Russia is meddling in Armenian elections to harm Western interests

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Olivier Guitta is managing director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consulting firm. He was previously the director of research at the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign affairs think tank in London, and has briefed senior bodies across the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and the Middle East.

While the world’s attention is focused on the Middle East, another conflict could soon be reignited. National elections in Armenia on Sunday could result in the arrival of a new government that would likely renege on the peace agreement signed with Azerbaijan that President Donald Trump facilitated. Russia has a vested interest in seeing the pro-Western government in Yerevan kicked out.

On May 26, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a point of visiting Yerevan to affirm that the U.S. will move forward together with Armenia on the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) road-and-rail corridor running through southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakchivan. The strategic partnership signed by Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan will not only further advance the development of the TRIPP trade route, which will bypass both Russia and Iran, but will also expand cooperation on critical minerals and artificial intelligence development.

Under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party, Armenia has been quietly but determinedly turning toward the West. On May 28, Trump enthusiastically endorsed Pashinyan in a post on Truth Social.

One country that categorically opposes this rapprochement is Russia. While Pashinyan and his party are likely to remain the leading political force, the opposition parties are overall pro-Russian. Also, a substantial bloc of roughly 30–40% of voters remains undecided or uncommitted, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

Russia’s reluctance to relinquish its historical stronghold in Armenia was examined by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in a February backgrounder, “Russia Won’t Give Up Its Influence in Armenia Without a Fight.”  Moscow has held sway over Yerevan since the time of the czars, and the relationship continued through the rise and fall of the USSR.

The stakes for Moscow are high, and clear signs of rising tensions between the two capitals became public when Armenia hosted a high delegation of European Union representatives and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the 8th European Political Community summit and the first-ever bilateral EU-Armenia summit in early May. On May 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin angrily accused Armenia of providing Zelenskyy with “a platform for anti-Russia remarks.” The Russian president explicitly compared Armenia’s drift toward the EU with Ukraine’s path before 2014, and warned that Yerevan’s course could lead to a similar “Ukrainian scenario.”

Reports indicate that Moscow is actively using a network of oligarchs, corrupt former officials, and proxies to undermine Pashinyan’s peace-seeking and Western-oriented government. Two key figures shedding light on its personnel and activities are Luis Moreno Ocampo, former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, and his son, Tómas. Leaked video materials began circulating online in late April, in which the Ocampos state that they are working with American Armenian lobbyists and certain European Parliament figures to organize campaigns to remove Pashinyan from power and to damage the possibility of peace with Azerbaijan. The father and son couple disclosed that their social media activities to influence the election outcome were paid for by Russian Armenians.

These efforts align with Russian interests in bringing pro-Kremlin forces (such as former President Robert Kocharyan’s circle and Russian Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan) back into power and to obtain the release of the pro-Moscow, former leader of the separatists in Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan, from prison.

At the same time, coordinated disinformation campaigns and hybrid attacks target Azerbaijan to sabotage the peace agenda. Armenian lobbyists are actively working to prevent the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan and to oppose peace, not only in the EU but also in the U.S. In April, a new EU civilian mission — to be known as the EU Partnership Mission in Armenia — was approved by the Council of Europe before deployment to Armenia, specifically to counter hybrid threats and help strengthen the country’s democracy.  

Moscow is also bringing economic pressure to bear on the country of only 3 million people. In late May, a temporary restriction on Armenian flower imports was abruptly imposed.  On May 27, Russia warned that it will “suspend or unilaterally terminate the Agreement on Cooperation in the Supply of Natural Gas, Petroleum Products and Rough Diamonds” if Yerevan continues moving forward with efforts to join the EU. As reported by Reuters, quoting Interfax, Armenia imported 82% of its gas from Russia last year.

Russia’s goal is clear: keep Armenia dependent, prevent peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, block the implementation of Trump’s TRIPP project for regional integration, and preserve its own declining influence in the South Caucasus. Through the combination of direct threats from Putin, pressure in and outside Armenia from pro-Moscow Armenian political and church figures, and quite probably other operations, as well as squeezing Armenia economically, Moscow is attempting to compensate for its poor performance in Ukraine, weaken America’s presence in the South Caucasus, reverse Armenia’s shift toward the West, and maintain the South Caucasus region in a state of cold conflict/controlled instability. It is high time for the United States and our European allies to coordinate a policy to keep the Russian aggression in check.