Masayuki Masuda, head of the National Institute for Defense Studies' China Division, speaks to reporters at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo, Jan. 8, 2026. (Akifumi Ishikawa/Stars and Stripes)
TOKYO — China and Japan have few options available to resolve increasing acrimony over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks about her country’s response to a potential attack on Taiwan, two academics said Thursday.
Masayuki Masuda, who leads the China division at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies, and John Chuan Tiong Lim, a research fellow at Tokyo University’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, discussed the deadlock at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Nov. 7 told the Diet that a Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.
“If it involves the use of warships and the use of force, I believe that this could constitute an existential threat,” she told lawmakers.
Takaichi’s statement did not alter Japanese policy, but it provoked a strong reaction in Beijing, Masuda told reporters.
China in response reduced commercial flights to Japan, reimposed a ban on Japanese seafood and restricted tourism. On Tuesday, it banned exports to Japan of dual-use goods that can serve military purposes.
Takaichi in December said Tokyo seeks dialogue with Beijing and a “constructive and stable relationship,” The Asahi Shimbun reported Dec. 18. But her earlier statement also reflects the longstanding government position, she said, according to the newspaper.
John Chuan Tiong Lim, a research fellow at Tokyo University's Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, speaks to reporters at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo, Jan. 8, 2026. (Akifumi Ishikawa/Stars and Stripes)
China offers no compromise other than the withdrawal of Takaichi’s statement, Masuda told reporters.
“Sino-Japanese relations show no sign of abating,” he said. “Beijing has not prepared any feasible exit strategy.”
Takaichi has broad domestic support in her government and among the Japanese public, Masuda added.
Beijing could improve relations with Tokyo if it chose to, Lim said.
The two nations have resolved past disputes reasonably quickly, although a rift over Japan’s nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, near Taiwan, lasted from 2012 to 2014, he said.
The current crisis will likely persist until President Donald Trump visits China in April and may last until November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China, Lim said.
During the dispute, Japan may curtail engagement with Taiwan, including diplomatic visits and coast guard training, he said.
China will continue using its military to signal Japan, Masuda said.
In December, for example, a Chinese fighter aimed its fire-control radar at a pair of Japanese aircraft over international waters, according to the Japanese government. Masuda said he expects that sort of activity to increase.
“China is trying to create a new normal to send a more direct message by showing military muscle to Tokyo,” he said.
