By Mark Heinrich

Last month, the Navy conducted four scheduled test launches of unarmed Trident II D5 missiles from an Ohio-class submarine off Florida’s east coast. Some observers read the timing as quiet signaling toward Beijing’s buildup, while the Navy called the flights “routine reliability tests.” Both are likely true, and underscore a very important point: Deterrence only works when our fleet is well maintained and ready to deploy on demand.

America’s nuclear deterrent depends on submarines that most Americans never see. The Ohio-class ballistic missile fleet is the backbone of our nuclear triad. It is built to disappear beneath the oceans, and remains ready to strike on the worst day imaginable.

We witnessed how effective these submarines are earlier this year. In June, Ohio-class USS Tennessee did something unusual, by surfacing in the Norwegian Sea. These vessels are designed to remain undetected, so the move was clearly deliberate. It was meant to send a message to Moscow, after Russia sent a submarine and frigate on a high-profile voyage into the Caribbean. The message we sent back to the Russians could not have been clearer: Our fleet is ready and able to respond to any hint of foreign aggression.

Weeks later, when the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made nuclear threats against the U.S., President Donald Trump responded by ordering two Ohio-class submarines to move into the region, “just in case [his] foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.” Our show of readiness and deterrence worked again, causing Medvedev to fall silent.

As effective as our subs have been at keeping our adversaries at bay, our nuclear backbone is nevertheless under enormous strain. Our fleet grows older by the year, as our enemies grow bolder by the day.

The Navy has 18 Ohio-class submarines, 14 of which are ballistic missile submarines, and four of which are guided-missile subs carrying SEALs, tomahawk cruise missiles, torpedoes, mines and other munitions. When not deployed or on patrol, this aging fleet is in various stages of maintenance.

As submarines age, parts become harder to get. With current capabilities, the Navy cannot accurately predict our fleet’s maintenance and logistical needs, so parts are often cannibalized from other ships to keep our subs up and running. When boats are stuck waiting for parts, repairs drag on. And when one submarine is late getting out of the yards, another is delayed going in.

When maintenance schedules are suboptimal, a domino effect occurs. One Ohio-class sub’s delay lengthens another’s, which diminishes the entire fleet’s full deterrence capability.

The good news is that a solution to this problem already exists. For decades, high-stakes industries, from aviation to energy, have used commercial, off-the-shelf artificial intelligence to a) predict failures before they happen, b) optimize maintenance schedules, and c) ensure supply chains deliver what’s needed on time. Throughout our government and the private sector, predictive AI keeps vital systems running when failure is not an option.

The Navy already collects all the data it needs; all it needs is a cross-enterprise management system that eliminates informational silos between platforms, shipyards and depots, so that data can be fused, analyzed and acted on in real time.

The benefits of doing so are obvious. Predictive AI will alert our industrial base to manufacture critical parts before an emergency necessitates them, and reduce maintenance backlogs that will free sailors to focus on operations rather than scavenging for parts. With predictive AI, the Navy will be prepared to surge as many of its submarines as necessary, to meet the demands of the moment -- especially in a crisis.

Eventually, the next-gen Columbia-class will replace our aging Ohio fleet. However, onboarding of the Columbia class isn’t expected until 2029.

This timing matters because our rivals won’t wait a year, much less four, to take advantage of any perceived weaknesses. Russia continues rehearsing nuclear escalation and deploying its navy in bold shows of power. China is now fielding the largest fleet in the world. North Korea is testing longer-range missiles that put more of America within reach. The Ohio fleet must continue carrying the deterrent mission in light of constantly escalating threats.

That’s why off-the-shelf, commercial AI technologies that are proven, affordable, and quick to implement must be integrated into our fleet’s sustainment immediately. Doing so would help the Navy keep every Ohio-class sub ready, and ensure that our greatest deterrent continues to keep our enemies at bay.

Sustainment is deterrence. Our fleet’s readiness prevents adversaries from taking reckless action against us. We need all the best American technology at our disposal to maintain that advantage. If the Navy lets readiness decline, we embolden our enemies to strike. America cannot afford to do so — now or ever.

The technology to maintain readiness into the future is available and well within reach. All we need is the willpower, awareness and resources to implement it.

Mark Heinrich. a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, served as the 46th Chief of Supply Corps and Commander of Naval Supply Systems Command. He is now CEO of the Federal Division of r4 Technologies, a U.S.-based decision-intelligence company. r4’s main product is a predictive analytics software built to manage complex operations, which can also include sustainment and logistics.