The Iraqi government elected Jan. 30 will almost certainly ask the United States to set a timetable for withdrawing its troops, The New York Times reports senior Bush administration officials as saying.

According to the Times, the reports also warn that the elections will be followed by more violence, including an increased likelihood of clashes between Shiites and Sunnis, possibly leading to civil war, the officials said.

This assessment is consistent with other reports over the past six months, including a classified cable sent in November by the Central Intelligence Agency’s departing station chief in Baghdad. But the new assessments, from the CIA and the Defense and State Departments, focus more closely on the aftermath of the election, including its potential implications for American policy, the officials were reported as saying.

The assessments are based on the expectation that a Shiite Arab coalition will win the elections, the officials told the Times. Leaders of the coalition have promised voters they will press Washington for a timetable for withdrawal, and the assessments say the new Iraqi government will feel bound, at least publicly, to meet that commitment.

Such a request would put new pressure on the Bush administration, which has said it would honor an Iraqi request but has declined to set a timetable for withdrawing the 173,000 American and other foreign troops now in Iraq. Officials, including Colin L. Powell, the secretary of state, have said such decisions should be based on security needs, which include training more Iraqis.

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