Military moves in Middle East raise questions about US commitment to Pacific

Recent military moves have raised questions about the U.S. commitment to the Pacific as the primary region of superpower rivalry in the world.

Among the shifts causing concern:

The conflict with Iran, now in its sixth month, has required the transfer of large stocks of long-range missiles and anti-missile defense weapons away from Asia.

Lyle Goldstein, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University who specializes in China policy, said the U.S. needs an honest appraisal of its ability to wage war in multiple regions.

“I think the ‘challenge’ or asymmetry is so daunting that we should rethink our approach in the Asia-Pacific and try very hard to avoid getting sucked into an unnecessary conflict over Taiwan or some shoals in the South China Sea,” Goldstein said.

Reports that the U.S. has used a third of its Tomahawk cruise missiles and up to 65% of Patriot and 40% of THAAD air-defense interceptors in Operation Epic Fury make the U.S. arsenal look stretched to cover both Iran and a possible conflict with China.

“Even before Iran, the U.S. did not have anywhere near enough Patriot interceptors, long-range strike missiles or naval munitions like torpedoes. By contrast, I have many reasons to believe that the Chinese weapons stocks are not only very large, but also well protected and well managed,” Goldstein said.

Bryan Clark, a former Navy officer and now a senior fellow at the conservative think tank Hudson Institute, said sending USS George Washington, the only U.S. carrier to be forward-based in Asia, to the Middle East gives an appearance that the U.S. is no longer “the big dog” in the region.

“This impacts U.S. credibility, especially since the Chinese have deployed a carrier strike group on a western Pacific patrol,” Clark said.

The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and its strike group have recently operated around the Philippine Sea and South China Sea. Russia and China held Joint-Sea 26, a major naval exercise in the Pacific in July. China also test-launched a ballistic missile from a submarine in July.

Clark said he expects the lack of carriers in the western Pacific to last for at least a month.

USS Theodore Roosevelt, based in San Diego, recently returned from leading the RIMPAC exercises in Hawaii. It’s scheduled for a deployment cycle, but the Navy doesn’t specify where and when carriers will operate, citing security.

Clark said he thinks it will be to the Middle East.

“There will be a gap until Roosevelt deploys in the next month or so,” Clark said. “However, the Roosevelt will likely just pass through the region on its way to the Middle East. The Washington will then probably return to the Pacific in late October or early November.”

In the meantime, the largest naval force in the region is the USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group, which includes the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.

Adm. Frank Bradley, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, last Thursday reasserted U.S. commitments to the region during a visit to Manila.

“We have the ability to project force, the United States, anywhere on the globe,” Bradley told The Associated Press. “And when the threat in the region of the Middle East has been attended to, we will redeploy and reorient and be able to project that force wherever else it might be required.”

Washington’s deployment to the Middle East is part of the mixed signals the U.S. has sent to allies in the Pacific.

Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy, said Thursday in Bangkok that the Pentagon’s emphasis remains firmly on the region, especially the “first island chain” that includes Japan and the Philippines.

“The strategic focus of the United States military is really — and consistent with the national security strategy and the national defense strategy — on the first island chain,” Colby said.

But Trump also announced that the joint U.S.-South Korean maneuvers, Ulchi Freedom Shield, set to run through Aug. 27, would be scaled back this year.

Trump cited what he said was his “very good relationship” with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, as well as his disappointment that South Korea did not agree to his offer to take part in the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., a former Navy officer, said Trump’s action undermined support for a key ally in Asia.

“Hollowing out these joint exercises is shortsighted and a mistake,” Kelly said in a post on X.

Taken together, the movement of USS Washington, the cutbacks to the war games on the Korean Peninsula and the drain on reserves of long-range missiles are concerning and undercut a message of American strength in the region.

Clark said Chinese leader Xi Jinping isn’t likely to make a move at this time. But it buttresses China’s argument that Pacific nations recognize Beijing’s military dominance in Asia.

“Xi still views the military as not ready for major combat operations,” Clark said. “However, it helps China’s narrative that the U.S. is declining and unable to protect them while China is ascendant.”