Quantcast

Typhoon 10W (Maria), # 47 FINAL

At 6 a.m., Typhoon Maria was 592 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and was moving west-northwest at 16 mph, packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: July 5, 2018

2 p.m. Wednesday, July 11, Taiwan time: Typhoon Maria barreled ashore over south-central China late Wednesday morning, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake on Taiwan and Okinawa.

At 8 a.m., Maria was 125 miles northwest of Taipei, rumbling wesr-northwest at 22 mph, still packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

According to ChannelNewsAsia.com, some 3,500 people across the island were evacuated from areas prone to floods and landslides, with about 2,000 soldiers mobilized to help.

About 43,000 homes were without power at Maria's peak, and hundreds of flights serving Taipei's two airports were canceled.

On Japan's southwestern islands, 5,040 homes on Miyako and Ishigaki were without power as of 8:30 a.m. local time Wednesday, according to Okinawa Electric Power.

On Okinawa, 237 ferries were canceled along with 232 flights serving Okinawa, affecting 15,900 passengers, according to the Ryukyu Shimpo newspaper. Five injuries were reported, according to the Okinawa Times.

A gust of 82 mph was recorded on Zamami Island west of Okinawa, and 68 mph in Naha. Peak sustained winds on U.S. bases were 41 mph and biggest gust 59 mph on Kadena Air Base, according to Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

This will be PST's final report on Maria.


6 p.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: Typhoon Maria has put Miyako Island southwest of Okinawa in its crosshairs, pounding it with 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts before moving west toward Taiwan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Maria was 189 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving west-northwest at 18 mph as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, and headed right over Miyako. According to Okinawa Electric Power, 8,260 homes on Miyako and 540 homes on Ishigaki were without power as of 5:30 p.m.

If it remains on its present course, Maria is forecast to pass 59 miles northeast of Taipei at 3 a.m. Wednesday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Taiwan, according to its Central Weather Bureau.

Landfall over south-central China should occur at mid-day Wednesday, with Maria still packing Category 2-equivalent 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

In related developments, the Air Force is assessing damage to aircraft that remained at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, when Maria passed over the island when it was a tropical storm late last week.

Aircraft that were evacuated from Okinawa drew quite a bit of attention at its safe haven, Yokota Air Base, over the weekend.

Central Japan has taken a pounding from flooding caused by heavy rain falling on the central part of the country in the wake of Typhoon Prapiroon, which passed north of the area early last week.

More than 130 are dead, 50 missing and nearly 2 million were evacuated from the rain and flooding zone.


3:25 p.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Winds are not exceeding/no longer forecast to exceed 58 mph, but there still exists a probability of high winds due to the proximity of the storm. High winds may include gusts exceeding 58 mph and/or sustained winds meeting TCCOR 1-C criteria.


2 p.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Peak winds forecast for the island have come and gone. Please stay indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 is directed. Time for engineers and repair folk to venture forth to check for damage and establish safe zones in case of hazards.


1 p.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: Closest point of approach by Typhoon Maria to Kadena Air Base was 174 miles southwest at 11 a.m. Thus far, the strongest wind gusts felt on Okinawa have been 61 mph at White Beach and 59 mph at Kadena.

Still a way to go before Maria is completely out of the area, but according to the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight, we're no longer forecast to get 50-knot (58-mph) sustained winds:

  • Sustained 40-mph winds: Occurring now.
  • Sustained 58-mph winds: Not forecast to occur.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts: Forecast to occur at noon.
  • Winds subsiding below 40 mph: Midnight Tuesday.

Maria is still packing Category 3-equivalent 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at storm's center. Much of the heavy stuff is occurring down around Naha and Itoman, closest to Maria.

Miyako Island, to Okinawa's southwest, is taking the worst pounding at the moment, as one can see from this video, provided by New York-based meteorologist Robert Speta.

According to Okinawa Electric Power, at least 380 homes on Miyako were without power. Schools on Miyako, Tarama, Ishigaki and Taketomi islands were closed due to the storm,. according to national broadcaster NHK.

According to the Okinawa times, 178 flights serving Naha International Airport and Miyako and Ishigaki airports have been canceled.

Once away from Okinawa, Maria is forecast to keep heading west-northwest, pass 59 miles northeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, at 4 a.m. Thursday local time, then make landfall over south-central China at mid-day Thursday. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Taiwan, according to the Central Weather Bureau.


8:30 a.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: Occurring.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts: 9 a.m. Tuesday. (46-mph sustained, 58-mph gusts for Kadena).
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 2 p.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C. A reminder, 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, 58-mph sustained for TCCOR 1-E.


5:06 a.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condtion of Readiness 1-C (caution). Sustained 40-mph winds are occurring on a particular U.S. base.

Typhoon Maria continues to weaken, but remains a vicious beast at storm's center. At 3 a.m., Maria was 216 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed west-northwest at 18 mph, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

If Maria continues moving as forecast, it will pass 173 miles southwest of Kadena at 10 a.m. Tuesday


12:45 a.m. Tuesday, July 10, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a..m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 2 p.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. A reminder, 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, 58-mph sustained for TCCOR 1-E.


Midnight Monday, July 9, Japan time: Maria has been downgraded to a Category 4-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Its forecast track again has edged slightly further southwest of Okinawa, but it will remain close enough to make for a gusty Tuesday.

At 9 p.m., Maria was 294 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, tracking west-northwest at 17 mph, packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 80 miles north and 60 miles south of center and tropical storm-force winds 225 miles north and 180 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria keeps moving as forecast, it's due to pass 177 miles southwest of Kadena at 10 a.m. Tuesday, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, but those are confined to storm's center.

According to windfinder.com, Kadena and Torii Station should get 37-mph sustained winds starting at 6 a.m., peaking at 41-mph sustained winds and 59-mph gusts at high noon, decreasing below 35-mph sustained winds Tuesday evening.

Maria is forecast to keep tracking west-northwest after it exits the Okinawa area, plow between Miyako and Ishigaki, then pass 54 miles north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, at 3 a.m. Wednesday local time. A typhoon warning is in effect for Taiwan, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Landfall is forecast for about 10 a.m. local time Thursday over south-central China, about 300 miles south of Shanghai. Maria should still be quite powerful, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it slams ashore.


9 p.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


6:30 p.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a..m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 2 p.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. A reminder, 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, 58-mph sustained for TCCOR 1-E.


6 p.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: Maria is barely clinging to super-typhoon status, has increased its forward speed and its forecast track has edged a tad away from Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Maria was 378 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed west-northwest at 19 mph, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, a dropoff of about 10 mph in each category since Monday morning.

Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles east and 60 miles west of center, and tropical storm-force winds 230 miles east and 195 miles west of center, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria remains on its forecast track, it's due to pass 173 miles southwest of Kadena at 10 a.m. Tuesday, still packing Category 4-equivalent winds of 138-mph sustained and 167-mph gusts at storm's center.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. According to windfinder.com, winds for Kadena and Torii Station are forecast to peak at 43-mph sustained and 61-mph gusts at mid-day Tuesday.

Model guidance depicts a forecast track taking Maria just off Miyako's west coast. The GFS and CMC ensembles each agree on a track taking Maria just north of Taiwan or clipping its north coast.

JTWC projects Maria to pass 68 miles north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, at 3 a.m. Wednesday local time, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center. A typhoon warning has been posted for Taiwan, according to the Central Weather Bureau.


12:30 p.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a..m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 2 p.m. Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. A reminder, 40-mph sustained winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, 58-mph sustained for TCCOR 1-E.


Noon Monday, July 9, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.

Super Typhoon Maria has begun weakening, if ever so slightly, and its forecast track has again edged a bit closer to Okinawa over the last six hours, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Again, it doesn't appear as if destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are in the cards. According to windfinder.com, Okinawa can expect easterly 42-mph sustained winds and 66-mph gusts at mid-day Tuesday, with sustained easterly 35-mph winds or greater between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m.

At 9 a.m., Maria was 483 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, rumbling west-northwest at 18 mph, packing 155-mph sustained winds and 189-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 235, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria continues moving as forecast, it's due to pass 167 miles southwest of Kadena at 11 a.m. Tuesday, 40 miles further northeast and a bit sooner than previously forecast, and still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm's center.

JTWC's latest graphic shows Kadena just outside the edge of the 50-knot wind loop and well outside the 64-knot wind loop. But Maria's outer wind and rain bands still extend to Kadena and well beyond, meaning a gusty, rainy Tuesday is in the cards.

Model guidance continues to depict Maria heading south of Okinawa, as does the GFS ensemble and CMC ensemble. Not much time left before Maria passes Okinawa, but enough that Maria can still pass closer or further away. It is weather, after all.

Beyond Okinawa on Tuesday, Maria is forecast to plow over southwestern Miyako Island, just miss the northeast tip of Taiwan, passing 81 miles northeast of Taipei at 3 a.m. Thursday Taiwan time. It's forecast to still be packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts as it roars past Taipei.

Landfall should occur over south-central China at 8 a.m. local time on Thursday, with Maria still carrying 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it rams ashore.


8 a.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur.
  • Peak 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: Noon Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Tuesday.

U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. A reminder, sustained 40-mph winds meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, sustained 58-mph winds TCCOR 1-E.


6 a.m. Monday, July 9, Japan time: Super Typhoon Maria keeps maintaining 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts and its forecast track continues edging back toward Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

But Maria's forecast track continues to keep Okinawa just north of its 50-knot wind belt, so there's every chance the island could be spared Maria's full fury. We'll see.

The official forecast from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for easterly winds to pick up Monday afternoon, 18-mph sustained and 29-mph gusts.

That should increase to 23-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts Tuesday morning, and again to 58-mph sustained and 81-mph gusts Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Other weather sources show different forecaset wind speeds. According to windfinder.com, for example, Kadena  and Torii Station should see 38-mph sustained winds between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Tuesday, peaking at 45-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at high noon.

At 3 a.m., Maria was 592 miles southeast of Kadena, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. If it remains on its forecast track, Maria is due to pass 176 miles southwest of Kadena at noon Tuesday, still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 225 miles from center, according to the National Weather Service.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. That could be upgraded to TCCOR 2 or perhaps set to TCCOR Storm Watch later Monday, depending on forecast track and wind speed.


Midnight Sunday, July 8, Japan time: Already the most powerful tropical cyclone this season, Maria has intensified to 161-mph sustained winds and its forecast track continues to edge back toward Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

No, that doesn't mean Maria is on track to pass right over Okinawa. But it is coming closer, such that the windbands and rain might be a tad more strong than previously forecast.

At 11:35 p.m., Maria was 676 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, 685 miles northwest of Guam and 426 miles southwest of Iwo Jima and had picked up forward speed, moving west-northwest at 16 mph.

Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles from storm's center and tropical storm-force winds 225 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria keeps moving as forecast, it's due to pass 182 miles southwest of Kadena at noon Tuesday, 25 miles closer than in JTWC's and Pacific Storm Tracker's noon forecast.

Maria should still packing Category 4-equivalent winds at center, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts as it roars past Okinawa.

An updated wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa will be posted sometime Monday morning when it becomes available.

According to windfinder.com, Kadena and Torii Station can expect 35-mph winds and greater, from the east and later southeast, between 6 a.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday, peaking at 54-mph sustained winds and 68-mph gusts around mid-day.

As for beyond Tuesday, JTWC forecasts Maria to keep tracking west-northwest, knifing between Ishigaki and Miyako southwest of Okinawa; passing 48 miles northeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, at 4 a.m. Wednesday Taiwan time; then make landfall over south-central China, about 290 miles south of Shanghai around mid-day Thursday.


6:45 p.m. Sunday, July 8, Japan time: Super Typhoon Maria has intensified slightly,up to 155-mph sustained winds, and its forecast track has edged a tad back toward Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Still a better than good chance that Okinawa might yet escape truly sustained destructive winds. But a slight change in track that brings Maria closer means slightly stronger winds and rain showers come Tuesday. Which means it's still time to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

At 6:30 p.m., Maria was 773 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base and has picked up forward speed, moving northwest at 14 mph with 155-mph sustained winds and 189-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its present course, Maria should still pass well south of Okinawa, 196 miles southwest of Kadena at noon Tuesday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

Maria should remain far enough away that Okinawa might avoid being inside its 50-knot wind band. But according to Windfinder.com, the island can still expect 54-mph sustained winds and 74-mph gusts come mid-day Tuesday, along with heavy rain.


2 p.m. Sunday, July 8, Japan time: Here is the wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa from Super Typhoon Maria, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur at this time.
  • Peak 46-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: Noon Tuesday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Midnight Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. A reminder that sustained winds of 40 mph or above meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C, and sustained winds of 58 mph or above TCCOR 1-E.


Noon Sunday, July 8, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.


Noon Sunday, July 8, Japan time: Maria has regained super typhoon status, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and is still a couple of days away from Okinawa, but closing in.

Time to check and see what Okinawa might face come Tuesday when Maria is at its closest point to the island: 205 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at noon Tuesday, still packing Category 4-equivalent winds, 132-mph sustained and 161-mph gusts at center.

What does that mean for the island folk? Though storm's center will be quite a way's away from Okinawa, the northern part of the storm still features some nasty outer wind and rain bands, and yes, Okinawa could get some heavy gusts and squalls.

Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles from Maria's center and tropical storm-force winds 220 miles from center, according to the National Weather Service.

Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight official forecast calls for winds to start picking up Monday evening, 25-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts.

Expect that to increase to 37-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts Tuesday morning, then 59-mph sustained winds and 79-mph gusts as Maria roars past the island.

Depending on which weather site one views online or which app they use on their mobile phones, the wind speeds might vary, of course. Windfinder.com, for example, forecasts peak sustained winds of 55 mph and 74-mph gusts at noon Tuesday.

Model guidance continues to show Maria headed toward Taiwan.


6 a.m. Sunday, July 8, Japan time: Okinawa out of the picture and Taiwan in? Given the latest available from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model guidance, that's looking increasingly possible.

At 6 a.m., Typhoon Maria was 940 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and has finally picked up forward speed, moving northwest at 9 mph, stilll holding at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

If it remains on present course, Maria is forecast to pass 207 miles southwest of Kadena at 2 p.m. Tuesday. U.S. bases remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Depending on track, strength and forward speed, that might or might not change at all.

Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles east and 50 miles west of center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles east and 180 miles west of center, according to the National Weather Service.

JTWC projects Maria to increase slightly, back to super-typhoon strength; NWS states otherwise, that Maria might hold at 144-mph sustained winds before weakening gradually Monday as it heads west.

GFS ensemble depicts Maria making a straight run at Ishigaki Island and just missing the northern tip of Taiwan, while the CMC ensemble remains locked on Maria making landfall over northeast Taiwan.


12:15 a.m. Sunday, July 8, Japan time: South continues to be the word regarding Typhoon Maria, which is now forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass nearly 200 miles south of Okinawa, further south and a couple of hours earlier than previously projected.

At midnight, Maria was 978 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling northwest at 6 mph, holding steady at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles east of center and 50 west of center, and tropical storm-force winds extend 205 east of center and 185 west, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria continues moving as forecast, it's due to pass 194 miles southwest of Kadena at 5 p.m. Tuesday, still 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

A quick look at the infrared imagery provided by JTWC shows that while the heaviest winds are confined to Maria's center, wind and rain bands extend well north.

That could mean Okinawa might get another few days like it had last week when Typhoon Prapiroon popped in for a visit. Some wind, but a lot of rain squalls.

Model guidance remains slightly spread, with the GFS ensemble still depicting a track south of Okinawa and just north of Taipei, and the CMC ensemble still showing landfall over east-central Taiwan.


6:15 p.m. Saturday, July 7, Japan time: Far south enough to prevent a direct hit on Okinawa, but close enough to make for a gusty, rainy middle of the week for the island.

That appears to be the scenario regarding Typhoon Maria for the coming week. With every passing forecast, Maria's projected path continues to drift further south of Okinawa, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and model guidance.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. No word yet as to whether or when we might see an upgrade, but it could happen as early as Sunday.

At 6 p.m., Maria was 1,024 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling slowly north-northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 45 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 195 miles east of center and 175 miles west, according to the National Weather Service.

If Maria remains on its current course, it's forecast to pass 162 miles southwest of Kadena at 6 p.m. Tuesday, still packing Category 4-equivalent winds at storm's center, 132-mph sustained and 161-mph gusts.

At that distance, Okinawa should be spared Maria's full force. But Maria's 50- and 64-knot forecast wind bands do extend quite a ways out. Still too soon to tell, though, whether it might mean a TCCOR 1-E lockdown.

The GFS ensemble indicates a path well south of Okinawa clipping Taiwan's northern edge, while the CMC ensemble shows possible landfall over east-central Taiwan. And there does remain a slight spread among models.

Stay tuned, is the best advice. PST has an eye on things.


Noon Saturday, July 7, Japan time: Just as Maria remains just below super-typhoon status, so do the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track and model guidance continue to edge Maria further south of Okinawa and closer to Taiwan.

At noon, Maria was 1,070 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, creeping northwest at just 2 mph, holding steady at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center, Category 4-equivalent strength according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles east and 175 miles west of center, according to the National Weather Service.

If it remains on its current path, Maria is forecast climb back to super-typhoon status later Saturday, then turn west-northwest and swing 143 miles southwest of Kadena at about 8 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

That would put Kadena right at the edge of Maria's 50-knot (58-mph) wind band. The question being, how much will this change in the next couple of days.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. That may change as early as Sunday evening.

There's still a 167-mile spread among model guidance solutions, with the GFS ensemble depicting a track toward Ishigaki and Miyako, between Okinawa and Taiwan, while the CMC ensemble has Maria making landfall just south of Taipei. The next day or so should be interesting.


7:30 a.m. Saturday, July 7, Japan time: Not only does it appear more likely that Maria may pass south of Okinawa after all … for the moment, Maria has also lost its super-typhoon status, downgraded to a Category 4-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 a.m., Maria was 1,070 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, trudging west-northwest at just 5 mph and had slipped to 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts, equal to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 215 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

Maria is forecast to regain super-typhoon status later Saturday, maintain it for a half-day or so, then steadily weaken as it heads northwest in Okinawa's general direction.

If Maria remains on present course, it's forecast to pass 127 miles southwest of Kadena at 6 p.m. Tuesday, packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

That could mean Okinawa might be spared Maria's full force, but there is that northeast quadrant to worry about, where winds are most fierce.

There continues to be a slight spread among forecast models, with the GFS ensemble favoring a track closer to Okinawa and the CMC ensemble depicting a track toward Taiwan. Still one that bears considerable watching.


Midnight Friday, July 6, Japan time: Might there be a chance that Super Typhoon Maria doesn’t make a direct hit on Okinawa, after all?

Though the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track still indicates direct passage over Naha, forecast models indicate that south passage may be possible.

Over the course of Thursday, the GFS ensemble and the CMC ensemble have gradually begun depicting a track just a tad south of Okinawa.

But that’s still not good news for Okinawa. If Maria does track south of the island, U.S. bases on Okinawa could be in for a pounding mainly from Maria’s northeast quadrant. One of the worst portions of any typhoon, since it brings with it all that heat, humidity and moisture from the northwest Pacific basin.

Maria is still a few days out. Wait and see is the name of this game. A lot can change in 48 to 72 hours.

At 11:45 p.m., Maria was 1,075 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 546 miles south of Iwo Jima, crawling northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center, equal to a Category 4 super typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

If Maria remains on present course, it’s forecast to pass 23 miles southwest of Kadena, or right over Naha, at 7 p.m. Tuesday, still packing Category 3-equivalent winds, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 190 miles from center to the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants and 130 to the southwest quadrant, according to the National Weather Service. A small-craft and high surf advisory remain in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.


6 p.m. Friday, July 6, Japan time: It gets worse. Maria remains a super typhoon, is forecast to peak at Category 5-equivalent sustained winds early Saturday and pound Okinawa with Category 4-equivalent force Tuesday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 p.m., Maria was 1,118 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, headed slowly northwest at 7 mph, packing 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center, Category 5-equivalent strength, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It's forecast to peak early Saturday morning at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 45 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 185 miles north of center and 125 miles south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. A high-surf advisory and a small-craft advisory remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, even though Maria is 270 miles northwest of Guam.

If it remains on its present heading, JTWC projects Maria to pass 22 miles southwest of Kadena and right over Naha at 6 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts, equal to a Category 4 hurricane.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain for the moment in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect accelerated TCCORs to be declared starting around mid-day Sunday.

This is a bad one, gang. Time to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Give the story in this link a good read and start making plans and preparations for a lengthy lockdown stay indoors.

This is to ensure you're supplied up and not be in need for anything once TCCOR 1-E is declared and all outdoor activity is prohibited.

There is one bit of a silver lining. There does remain a slight spread among some forecast models, the GFS ensemble and CMC ensemble, of about 320 miles. But most of the models remain in tight agreement on a track right over Okinawa. Preparation is the best policy. Get your safe on, Okinawa!


Noon Friday, July 6, Japan time: Maria has become the second super typhoon of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season, joining Jelawat in late March.

And though it won't remain a super typhoon, a direct hit on Okinawa as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon remains in the cards for early Tuesday evening.

At noon, Maria was 1,158 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northwest at 7 mph, packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 35 miles from center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 155 miles north and 90 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service.

If it remains on its present path, Maria should diminnish slightly as it heads northwest. It is forecast to pass 16 miles southwest of Kadena, right over Naha, at 7 p.m. Tuesday, packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at center.

For the moment, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Given the current forecast track, that should start changing sometime Sunday.


6:15 a.m. Thursday, July 5, Japan time: Looks like Maria might become the Pacific’s second super typhoon of the season after all. And a direct hit on Okinawa could be in the cards – not as a super typhoon, but the island might take a pounding from Category 3-equivalent fury early Tuesday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 a.m., Maria was 1,198 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 212 miles northwest of Naval Station Guam, aka “Big Navy,” rumbling north-northwest at 9 mph and had intensified to 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts. Typhoon-force winds extend outward 35 miles from center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 130 miles north and 80 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service.

If it remains on its current path, Maria is forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at 3 a.m. Saturday and remain that way for at least a day. But that’s with Maria well out at sea, no immediate threat to land.

Maria should then curve northwest and gradually diminish as it heads toward Okinawa. Maria is forecast to pass 18 miles southwest of Kadena – right over Naha, if the track holds – and as a dangerous Category 3-equivalent storm, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

Talk about nasty.

There remains a 230-mile spread among solutions, but both the GFS ensemble and the CMC ensemble are each agreeing more on a possible direct strike on Okinawa.

Time to start preparing. This could be the big, mean one.


Midnight Thursday, July 5, Japan time: Maria continues its zig-zag walk as it heads away from Guam, now moving west-northwest and on a forecast track that may take it just south of Okinawa early Tuesday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 11:30 p.m., Maria was 1,255 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and 160 miles northwest of Guam Naval Station, aka “Big Navy,” is tracking west-northwest at 8 mph and has intensified to 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 25 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 140 miles from north of center and 70 miles from south, according to the National Weather Service.

But we probably won’t get our second super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season. JTWC projects Maria to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 172-mph gusts at 9 p.m. Saturday, just below super-typhoon strength.

If it remains on its current path, Maria is forecast to pass just 31 miles southwest of Kadena at 6 p.m. Tuesday, and remain a dangerous Category 2-equivalent typhoon, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center as it roars past.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement, with all depicting a path taking Maria straight over Okinawa. NAVGEM’s and GFS’s tracks are practically side-by-side right over Okinawa.

But there do remain some outliers. The GFS ensemble shows a spread of about 300 miles, from Miyako to Amami islands, and the CMC ensemble  is even wider, from central Taiwan to Kyoto, Japan. Give it another day or so for model consensus to tighten.


6 p.m. Thursday, July 5, Japan time: Well, that didn't take long., less than two full days, in fact, for Maria to strengthen into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon.

And now that it's hightailing it northwest away from Guam and the Marianas Islands, Maria appears, for the moment, to be taking dead aim at Okinawa, though there's still a sufficient spread among models to cause more than a shadow of doubt.

At 6 p.m., Maria was 122 miles northwest of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and 1,298 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, rumbling north-northwest at 9 mph, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center.

A flash-flood watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan through Friday morning, and a small-craft advisory through 4 p.m. Friday, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

Thus far, with the backside wind and rainbands still lashing the island, Guam has received 3.52 inches of rain, with the highest sustained winds 46 mph and highest gusts 62 mph at Guam's International Airport, according to the National Weather Service.

Here's a clip from KUAM News depicting some of the damage and clean-up effort on Guam.

So, where to from there? Okinawa or elsewhere?

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest warning has Maria becoming the Pacific's second super typhoon of the season, peaking at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Sunday, then curving northest in Okinawa's general direction.

JTWC projects Maria to approach Okinawa from the east-southeast, with closest point of approach 48 miles east-southeast of Kadena at 3 p.m. Tuesday, having diminished some, down to 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at storm's center.

Although models are coming into better agreement on a track toward Okinawa, there remains a vast spread among solutions; it was nearly 425 miles earlier Thursday.

The CMC ensemble depicts Maria headed anywhere from Taiwan to southwestern Honshu and all points inbetween. GFS and NAVGEM tracks take Maria just northeast of Okinawa and GEM closer to Kyushu.

So, while Okinawa appears to be in the crosshairs, it's still a good five days away, and a lot can change within 120 hours. Still, it wouldn't hurt to begin preparing for what would be the first storm of at least Category 2-equivalence to batter Okinawa this season.


6 p.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: Tropical storm warnings for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan have been canceled, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical storm conditions are no longer expected.

At 4 p.m., Tropical Storm Maria was 115 miles northwest of Guam, headed northwest at 9 mph, packing 70-mph sustained winds at its center. Tropical storm winds extend 140 miles north of storm's center and 100 miles south.


3:45 p.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam has been canceled, but remains raised for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

But Guam is far from out of the woods. A quick check of Tropical Storm Maria's backside wind and rainbands shows the island is in for several more hours of heavy rain and wind.

A flash flood remains in effect through Friday morning for all four islands. A thunderstorm and wind advisory remains raised for Guam International Airport until 6 p.m. Thursday. This thing's far from done. And Okinawa could be next.


12:30 p.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: A tropical storm warning has been extended through all four of the main Mariana Islands, Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Though Tropical Storm Maria has begun exiting the Marianas, its backside windbands are still making for a nasty Thursday afternoon and it should continue into the evening.

And as Maria leaves the Marianas, it’s apparently putting Okinawa in its crosshairs. Joint Typhoon Warning Center and forecast models are pointing to possible tracks either just north of Okinawa or perhaps a direct hit some time Thursday.

At 10 a.m., Maria was 65 miles northwest of Guam and 75 miles west of Rota, tracking northwest at 10 mph, packing sustained 69-mph winds and 86-mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend outward 90 miles north and 80 miles south of center.

Maria is forecast to keep tracking north-northwest over open water the next few days, peaking as the Pacific’s second super typhoon of the season, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at mid-morning Sunday.

It’s then forecast to turn northwest at mid-morning Sunday and make what looks like a direct run at Okinawa, decreasing in intensity as it moves. Maria is forecast to still be packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at 10 a.m. Tuesday as it approaches Okinawa.

Still, there’s some uncertainty whether it makes a direct hit or just misses Okinawa. JTWC reports a spread of nearly 300 miles among model solutions. This one bears considerable watching.


7:15 a.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: It’s happening. Tropical Storm Maria has strengthened to severe tropical storm-strength winds, with heavy rain falling and affects on Guam already apparent.

At 4 a.m., Maria was 7 miles south of Andersen Air Force Base and 17 miles northeast of the capital Hagatna, headed north-northwest at 10 mph packing 65-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts. Maria is forecast to move slowly northwest away from the island throughout the day, and heavy rain and gusts should continue throughout the morning, perhaps into the afternoon.

The National Weather Service has recommended all residents stay indoors as late as noon Thursday. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota with a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan. Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain in Condition of Readiness 2, while Guam remains in COR 4.

From the Department of Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense:

A thunderstorm advisory and a wind advisory is in effect for Guam International Airport until 6 p.m. Thursday evening. Thunderstorms are possible within 23 miles of the airport. Winds are forecast from the east-northeast at 29 mph with gusts to 44 mph in showers, shifting to the east-southeast at 39 mph with gusts to 54 mph in showers near noon Thursday.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan through Friday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected as Maria passes through the Marianas on Thursday. Due to its moving relatively slowly, there is potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially across Guam and Rota. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is possible with locally higher amounts, especially for Guam and Rota.

As for the long term, Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track continues taking Maria in Okinawa’s general direction. If it remains on its current course, JTWC forecasts Maria to become the second super typhoon of the northwest Pacific season, peaking at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at 4 a.m. Sunday, then diminish slightly as it comes within 250 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base at 4 a.m. Tuesday.

But forecast models continue to be scattered. The GFS ensemble depicts a track just north of Okinawa, with some models suggesting a direct hit on the island while others point toward central Kyushu; the CMC ensemble forecasts a more direct run on Okinawa with some variation.


1 a.m. Thursday, July 5, Guam time: Maria has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Its track has lurched to the west yet again, putting it on course to pass south-southwest of Guam overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

At 10 p.m., Maria was 78 miles south-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, tracking west-northwest at 9 mph and had intensified to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. If it remains on its present track, Maria is forecast to pass 9 miles southwest of Naval Station, aka “Big Navy,” at 5 a.m. Thursday, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

Damaging winds between 40 and 45 mph with 50-mph gusts in heavier showers are forecast for closest point of approach, according to the National Weather Service and Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense. The worst conditions are expected through Thursday morning as Maria makes its way northwest away from the Marianas.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4, with a tropical storm warning in effect for Guam and Rota and a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan and a flash-flood watch for all four islands. Rota remains in COR 2 while Saipan and Tinian remain in COR 3. Heavy rain and flooding is expected, especially for Guam and Rota, with 4 to 6 inches possible.

As it pulls away from the Marianas, Maria is forecast to gradually intensify and reach a peak of 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at 10 p.m. Sunday, when it’s expected to be about 360 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.

Though the JTWC track appears to take Maria close to Okinawa, forecast models remain scattered, with most agreeing on a path southwest of Kyushu and over the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. A few models depict a path to Okinawa; others take it right over Kyushu and into the Sea of Japan, or East Sea.


10 p.m. Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: Tropical Depression 10W’s track continues to wobble, although it’s fairly clear it will either pass right over Guam or just to its north through the Rota Channel, with heavy rain and strong winds forecast even after 10W passes, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

Damaging winds between 40 and 45 mph with 50-mph gusts in heavier showers are forecast for closest point of approach. The worst conditions are expected through Thursday morning even as 10W exits Guam and the Marianas Islands.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4, with a tropical storm warning in effect for Guam and Rota and a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan and a flash-flood watch for all four islands. COR 3 remains in effect for Tinian, Rota and Saipan. Heavy rain and flooding is expected, especially for Guam and Rota, with 4 to 6 inches possible.


7:15 p.m. Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: Tropical Depression 10W has intensified slightly and its path has zig-zagged back toward the northern tip of Guam, which should face somerthing of a gusty, showery Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota, a tropical storm watch for Tinian and Saipan, and a flash-flood watch for all four islands, according to the National Weather Service and Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

NWS projects TD 10W to rake the island with 35- to 40-mph winds and 50-mph gusts, and between 4 to 6 inches of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The worst part should come around 4 or 5 a.m.

At 4 p.m., TD 10W was 107 miles southeast of Hagatna, the island's capital, moving north-northwest at 8 mph and had strengthened to 35-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If it remains on its current path, 10W is forecast to clip the northern tip of Guam, 7 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, and 30 miles southwest of Rota at about 7 a.m. Thursday.

Long-term, the forecast track takes it in the general direction of Okinawa, peaking at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at 4 p.m. Sunday, when it would be about 500 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, according to JTWC.

But the forecast models remain all over the lot. The spread remains about 800-900 miles stretching from Okinawa to Kyoto, with an equal chance of hitting either or anywhere inbetween. This one bears considerable watching.


1:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: The most recent announcement from Guam Homeland Security and the Office of Civil Defense warns residents of the island to expect the worst conditions from Tropical Depression 10W between 4 and 5 a.m. Thursday.

10W has slowed somewhat, moving northwest at only about 5 mph. At 10 a.m., the storm was 167 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If it remains on course, 10W is forecast to pass 30 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base and make a near-direct hit on Naval Station, aka “Big Navy,” at 7 a.m. Thursday. It’s forecast to strengthen slightly as it approaches Guam, with the island expecting between 4 to 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding may be possible, GHS/OCD said.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota islands, while a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service.

Again, it’s still too early to say what part of Japan 10W will affect. Forecast models remain varied, with outliers depicting a track toward Okinawa while the eastern outliers show it headed toward Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu, and the rest inbetween. It’s a game of wait and see right now.


7:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: Tropical Depression 10W’s forecast track  has shifted west, with Guam its first destination early Thursday morning just as it strengthens into a tropical storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 a.m., 10W was 192 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, moving west at 10 mph and holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If it stays on its present heading, 10W is due to pass 23 miles southwest of Naval Station, aka “Big Navy,” and 46 miles southwest of Andersen Air Force Base between 2 and 3 a.m. Thursday, with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, with damaging winds of 39 mph or higher expected within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to be upgraded sometime Wednesday morning. Rota, Tinian and Saipan all remain under tropical storm watch and in COR 3.

Looking well ahead to the weekend, JTWC’s forecast track makes it appear as if 10W could be headed in Okinawa’s general direction. But the forecast models tell a slightly different tale, a vast spread with most models taking it toward Kyushu. Some outliers say western Honshu and Shikoku, with still another pointing toward Okinawa. It’s way too early to tell.


12:30 a.m. Wednesday, July 4, Guam time: Happy Independence Day.

Tropical Depression 10W has picked up forward speed, and its track continues to wig-wag a tad; it's now forecast to make a near-direct hit on Rota and pass northeast of Andersen Air Force Base early Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 p.m., 10W was 208 miles southeast of Andersen, rumbling northwest at 16 mph and holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If 10W remains on its present course, it's due to pass almost directly over Rota and 42 miles northeast of Andersen between 1 and 2 a.m. Thursday, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Guam remains in seasonal Condition of Readiness 4, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.

Rota, Tinian and Saipan to the northeast remain in COR 3, with a tropical storm watch in effect.

And quite apropos for a storm that's affecting Guam: If it becomes a named storm, 10W will be called Maria, a Chamorro woman's name. Well, Maria can be just about any nationality, but the name was lent to the Japan Meteorological Agency's list of typhoon names by Guam.

Where 10W heads after exiting the Marianas continues to be a question mark, though forecast models are starting to come into agreement on a track toward southwestern Japan, just northeast of Okinawa.

JTWC projects 10W to peak at 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts by 10 p.m. Saturday, at which point it's forecast to be 273 miles southwest of Japan's Iwo Jima.


6:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: Tropical Depression 10W's forecast track has been adjusted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It's now on track to knife its way between Tinian and Rota at mid-morning Thursday, and perhaps sparing Guam in the process

At 4 p.m., 10W was about 300 miles southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, headed northwest at 10 mph, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If it remains on its new current path, 10W is forecast to pass 17 miles southwest of Tinian and 44 miles northeast of Rota between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. Thursday,  just as it acquires Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

Saipan, Tinian and Rota are in Condition of Readiness 3, meaning destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours, according to Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Joint Information Center.

Guam remains in seasonal COR 4, but also remains in a tropical storm warning, according to the National Weather Service. 10W is forecast to pass 83 miles northeast of Andersen at 9 a.m. Thursday.

From the Marianas, 10W is forecast to keep heading northwest in the general direction of Japan. Still too soon to say whether it will affect Okinawa or Japan's main islands. JTWC projects 10W to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at 4 p.m. Saturday, still well away from land.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement, but there's still a vast spread, some taking 10W toward Okinawa, others toward central Honshu and Shikoku.


2 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: Guam is now under a tropical storm warning, according to the National Weather Service. Tinian, Rota and Saipan have entered Condition 3, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, according to the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Joint Information Center.


1:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: It's generally agreed that new Tropical Depression 10W will intensify rapidly as it moves northwest over the Pacific's very warm summer waters.

The question remains, which way it will go and where it will end up.

At 10 a.m., 10W was 236 miles south-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, crawling north-northwest at 6 mph, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

10W's wobbly forecast track is expected to take it just southwest of Guam late Wednesday evening, 68 miles southwest of Naval Station, also known as "Big Navy," at about 10 p.m. Wednesday, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guam and Rota islands, according to the National Weather Service. Guam can expect sustained 25- to 30-mph winds with gusts reaching 40 mph along with showers and scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

From there, 10W is forecast to make its way northwest, wig-wagging its way in the general direction of Japan Iwo and Daito islands. It's projected to reach 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts by 9 a.m. Saturday, but should remain well away from large land masses at that point.

Forecast models remain all over the place. The storm's very young. It'll take a day or three before those models settle down and a track becomes more pronounced.


7:15 a.m. Tuesday, July 3, Guam time: Tropical Depression 10W http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1018.gif spawned overnight Monday southeast of Guam, and is forecast to move northwest past the Marianas Islands in the general direction of Japan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 a.m., 10W was 275 miles south-southeast of Guam, heading northwest at 9 mph with 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts. It’s developing relatively quickly and is forecast to track northwest in the general direction of Japan.

Forecast models are scattered over the lot at this point, with some showing a straight northwest track toward Okinawa and others a more northerly curve toward Japan’s main islands, with arrival a week or so from now. JTWC’s initial forecast track splits the difference. This one bears close watching.


5:30 p.m. Monday, July 2, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert  has been issued on a system developing about 300 miles southeast of Guam, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

This one, called 91W Invest, is developing rather rapidly and could affect Guam and the northern Marianas by Wednesday or Thursday. Already, the National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement for the Marianas, stating that winds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph along with rainfall between 3 to 5 inches can be expected, mostly on Guam and Rota.

Forecast models are all over the lot at this point, with some suggesting Japan as a likely target, and others depicting straight runs at either Okinawa, which just got finished dealing with Typhoon Prapiroon, or Taiwan.
 

from around the web