A Venezuelan Su-30 “Flanker” fighter shadows an American EP-3 aircraft in July 2019. (U.S. Southern Command)
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. is “not at war with Venezuela” after Delta Force soldiers on Saturday extracted President Nicolás Maduro to face drug charges in New York, but he is watching to see what actions are taken by acting president Delcy Rodriguez.
Trump has said, though, that he could put “boots on the ground” in the oil-rich South American nation to enforce his demands.
An invasion or occupation, like past U.S. actions in Afghanistan, Panama and Grenada, would pose significant challenges. The U.S. would need to increase its military commitment to take over the country by force, some analysts say.
“Current assets are inadequate for larger and riskier operations,” said Mark Cancian, a former Marine officer who is now an analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
The Pentagon confirmed that more than 15,000 U.S. personnel were deployed in the region for Operation Absolute Resolve on Saturday. Though it has assembled an armada of ships and has enough aircraft to ensure air superiority over Venezuela, Cancian said a minimum of 50,000 troops would be needed for Americans to force their way onto land and occupy key sites such as oil production facilities.
“From a doctrine standpoint, a commander would probably ask for something more like 150,000 or 200,000 troops,” Cancian said.
Two doctrines frame U.S. policy:
The Monroe Doctrine, enunciated by President James Monroe in 1823, asserts that only the United States should have influence over countries in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has repeatedly pointed to the doctrine as the touchstone of American international policy.
The other key idea is the Powell Doctrine, named after former Army general Colin Powell, who served as secretary of state under President George W. Bush. It demands clear objectives, overwhelming force, and public support for military action.
“Decide what you are trying to achieve politically,” Powell said in 2009, “and apply force decisively.”
Trump has dispatched the USS Gerald R. Ford and its Carrier Strike Group 12 to the region, deploying F/A-18 Hornet attack squadrons and EA-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft. The group includes three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers: the USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Bainbridge and USS Mahan.
The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group operates in the Caribbean, featuring the USS Iwo Jima and two Landing Platform Docks — the USS Fort Lauderdale and USS San Antonio — carrying 2,200 Marines from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit. Additional destroyers and two Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the USS Gettysburg and USS Lake Erie, bolster the force.
A U.S. Marine F-35B Lightning II prepares for takeoff in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, Oct. 2, 2025. (Nathan Call/U.S. Air Force)
In response to Venezuelan F-16 flights near U.S. forces last year, the Pentagon deployed 10 F-35 Lightning II fighters to Puerto Rico. The M/V Ocean Trader, a special operations ship, is also in the area.
Arrayed against the United States is what is left of the Venezuelan military after Saturday’s attack. The Pentagon has not released an after-action report, but satellite images show strikes on military installations and command centers.
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, a Maduro loyalist, remains at the head of the Venezuelan armed forces. He called the American action “a cowardly kidnapping,” but on Tuesday issued a statement endorsing the Supreme Court ruling naming Rodríguez acting president for 90 days.
“I call on the people of Venezuela to resume economic, work, and educational activities,” Padrino said. “The homeland must follow its constitutional course.”
Venezuela’s armed forces include 123,000 active-duty personnel and 8,000 reservists. Prior to Saturday, Maduro claimed he could also call on millions of civilian militias.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based defense analysis organization, describes Venezuela’s military as a regional power, equipped with Russian T-72 and French AMX-10 tanks, Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, U.S.-made F-16s, Mi-35 attack helicopters, and Mi-17 transports. Air defenses feature Russian S-300 long-range missiles, Pechora and Buk systems, and shoulder-launched weapons. Naval forces are limited to small patrol vessels and one Spanish-built coastal defense ship.
Drone capability remains uncertain, though ties with Iran suggest access to Mohajer and Shahed drones.
Global Firepower ranks Venezuela 50th in overall military strength, with a defense budget of $4.09 billion. The U.S. ranks first, spending $895 billion on the military.
Cancian said that any move to occupy Venezuela would likely take weeks or months to move the number of troops, vehicles and equipment needed to a staging area such as Puerto Rico.
“There could be additional missile or air strikes if the White House believes the Venezuelan government is not cooperating,” Cancian said. “But if the U.S. were to go all in and ‘put boots on the ground’ as President Trump suggests, it would not be a surprise. It would take a lot of planning and movement. You’d see, say, ships from Norfolk (Va.) going to North Carolina to pick up Marines from Camp Lejeune or the 82nd Airborne Division.”
