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Tropical Storm 25W (Jebi), # 19 FINAL

Tropical Storm Jebi

U.S. NAVY

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 3, 2018

12:15 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 5, Japan time: Jebi, the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall over Japan in a quarter century, has been downgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It has moved back over water, the Sea of Japan, is moving north-northeast at 45 mph, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts and closest point of approach to U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain has come and gone. Yokota Air Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution); that should soon become TCCOR All Clear for all U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain as Jebi keeps moving away. This is the final report on Tropical Storm Jebi.


6 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 4, Japan time: Yokota Air Base has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) as of 6 p.m. Winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on Yokota and might continue until midnight. All facilities on Yokota are closed. Non-essential personnel are directed to remain indoors until the threat passes.

Typhoon Jebi made landfall about mid-day, first skirting the east coast of Shikoku Island, then plowing ashore over Kobe in central Japan, inundating Kansai International Airport, cutting power to nearly 1 million and forcing nearly 700,000 to evacuate, multiple news sources reported.

A video from NHK World showed Kansai Airport, open for a quarter-century on reclaimed land southwest of Osaka, having its runways flooded along with the terminal building.

Closest point of approach by Jebi  to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni and U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain has come and gone. High winds are forecast to continue into Tuesday evening, dying down as Jebi heads north into the Sea of Japan.

A high wind and heavy rain alert is in effect for U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain, which except for Yokota remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch, as is Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni.
 


6:15 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 4, Japan time: Typhoon Jebi continues to steadily weaken and has picked up forward speed as it continues on course for landfall Tuesday afternoon on the Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe area of Japan’s main island of Honshu.

 

At 3 a.m., Jebi was 279 miles south of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, headed north at 20 mph, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. If it stays on course, Jebi is forecast to nick the eastern edges of Shikoku Island, then plow ashore over Kobe around mid-day, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

Jebi remains forecast to pass well away from U.S. bases, 129 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni, 202 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 225 miles west-northwest of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi, 221 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base and 245 miles west-northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m. Tuesday.
 

6:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 3, Japan time: U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Destructive winds are no longer forecast; however, because Jebi remains close by, there remains a danger from winds and rainfall, and upgraded TCCOR may be needed if Typhoon Jebi’s track edges closer to Tokyo. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni also remains in TCCOR Storm Watch.

Jebi remains forecast to begin curving northeast overnight Monday with a mid-day Tuesday landfall projected for the Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe area, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 p.m., Jebi was 713 miles southwest of Tokyo and 449 miles south of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, tracking north-northwest at 13 mph, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it’s due to pass 136 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 11 a.m. Tuesday, then 198 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 220 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 216 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base between 5 and 6 p.m. Tuesday.
 


Noon Monday, Sept. 3, Japan time: Typhoon Jebi has slowed a little in its journey to central Japan, but remains on course for landfall over eastern Shikoku and the Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe area of central Japan by mid-evening Tuesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni is in TCCOR Storm Watch. Jebi continues to appear to be plotting a path between those two areas.

At 11:50 a.m., Jebi was 748 miles south-southwest of Tokyo and 518 miles south of Iwakuni, moving north-northwest at 13 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it’s due to graze the eastern edges of Shikoku, then plow into Osaka at 9 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts. JTWC’s latest track showed both Iwakuni and U.S. bases in Kanto to be well outside Jebi’s 50-knot (58-mph) destructive wind bands.

Jebi is forecast to pass 139 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 5 p.m. Tuesday, and 191 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 208 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base and 212 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama between 11 p.m. and midnight Tuesday.
 


6:10 a.m. Monday, Sept. 3, Japan time: Labor Day sees Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. Destructive winds aren’t forecast to occur, but there remains the chance of high winds due to Typhoon Jebi’s proximity.

Jebi remains on course to split the difference between Tokyo and Iwakuni, plowing ashore at mid-morning Tuesday at Shikoku Island’s eastern tip, then pass through Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe as a Category 1-equivalent storm, 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts.

At 6 a.m., Jebi was 788 miles south-southwest of Tokyo and 587 miles south of Iwakuni, headed north-northwest at 13 mph, still packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts. Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 220 miles northeast and 150 southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it’s due to curve northeast and hit Osaka head-on at about noon Tuesday. It’s forecast to pass 135 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni, 200 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 223 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 217 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base between 5 and 6 p.m. Tuesday.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain except for Yokosuka Naval Base remain in TCCOR 3.


6:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 2, Japan time: U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain except Fleet Activities Yokosuka have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track leans Typhoon Jebi a bit further west, away from the Kanto Plain and toward Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, but still well enough away from Iwakuni that Jebi’s 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands should not be a threat.

At 6 p.m., Jebi was 863 miles south-southwest of Tokyo and 719 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni, headed north-northwest at 14 mph and had diminished to 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles northeast and 150 miles southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it should make landfall Tuesday morning on the eastern tip of Japan’s Shikoku island, then plow through the Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto region at mid-afternoon Tuesday, still packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

Jebi is forecast to pass 136 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 1 p.m. Tuesday, and 204 miles west of Camp Fuji, 227 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama, 222 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base and 246 miles northwest of Yokosuka between 7 and 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Model guidance is in tight agreement, with the Global Forecast System ensemble pretty much mirroring the JTWC track except for a few outliers.


1 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 2, Japan time: Jebi has been downgraded to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center , and appears to be weakening as quickly as it strengthened en route to super-typhoon status last week as it makes its way toward Japan’s Kansai region..

At 12:40 p.m., Jebi was 905 miles north of Guam, 920 miles south-southwest of Tokyo and 794 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, moving north-northwest at 14 mph, still packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center. Its time for closest point of approach to Iwo Jima has come and gone.

Typhoon-force winds extend 45 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 175 miles northeast and 115 miles southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Jebi is forecast to pass 144 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 1 p.m. Tuesday, then 195 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 216 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 212 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base between 7 and 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Long-range weather forecast for Yokosuka Naval Base calls for southerly winds picking up Tuesday, 18- to 23-mph sustained and 35-mph gusts late morning, 35- to 40-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts late afternoon, diminishing to 23- to 29-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts in the evening, according to Yokosuka’s weather portal.

All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Iwakuni remains in TCCOR All Clear for now.
 


11:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 1, Japan time: For the moment, it appears as if Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni may remain out of harm’s way regarding Super Typhoon Jebi.

Meanwhile, U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, but it also looks as though Jebi might pass well enough west that those bases may be spared Jebi’s full fury. Okinawa might get a bit breezy, a shower or three, but little else.

At 11:20 p.m., Jebi was 1,014 miles south of Tokyo and 943 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni, headed northwest at 12 mph and holding steady at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. Jebi is forecast to gradually weaken as it heads toward central Honshu, Japan’s main island, and projected landfall over the Kii Peninsula in the Kansai region.

Typhoon-force winds extend 75 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 215 miles northeast and 155 miles southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it’s due to continue arcing northwest, then north, then northeast and plow ashore at mid-morning Tuesday over the southwest corner of Kii Peninsula south of Osaka and Kyoto, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Jebi is forecast to pass 196 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 9 a.m. Tuesday, and 168 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama, 165 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base and 149 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji between 3 and 5 p.m. Tuesday. Model guidance looks to be in good agreement except for a few eastern outliers.


5:45 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on the Kanto Plain have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 due to the approach of Super Typhoon Jebi. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

Jebi is forecast to put its super typhoon days long in its rear view mirror before approaching Honshu. But it’s still expected to be a powerful storm, forecast to buzzsaw its way through the Kii Peninsula south of Osaka and Kyoto at mid-morning Tuesday.

The Tokyo-Kanto Plain and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni each appear as though they’ll be outside Jebi’s forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands. That’s where the destructive winds are, the sort that call for top-graded TCCORs. Doesn’t look as though that will happen, but one never knows; hence, better to be safe than sorry.

At 5:30 p.m., Jebi was 1,058 miles south of Tokyo and 1,001 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni, headed northwest at 14 mph and still packing a wicked Category 4-equivalent punch, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center.

If Jebi continues on its present course, it’s due to pass 206 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 8 a.m. Tuesday, and 138 miles west-northwest of Camp Fuji, 161 miles west-northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 156 miles west-northwest of Yokota Air Base between 3 and 4 p.m. Tuesday. It will still be powerful, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

Model guidance has come into much tighter agreement, with the GFS ensemble portraying a track right over Japan’s Kansai region, with only a couple of eastern outliers.


12:40 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 1, Japan time: September begins with Super Typhoon Jebi starting to weaken some, but it remains a Category 5-equivalent typhoon — the third of the season, along with Jelawat and Maria.

Jebi’s latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center takes it a tad west of the previous report – Kii Peninsula, south of Osaka and Kyoto, once more settles into the crosshairs for possible landfall at mid-morning Tuesday.

At 12:30 p.m., Jebi was 600 miles northwest of Guam, 1,098 miles south of Tokyo and 1.070 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, traveling northwest at 13 mph, still packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center. The typhoon warning for the northern Marianas has been canceled.

Typhoon-force winds now extend 80 miles from Jebi’s center, and tropical storm-force winds 215 miles northeast and only 155 miles southwest, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Jebi continues on its present course, it appears as if Iwo Jima will be out of harm’s way; Jebi is forecast to pass 361 miles west-southwest of Iwo at about 4 a.m. Sunday, weakening as it continues north.

At 9 a.m. Tuesday, Jebi is forecast to ram ashore at the southern tip of the Kii Peninsula, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it makes landfall.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain are either in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5 or in TCCOR Storm Watch. Monitor your base’s official Facebook page or commander’s access channel for the latest upgrades.

Jebi is forecast to pass 138 miles west of Camp Fuji, 160 miles west of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 155 miles west of Yokota Air Base between 4 and 5 p.m. Tuesday, and 205 miles east-southeast of Iwakuni at 10 a.m. Tuesday.


Midnight Friday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Super Typhoon Jebi continues to hold steady at 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts as it remains on a westerly track. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Jebi to start curving northwest, putting Nagoya in its sights for possible landfall mid-day Tuesday, with possible destructive winds reaching as far east as the Kanto Plain.

At 11:50 p.m., Jebi was 1,174 miles south-southeast of Tokyo, headed west-northwest at 14 mph. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas, according to the National Weather Service. Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 190 miles north and 140 south.

If Jebi remains on its present course, it’s forecast to push just east of the Kii Peninsula and ram ashore around Nagoya, some 100 miles west of Tokyo, still packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni would appear to be well out of the way; Jebi is forecast to pass 238 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 10 a.m. Tuesday, then 91 miles west of Camp Fuji, 114 miles west of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 110 miles west of Yokota Air Base between 6 and 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Model solutions appear to be getting more settled on a track over central Honshu. Where precisely remains to be seen. Stay tuned.


6:30 p.m. Friday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Jebi has peaked at 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts, making it the strongest tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific season, surpassing Super Typhoons Jelawat and Maria.

Its latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track edges Jebi a bit closer to Tokyo and away from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni.

At 6:20 p.m., Jebi was 1,203 miles south-southeast of Tokyo, headed west-northwest at 16 mph, appearing ready to make a wide, slow curve northwest toward Japan’s main islands. The typhoon warning affecting Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas will be canceled once the last outer rain bands clear the area.

Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 190 miles north and 140 south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

If Jebi keeps moving as forecast, it’s due to make landfall over the eastern edges of the Kii Peninsula in central Japan, just across the bay from Nagoya, at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

It’s due to pass 104 miles west of Camp Fuji, 127 miles west of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 122 miles west of Yokota Air Base between 7 and 8 p.m. Tuesday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Yokota and Atsugi are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5; destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 96 hours. Expect those to be upgraded and other bases to join in the TCCOR parade.


Noon Friday, Aug. 31, Japan time: Jebi has become the third super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season. And it appears as if central Japan, already assailed by Typhoons Prapiroon and Cimaron, just can’t buy a break.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track takes Jebi over pretty much the same area that Cimaron did last week – right over the Kii Peninsula just south of Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe, right around mid-day next Tuesday.

At 11:45 a.m., Jebi was 1,260 miles south-southeast of Tokyo, headed due west at 14 mph, packing 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at center. JTWC projects Jebi to top out at 180-mph sustained winds and 220-mph gusts sometime Friday evening, then gradually weakening as it curves north.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas, where destructive winds are occurring, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. Typhoon-force winds extend 60 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 195-miles north and 145 miles south.

If Jebi continues moving as forecast, it should make landfall over the Kii Peninsula at mid-day Tuesday, still packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it rams ashore. It should weaken considerably as it moves over land, then back over water in the Sea of Japan into Wednesday morning.

Jebi is forecast to pass 215 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 1 p.m. Tuesday, then 127 miles west of Camp Fuji, 142 miles west of Yokota Air Base and 146 miles west of Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi between 9 and 10 p.m. Tuesday.

A vast spread among model solutions remains. No accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness have been issued; that should start happening sometime Friday or Saturday. Stay tuned.


7:30 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 30, Japan time: Jebi remains forecast to peak as a super typhoon as the weekend approaches, and the latest forecast track puts it on course to edge just west of the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 p.m. Guam time, Jebi was 350 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, continuing to head west at 12 mph and had strengthened to 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

A small-craft and high-surf advisory are in effect for Saipan and Tinian, while a typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the northern Marianas. Typhoon-force winds extend 45 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 155 miles northeast and 100 miles elsewhere, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Jebi is forecast to top out at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts starting early Saturday morning and continuing for about a day, then gradually weaken as it curves north toward central Japan.

At first look from the JTWC, it appears as if Jebi will curve toward the Kansai region of Honshu, between Osaka and Nagoya, but model guidance favors a track just east of Tokyo in the next six days.


11:30 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 30, Japan time: It’s fairly certain that Typhoon Jebi could peak as the third super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, following Jelawat and Maria. The $64,000 question is: Where might it make landfall in Japan, if at all?

At 10 a.m. Guam time, Jebi was 388 miles northeast of Andersen Air Force base, headed west at 14 mph and had intensified rapidly, from 75- to 110-mph in just the last day. Jebi is due to peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at mid-evening Friday, still well out over water and in no way a threat to Guam or Okinawa.

Typhoon-force winds extend 29 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 155 miles northeast and 100 miles southwest of center, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Jebi is forecast to gradually begin arcing northwest and north. The question being where might it make landfall in Japan?

At first glance, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center track appears to take Jebi somewhere over central Japan, where Cimaron made landfall last week – and would make it the third major cyclone to hit central Honshu this season, as if it didn’t have enough wind and rain already.

But there’s a 760-mile spread among model solutions in the later forecast period, and the GFS model ensemble still points to the Tokyo area, which has also taken its share of cyclone this season. Stay tuned. It could get rough, no matter where Jebi heads.


Midnight Wednesday, Aug. 29, Guam time: Jebi has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, and remains on course to threaten Japan’s main island of Honshu, and perhaps Tokyo again, by the middle of  next week.

At 10 p.m., Jebi was 495 miles east-northeast of Guam, moving west at 15 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend 25 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds 140 miles north and 115 miles south of center, according to the National Weather Service.

Jebi is forecast to peak as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, 138-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center at mid-afternoon Saturday, passing 260 miles southwest of Iwo Jima at 4 a.m. Sunday.

By Monday, Jebi is forecast to curve north or northeast; model guidance remains split on how much and how quickly Jebi will curve, poleward or northeast. Whether it will threaten the Tokyo area remains to be seen. This one bears watching. Stay tuned.


10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 28, Guam time: Jebi has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and long-range model solutions indicate a track toward Tokyo by the middle of next week.

At 9:45 p.m., Jebi was 782 miles east-northeast of Guam, tracking northwest at 12 mph with 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts. A typhoon watch is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles north of center and 65 miles south.

At first glance, Jebi appears to be headed somewhere toward southwestern Japan, but long-range models  indicate a turn toward central Japan, with a track toward Tokyo – yes, again – possible in the coming six to eight days. This one bears watching. Stay tuned.


9:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 27, Guam time: The 25th numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific season has spawned well east of Guam. Its initial forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center moves it well north of the Marianas Islands northwest in Japan’s general direction.

At 9:30 p.m. Monday, 25W was 950 miles east of Guam and 260 miles west-northwest of Enewetak, moving northwest at 15 mph. It’s forecast to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts as it passes 255 miles south of Iwo Jima at mid-afternoon Saturday.

The initial GFS ensemble shows some disparity in solutions, although most models agree on a turn north, away from Okinawa and toward east-central Honshu, by next Monday. Too early to tell if it will threaten Tokyo. Stay tuned.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/25W_gefs_latest.png

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