Trump’s China trip: More caution than consensus

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Arthur I. Cyr is author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia.”

President Donald Trump’s trip to China and the meetings with President Xi Jinping were long on ceremony, pomp and circumstance, but rather short on substance. There were no major breakthroughs, no formally confirmed agreements. The two did agree on the importance of “strategic stability.”

Given the unpredictable U.S. leader, there is always the chance that interchange will run off the rails of productive negotiation, at least in public perception. Recall the disastrous meeting in the White House in February 2025 with beleaguered but remarkably durable Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Probably the hardest moment came when Xi asked Trump if the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked the island. Trump replied rather elliptically that his plan is what matters and he has no specific comment.

Perennial tensions between Beijing and Taipei have been growing. China is engaging in ominous military maneuvers near and around the island.

U.S. policy regarding Taiwan is carefully ambiguous. Policy developed following President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China led to formal diplomatic recognition while maintaining strong involvement with the island. Both Presidents George W. Bush and Joe Biden stated publicly and bluntly that Taiwan would be defended if China attacked, but that was anomalous. Since the U.S. in 1979 formally recognized the government of China and ended formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, the carefully crafted stance has been unspecific.

In 1982, President Ronald Reagan issued two major policy statements about the situation. First, he made clear that Beijing was expected to pursue peaceful resolution of differences with Taipei. Second, addressing Taiwan anxieties, he reiterated U.S. commitments continued.

Washington continues to provide substantial defensive arms to Taiwan, and a current such package is now pending in Congress.

That may have spurred Xi’s own blunt Taiwan inquiry, along with China’s growing global assertiveness, but insecurity may also be a factor. China’s economy is enormous but increasingly troubled. The real estate market in particular is overbuilt and riddled with corruption.

Structurally, creating a market economy but insisting on strong strict government involvement is inherently contradictory.

This Trump trip follows an Asia safari with multiple stops in October last year. The full travel agenda included Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, in that order. Stopping first in Malaysia underscored the rising importance of that nation and Southeast Asia, comprised of nations traditionally at odds with China including Vietnam. A peace accord was signed between Cambodia and Thailand.

In Japan, Trump was presented with a golf club used by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was a formidable leader and especially close U.S. ally.

In South Korea, Trump headlined an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation conference of business leaders and met with visiting Xi in Busan. Gifts to the U.S. president included a replica of a gilded crown from the ancient Silla Kingdom, considered a national treasure.

This time, Trump and Xi were notably friendly in public, but reportedly in private conversations China’s president was adamant that outside interference regarding Taiwan is intolerable. Especially given this situation, the earlier trip through Asia remains extremely important as a reminder that China is engaged with, and surrounded by, a range of regional and bilateral agreements with Washington, primarily economic but also military.

The situation was far worse during the Cold War, when the U.S. recognized Taiwan, not China, and engaged China’s military in combat during the Korean War. Serious crises over Taiwan in 1955 and 1958 almost led to war.

In 1960, President Dwight D. Eisenhower visited Taiwan, dramatically confirming U.S. security commitment.

Historically, China has been reluctant to engage in aggressive warfare. During the Vietnam War, Beijing tolerated approximately 500,000 American military forces near their border without intervening directly.