Beijing’s reliance on buying American technology allows us some leverage on how China treats us, and our allies. Simply blocking China and then standing idle while it goes around us isn’t a better option. (Dreamstime/TNS)
Wes Martin, a retired U.S. Army colonel, served as the first Senior Antiterrorism Officer for all Coalitions in Iraq and holds a MBA in International Politics and Business.
President Donald Trump’s meetings with counterparts in China, Japan and South Korea last week afforded an opportunity to adjust current relations with these top trading partners. They also provided a timely reason for self-reflection on lessons learned, going back at least to the 1980s.
Another top trading partner and fellow Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation participant, Canada, recently found itself in hot water over a misguided Ontario ad featuring President Ronald Reagan bashing tariffs, sparking justified retaliation from Trump. I’ll evoke the Gipper in a more appropriate way to make a point on trade and economic health.
Reagan imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese electronics. In response to investing billions of dollars and providing modern machinery to rebuild Japan after World War II, America was rewarded with unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property. Reagan balanced the playing field and “Japan’s Economic Miracle” began to fade.
Meanwhile, likewise digging itself out of the devastation of war, South Korea was finally able to embrace democracy and free enterprise. From my time as a young enlisted soldier working the Korea Demilitarized Zone in 1974 to living in Seoul as a senior staff member of U.S. Forces Korea in 2010, I witnessed the country transition from being a poor country to the 13th largest economy in the world.
Unlike Japan, and later at their expense, South Korea didn’t make the mistake of abusing American generosity and tangling with a strong U.S. president. South Korea now even dominates pop culture. Hyundai cars and LG TVs have large market shares. Samsung smart phones seem to be everywhere, American kids listen to K-pop, and the Squid Game series broke Netflix records.
There are consequences for trade decisions that artificially hold one side down, even if for valid reasons. We are seeing a similar dynamic in play from Washington over the past few years regarding export controls of chips and semiconductors to China. Though it’s one of our top trading partners, it’s also our primary economic and military rival. A “frenemy” in other words.
In 2022, President Joe Biden placed tough restrictions on selling these products to China over national security concerns that they will buy our own technology to outcompete us in artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. It was a rare occasion where most Republicans in Congress seemed to agree with him, especially the China “hawks.”
Though defensible in theory, the ban ultimately helped China because it has made great strides since then to develop its own chip and semiconductor industry to avoid relying on paying for ours. In reaction to the ban, they required 50% domestic chip usage in data centers, and later banned all NVIDIA chips from purchase, further undermining the top U.S. company in the industry.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has cornered the market in the developing world by signing agreements with 140 countries in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. It doesn’t take an economist to predict many of those places will probably buy Chinese electronics and AI related tools instead of American ones. That is especially true if the chips and semiconductors powering them are equal or superior to U.S. technology.
In an alarming opinion column this past May, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt claimed that China was “at parity or pulling ahead” of America on AI technology, adding that export controls “fueled efforts by Chinese entrepreneurs to keep training and commercializing AI … it’s a hard truth to swallow, but Chinese tech has become better despite constraints.”
So, the big winner by restricting China on chips and semiconductors appears to be … China. Its tech giant Huawei has expanded from a telecommunications network company to a global major player in smart watches, smart phones, laptops, electric vehicle smart components, and now chips. Beijing reportedly plans to triple AI chip output, effectively replacing NVIDIA in China and then striving to conquer their dominated-markets.
While Trump has wisely taken steps to roll back some of Biden’s overreach in the chip and semiconductor industry, more can be done to ensure American technology is not supplanted by China.
Beijing’s reliance on buying American technology is a good thing. It allows us some leverage on how China treats us, and our allies. Simply blocking China and then standing idle while it goes around us isn’t a better option.