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Typhoon 28W (Trami), # 53 FINAL

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 29, 2018

4 p.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: At long last, Typhoon Trami, after having thrashed Japan from one end to the other, is rapidly moving northeast away from Hokkaido, Trami’s last target, into the northwest Pacific Ocean. All bases are in TCCOR All Clear; now, they’re left to pick up the damage that Trami left in its wake. This is the final report on Trami.


6:30 a.m. Monday, Oct. 1, Japan time: U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Still not the best time to be out of doors, as staff civil and first responders are out making damage assessments and clearing safe zones. Best bet is to wait for TCCOR All Clear before venturing outside.

Typhoon Trami is currently making its presence felt around Misawa Air Base, with winds not quite as fierce as they were on Okinawa or in Kanto, but sustained 35-mph winds and gusts as high as 50 mph until 10 a.m., along with between 2 to 4 inches of rain.


11:45 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited. Yokota Air Base and Yokosuka Naval Base remain in TCCOR 1-C; those could be upgraded shortly as winds increase.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final warning on Typhoon Trami http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2818.gif, but it appears to just be getting started on U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain, with howling winds, 80-mph sustained winds and 100-mph gusts, with heavy rain lashing at windows and buildings all over Yokota. Air Base.

Trami made landfall at about 8 p.m. on Tanabe, a city on the western coast of the Kii Peninsula just south of the Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe metroplex — the same area where Typhoon Cimaron made landfall earlier this month and dumped plenty of rain on the Kansai region of Japan.

What a wild weekend it has been for Japan thanks to Trami, first for Okinawa and now the main islands. High-speed Shinkansen train service suspended, more than 1,000 flights grounded or canceled nationwide, even the rare step of shutting down Tokyo’s metropolitan rail service — which hasn’t happened since the Great Tohoku Earthquake of March 11, 2011.

No deaths reported thus far, but 75 people have suffered mostly minor injuries. Evacuation advisories were given to more than 1.5 million residents and nearly a half-million households in Kyushu and Okinawa were without power.


10:15 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Winds between 40 and 57 mph are happening now. In the event of 58-mph destructive winds or greater, TCCOR 1-E will be issued.

Trami is forecast to pass 176 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Sunday and 125 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni five hours later; MCAS Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.


9 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi has set Tropical Cyclone Condition 1-C (caution), with winds between 40 and 57 mph occurring on base. Other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain can expect similar upgrade or even TCCOR 1-E if destructive 58-mph or greater winds are recorded.

U.S. Army Garrison Japan (Camp Zama) has published a TCCOR timeline to its official Facebook page. Given the proximity of Kanto bases to each other, the timeline could be similar at Yokota Air Base and Yokosuka Naval Base. Zama expects to enter TCCOR 1-E between 1 and 4 a.m. Monday.

DODEA schools at Zama will be closed on Monday. Schools at Yokosuka can expect a two-hour delay to the start of classes, according to multiple schools’ official Facebook pages.


6:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: The good news is, Typhoon Trami has begun tracking rapidly northeast, skimming the coast of Japan’s Shikoku Island at a 29-mph clip. The bad news is, both U.S. bases in the Tokyo area and Misawa Air Base should brace for forecast destructive winds overnight Sunday and early Monday morning, even if for brief periods.

Trami remains forecast to plow through central Honshu, making landfall southwest of Kyoto early Sunday evening, then passing 70 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at midnight Sunday, then 103 miles southeast of Misawa at 7 a.m. Both U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain and Misawa are projected to be well within Trami’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive winds bands.

U.S. bases on the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1.

Residents are being warned to stay indoors and off the streets between 9 p.m. Sunday and 3 a.m. Monday. High-speed bullet train service will be suspended and train service in the Tokyo metropolitan area is expected to be shut down at 8 p.m. Sunday.

Here’s the latest forecast for Yokosuka Naval Base, which calls for 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday.

Misawa is not expecting destructive winds, but is forecast to be impacted by Trami between 5 and 9 a.m., with winds between 40 and 57 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain, according to Misawa Weather Flight’s official Facebook page.


2 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has joined all other Kanto Plain bases in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. A thunderstorm watch is in effect until midnight and a high-wind warning from 6 p.m. Sunday to 8 p.m. Monday at Yokosuka, according to its weather portal. It calls for 58- to 63-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday.

Also, East Japan Railways plans to suspend its train service in the Tokyo metropolitan area, including the busy Yamanote circular line, from 8 p.m. Sunday, according to NHK World-Japan.


1:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Access through both main gates to base has been restored.


11:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring at Sasebo Naval Base and/or its satellite properties. Sasebo’s main gate is secured. Meanwhile, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama have set TCCOR 1; destructive winds of 58 mph or greater anticipated within 12 hours.

 


10 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Yokota Air Base has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1, with other Kanto Plain bases sure to follow. Yokota’s official Facebook page states that non emergency-essential personnel should remain indoors between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. until the worst part of the storm passes. Updates will be provided when they become available.

U.S. bases on Okinawa entered TCCOR All Clear at 10 a.m. local time. Personnel are asked to use caution both on and off base to give way to work crews trying to clean up and repair damage from Trami, and there’s a ton of it.


7:45 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 in anticipation of passage by Typhoon Trami. It remains a significant Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts. While Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts Sasebo as being outside of Trami’s 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands, destructive winds are possible nonetheless.

 

Trami is forecast to pass 176 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Sunday and 125 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni five hours later; MCAS Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch. Here is Sasebo’s extended weather forecast.

Kanto Plain bases remain in TCCOR 2 and are expected to upgrade to TCCOR 1 Sunday morning. Trami remains forecast to be a significant tropical storm as it roars through central Japan, passing 90 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base around midnight Sunday, packing 69-mph sustained winds. Yokosuka Naval Base’s forecast calls for destructive winds and gusts overnight Sunday into Monday.

As for Okinawa, U.S. bases there remain in TCCOR 1-R, and it’s likely to be a very extended recovery period; this is the worst storm to hit the island since Jelawat in 2012. Power remains out to hundreds of thousands, scores of cars overturned in parking lots, trees, branches and power lines down; it’s going to take awhile to get repairs done and power turned back on. Only mission- and emergency-essential personnel should report for duty; non-essentials, PLEASE remain in your quarters until the all clear or seasonal TCCOR 4 is issued.
 


3 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 30, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R. Destructive winds are no longer occurring, but residents on and off base told to remain indoors until the all clear or season TCCOR 4 resumes so emergency responders and staff civil can assess damage and establish clear zones.

 


7 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Peak sustained 89-mph winds and 105-mph gusts occurred at 6:41 p.m., Weather Flight officials said.

  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E.


6 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Closest point of approach to Okinawa by Typhoon Trami has come and gone. But the worst may be yet to come for the island, for Trami’s southeast quadrant has begun to assail Okinawa with the most fierce wind and heaviest rain bands forecast for the next several hours.

In case you were wondering, yes, southwest portions of Okinawa did experience part of Trami’s eye, which explains why the winds died down so suddenly and it appeared as if the storm was over around mid-afternoon. Some even reported seeing people making runs to convenience stores and other places near their homes off base.

For future reference: That is the worst thing to do. Though Trami’s eye was quite wide and winds went away for a few hours, you saw how quickly the winds resumed, just as suddenly as they died out, and in the opposite direction and with more ferocity than before. As the PSAs on AFN TV and radio suggest, you only get one chance.

As it is, Okinawa remains well within Trami’s 64-knot (75-mph) wind band and peak winds of 110-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts remain forecast. Be safe. Please.

U.S. bases on Okinawa will remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) at least until 3 a.m. Sunday, perhaps beyond. There is no set timetable for when TCCOR 1-R will be issued; that is entirely up to Trami and how quickly it vacates the area.

And even when TCCOR 1-R is issued, especially with the battle Okinawa has waged with Trami, that is not the time to leave quarters and declare everything over. Staff civil and first responders must first fan out to survey damage and create safe zones. Undoubtedly, there will be damage to buildings, flooding in low-lying areas, trees and branches on the roads, downed power lines, etc.

As for Trami vacating Okinawa, it’s forecast to start rapidly tracking northeast toward Japan’s main islands, impacting them all the way until early Monday morning.

Fleet Activities Sasebo remains TCCOR 2 with TCCOR 1 expected to be issued later Saturday, though Sasebo Naval Base appears to be outside of Trami’s forecast destructive wind bands. Here is the latest weather picture for Sasebo . Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch; it’s not expecting damaging winds, though gusts of up to 58 mph could be expected.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain are also in TCCOR 2, with TCCOR 1 expected to be set later this evening, and the Tokyo area could get a heavy dose of destructive winds starting at 10 p.m. Sunday. Trami is forecast to pass 67 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 78 miles northwest of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi and 100 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base between 11 p.m. and midnight Sunday. Here is Yokosuka’s latest weather forecast.


6:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Okinawa has entered what could be a long period of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E lockdown thanks to Typhoon Trami, a Category 2-equivalent storm that’s approaching the island from the southwest.

Kadena Air Base’s forecast calls for southeasterly 70-mph winds gusting to 80 mph Saturday morning, shifting southwest at 110 mph gusting to 130 in the afternoon, shifting again northwest at 70 gusting to 80 early Sunday and diminishing from there.

The last wind-forecast timeline called for destructive winds to subside at about 3 a.m. Sunday, but that’s entirely up to the typhoon. There is no set period for how long TCCOR 1-E lasts, or when TCCOR 1-R (recovery) will follow. First responders and will survey damage and create safe zones. There may be floods, building damage, fallen trees and power lines. Stay indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 resumes.

Trami remains forecast to pick up forward speed and rapidly transit northeast, passing 186 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at 11 a.m. Sunday, 134 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni four hours later and 74 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at about midnight.

Sasebo, Iwakuni and Kanto Plain bases remain in TCCOR 3; expect Sasebo and Iwakuni to upgrade to TCCOR 2 by mid-morning and Kanto bases by late afternoon. Here is the weather forecast for Yokosuka Naval Base and for Sasebo.


4 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Sustained 58-mph winds and/or 69-mph gusts are occurring on bases on Okinawa. All outdoor activity is prohibited until the all clear or seasonal TCCOR 4 is issued.


Midnight Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Peak forecast winds for Okinawa have been dialed back ever so little, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update.

At 9 p.m., Trami was 193 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northwest at 9 mph and holding steady at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts. Trami is forecast to pass 23 miles west of Kadena at 3 p.m. Saturday with those same winds at storm’s center.

As of midnight, U.S. bases on Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). The instant readings of 58-mph sustained winds or 69-mph gusts are taken on island, the recommendation to go TCCOR 1-E (emergency) will be given, all outside activity will be prohibited and personnel restricted to quarters.

One slight change to the Okinawa wind-forecast timeline reported earlier: Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained is now forecast for 3 a.m. Sunday and below 40-mph sustained for 9 a.m. Sunday.

Sasebo Naval Base, Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 3, with upgrade to TCCOR 2 expected in the morning in southwestern Japan and afternoon in the Tokyo area.

Sustained winds should range between 92 and 110 mph as Trami makes its way rapidly northeast, passing 185 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Sunday, 133 miles southeast of Iwakuni five hours later and 75 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base around midnight.

Sasebo and Iwakuni might be safely outside of Trami’s destructive wind bands; the same can’t be said for the Tokyo area.


6:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = Midnight Friday.
  • Peak 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts = 3 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 2 a.m. Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 6 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Note that sustained 58-mph winds or greater meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-E (emergency), during which all outdoor activity is prohibited and non-essential personnel are restricted to quarters, on or off base.


6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo, Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Typhoon Trami’s arrival/passage. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

For the moment, all eyes remain on Okinawa – U.S. bases there remain in TCCOR 1-C – and the heavy stuff , vicious winds and torrential rain, forecast to begin in earnest overnight Friday into Saturday and continue into the wee hours of Sunday, followed by rapid clearing behind it.

A wind-forecast timeline will be posted as soon as it’s available, but there shouldn’t be big changes to previous ones.

While Sasebo and Iwakuni are bracing for Trami’s effects, the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track shows both bases may be spared Trami’s fullest fury.

Trami is forecast to pass 186 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Sunday and 132 miles southeast of Iwakuni five hours later – still packing a furious punch, 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts. But that’s at storm’s center. Both Sasebo and Iwakuni appear as if they’ll each be outside Trami’s 64-knot (75-mph) and 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

Here is Sasebo’s long-range forecast. Iwakuni’s forecast calls for 35-mph sustained winds and gusts between 52 and 58 mph as Trami roars past.

The same might not apply to the Tokyo area; Trami’s forecast track keeps edging closer … ever closer … to U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain. Trami is forecast to pass 78 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 87 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 110 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base at 11 p.m. Sunday. Here’s Yokosuka’s long-range forecast.

Schools serving the Camp Zama-NAF Atsugi communities are closed on Monday, DODEA and U.S. Army Garrison Zama officials told Stripes. Other schools might follow suit; stay tuned to your base’s official Facebook pages.


Noon Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are occurring on a base on island. All non-essential activity is suspended. All services outlets, commissaries, exchanges will close and all non-essential personnel sent home from work.


11:45 a.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for Sasebo Naval Base and its satellite properties, according to CFAS’ Facebook page. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR 4, but plans also to upgrade to TCCOR 3 at 3 p.m. Friday.

Trami is forecast to pass 182 miles southeast of Sasebo at 11 a.m. Sunday; CFAS can expect 46- to 52-mph sustained winds and 69-mph gusts as Trami roars past late Sunday morning. Trami is then due to pass 125 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 3 p.m. Sunday. Iwakuni’s forecast calls for 35-mph sustained winds and gusts between 52 and 58 mph on Sunday afternoon.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 4, and can expect an upgrade to TCCOR 3 sometime Friday afternoon. The storm is forecast to pass 87 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 95 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 117 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base at 11 p.m. Sunday. Yokosuka can expect southwesterly winds between 58 and 63 mph with 86-mph gusts overnight Sunday.

As for Okinawa, it’s still waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding upgrade to TCCOR 1-C. At 11:45 a.m., U.S. bases remained in TCCOR 1, with Trami forecast to pass 13 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 5 p.m. Saturday. Fierce winds and heavy rain are forecast throughout Saturday.


7 a.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: The winds have already become fierce on Okinawa, along with some scattered showers. Typhoon Trami has begun tracking northwest, albeit slowly — and the worst is yet to come on Saturday, with gusts up to 144 mph forecast for the weekend. (And rain. Lots of rain.)

Dozens of flights serving Naha Airport were canceled on Friday, with scores more certain to be grounded on Saturday and early Sunday. Thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of passengers are expected to be affected.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. AFN radio’s AM and FM bands are on simulcast and will provide up-to-the-minute information from now until Trami has passed. Now is the time to finish storm preparation before TCCOR 1-C is issued, sometime Friday morning.

Trami is forecast to pass 16 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 5 p.m. Saturday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 144 mph, making it a Category 3-equivalent beast. Trami is likely the worst typhoon to hit Okinawa in the last six years, the last being Jelawat in September 2012.

Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds or greater = 9 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of destructive 58-mph sustained winds or greater = Midnight Friday.
  • Peak 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts = 5 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = Midnight Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 6 a.m. Sunday.

Note that 40-mph sustained winds or greater meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph sustained TCCOR 1-E (emergency), and are likely to be much greater than 40 or 58 mph.

Once Trami makes the forecast curve around Okinawa, it’s due to start tracking rapidly northeast, along the southern coasts of Kyushu and western Honshu, through central Honshu north of Tokyo and south of Misawa Air Base into the northwest Pacific Sunday into Monday.

Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remain in TCCOR 4; expect upgrades to TCCOR 3 sometime Friday morning. Trami is forecast to pass 180 miles southeast of Sasebo at noon Sunday and 125 miles southeast of Iwakuni five hours later.

Sasebo’s long-range forecast calls for east-northeast winds between 23 and 29 mph with 46-mph gusts early Sunday, shifting north-northeast between 40 and 46 mph with 69-mph gusts at mid-morning, shifting north between 52 and 58 mph with 81-mph gusts at mid-day and diminishing from there. Iwakuni forecasts 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts Sunday afternoon.

Trami is forecast to pass 100 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 108 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 130 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base between 1 and 2 a.m. Monday, remaining a Category 1-equivalent typhoon along the way. All those bases remain in TCCOR 4, with upgrades to TCCOR 3 possible by afternoon. And all could be inside of Trami’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind band when it passes.

Yokosuka’s long-range forecast calls for southerly winds between 35 and 40 mph gusting to 58 mph early evening, shifting southeast between 46 and 52 mph gusting to 75 mph late evening, increasing to 58 to 63 mph and 86-mph gusts around midnight and diminishing into Monday morning.

Misawa can expect sustained 40-mph winds and 58-mph gusts as Trami passes 74 miles southeast at 9 a.m. Monday. No upgraded TCCOR at Misawa yet.


8:09 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 9 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = Midnight Friday.
  • Peak 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts = 2 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58 mph = Midnight Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph = 6 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58 mph to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


6:15 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: With every passing update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the closer Typhoon Trami’s forecast track takes it to Kadena Air Base, now looking at almost a direct hit come 2 p.m. Saturday.

If Trami continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass just 10 miles west of Kadena, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center as it roars past. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2; expect an upgrade to that early Friday morning, with caution and emergency TCCORs almost certain to follow.

An updated wind-forecast timeline will be posted as soon as available, but it probably won’t differ much from previous reports.

The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo has issued a weather alert for all parts of Japan from Saturday through Monday, stretching from Okinawa to Hokkaido.

There are several newcomers to the TCCOR scoreboard: Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and all major Kanto Plain bases have joined the TCCOR parade, issuing TCCOR 4 earlier Thursday afternoon. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

And with good reason. Trami is forecast to retain Category 2-equivalent strength as it picks up speed and skedaddles rather quickly along Japan’s main islands.

It’s due to pass 185 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at 9 a.m. Sunday, 131 miles southeast of Iwakuni five hours later, then burrow its way through central Honshu, passing 86 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at midnight Sunday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center. Even Misawa Air Base isn’t out of the woods; Trami is forecast to pass 83 miles southeast of there at 7 a.m. Monday, as a powerful tropical storm.


3:20 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.


2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: This one’s no joke, folks. And Typhoon Trami’s forecast track keeps edging closer … ever closer … to Kadena Air Base, with a rather extended TCCOR 1-E lockdown period possible as a result.

Trami keeps moving very slowly, but it has begun turning northwest, and like a lion getting ready to pounce, is set to curve around Okinawa, with the island well inside Trami’s forecast 64-knot (75-mph) and 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands. And it won’t really start picking up speed until after it leaves the Okinawa area.

Trami is forecast to pass 29 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 2 p.m. Saturday, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center. The center of the storm will miss the island, but that’s no saving grace; the right-front and right-rear quadrants, the worst of the lot, are forecast to pass right smack dab over the island, with all its heavy rain and windy fury.

Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa courtesy of the 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 6 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = Midnight Friday.
  • Peak 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts for Kadena = 2 p.m. Saturday (104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at northern parts of the island at 6 p.m.).
  • Winds diminishing below 58 mph = 2 a.m. Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph = 6 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 late Thursday evening and TCCOR 1 early Friday morning. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58 mph to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).

From there, Trami is forecast to hook northeast and pass 168 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, still packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts. Trami then brushes 124 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni four hours later, still packing a fierce punch, but both bases might remain outside of the destructive wind zone.

Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed TCCOR 4 for Sasebo and its satellite properties. Iwakuni should follow shortly.

Sunday should also be wet and gusty in the Kanto Plain, though Trami is forecast to make a wide pass, 103 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at 11 p.m. Sunday. But Trami will continue packing a mean punch as it nears Misawa Air Base, passing 56 miles southeast at 3 a.m. Monday, still packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts. Quite possible to see TCCOR 1-E up there.


7:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Typhoon Trami, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 6 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = Midnight Friday.
  • Peak 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts = 3 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 2 a.m. Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 6 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note: 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution), 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


6:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: It's not just Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni keeping one eye on Typhoon Trami. It could retain enough intensity that it might pass just south of even Misawa Air Base as a Category 2-equivalent storm.

Trami remains forecast to rumble 63 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at about 6 p.m. Saturday, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center as it roars past.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect an upgrade to that sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening.

As it rounds the bend and heads away from Okinawa, Trami should pick up forward speed and rapidly track northeast, passing 152 miles southeast of Sasebo at 11 a.m. Sunday and 102 miles southeast of Iwakuni four hours later, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

Misawa is far from out of the woods. Trami is forecast to pass 60 miles southeast of Misawa at 8 a.m. Monday. JTWC projects Trami to still be packing 104-mph sustained winds, with Misawa just inside Trami's 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands. Criteria that meets possible upgrade to TCCOR 1-E, rare for Misawa, but it did happen twice during summer 2016.


12:40 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Typhoon Trami, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 3 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 9 p.m. Friday.
  • Peak 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts = 3 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = Midnight Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = 9 a.m. Sunday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect that to be upgraded to TCCOR 2 sometime Thursday evening. A reminder: 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution), 58-mph sustained winds TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


11:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Typhoon Trami has weakened to Category 2-equivalent status and is forecast to diminish to just 98-mph sustained winds for most of Thursday.

But ... as Okinawa's luck would have it ... Trami is forecast to re-intensify into a Category 3-equivalent storm as it makes the big bend around the island and makes its closest point of approach to Kadena Air Base at mid-afternoon Saturday.

U.S. bases remain in Troppical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect upgrade sometime Thursday evening. An updated wind-forecast timeline should be posted shortly.

If Trami keeps moving as forecast, its very slow crawl north should terminate at mid-morning Thursday -- it's currently moving north at just 3 mph -- and pick up pace as the weekend nears.

Trami is forecast to rumble 28 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 3 p.m. Saturday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center as it roars past, with Okinawa just inside Trami's 64-knot (75-mph) wind band and well inside its 50-knot (58-mph) wind band. Destructive winds, in short.

Once past Okinawa, Trami is forecast to track rapidly northeast, passing 145 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at 11 a.m. Monday and 97 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni five hours later, still packing 105-mph sustained winds at center.

For now, Sasebo appears as if it might be spared destructive winds; maybe not so much Iwakuni, which appears as if it could rest right at the edge of the 50-knot bands.

Trami should remain a fairly powerful Category 2-equivalent storm as it passes 116 miles north-northwest of Yokota Air Base at 2 a.m. Tuesday, and a fairly significant tropical storm as it rolls about 50 miles southeast of Misawa Air Base at 11 a.m. Tuesday.


7 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Typhoon Trami courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = 6 a.m. Friday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds = 9 p.m. Friday.
  • Peak 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts = Noon Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58 mph = Midnight Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40 mph = Noon Sunday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. A reminder, sustained 40-mph winds meet the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58-mph to TCCOR 1-E (emergency).


6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Typhoon Trami has yet to make closest point of approach to Okinawa, yet already there's an eye further northeast, on Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, which could get a quick visit from Trami at the start of next week.

U.S. bases on Okinawa, meanwhile, remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Take a peek in the updates below for the wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa. As things stand at the moment, wind criteria for TCCOR 1-C could come by mid-day Friday and TCCOR 1-E early morning Saturday, though that could change depending on intensity and track speed.

If Trami continues moving as forecast, it's due to pass 56 miles west-northwest of Kadena Air Base at 4 p.m. Saturday, a little earlier than previously forecast, but still packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center. Okinawa should be well within Trami's 64-knot (75-mph) and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands, and for quite awhile, it would seem.

Trami is then forecast to rapidly truck northeast, passing 155 miles southeast of Sasebo and 104 miles southeast of Iwakuni, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center. Hard to say at this point what effect that would have on either base. PST will keep an eye on it.


5:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Here is the initial wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa for Typhoon Trami, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds = Noon Friday.
  • Onset of destructive 58-mph sustained winds = 3 a.m. Saturday.
  • Peak 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts = 8 p.m. Saturday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained = 6 a.m. Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained = Noon Sunday.

U.S. Forces remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Note that 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C and 58-mph TCCOR 1-E.


4:12 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Due to the approach of Typhoon Trami, U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


Noon Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Typhoon Trami continues its slow, leisurely crawl north, but remains on forecast track to give Okinawa a rainy, blustery weekend.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 3 sometime Thursday morning, with destructive winds forecast to hit Okinawa at mid-morning Saturday.

If Trami ramains on its current course, it's forecast to continue edging north into Wednesday evening, then pick up speed northwest, holding steady between 115- and 121-mph sustained winds as it curves around Okinawa starting Saturday morning.

Kadena Air Base's weather forecast calls for 40-mph sustained winds to begin about noon Friday and destructive 58-mph winds or greater at about 9 a.m. Saturday.

A brief rundown of TCCORs and what they mean:

  • TCCOR 4 = Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater possible within 72 hours.
  • TCCOR 3 = Within 48 hours.
  • TCCOR 2 = Within 24 hours.
  • TCCOR 1 = Within 12 hours. Students dismissed from schools and sent home.
  • TCCOR 1-C = 40-mph winds or greater occurring. Make your way indoors and stay there until all-clear is directed. Facilities on base will shut down and non-essential people sent home.
  • TCCOR 1-E = 58-mph winds or greater occurring. All outdoor activity prohibited.
  • TCCOR 1-R (recovery) = Destructive winds no longer occurring.  Remain indoors while staff civil and first responders survey damage and make things safe.
  • TCCOR SW (Storm Watch) = Storm is moving away but is still close enough to necessitate return to elevated TCCOR if destructive winds pick up again.

Aside from the fact that USFJ 15-4001 instruction mandates that people stay indoors during peak-wind periods, it's just the smart, safe thing to do. You only get one chance.

Just because from your tower or duplex window out the fence you see the locals going about their appointed rounds even though destructive winds are happening, does not mean it's safe for you to do so. The Japanese are used to it. Especially those in locales where hurricanes are hardly a bother, most Americans are NOT used to it.

Prepare for the storm in the meantime, while you still have time. If you live in a low-lying area susceptible to flooding, see if you can arrange to stay with a friend in a higher location.

Yes, there's every chance the storm could pass further west of Okinawa than forecast, caution and emergency TCCORs might not be needed, and all the preparation go for naught. But we don't know that. Best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. You only get one chance.


6 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Trami has shed its status as a super typhoon, but remains a very strong Category 4-equivalent storm as it slowly creeps north, and like a lion getting ready to spring toward Okinawa this weekend.

At 3 a.m., Trami was 434 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at just 3 mph, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

If Trami continues moving as forecast, it's forecast to keep diminishing as it moves slowly north for another day or so, resume a northwest track, passing between Okinawa and Miyako islands, then curve northeast around Okinawa.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Trami to pass 58 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 10 p.m. Saturday, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center and with Okinawa well inside Trami's 64-knot (75-mph) and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Expect that to change by mid-morning Thursday, assuming Trami keeps moving as forecast.

Trami's effects should be felt on Okinawa for quite a long time, starting Thursday evening. Kadena's long-range forecast shows easterly 25-mph winds and 40-mph gusts along with showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening.

Winds should shift to the southeast on Friday, 25-mph winds and 40-mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Saturday should see southerly 57-mph sustained winds and 72-mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 97-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts in the afternoon and evening, decreasing to 80-mph sustained and 95-mph gusts Sunday morning and diminishing from there.

Model guidance is finally coming into good agreement, as are the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles.

To put it mildly, this storm is no joke. If you haven't made preparations yet, now is the time. Make that commissary run for non-perishables, plenty of drinking water, diapers and wipes for the young'uns and food for the furry friends. Get those board games out of the closet and plan that run to the gasoline stand to fill up and to the ATM for at least three day's worth of currency should the power go out long term.

Once on the run northeast of Okinawa, Trami could pay a visit on southeastern Kyushu early Monday morning, passing 161 miles south-southeast of Sasebo at 3 a.m. and still packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts. Stay tuned.


Midnight Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Little change to previous reports. Trami clings to Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon status and could weaken to a regular typhoon by morning.

The latest forecast track has Trami passing 77 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base at about midnight Saturday, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center. Heavy winds and rain could last between 9 a.m. Saturday and 9 a.m. Sunday on Okinawa. Very little change to model solutions and forecast ensembles.


5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: With every passing update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, it appears as if Trami might pass closer ... ever closer ... to Okinawa late Saturday evening.

JTWC's latest forecast track projects Super Typhoon Trami to lose quite a bit of its punch, but still be packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center as it roars 76 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base at 11 p.m. Saturday.

Unfortunately, that puts Okinawa well inside of Trami's forecast 64-knot (75-mph) and 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands, and for quite awhile, almost all day Saturday and early Sunday morning.

Model guidance is coming into better agreement, with just a couple of western outliers. The spread among all model solutions is about 750 miles, according to a JTWC official, but those outliers are gradually trending eastward and could end up lining up with the majority.

GFS forecast ensemble still depicts a northeast track, and even CMC's ensemble is at last following suit. Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau track shows the same.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. No upgrade is imminent; it would likely happen sometime Thursday as Trami gets closer, and with destructive winds expected over the weekend.


Noon Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: For folks new to Okinawa, and for those who've never been through a typhoon, give this link a good read. It will help you prepare for a typhoon, and especially teach you what the Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness mean.

The weekend continues to look rough for Okinawa where Super Typhoon Trami is concerned. It should no longer be a Category 5, nor even a Category 4 at that point; the forecast track shows sustained winds between 121 and 132 mph at center, but all day Saturday and Sunday morning don't look good at all.

At 9 a.m., Trami was 486 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling west-southwest at 3 mph and holding steady at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast says Trami has peaked and should diminish gradually from there until the weekend.

If Trami remains on its present course, it's due to stay quasi-stationary for the next two days, then resume a northwest path, passing just west of Miyako island at mid-morning Saturday, then curve northeast around Okinawa, passing 132 miles northwest of Kadena at 6 a.m. Sunday.

There yet remains a spread of about 390 miles among model solutions four days out, so all this could change. Or it could all remain the same. Just a matter of time before things settle.

Whatever Trami's final path, it's the right-front quadrant of any tropical cyclone that's the worst of the lot, dragging north all that heat, humidity and warm sea surface with it. That appears to be the quadrant that could make things miserable for Okinawa over the weekend.

At this point, no change to Kadena's long-range forecast; U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for the moment. Expect TCCOR upgrades to begin Friday morning, with caution and emergency TCCORs possible at mid-evening Friday, then early Saturday morning.

International weather bureau tracks continue to fall in line with JTWC's, including Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau track and PAGASA's track in the Philippines.

Preparation and communication are key to being ready to meet any tropical cyclone. Pay attention to the TCCORs and what to do during each. Don't take unnecessary changes; don't go out during periods of destructive winds. Get your safe on, Okinawa!


6 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Looks as if Okinawa might experience some significant effects from Trami after all. Not Category 5-equivalent stuff, but destructive winds from the back side of the storm as it makes its forecast pass some 130 miles west of the island overnight Saturday into early Sunday.

This storm is no joke. It's forecast to become a big, wide beast by the weekend, with 34-knot (39-mph) wind bands stretching from the east coast of China to just west of the Daito Islands east of Okinawa -- a good 700 mile diameter.

While Okinawa won't be right smack in the middle, the forecast says it should be close enough to make for quite the nasty weekend.

At 3 a.m., Super Typhoon Trami was 483 miles south of Kadena Air Base, headed west-northwest at 7 mph and had intensified to Category 5-equivalence, 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts.

If Trami continues on its present course, it should curve straight north by mid-afternoon Tuesday and stall for the next couple of days, peaking at 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at center.

It should gradually weaken after that before resuming a northwesterly course toward Miyako Island, then curve northeast around Okinawa, passing 126 miles west-northwest of the island, with the island well inside Trami's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands.

Long-range weather forecast for Kadena calls for northeasterly 23-mph winds and 35-mph gusts on Wednesday, increasing to 31 and 44 on Thursday, shifting to easterly 32-mph winds and 48-mph gusts on Friday and increasing to 39-mph winds and 59-mph gusts on Saturday. Windfinder.com also calls for winds increasing on the weekend, overnight Saturday into Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Upgraded TCCORs could begin by Thursday as Trami gets closer to Okinawa and if destructive winds are likely.

All that said, there still remains some disparity in model guidance, now 782 miles, according to JTWC. While the GFS forecast ensemble mirrors the JTWC track and Windfinder.com supports it, the CMC ensemble continues to favor a straight run west, with some northeast outliers.

International weather bureaus have also fallen in line. Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau track also mirrors JTWC's track, as does the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA's track.

Still a wait-and-see game, given the model solution spread. Stay tuned.


11:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Super Typhoon Trami's latest forecast track edges a bit closer to Okinawa in the long term, as it now appears to be headed down a corridor between Japan's southwestern Ishigaki and Miyako islands by the weekend.

At 9 p.m., Trami was 1,072 miles west-northwest of Guam and 512 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed northwest at 9 mph -- slowing down somewhat -- and holding steady at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 200, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Trami is forecast to curve poleward at mid-morning Tuesday and crawl northward, quasi-stationary, for nearly two days, gathering strength and peaking late Tuesday at 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts, a Category 5-equivalent storm.

After two days of that, Trami is forecast to resume a northwest trajectory, passing 233 miles southwest of Kadena at mid-day Saturday packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center, but with Okinawa well outside Trami's 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands.

At least for the moment.

If anything, the spread among model solutions is widening -- now about 650 miles between central Taiwan and just west of Amami-Oshima, about 200 miles north of Kadena. GFS forecast ensemble continues to favor the northeast track around Okinawa, with Windfinder.com supporting that scenario, The CMC ensemble continues to depict a westerly track into Taiwan.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau track is pretty much aligned with the JTWC track, while the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA track keeps favoring a straight run into Taiwan.

In short, not much change to the previous report and still a ton of question marks hanging over Trami. Keep it tuned here.


6:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Trami has been upgraded to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It remains forecast to peak as a Category 5-equivalent storm and is keeping Ishigaki in the crosshairs for the moment.

At 3 p.m., Trami was 1,024 miles west-northwest of Guam and 550 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa and has curved northwest at 14 mph, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles north and 140 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Trami keeps on its present course, it's forecast to pass 256 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 8 a.m. Saturday, on a northwest passage taking it through Ishigaki at mid-day Saturday.

Trami is forecast to peak at 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday, remain a Category 5-equivalent storm for about a day and a super typhoon for about two days, gradually diminishing as it moves northwest.

It's beginning to sound like a broken record, but Trami's final forecast path remains open to question, as it has since the storm spawned four days ago.

There remains a 587-mile spread among model solutions, stretching from central Taiwan to Okinawa. The GFS forecast ensemble continues to depict a northeast curve around Okinawa, with outliers in both directions; and the CMC ensemble continues to favor a track toward Taiwan.

Windfinder.com corroborates the GFS ensemble's path, with even closer passage to Okinawa -- and stronger winds and gusts -- over the weekend. Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau track continues to favor the Ishigaki solution, while the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA keeps favoring a track toward Taiwan.

In short, the only thing certain ... is uncertainty. Stay tuned.


Noon Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Typhoon Trami remains forecast to achieve super-typhoon status sometime Monday evening, with Ishigaki Island, in southwestern Japan, remaining in Trami's crosshairs, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track.

At 9 a.m., Trami was 950 miles west-northwest of Guam and 597 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 12 mph, holding fast at 138-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 195 miles north and 160 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If it continues on its present course, Trami is forecast to reach super-typhoon strength at mid-evening Monday, and peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at mid-evening Tuesday, remaining a super typhoon for up to three days.

Model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on a track toward Taiwan, then a curve north or northeast around Okinawa and toward Japan's main islands. But there does remain disparity among other tracks and ensembles. Much remains up in the air.


6 a.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Ishigaki Island, in southwestern Japan, appears to be the new target for Typhoon Trami, forecast to reach super-typhoon strength sometime Monday afternoon and continuing through early Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track.

At 3 a.m., Trami was 855 miles west-northwest of Guam and 647 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 14 mph, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 185 miles northeast and 115 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Trami should reach Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon strength sometime Monday afternoon, then peak as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon early Tuesday morning, 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts, before gradually weakening as it continues toward land.

Which land remains the $64,000 question. Though model guidance remains pretty much unchanged, JTWC has adjusted its track a bit northeast, toward Ishigaki instead of Taiwan, as previously reported.

The Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA continues to depict a track toward Taiwan, while Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau lines up more with JTWC on a track toward Ishigaki.

Forecast ensembles continue to show a 440-mile disparity among solutions. The GFS ensemble continues to show a curve west around Okinawa, then northeast toward Japan's main islands, and the CMC ensemble continues to favor a straight-run west into Taiwan and China, in the same direction as Mangkhut earlier this month.

Windfinder.com continues to forecast a gusty, rainy weekend upcoiming, though with winds not nearly as fierce as they were calling for late Sunday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Destructive winds are not forecast for the island at this juncture. Kadena's weather forecast calls for gusts ranging between 25 and 42 mph all week, with showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the forecast period.

Still a guessing game, folks. Keep it tuned here.


11 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Typhoon Trami is strengthening rapidly, now up to 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts. It remains forecast to become the season's fifth super typhoon, peaking at 161-mph sustained winds at mid-morning Tuesday and continuing on a west-northwest track, but with one minor hiccough.

At 9 p.m., Trami was 788 miles west-northwest of Guam and 703 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west-northwest at 13 mph. Typhoon-force winds extend 25 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 195 miles northeast and 155 miles elsewhere, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Trami continues moving as forecast, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to reach 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at 9 a.m. Tuesday, then slow significantly and turn northwest briefly Tuesday before resuming a west-northwest track toward Taiwan.

It should venture into that area sometime late Friday or early Saturday, still packing 144-mph sustained winds.

Much depends on what happens in the long term, though. There remains a vast spread among model solutions, a maximum spread of about 540 miles, a JTWC official said.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau indicates a track toward central Taiwan entering the weekend, as does the CMC forecast ensemble.

The Philippines' weather authority PAGASA shows a track further south toward Kaohsiung and possibly the Babuyan and Batanes island groups being affected.

The GFS forecast ensemble favors a track curving just west of Okinawa, then northeast toward Japan's main islands, with Windfinder.com corroborating that possibility and suggesting a gusty, windy weekend for Okinawa. Yet JTWC's prognostic reasoning calls that scenario unlikely.

In short, the most certain thing at this point appears to be uncertainty. It might take another day or so for things to settle into a rhythm. Stay tuned.


6 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Typhoon Trami continues intensifying, up to 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center and has curved slightly, heading west-northwest at 11 mph.

Typhoon-force winds extend 30 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 190 miles northeast and 155 miles elsewhere, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Trami remains forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday, then diminishing slightly as it heads west.

Trami is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to keep heading west-northwest, though its ultimate destional continues to remain unclear.

A huge gap remains in model guidance. The GFS forecast ensemble still suggests a curve northeast around Okinawa through the Tsushima Strait near Sasebo Naval Base and Chinhae Naval Base. The CMC ensemble continues to favor a straight run west through Taiwan (or perhaps Luzon) with a few northeast outliers.

A slight chance that some slight effects may be felt on Okinawa, but nothing severe, at least at the moment. Kadena's weather forecast calls for winds picking up Tuesday and the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned.

Trami has also entered the Philippines Area of Responsibility and has been named Paeng by the national weather authority PAGASA. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals may be raised for the Batanes and Babuyan island groups later this week.


6 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Trami has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. And as Trami continues to strengthen, a solution on exactly where Trami will go continues to be elusive.

At 3 a.m., Trami was 836 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed west at 17 mph packing 75 mph sustained winds and 92 mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 190 miles from center to northeast and 65 miles to the southeast, according to the National Weather Service.

JTWC projects Trami to intensify rapidly into a Category 5-equivalent supertyphoon, peaking at 161 mph sustained winds and 196 mph gusts at center at 3 a.m. Wednesday, then diminish a tad as it heads northwest, approaching southern Taiwan.

But where to from there? There remains a 328-mile spread among model solutions, with the GFS ensemble still pointing to a northeast curve and the CMC ensemble favoring a straight run through Taiwan to the Chinese coast before curving northeast.


7:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 22, Japan time: Model guidance regarding Tropical Storm Trami remains divided between two main solutions: A possible straight-run west toward the Philippines, Taiwan or China, and a curve northeast toward the Tsushima Strait between Korea and western Japan.

At 6 p.m., Trami was 996 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 475 miles west-northwest of Guam, heading west-northwest at 14 mph, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 190 miles from storm’s center. A flash-flood watch and small-craft advisory remains in effect for the Marianas over the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track takes Trami west-northwest in the general direction of Taiwan by mid-afternoon Thursday. From there, it’s hard to say definitely where it goes. GFS forecast ensemble  favors the curve northeast, while the CMC ensemble favors the straight-run west with a few outliers.


6:15 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 22, Japan time: Tropical Storm Trami’s long-term future is getting more uncertain than previously projected.

The biggest question marks: Which way will it go, because model guidance is more vastly spread than ever in Trami’s brief life. And it could be Trami might have a brief life as a super typhoon, if at all.

At 3 a.m., Trami was 288 miles northwest of Guam, headed west-northwest at 14 mph, with 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 150 miles northeast of center and 60 to the southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

The tropical storm watch for Rota, Tinian and Saipan has been canceled, though the flash-flood watch and small-craft advisory remain in effect for the weekend.

Some models still project Trami to curve northeast after it tracks southwest of Okinawa, then curve northeast after grazing Taiwan’s northeast coast. Others favor more of a straight run toward Taiwan and China.

Long-range weather forecast for Okinawa notes a pickup in winds, rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 21, Guam time: Where will it go? How strong will it get? And when will it get there?

Those remain the big questions regarding the projected path and intensity of 28W, which was upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Friday afternoon. It continues lurking northwest of Guam, strengthening gradually as it moves northwest.

Model guidance remains unsettled, but appears to be pointing toward a possible path between Okinawa and Taiwan, with some solutions pointing toward a northeast curve afterward. And intensifying into the fifth super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season.

At 3 p.m., 28W was 145 miles northwest of Guam and 1,256 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving northwest at 10 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If it keeps moving and intensifying as forecast, 28W will peak at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along with a flash-flood watch and small-craft advisory for those three plus Guam through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

The question remains, where is 28W’s final destination? Will it make a straight run west into Taiwan or China? Will it curve east or west of Okinawa or over the island? JTWC projects a curve east of Okinawa; the GFS forecast ensembles paint a different picture. Stay tuned.


1 p.m. Friday, Sept. 21, Guam time: As-yet-unnamed 28W remains a tropical depression for the moment. But the long-range Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 28W to move within Okinawa’s general direction by the middle of next week.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along with a flash-flood watch and small-craft advisory through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

At 10:45 a.m., 28W was 75 miles north-northwest of Guam and 1,323 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed northwest at 15 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 28W keeps moving as forecast, it should begin curving north at mid-morning Monday, edging within 331 miles of Kadena at mid-morning Wednesday as a super typhoon, 161-mph sustained winds and 195-mph gusts.

But it remains way too early to draw definitive conclusions. Model guidance remains vastly divided, with a spread of 430 miles among track solutions five days out. It remains a guessing game. Stay tuned.


8:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 21, Guam time: A new tropical depression formed overnight just north of Guam. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts 28W to move west, possibly becoming the fifth super typhoon of the season and curving toward Okinawa by the middle of next week.

At 7 a.m., as-yet-unnamed 28W was 45 miles north of Guam, heading northwest at 9 mph. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

28W is forecast to become a tropical storm as early as Friday evening, then move west-northwest, rapidly intensifying as it goes, peaking at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts by early Wednesday morning.

The question at this point is where will it go. Model guidance is rather scattered, as are the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles. It’s a guessing game right now. Stay tuned.

7:45 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 20, Guam time: Well, that wasn’t much of a break – three days, to be exact – between Super Typhoon Mangkhut and a new tropical disturbance, on which the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert.

A flash-flood watch is in effect for Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan, while a small-craft advisory is in effect for waters around Saipan and Tinian, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

The disturbance, 92W Invest, is 105 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, tracking west-northwest at the moment. JTWC projects 92W to keep heading west-northwest in the general direction of the Philippines or Taiwan, and achieve tropical depression-status within the next few days.

Where it’s headed precisely, is anybody’s guess. There’s a vast spread among model guidance; so, too, with the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles. It’s wait-and-see time for now. Stay tuned.

If it becomes a numbered storm, it would be the 28th of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. If it becomes a named storm, it would be called Trami, Vietnamese for a type of rose tree.
 

Trami is forecast to pass 176 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 a.m. Sunday and 125 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni five hours later; MCAS Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.
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