest, reaching 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent intensity, as it roars past the island, 137 miles south at 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Once past Okinawa, In-fa is forecast to take aim at Japan’s southwestern Yaeyama Islands, Ishigaki and Miyako, peaking at Category 3-equivalent strength, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts. JTWC then forecasts In-fa to skim just northeast of Taiwan, weakening as it heads northwest and making landfall over east-southeastern China a mid-day Sunday.

It may not seem like much now, but the worst from In-fa is yet to come. Stay indoors if you’re there already, and if you’re still out and about, get home soon and stay there. Get your safe on, Okinawa!

***

8:20 p.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C. Winds between 35 and 49 knots (40 and 57 mph) are occurring on one of our bases. If you’re outdoors, get inside and if you’re indoors, stay there.

***

7:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Typhoon In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

At 6 p.m., In-fa was 171 miles southeast of Kadena, moving west-northwest at 4 mph with 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 40-knot (46-mph) sustained winds and 55-knot (63-mph) gusts for Kadena and 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 5 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 1 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 1 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

***

6 p.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Say hello to Typhoon In-fa. It has reached Category 1-equivalent strength, and remains on course to track west and pass south of Okinawa early Wednesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., In-fa was 171 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and had picked up forward speed, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on present heading, JTWC projects In-fa to move due west, perhaps slightly west-southwest, gaining intensity as it passes 125 miles south of Kadena at 5 a.m. Wednesday – a little earlier than previously reported – packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center, Category 2-equivalent intensity.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for In-fa from Kadena’s Weather Flight. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 5 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 4 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (74-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 8 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 6 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 1 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Once past Okinawa, In-fa is forecast to peak at 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it keeps tracking west through the Yaeyama Islands, Ishigaki and Miyako, then weaken as it brushes the northeast tip of Taiwan Saturday morning, and make landfall over east-southeast China early Sunday.

Another reminder: When the heavy stuff rolls in and TCCOR 1-C and 1-E are issued, GET INDOORS and STAY INDOORS! Do not play games with Ma Nature, for she can be a fierce, fearsome beast. And you only get one chance. Get your safe on and keep it on.

***

1:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Now that we’ve entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in advance of Tropical Storm In-fa, time to make a final check of emergency supplies. If you happen to live in a low-lying area, consider staying with a friend who lives on higher ground. Gonna be an awful lot of rain associated with In-fa, long after the core winds die down.

At noon., In-fa was 237 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 4 mph and had strengthened to 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

If In-fa stays on present course, JTWC projects it to become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at mid-evening Tuesday, reaching 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it passes 131 miles south of Kadena at about 8 a.m. Wednesday.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena’s Weather Flight. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 5 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 4 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (74-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 8 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 6 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 1 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Once past Okinawa, JTWC forecasts In-fa to peak at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at mid-morning Thursday, passing just south of Taipei after making landfall over Taiwan, weakening to a tropical storm before making secondary landfall over southeastern China early Sunday morning.

It may not seem like much now, but the worst is yet to come. Prepare; don’t panic. Get your safe on. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

Noon Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

***

7:15 a.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Tropical Storm In-fa continues crawling at snail’s pace west-northwest and was more than 250 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, early Tuesday morning, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

But closest point of approach to the island is now forecast to be earlier than previously reported, around mid-morning Wednesday, instead of mid-afternoon. Earlier or later, In-fa still retains quite the vast wind field; the entire island should be subject to at least tropical storm-force winds, stronger in the south.

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 265 miles southeast of Kadena, slowing moving west-northwest at 4 mph, holding steady at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. Closest point of approach to Kadena is now forecast for 121 miles south of Kadena at 8 a.m. Wednesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at dawn; that could be upgraded at any time, so be prepared.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to pick up forward speed and curve due west this afternoon, reaching Category 1-equivalent strength early Wednesday morning and pass 121 miles south of Kadena at 8 a.m. Wednesday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center as it roars past.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast, starting in the wee hours this morning:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 7 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 4 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (74-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 8 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 2 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 3 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Once past Okinawa, JTWC forecasts In-fa to peak at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts early Thursday morning, skirt the north coast of Taiwan overnight Friday, losing strength before making landfall over east-central China early Sunday morning.

If you still have things to take care of before the heavy predictions set in, don’t waste a second; get it done early this morning, then prepare for the core winds to hit and for plenty of rain. Buckets of it. The winds should be fierce, but it should be more of a rain event. Prepare; don’t panic. Get your safe on!

***

1:40 a.m. Tuesday, July 20, Japan time: Slightly better news regarding Tropical Storm In-fa’s forecast closest point of approach to Okinawa: Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects In-fa to pass a few miles further south (and a few hours later) than previously reported.

But its forward speed remains slow, giving it time to strengthen before passing south of the island. And it might remain close enough to be a significant wind event Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with a whole boatload (or five) of rain, lasting well past when the core winds die down thanks to its back-side rain and wind bands.

At 9 p.m., In-fa was 289 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling west-northwest at 4 mph, holding steady at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at storm’s center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at midnight; expect an upgrade to that at any time.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC forecasts In-fa to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by mid-evening Tuesday, reaching 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center – Category 2-equivalent intensity – as it passes 124 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight; there have been some changes. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast, starting in the wee hours this morning:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 4 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (74-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 2 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 4 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 6 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Once past Okinawa, In-fa is forecast by JTWC to peak at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it roars through the Yaeyama Islands of Ishigaki and Miyako, skirting the north coast of Taiwan, 39 miles north-northeast of Taipei at 3 a.m. local time Saturday.

If you have not finished preparing for In-fa, there is no time to waste. Take care of what you need to get done as early as possible Tuesday, then get set for an online movie marathon, or some board games if the power goes out. Prepare; don’t panic. And get your safe on.

***

7:45 p.m. Monday, July 19, Japan time: Tropical Storm In-fa’s forward speed has slowed considerably over the last several hours, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. That may delay closest point of approach to Okinawa to mid-morning Wednesday, much later than originally forecast.

In-fa’s wind field remains vast. Back-side wind and rain bands are especially vast, and could remain with us for some time after In-fa’s core winds subside. In short, this should be as much, if not more, a rain event than a wind event.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight; there have been some changes. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast, starting in the wee hours Tuesday:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 4 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 60-knot (69-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 11 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 3 p.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 3 p.m., In-fa was 298 miles southeast of Kadena, moving northwest at just 4 mph, and had strengthened to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

If In-fa remains on present course, JTWC projects it to turn due west, become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at mid-afternoon Tuesday, with forecast closest point of approach 110 miles south of Kadena at 11 a.m. Wednesday packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center – Category 2-equivalent intensity.

Model guidance is coming into tighter agreement, with a spread of just 51 miles two days out and 138 miles three days out, by which time In-fa should be past Okinawa if the current forecast holds.

if you haven’t yet completed preparation for the coming storm, now is the time to do so. Secure outside items, fill up at the gasoline stand and grab some cash and yen at the ATM; power could go off and be off for some time after the storm passes. Prepare; don’t panic. Get your safe on. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

2 p.m. Monday, July 19, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Time to finish preparing. Secure outside items or bring them inside. Trampolines. Bicycles. Hibachis. Tie them down or lock them up.

***

12:45 p.m. Monday, July 19, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: Noon Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 1 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (75-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 5 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 10 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 8 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 9 a.m., In-fa was 289 miles southeast of Kadena, rumbling northwest at 8 mph and holding steady at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts In-fa to pass 110 miles south of Kadena at 5 a.m. Wednesday as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

There’s still time to clean up around house and office and supply up in advance of In-fa. Expect a lot of rain from In-fa, especially Wednesday morning as it passes south. Prepare; don’t panic. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

7:30 a.m. Monday, July 19, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa are forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 1 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 1 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (75-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 5 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 11 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 8 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 334 miles southeast of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 6 mph, and had strengthened markedly, to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to reach Category 1-equivalent strength at mid-afternoon Tuesday, intensifying to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts early Wednesday morning, passing 116 miles south of Kadena at 5 a.m. Wednesday.

JTWC then forecasts In-fa to keep tracking west, peaking at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it skims the north coast of Taiwan, passing 20 miles north of Taipei, the island capital, at 6 p.m. Friday local time.

A few points of emphasis in advance of In-fa:

-- Though it’s not forecast to be a high-category wind event, In-fa is forecast to be a major rain event, especially Wednesday; Japanese weather calls for as much as 460 millimeters, or 18.11 inches, of rain in that 24-hour period. And even after the winds have subsided, expect rain for In-fa’s back-side bands to keep lashing the island perhaps into the weekend. A typhoon’s east quadrants are typically the strongest and wettest.

-- Once TCCOR 1-E (emergency) is issued, STAY INDOORS! Do NOT go out and try to navigate your way during periods of destructive winds. And especially, do not visit the shore line to try to watch or photograph the breakers. A maverick wave could easily grab you and pull you in. And you might not come back.

-- Once TCCOR 1-R (recovery) is sounded, that does NOT mean the storm is over and it’s safe to go out. If anything, it’s more dangerous during 1-R than 1-E. Staff civil and first responders are fanning out to establish safe zones, begin repairs, survey damage, downed power lines, flooded areas, etc. One could easily stray into a low-lying flood under which a severed live power line might be. That’s not good.

-- There are no set periods of time for how long TCCORs 1-C, 1-E and 1-R last. That’s entirely up to the winds and how quickly repairs can be made once the winds die down. Rely on official sources to make those calls.

-- Your power and water may go out. Perhaps for a long time, if the winds are that damaging. Fret not, for on-base staff civil and Japanese engineers off base will work their fingers to the quick to get you back up and running.

Just get your safe on. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

1:20 a.m. Monday, July 19, Japan time: Slightly better news for Okinawa, as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track takes it further south of the island than previously forecast.

But Tropical Storm In-fa possesses a vast wind field, with JTWC showing tropical storm-force winds forecast for the entire island, and JTWC’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind band just along the island’s southern edges.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight; there have been a few changes. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Between 5 to 7 inches of rain associated with In-fa are forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 1 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 1 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Peak 45-knot (52-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (75-mph) gusts for Kadena and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 3 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 9 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 6 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 9 p.m., In-fa was 358 miles southeast of Kadena, moving northwest at 5 mph and had strengthened to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

If In-fa stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to keep gradually curving west, slowly intensifying and passing 121 miles south of Kadena at 3 a.m. Wednesday, just as it becomes a Category 1-equivalent typhoon; Kadena’s weather flight forecasts In-fa to have between 75- and 81-mph sustained winds at center at closest point of approach.

JTWC then forecasts In-fa to keep tracking west, peaking as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts, just before reaching the northeast tip of Taiwan late Friday. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

6:20 p.m. Sunday, July 18, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 6 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 6 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for Kadena and 55-knot (63-mph) sustained winds and 75-knot (86-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 1 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 6 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 3 p.m. Sunday, In-fa was 376 miles southeast of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 6 mph and holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If In-fa stays on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to gradually turn west over the next couple of days, reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by mid-afternoon Tuesday, then pass 85 miles south of Kadena at about 1 a.m. Wednesday. Southern Okinawa is projected to be at the edge of JTWC’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind band.

From there, In-fa is forecast to keep heading west, peaking at Category 2-equivalent intensity and making landfall at mid-afternoon Friday on Taiwan’s northeast coast. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

3 p.m. Sunday, July 18, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Tropical Storm In-fa, according to Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Destructive sustained winds of 50 knots (58-mph) or greater are possible within 48 hours. Time to conduct a general cleanup around home and office, check your emergency kits (go-bags) and finish supplying up.

***

1:15 p.m. Sunday, July 18, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Storm In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect an upgrade to that this afternoon or evening. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 6 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 55-knot (63-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for Kadena and 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds and 75-knot (86-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 11 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 6 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded In-fa to a tropical storm. At 9 a.m., In-fa was 376 miles southeast of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 8 mph and had intensified to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

If In-fa stays on present course, JTWC projects it move north-northwest for the next day or so, then curve almost due west, intensifying as it goes and passing 70 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 11 p.m. Tuesday just as it reaches Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength.

From there, In-fa is forecast to keep heading west toward Taiwan, reaching Category 2-equivalent intensity as it reaches landfall in northeast Taiwan at mid-morning Friday. More to come this evening or when TCCORs are upgraded. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

7:30 a.m. Sunday, July 18, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression In-fa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect an upgrade to that later today. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with In-fa remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 3 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds and 85-knot (98-mph) gusts for Kadena and 65-knot (75-mph) sustained winds and 80-knot (92-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 8 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 7 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 1 a.m. Thursday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 3 a.m., In-fa was 419 miles southeast of Kadena, moving north-northwest at 7 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If In-fa continues on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to continue arcing northwest, then turn almost due west early Tuesday evening, passing 53 miles southwest of Kadena at 8 p.m. Tuesday, just before intensifying into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, with 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center.

Forecast ensembles’ best tracks continue to generally agree on a northwesterly course, but many outliers remain within the GFS, CMC and ECMWF ensembles. Still enough room and time for change as In-fa approaches. Get your safe on, Okinawa! Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

1:30 a.m. Sunday, July 18, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression 09W from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 09W remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 5 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds and 85-knot (98-mph) gusts for Kadena and 65-knot (75-mph) sustained winds and 80-knot (92-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 7 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 7 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

***

11:30 p.m. Saturday, July 17, Japan time: Tropical Depression 09W remains on course to pass just southwest of Okinawa early Tuesday evening just as it crosses threshold and becomes a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track.

At 9 p.m., 09W (as yet unnamed) was 458 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 8 mph, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; fairly strong chance that may be upgraded sometime Sunday.

If 09W remains on present heading, JTWC projects it to arc west-northwest over the next couple of days, gradually intensifying into a typhoon as it passes 62 miles southwest of Kadena at 7 p.m. Tuesday, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center as it roars past. JTWC projects Okinawa to be well within 09W’s 50-knot (58-mph) wind band.

Model guidance continues rounding into better agreement, but there remains some spread among solutions. Model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF ensembles remain in general agreement on a northwest to west-northwest track, with plenty of outliers.

Next wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa will be posted just after sunrise Sunday, when it becomes available. Until then, Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

6:40 p.m. Saturday, July 17, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression 09W from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 09W remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 7 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds and 85-knot (98-mph) gusts for Kadena and 70-knot (81-mph) sustained winds and 90-knot (104-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 9 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

At 3 p.m., 09W was 486 miles southeast of Kadena, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

If 09W continues on present heading, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to become a tropical storm overnight Saturday, curve west-northwest in the coming couple of days, reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon intensity at mid-afternoon Tuesday, just before passing 53 miles southwest of Kadena packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts or higher at center.

Models are coming into better agreement. Model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles generally agree on a west-northwest track near Okinawa; the question remains, exactly how close. Still plenty of room for change. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

1:15 p.m. Saturday, July 17, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression 09W from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 09W remain forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 7 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 60-knot (69-mph) sustained winds and 85-knot (98-mph) gusts for Kadena and 70-knot (81-mph) sustained winds and 90-knot (104-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 9 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): Midnight Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

Peak forecast winds have increased slightly because 09W is now forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass a bit closer to Okinawa than previously reported.

At 9 a.m., 09W was 549 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 9 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at center.

If 09W remains on present heading, JTWC projects it to continue arcing northwest, become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at mid-morning Tuesday and pass 59 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 9 p.m. Tuesday, just before peaking at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, then continue toward China’s east coast.

Again, forecast models remain divided. Model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles generally agree on a northwest track; the question being, north of Okinawa? South of Okinawa? More should be known as 09W continues developing. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

8 a.m. Saturday, July 17, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression 09W from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 09W are forecast:

-- Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 6 a.m. Tuesday.

-- Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

-- Peak 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds and 65-knot (75-mph) gusts for Kadena and 55-knot (63-mph) sustained winds and 70-knot (81-mph) gusts for southern Okinawa: Midnight Tuesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph): 6 a.m. Wednesday.

-- Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40 mph): 3 p.m. Wednesday.

A reminder: 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

***

6:40 a.m. Saturday, July 17, Japan time: Slightly better news for Okinawa on the typhoon front, though the island is far from out of the woods regarding Tropical Depression 09W. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it a bit further south of the island than previously forecast.

At 3 a.m., 09W was 661 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving northwest at 6 mph, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

If 09W continues on present course, JTWC projects it to continue curving northwest, reaching Category 1-equivalent typhoon intensity early Tuesday morning and passing 74 miles south-southwest of Kadena at midnight Tuesday with 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center – a bit further away from the island and not as strong as previously reported.

There still remains a long-term spread among model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles. More to come. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

8:15 p.m. Friday, July 16, Japan time: Here is the initial wind-forecast timeline for Tropical Depression 09W, from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for the moment.

Onset of 35-knot (40-mph) sustained winds: 5 a.m. Tuesday.

Onset of destructive 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Peak 90-knot (104-mph) sustained winds and 110-knot (127-mph) gusts: Midnight Tuesday.

Winds subsiding below 50 knots (58 mph) sustained: 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Winds subsiding below 35 knots (40-mph) sustained: 2 p.m. Wednesday.

A reminder, winds of 35 knots (40 mph) or greater meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater for upgrade to TCCOR 1-E (emergency). Weather flight forecasts between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with 09W.

New timelines will be posted when available as forecast tracks and wind speeds are updated.

If it becomes a named storm, it would be called In-fa, which means fireworks, a name given to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s typhoon data base by Macau, China.

***

6:30 p.m. Friday, July 16, Japan time: Say hello to the ninth numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific’s season.

Tropical Depression 09W spawned Friday afternoon south-southeast of Okinawa, and according to the initial forecast track released by Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the island could see a seriously rainy, gusty middle of the week.

At 3 p.m., 09W was 758 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base and was quasi-stationary, with 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

If 09W remains on present heading, JTWC projects it to move north over the next 1½ days, then curve northwest, reaching typhoon intensity by mid-afternoon Monday, peaking at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it passes 34 miles southwest of Kadena at midnight Tuesday.

But that’s the initial forecast track. JTWC reports a high degree of uncertainty, with a vast spread among model solutions.

Model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF are equally divided, with outliers spreading as far southwest as Taiwan and as far north as southwestern Kyushu. It’ll take some time for things to shake out and shape up. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

6:45 a.m. Friday, July 16, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued for disturbance 98W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 a.m., 98W was 682 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

More should be known regarding 98W’s eventual destination once it becomes a tropical cyclone and JTWC issues an official forecast track.

For the moment, model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles remain sharply divided, some solutions indicating a track south of Okinawa, others north and closer to Kyushu. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

2 a.m. Friday, July 16, Japan time: Though 98W Invest remains a disturbance and a tropical cyclone still has yet to form, long-range weather forecasts are offering an indication that winds should start picking up on Okinawa by early next week.

At 9 p.m. Thursday, 98W was 652 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base and 1,009 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Forecast ensembles still generally agree on a north to northwesterly track the next few days, but there remains a vast split among solutions, as far southwest as Ishigaki Island and northeast as Kitakyushu in southwestern Japan. GFS’ best track depicts 98W splitting the difference between Okinawa and Kyushu, but without an official forecast track, it remains hard to tell.

Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight extended outlook does show southerly winds picking up Tuesday next, 19-mph sustained winds with gusts between 28 and 40 mph in the morning, increasing to 22-mph sustained and gusts between 31 and 40 mph in the afternoon and evening, with a 50-percent chance of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Again, much remains uncertain. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

5:15 p.m. Thursday, July 15, Japan time: Not much difference from previous reports. Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to label disturbance 98W Invest a “medium” area for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Model solutions generally agree on north to northwest movement in the coming days; the questions remaining where specifically and how strong it might become.

At 3 p.m., 98W was 692 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 1,049 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, Japan, according to JTWC.

Model track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensemble best tracks edge 98W closer to Okinawa than previously reported. But that continues to fluctuate. JTWC also reports some models depict consistent development near-term, while others favor slower development.

The short answer: It’s still uncertain. For how long, remains uncertain. The only thing certain, remains uncertainty. We can only counsel patience. Once it develops and we get an official forecast track from JTWC, we’ll know more. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

1 a.m. Thursday, July 15, Japan time: 98W Invest is not yet a tropical cyclone, continuing to try to organize well southeast of Okinawa and Kyushu. At this point, the only thing certain remains uncertainty, though solutions generally agree on a north to northwest track over the next couple of days.

Again, a lot of questions remain. How close might it come to Kyushu? Or Okinawa? When? And how strong might it get?

At 9 p.m. Wednesday, 98W was 886 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 1,201 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, Japan.

Model track guidance leans toward a more westerly path, in the general direction of Amami Oshima and Okinawa, while the GFS forecast ensemble solutions are all over the place, some bending toward Kyushu, others toward the Ryukyus. It’s still wait and see, campers. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

4 p.m. Wednesday, July 14, Japan time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center has quickly labeled disturbance 98W Invest as a “medium” area for development into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

At 3 p.m., 98W was 557 miles west-northwest of Guam, 869 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 1,186 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan.

Still too early to definitively say which way 98W might go or how strong it might become. The latest model track guidance and GFS forecast ensemble indicate 98W may zag northwest, between Okinawa and Kyushu, then past the southwest coast of the Korean peninsula. Still very much a guessing game. Storm Tracker has the watch.

***

1 p.m. Wednesday, July 14, Japan time: A tropical disturbance labeled 98W Invest has surfaced northwest of the Marianas Islands. Initial forecast ensembles indicate a possible track toward southwestern Japan or Okinawa in the next five days, entering next week.

It is way too early to tell at this point where exactly it might go or how strong it might become (if it develops much at all). More would be known if it does develop into a tropical depression and we see an official forecast track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Again, it’s a guessing game at this point. Storm Tracker has the watch.

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