Iran war puts spotlight on US defenses against Pacific missile, drone threats

The United States is strengthening defenses against missiles and drones in the Pacific as recent attacks on American bases in the Middle East highlight the potential risks to installations facing increasingly sophisticated Chinese and North Korean weapons.

Projects include a $1.9 billion air- and missile-defense system on Guam, expanded counter-drone capabilities and a joint U.S.-Japan effort to develop interceptors for hypersonic weapons.

U.S. Pacific Command is prioritizing efforts to protect its forces, according to an Aug. 22 unsigned email to Stars and Stripes.

PACOM is “committed to establishing a robust defense by denial and creating a military posture in the Western Pacific that renders aggression infeasible, escalation unattractive, and conflict unbearable,” the command said.

However, some defense analysts say the recent war with Iran demonstrates the need to move faster and invest more heavily in protecting U.S. facilities.

U.S. bases and infrastructure in the Middle East “were not up to par” defensively before the war, said Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C.

American installations in the Pacific appear similarly ill-prepared for a conflict, he said in an Aug. 13 phone interview. Jones said they need greater protection against drones and ballistic missiles, including underground facilities for critical infrastructure and concrete barriers around storage facilities.

The Pacific also has too few Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, systems to protect against potential attacks, he said.

U.S. Forces Japan has four Patriot batteries on Okinawa, according to the 2026 USFJ Standard Book. U.S. Forces Korea has one THAAD battery and normally has eight Patriot batteries, according to a March 2026 report in The Chosun Daily. The Army has a THAAD battery on Guam, according to a July 2025 Congressional Research Service report.

China and North Korea are fielding increasingly sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, drones and electronic warfare capabilities that could threaten U.S. forces throughout the region, Jones said.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptor is test-fired from Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands, Aug. 30, 2019. (Missile Defense Agency)

The Pentagon is pursuing several projects aimed at addressing such threats.

Lockheed Martin is developing an Enhanced Integrated Air Missile System on Guam to defend the U.S. territory against cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The Pentagon approved another $407 million for the project in May, bringing the contract total to $1.9 billion.

The Army is also adding new Patriot missiles and counter-drone defenses as part of a larger $8 billion Guam Defense System to protect the island against potential threats by China or North Korea.

The U.S. also reached an agreement with Japan in May 2024 to jointly develop interceptors to counter hypersonic missile threats. The project is scheduled for completion in the 2030s.

Jones said those types of active defenses should be complemented by passive measures that make bases and equipment harder to destroy, including hardened aircraft shelters, underground facilities, barriers, dispersal and camouflage.

The U.S. has been “too slow to learn from the war in Ukraine,” where such measures have been used to limit damage from Russian strikes, he wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Aug. 9.

North Korea’s participation in that war presents another concern for U.S. and allied forces in the Pacific, Jones said. Ukrainian troops recently told him that North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia have become more capable at the operational and tactical levels.

Timothy Heath — founder of defense research firm Perceptum and a former senior China analyst for Rand Corp. and the U.S. military — agreed that U.S. installations need a combination of active and passive defenses but cautioned against overstating the effectiveness of missiles and drones.

The wars in Iran and Ukraine demonstrate that such weapons can inflict “punishing damage,” Heath said by email Aug. 15, but have contributed to stalemate rather than forcing an adversary to capitulate.

For Jones, the conflicts nevertheless offer a warning about the potential cost of inadequate base defenses.

“The U.S. has already paid a huge price for being unprepared in a world where drones and missiles are ubiquitous,” he wrote in the Journal. “Will the U.S. military learn before the price escalates? The Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans and Russians are waiting to see.”