China and Russia are making a once-in-a-generation play for Pakistan

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Manuel Matos dos Santos is a trans-Atlantic security analyst focused on geopolitical risk and great-power competition. He serves as Secretary-General of the Portuguese Atlantic Commission and previously led the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) International.

As the dust barely settled in Tehran, a mob of protesters tried to overrun the American Consulate in Karachi. Pakistani security forces, with support from U.S. Marines, repelled the assault. At least nine were killed and dozens were injured — one of the most serious violent confrontations at an American diplomatic compound in years.

The intervention may have prevented another Benghazi-style disaster that cost the lives of four Americans. But it’s also handed Beijing and Moscow a geopolitical opening in Pakistan at a time when American influence can least afford to lose ground.

Moments like this reveal where alliances truly stand. For decades the United States has treated nuclear-armed Pakistan as a key regional partner and a crucial counterweight in South Asia.

Yet the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent shockwaves through Pakistan, triggering anti-Western demonstrations in major cities including Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore. Protesters have vandalized United Nations offices and forced authorities to impose a three-day curfew. Even President Asif Ali Zardari publicly lamented the “martyrdom” of Khamenei.

Beijing and Moscow know how to exploit moments like this. When anti-Western anger surges, they quickly move in.

The pattern is not new. When Washington imposed an arms embargo during the 1965 India-Pakistan war, China stepped in with weapons and diplomatic support. A similar opening emerged after the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. The backlash in Pakistan allowed Russia to court Islamabad, culminating in joint military exercises between the two countries in 2016.

Today, that shift is happening in real time. Pakistan’s ongoing clashes with the Taliban have already drawn Moscow into the picture, with Russia offering to mediate the conflict. As one of the few powers maintaining ties with the Taliban authorities, the Kremlin is positioning itself as a regional broker.

At the same time China has been expanding its influence through economic power. Through the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beijing has become the largest foreign investor. That economic footprint is translating into deeper strategic alignment, with the two governments routinely backing each other on issues ranging from Xinjiang and Hong Kong to Kashmir.

This matters because Pakistan has long been central to America’s counterterrorism strategy in the region. Access to its airspace, intelligence services and logistical networks has helped Washington track militant groups across South and Central Asia. If that cooperation weakens, American intelligence capabilities will shrink dramatically.

The danger extends beyond Pakistan itself. A visible drift away from Washington would send a powerful signal across the region, encouraging other governments to hedge their bets. India already continues buying Russian oil despite U.S. pressure, while Bangladesh is steadily deepening ties with Beijing. A shift in Islamabad could trigger a broader strategic realignment across South Asia.

Violence in Karachi, therefore, cannot be dismissed as an isolated security incident.

The United States still has tools to shape the outcome. President Donald Trump has already begun using some of them. Last year Washington agreed to help develop Pakistan’s oil reserves and launched a critical minerals partnership aimed at challenging China’s dominance in strategic supply chains. Expanding these economic ties could deepen interdependence with Islamabad while encouraging closer security cooperation, including increased purchases of American defense technology.

Washington also has quieter instruments of influence. For decades the United States has worked with civil society and religious organizations across the Muslim world. One example is the Muslim World League, the world’s largest Muslim NGO. Under the leadership of Secretary-General Mohammad Al-Issa, the group partnered with Pakistan to promote girls’ education and produced the Islamabad Declaration, which frames educating girls as both a fundamental right and a religious obligation. By grounding the argument in Islamic teaching, the initiative directly challenges the Taliban’s ban on female education in Afghanistan and has helped spark rare internal tensions within the movement. Quiet diplomacy like this can reshape the political landscape without a single American boot on the ground.

Overlooking Pakistan right now would be a blunder America cannot afford. Washington cannot prevent China and Russia from making a play for Pakistan. But it can force them to prove they are prepared to do more than issue statements and free-ride on instability. That means tightening intelligence and counterterror cooperation against militant threats, deepening commercial ties in energy and critical minerals, and leveraging actors in the civic and religious space to prevent anti-Western narratives from gaining traction.

The good news for Washington is that both Beijing and Moscow have just exposed the limits of their model. In the current Iran crisis, neither has shown any appetite for the kind of costly commitment that defines a true security partner; both are hedging, mediating and protecting their own interests first.

The choice facing the United States, then, is straightforward. Treat Pakistan as an episodic problem, and it will keep drifting toward whichever power shows up with cash, attention and fewer conditions. Treat it as a live strategic contest, and Washington still has every chance to prevent South Asia’s balance from tilting decisively against it.

The window is open. It will not stay that way for long.