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Typhoon 20W (Hagibis), #43 FINAL

U.S. NAVY

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: October 10, 2019

6:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 13, Japan time: Hagibis, the worst typhoon to hit Japan in 61 years, left at least two dead, 10 missing and 90 injured, 28 inches of rain in some spots, eight rivers flooding their banks, several dams opened to relieve overflowing, landslides … there was even a tornado reported over Chiba, and an unrelated 5.7-magnitude late Saturday.

All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain directed all clear overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with Camp Fuji the last one to go all clear at 5:30 a.m. Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its final warning on Hagibis at 6 a.m., with Misawa Air Base left to endure a rainy, gusty Sunday morning as Hagibis moves back out to sea.

 

11:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Typhoon Hagibis made landfall over the Izu Peninsula just before 7 p.m., according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. It rolled through the Tokyo area through mid-evening, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The amount of rainfall associated with Hagibis was well beyond the norm for most tropical cyclones that hit the Tokyo area. As much as 28 inches fell in some places, rivers flooded, residents evacuated and all that added water is going to take some time to run off.

But the worst is over. All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). That doesn't mean people can move about freely outdoors; staff civil and first responders are scurrying about inspecting damage and setting up safe zones around damage. Wait until the all clear is issued.

Misawa Air Base won't get the same sort of destructive winds that the Tokyo area experienced, but can expect gusts up to 58 mph and between 7 to 9 inches of rain until about 10 a.m. Sunday.


10:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Camp Zama, Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are the next of the U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Only Camp Fuji remains in TCCOR 1-E for the moment; that could change any time.

Stay indoors, though, until civil engineers and first responders have had a chance to check damage and establish safe zones. Wait until the all clear is issued. This is especially true at Yokosuka, which is the most exposed along Tokyo Bay and which took the hardest winds.

10 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Yokota Air Base has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater lasted only briefly. Stay indoors, though, until civil engineers and first responders have had a chance to check damage and establish safe zones. Wait until the all clear is issued.

9:23 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Yokota Air Base has become the fourth U.S. base in the Kanto Plain to enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited, save for those evacuating from off base to on-base lodging.


8 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi
and Camp Fuji have become the second and third U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to direct Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency).

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited. Personnel must remain indoors until the all clear is directed.

Meanwhile, Camp Zama has entered TCCOR 1-C. Damaging winds of 40 to 57 mph are occurring at Zama and its satellite properties.

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6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) for Yokosuka Naval Base and its satellite properties.

Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring. All outdoor activity is prohibited. Personnel must remain indoors until the all clear is directed.


5:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Typhoon Hagibis is curving northeast toward landfall right through the Tokyo area, with a near-direct hit on Yokosuka Naval Base still in the cards for mid-evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Hagibis has weakened steadily and is accelerating as it moves northeast, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center at 3 p.m., when it was 139 miles southwest of Yokosuka and moving north-northeast at 21 mph.

If Hagibis remains on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 10 miles northwest of Yokosuka, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

JTWC and local weather forecasts project Hagibis to move through rather quickly, but the wind field is quite vast, as much as 770 miles wide in some spots.

Yokosuka and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C and Yokota Air Base and Camp Zama in TCCOR 1; expect upgrades to those throughout the evening. As much as 9 inches of rain has fallen in some areas.

At least one dam on the Sagami River may be opened to relieve the overflow, which may affect the Zama-Atsugi area. A limited number of rooms are available at Zama Army Lodging, at personal expense.

Tama River levels are also rising sufficiently that Kanto Lodge is offering a small amount of rooms for those evacuating, and Yokota is also offering contingency quarters rooms once Kanto Lodge rooms are filled.

Again, a reminder: Stay indoors until the all clear is sounded. Keep your safe on!


2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi became the third U.S. base in the Kanto Plain to enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C, at 2 p.m. Damaging winds of 40 to 57 mph are occurring on base. Atsugi joins Camp Fuji and Yokosuka Naval Base in TCCOR 1-C.


1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Personnel at Yokota Air Base will be under a restricted movement order starting at 3 p.m., according to the base's official Facebook page. All personnel must remain indoors until the all clear is issued.


Noon Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Damaging winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on station. Outdoor activities limited to mission- and emergency-essential personnel.


7:20 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 as of 6 a.m. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.


6:15 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 12, Japan time: Not much change, yet, as dawn comes on Saturday.

Typhoon Hagibis remains forecast to draw an almost-direct bead on Yokosuka Naval Base, which remained in TCCOR 1 as of 6 a.m. All other Kanto Plain bases remained in TCCOR 2 as of 6 a.m. Expect upgrades throughout the morning as Hagibis approaches the Tokyo area.

If Hagibis remains on its current course, it's forecast to curve northeast and make landfall about 6 p.m., passing almost directly over Yokosuka and up to 25 miles southeast of the other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain between 8 and 9 p.m., packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Here's the updated wind-forecast timeline for Yokosuka:
-- Morning: East-southeasterly 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
-- Late afternoon: Southeasterly 58- to 63-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
-- Mid-evening: Southerly 81- to 86-mph sustained winds 104-mph gusts.
-- Late evening: Southwesterly 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
-- Overnight into Sunday morning: Southwesterly shifting to northerly 23- to 28-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts, diminishing from there.


11:15 p.m. Friday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Though Typhoon Hagibis is projected to weaken some as it heads toward Tokyo, the forecast remains quite grim.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to project Hagibis to pass through the Kanto Plain as a strong Category 2-equivalent cyclone.

Fleet Activities Yokosuka remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Winds meeting the criteria for upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) could come as early as 5 a.m., according to CFAY's official Facebook page, with possible upgrade to TCCOR 1-E by afternoon or early evening.

Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline for Yokosuka:
-- Early morning: Northeasterly 23- to 28-mph sustained winds, 35-mph gusts.
-- Mid-morning: East-southeasterly 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
-- Mid-afternoon: Southeasterly 52- to 58-mph sustained winds, 81-mph gusts.
-- Early evening: South-southeasterly 75- to 81-mph sustained winds, 104-mph gusts.
-- Late evening into early Sunday morning: Southwesterly 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts. Diminishing rapidly from there.

All other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 2; expect upgrade to TCCOR 1 sometime overnight or early Saturday morning. Here's a look at our story detailing preparations at various bases.

At 9 p.m., Hagibis was 403 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka, moving north-northwest at 14 mph, holding steady at 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts.

JTWC projects Hagibis to curve north, then northeast overnight Friday into Saturday morning, losing much of its punch but still forecast to ram ashore in Tokyo, passing within 21 miles of U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain and packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts between 8 and 9 p.m. Category 2-equivalent strength.

With almost all facilities and services on bases expected to be shuttered on Saturday, preparation time is pretty much gone. Once TCCOR 1-C and 1-E are issued, stay indoors and shelter in place. These are the sorts of winds in which it's difficult to stand up straight and even the most innocuous things like garbage can lids can become dangerous flying projectiles.

Once TCCOR 1-R (recovery) is issued, that's not the time to venture outdoors, either. Staff civil and first responders will fan out to survey damage and establish safe zones around fallen trees and power lines, building damage and floods, some of which could obsure live power lines, jagged broken glass from windows or tree branches or limbs. Wait until the all clear is directed.


6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

All other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have directed TCCOR 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are now anticipated within 24 hours. Here's our story on preparations at various bases.

5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Despite the cooler temperatures of northern climes, Misawa Air Base can expect its share of effects from Typhoon Hagibis, according to the base's Weather Flight's official Facebook page.

Peak winds are forecast to be 40-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts between 3 and 9 a.m. Sunday, with as much as 6 inches of rain, the Weather Flight stated. Conditions should worsen for those who travel south.

This, despite Hagibis' closest point of approach to Misawa being 184 miles southeast at 3 a.m. Sunday. Hagibis' wind field is vast, up to 550 miles wide.

Elsewhere, Yokosuka Naval Base has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Other Kanto bases should follow in the coming hours.

At 3 p.m., Hagibis was 467 miles south-southwest of Yokosuka, tracking north-northwest at 17 mph, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center.

If Hagibis remains on its current course, it's due to curve northeast starting early Saturday morning, then plow through the Tokyo area Saturday evening, passing 17 miles northwest of Yokosuka, 13 miles southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 17 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at about 8 p.m. Saturday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Bases in the Kanto Plain have extended in some cases hours at facilities such as hardware stores, commissaries and Exchanges for folks to finish preparing for Hagibis.

If you haven't done so yet, gas up and visit the ATM to get three days' worth of dollars and local currency in case the power goes off. Stay indoors with TCCOR 1-E and 1-R are directed. Don't take chances. You only get one chance. Get your safe on!


Noon Friday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Hagibis continues to weaken, but it's forecast to remain a Category 2-equivalent monster and continue north on course for a near-direct hit on Yokosuka Naval Base. As if things weren't bad enough last month with Typhoon Faxai.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect upgrades to those later today to TCCOR 2, then to TCCOR 1 early Saturday morning.

Virtually every on-base services outlet will shutter its doors all day Saturday and perhaps parts of Sunday. Too many to list, but for sure, keep an eye on official Facebook pages for Yokosuka, Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Camp Zama and Yokota Air Base in the coming hours for full details.

All flights serving Haneda and Narita are expected to be canceled, All-Nippon Airways and Japan Air Lines announced on their Web pages. Expect train service to be canceled as well, all day Saturday into Sunday.

Though folks living off base might see the locals going about their appointed rounds, that doesn't mean it's safe for people to be out of their homes. Once TCCOR 1-E is issued, stay indoors, and remain there even once TCCOR 1-R is declared.

At 9 a.m., Hagibis was 554 miles south of Yokosuka, tracking north-northwest at 14 mph, still packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center.

If Hagibis remains on its present heading, it's forecast to curve northeast at mid-morning Saturday, still weakening steadily, but should make a near-direct hit on Yokosuka around 8 p.m. Saturday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Yokosuka's weather forecast calls for the following:

  • Early morning: East-southeast, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
  • Early afternoon: East-southeast, 58- to 69-mph sustained winds, 92-mph gusts.
  • Mid-evening: East-southeast, 69- to 81-mph sustained winds, 110-mph gusts.
  • Late evening: Shifting west-northwest, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts and decreasing.

Things could be just as bad elsewhere; Hagibis is forecast to pass 24 miles southeast of Atsugi and Zama and 30 miles southeast of Yokota between 8 and 9 p.m. Saturday.

Hagibis should be long gone by sunrise or mid-morning Sunday, but expect a lengthy stay in TCCOR 1-R (recovery),especially at Yokosuka,  if Typhoon Faxai last month was any indication. This one could be just as bad, if not worse, than Faxai; expect it to take time to pick things up and repair damage. Meanwhile, get your safe on!


6:10 a.m. Friday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Hagibis has been downgraded from super-typhoon status, but it remains a vicious beast and headed for the Tokyo area late Saturday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. Expect TCCORs to be upgraded by Friday afternoon at Kanto Plain bases and again early Saturday morning as Hagibis approaches.

At 3 a.m., Hagibis was 624 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, headed north-northwest at 12 mph and packing 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at center.

If Hagibis stays on its present heading, it’s forecast to keep heading northwest for the next day or so, then begin curving northeast Saturday morning and passing through the Tokyo area, making a near-direct hit on Yokosuka Naval Base and 33 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base between 10 and 11 p.m.  Saturday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

Here’s the weather forecast for Saturday at Yokosuka:

  • Early morning: East-southeast, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts.
  • Early afternoon: East-southeast, 58- to 69-mph sustained winds, 92-mph gusts.
  • Mid-evening: East-southeast, 69- to 81-mph sustained winds, 110-mph gusts.
  • Late evening: Shifting west-northwest, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts and decreasing.

 

5:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 10, Japan time: U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, in advance of Super Typhoon Hagibis. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

Hagibis remains a Category 5 super typhoon and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center could remain so for at least the next several hours as it rushes headlong north toward a forecast rendezvous with the Tokyo area Saturday evening.

At 3 p.m., Hagibis was 752 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving north-northwest at 15 mph and still packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 155 miles northeast and 100 miles elsewhere from center and tropical storm-force winds 370 miles east and 295 miles west, according to the National Weather Service.

Yokosuka’s official Facebook page stated that the base could get damaging winds as early as 5 a.m. Saturday, with destructive 50-knot (58-mph) winds starting at 2 p.m. Yokosuka could be in TCCOR 1, 1 C (caution), 1-E (emergency) and 1-R (recovery) for as long as 19 hours, the base’s Facebook page said, adding that non-essential services could be shut down on Saturday.

Here is the weather forecast for Yokosuka, courtesy of the base’s Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command station:

  •  Saturday morning: 18- to 23-mph sustained winds, 35-mph gusts.
  • Early Saturday afternoon: 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
  • Early Saturday evening: 75- to 81-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts. Could meet the criteria for upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency).
  • Overnight Saturday into Sunday: 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

If Hagibis stays on its present heading, it’s due to curve northeast toward Tokyo Saturday afternoon, making a near-direct hit on Yokosuka and passing 20 miles southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 31 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at about 9 p.m. Saturday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it roars through Tokyo.

As if Faxai wasn’t bad enough last month, local news reports are saying Hagibis could set more records for wind speeds, rain and damage over the weekend. Expect suspension of commercial flights and mass transit, buses and high-speed trains, from late Friday into Sunday, according to reports. This storm is absolutely no joke. Prepare and prepare now.
 

3 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Long-range weather forecast for Yokosuka mirrors the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s projected track for Saturday evening — heavy winds expected from early Saturday afternoon, peaking in the early evening diminishing overnight.

Here is the weather prognosis for Yokosuka, courtesy of the base’s Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command station:

-- Saturday morning: 18- to 23-mph sustained winds, 35-mph gusts.
-- Early Saturday afternoon: 35- to 40-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts.
-- Early Saturday evening: 75- to 81-mph sustained winds and 110-mph gusts. Could meet the criteria for upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency).
-- Overnight Saturday into Sunday: 35- to 40-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Again, this storm is no joke. Time to prepare is now.
 

11:30 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 10, Japan time: It appears as though Super Typhoon Hagibis could motor through the Tokyo area sooner than earlier forecast, but could still be an awfully powerful Category 2-equivalent storm, putting Yokosuka Naval Base in its sights, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 a.m., Hagibis was 835 miles south of Yokosuka, remained a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts and moving north at 14 mph.

U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect upgrades to TCCOR 3 at those bases throughout the rest of the day. In TCCOR 3, destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

If Hagibis remains on its present course, it’s due to start weakening within the next 12 hours as it moves toward the Tropic of Cancer, cooler waters, strong vertical wind shear and other things that tropical cyclones don’t appreciate.

But this is not one to take lightly as it approaches the Tokyo area. JTWC projects Hagibis to still be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent intensity, as it makes a near-direct hit on Yokosuka, passing 17 miles southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 29 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at about 7 p.m. Saturday, five hours earlier than previously forecast.

The time to prepare is now. Avoid the long lines at the commissary and Exchanges. Bottled water, non-perishable foods, diapers and sanitary wipes for the wee’uns and food for the furry friends. Visit the gasoline stand and the ATM no later than Friday afternoon; get enough currency to last three days, in case the power goes out. Remember how Typhoon Faxai mistreated Yokosuka last month. Even if it doesn’t happen again, best to be prepared for the worst.
 

6:15 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 10, Japan time: All U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain area are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Expect those to be upgraded this afternoon and this evening as Super Typhoon Hagibis continues its journey north.

It is forecast to pass through the Tokyo area late Saturday evening and early Sunday as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon. Not as strong as it is now, but not to be toyed with, perhaps as intense as Typhoon Faxai was last month. Yokosuka Naval Base appears to be in Hagibis’ crosshairs. Time to prepare.

At 3 a.m., Hagibis was 918 miles south of Yokosuka, moving north-northeast at 9 mph, holding steady at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 115 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 335 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

If Hagibis remains on its present heading, it is forecast to keep moving generally northwest, gradually losing its punch as it goes, then turning northeast starting early Saturday morning, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it roars through the Tokyo area.

JTWC projects Hagibis to pass 10 miles northwest of Yokosuka, 21 miles southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 27 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base at about 10 p.m. Saturday.

 

6 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 9, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka became the first U.S. base in the Kanto Plain to set a Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, and hard to blame them, for they took the worst of Typhoon Faxai last month.

Expect other bases to follow suit in the coming hours. Naval Air Facility Atsugi’s official Facebook page stated the base would declare TCCOR 4 at 9 p.m.

While Hagibis remains a super typhoon, it remains well out over open water, and is forecast to weaken considerably as it approaches a weekend rendezvous with the Tokyo area.

That said, it’s a tropical cyclone, and all tropical cyclones are bad. Hagibis became the most powerful storm in the northwest Pacific this year, and is forecast to still be carrying Category 2-equivalent force, 110-mph sustained winds when it makes landfall in the Tokyo area at mid-evening Saturday and scores a near-direct hit on Yokosuka.

At 3 p.m., Hagibis was 1,025 miles south of Yokosuka, headed northwest at 12 mph and holding steady at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that Hagibis should remain at that intensity for another day, then start gradually weakening as it heads northwest, then curve northeast about mid-day Saturday, and still be packing 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts as it slams ashore late Saturday evening.

JTWC projects Hagibis to pass 12 miles northwest of Yokosuka, 18 miles southeast of Atsugi and Camp Zama and 26 miles southeast of Yokota Air Base between 11 p.m. and midnight Saturday, rapidly moving through the area and back out over water in to the northwest Pacific by Sunday morning.

6:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 9, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi has also entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 5; destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 96 hours. Expect all Kanto Plain bases to upgrade to TCCOR 4 before the day is over, with Super Typhoon Hagibis remaining bound for a weekend visit to the Tokyo area.


At 3 a.m., Hagibis was 1,118 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, and had restrengthened to 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 70 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds up to 280 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

If Hagibis remains on its present course, it’s forecast to peak at 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts within the next 12 hours.

JTWC projects Hagibis to keep moving northwest for another three days, then curve northeast and make a near-direct hit on Camp Fuji and pass just west of the other U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain between midnight Saturday and 1 a.m. Sunday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

 

6:45 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 8, Japan time: All typhoon-related watches and warnings for the southern Marianas Islands have been canceled, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. A high-surf warning does remain in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Meanwhile, Hagibis remains a super typhoon and on course for a weekend rendezvous with U.S. bases in the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 p.m., Hagibis was 360 miles north-northwest of Guam and 310 miles northwest of Saipan, headed west-northwest at 15 mph, still packing Category 4-equivalent intensity, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center, NWS and JTWC report.

Typhoon-force winds extend 85 miles from center, and tropical storm-force winds up to 300 miles northeast and 240 miles southwest, NWS reports.

Okinawa remains well out of harm’s way regarding Hagibis; there’s no closest point of approach to Okinawa associated with Hagibis and U.S. bases on island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Not so for the Kanto Plain, which can expect a near-direct hit on Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama from Hagibis at about 2 a.m. Sunday, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center, according to JTWC.

Yokota Air Base has already set TCCOR 5; destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 96 hours. Expect other bases to follow, and upgrade their TCCORs gradually as Hagibis continues approaching the area.

1 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 8, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam has been canceled and the island has resumed Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas, with Super Typhoon Hagibis continuing to move northwest of the Marianas. And Hagibis has even begun to weaken some, according to the National Weather Service.

At 11 a.m., Hagibis was 250 miles north-northwest of Guam, 185 miles northwest of Saipan and 1,203 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 15 mph and had scaled back just a bit, to 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts.

Still awfully powerful. Category 4-equivalent. Strongest storm in the Western Pacific this year, surpassing Wutip in February, which coincidentally passed through the same area, the Marianas.

Typhoon-force winds still extend 80 miles northeast and 50 miles southwest of center, and tropical storm-force winds 255 miles northeast and 180 miles south of center, NWS reports. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, with typhoon conditions forecast into early Monday afternoon.

If Hagibis continues on its present heading, it’s due to re-strengthen to 167-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts in the next 12 hours or so and maintain that intensity as it keeps moving northwest in Japan’s general direction by the weekend.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Hagibis to curve northeast starting mid-morning Saturday, with Yokosuka Naval Base taking a near-direct hit early Sunday morning, still packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts. This a month after taking a direct hit from Typhoon Faxai and all the damage that one caused.

7:30 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 8, Guam time: Forecast closest points of approach by Super Typhoon Hagibis to Guam and Saipan have come and gone.

Five days from now, it appears it will be the Tokyo area's turn to brace for Hagibis, though the Joint Typhoon Warning Center long-term forecast says Hagibis won't be nearly as powerful as it is now.

But for the moment in the Marianas, Conditions of Readiness remain in place until Hagibis has moved out of the area. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian and a tropical storm warning for Rota and Guam.

At 4 a.m., Hagibis was 210 miles north of Guam and 105 miles north-northwest of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 20 mph, holding steady at Category 5-equivalent intensity, 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 65 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles north and 155 miles south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Hagibis to peak at 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts Tuesday afternoon after moving out of the Marianas.

From there, it's a four-day journey over open water, moving northwest, maintaining super-typhoon intensity until crossing the 25th parallel and hitting cooler waters and an autumn climate near Japan's main island of Honshu.

If Hagibis maintains its forecast heading, it's due to creep within 68 miles of Yokosuka Naval Base at 3 a.m. Sunday Japan time, still packing Category 2-equivalent 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles are in better agreement on a curve northeast toward the Tokyo area, with a few outliers remaining. Stay tuned, though; much can change over five days.


11:30 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Super Typhoon Hagibis reached Category 5-equivalent intensity as it approached the Marianas Islands late Monday evening, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10 p.m., Hagibis was 220 miles northeast of Guam, 95 miles northeast of Saipan and 1,225 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west-northwest at 18 mph, packing 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts at center.

Typhoon-force winds extend 65 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 205 miles north of center and 155 miles south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian and a tropical storm warning for Rota and Guam, NWS reports.

Saipan and Tinian remain in Condition of Readiness 1, Government of Guam in COR 2 and U.S. bases on Guam in COR 3. Schools and most services will be closed Tuesday until Hagibis passes and seasonal COR 4 is restored.

If Hagibis remains on its current heading, it's forecast to pass 207 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 227 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Long term, JTWC projects Hagibis to peak at 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts at mid-morning Tuesday as it tracks northwest in Japan's general direction, weakening gradually as it curves north, then northeast central Honshu in Japan.

For the moment, Okinawa appears to be well out of harm's way; JTWC forecasts Hagibis to pass 456 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 9 p.m. Friday. U.S. bases in Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Model track guidance keeps Hagibis on course to make landfall sometime over the weekend just west of Tokyo. The GFS ensemble also depicts a northeast track toward the Kanto Plain, with some variations, while the CMC ensemble favors a track more toward the Kansai region with plenty of outliers.

More will be known in another day or so where Hagibis might impact Japan. Stay tuned.


10 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Here is a list of cancellations and closures due to Super Typhoon Hagibis. U.S. bases remain in Condition of Readiness 3 according to Joint Region Marianas. Government of Guam is in COR 2 and will remain so until Hagibis has passed.


7:15 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: In very short order, Hagibis has morphed into one big, vicious beast. And its growth is not yet done, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If Super Typhoon Hagibis remains on its present course, it's due to peak at 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts at center at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Fortunately, at that point, Hagibis should have passed its forecast closest point of approach to Guam and the other southern Marianas Islands and be well on its way toward Japan's general area come the weekend.

At 7 p.m., Hagibis was 240 miles northeast of Guam and 125 miles east-northeast of Saipan, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts.

Typhoon-force winds extend 50 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 175 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

JTWC projects Hagibis to pass 69 miles north-northeast of Saipan, 86 miles north-northeast of Tinian, 154 miles north-northeast of Rota, 192 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 213 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between 1 and 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas. DODEA schools are closed Tuesday for students; staff will report on a 2-hour delay.

Long term, JTWC's forecast track shows Hagibis passing 445 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 7 p.m. Friday Japan time.

Hagibis is then forecast to arc north to northeast in the general direction of Japan's Kansai region and gradually losing strength as it moves north.

Storm Tracker should know more in the next day or so what impact Hagibis might have on Japan's main island of Honshu. JTWC reports a spread of about 690 miles among solutions five days out. Stay tuned.


5:30 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Hagibis has strengthened into a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, according to the National Weather Service and confirmed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 4 p.m., Hagibis was 270 miles east-northeast of Guam and 165 east of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 15 mph, packing 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts at center.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian; destructive winds of 74 mph or greater are anticipated Monday evening into Tuesday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Guam and remains so for Rota; winds of 39 mph or greater are anticipated Monday evening into Tuesday.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 3, according to Joint Region Marianas. DODEA schools will be closed for students on Tuesday; staff will report for duty on a two-hour delay.


2 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Guam has entered Condition of Readiness 3 in advance of Typhoon Hagabis, according to Joint Region Marianas.

According to Guam High School's official Facebook page, Guam's DODEA schools will be closed for students. School staff is expected to report for work on a two-hour delay, 9 a.m. The Panthers' girls volleyball match is postponed and will be rescheduled.


12:30 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Well, that didn't take long, just two days, in fact. Hagibis has very rapidly strengthened into a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, and is set to pass north of the Marianas Islands overnight Monday into Tuesday.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, according to the National Weather Service. They should bear the brunt of Hagibis' southern quadrants. Not quite as bad as Yutu was last fall, but still a powerful beast -- and getting more powerful.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Hagibis to pass 62 miles north-northeast of Saipan and 80 miles north-northeast of Tinian between 11 p.m. and midnight Monday, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at storm's center.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Rota, and a tropical storm watch for Guam, which should feel some effect, but much less pronounced, NWS reports. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4, according to Joint Region Marianas, but that could change, especially if Hagibis tracks further south.

Hagibis is forecast to pass 185 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 205 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between 2 and 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Long term, JTWC forecasts Hagibis to peak as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon early Wednesday morning, but well out at sea, far from any land masses, and should gradually weaken as it turns north toward southwestern Japan.

At this point, Okinawa is not anticipating any impact from Hagibis, officials at Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight said.

Hagibis is forecast to pass 344 miles east-northeast of Kadena at 2 a.m. Saturday. U.S. bases on island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. That could change if Hagibis's forecast track edges closer to Okinawa.

Model track guidance and GFS and CMC forecast ensembles continue to depict a curve northeast; questions remain about the curve's timing and how strong Hagibis would be once it approaches land masses. Stay tuned.


7:15 a.m. Monday, Oct. 7, Guam time: Less than two days into its brief life, Hagibis has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Its lastest forecast track shows Hagibis passing north of the Marianas Islands overnight Monday and east of Okinawa as the weekend comes, JTWC and National Weather Service report.

At 4 a.m., Hagibis was 435 miles east-northeast of Guam and 360 miles east of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 16 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, according to NWS.

Typhoon-force winds extend 20 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 130 miles, NWS reports. Not the raging monster Yutu was last fall, but a powerful creature nonetheless.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian; 74-mph winds are anticipated late Monday into Tuesday. A tropical storm warning remains up for Rota and a tropical storm watch for Guam, NWS reports.

JTWC projects Hagibis to reach Category 2-equivalent status, 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, later Monday into Tuesday as it passes 189 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 208 miles north-northeast of Naval Station "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Long term, Hagibis remains forecast to peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon late Wednesday, but still well out at sea and forecast to gradually weaken as it keeps moving northwest, passing 327 miles east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 3 a.m. Saturday.

For now, it appears as if Okinawa should remain out of harm's way, well outside Hagibis' forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) windbands. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Much could change, however, as it has since Hagibis first appeared as a disturbance in the Marshall Islands a few days ago. A lot can change in a few days.

Model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles continue to agree on a curve northeast in the long term; questions remain about the timing of the curve and what areas might be threatened. JTWC reports a spread of nearly 430 miles among model solutions five days out. Stay tuned.


6:15 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, Guam time: Not much closer, but closer nonetheless. The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts Tropical Storm Hagibis passing a tad closer to Guam than previously reported.

At 4 p.m., Hagibis was 545 miles east of Guam, 495 miles east of Saipan and 1,886 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, tracking west-southwest at 21 mph and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center, according to JTWC and the National Weather Service. Tropical storm-force winds extend 100 miles from center, NWS reports.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan; destructive winds of 74 mph or greater are anticipated starting Monday afternoon, NWS reports. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Rota and a tropical storm watch for Guam as well; winds of 39 mph or greater are possible starting Monday afternoon.

If Hagibis stays on its present heading, it's due to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by early Monday morning, and pass 165 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 185 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday, about 35 miles closer than previously reported.

From there, JTWC projects Hagibis to track west-northwest in Japan's general direction, getting within 367 miles east-southeast of Kadena at mid-afternoon Friday as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. That's at end of JTWC's current forecast period.

Beyond that, model track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble depict a sharp turn northeast toward the Tokyo area with some outliers. The CMC ensemble remains all over the lot, with the best track showing a track toward Kyushu with outliers spreading as far west as Taiwan and east as Tokyo.

Bottom line: Still to early to make a definite call. Stay tuned. More to come. This post will be updated early Monday morning.


5 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, Guam time: A tropical storm watch has been issued for Guam as well as a typhoon warning for Tinian and Saipan by the National Weather Service at 5 p.m. local time.

Winds of 74 mph or greater are anticipated for Tinian and Saipan as well as other northern Marianas islands, and winds of 39 mph or greater anticipated for Guam starting Monday afternoon, NWS reports.


2 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, Guam time: A typhoon watch has been posted for Tinian and Saipan, and a tropical storm warning for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service on Guam, as Tropical Storm Hagibis continues approaching the Marianas.

At 1 p.m., Hagibis was 695 miles east of Guam and 620 miles east of Saipan, moving west at 21 mph and packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Tropical storm-force winds extend 110 miles from center, NWS reports. Typhoon-force winds of 74 mph or greater are possible on Tinian and Saipan and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater for those islands and Rota starting Monday afternoon, according to NWS.

If Hagibis remains on its present JTWC forecast track, it's due to pass 200 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 217 miles north of Naval Base "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Hagibis is forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon intensity at mid-morning Monday, keep tracking west-northwest in Japan's general direction, peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon at mid-morning Thursday and maintain that strength, 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts.

But Hagibis would still be a long way from land at that point provided the current forecast holds. JTWC projects that by 9 a.m. Friday, the end of the current forecast period, Hagibis would still be 401 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.

Long term, model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles depict Hagibis becoming a monstrous storm, but curving away from Japan's southwestern islands and headed more toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area a week or more out.

That is quite the change from previous forecasts, which indicated Hagibis headed more toward Kyushu or the Ryukyus. And it can change again. A lot can change in the span of a week. Stay tuned.


6:45 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, Guam time: Hagibis has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and remains forecast to track in the general direction of Japan by later in the week.

At 4 a.m., Hagibis was 870 miles east of Guam, 795 miles east of Saipan and 2,076 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and had strengthened slightly, to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan in the Marianas Islands, according to the National Weather Service.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4, with no watches in effect, according to Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.

If Hagibis remains on its present course, it's forecast to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon intensity by mid-afternoon Monday, continue on a west-northwesterly path toward southwestern Japan and peak as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon by early Thursday morning.

JTWC projects Hagibis to pass 212 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 236 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Model track guidance and best tracks by the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles agree on a curve northeast toward Japan's main islands. Questions remain on the timing of the track and how strong Hagibis eventually becomes. JTWC projects a spread of about 443 miles among model solutions five days out. Stay tuned. This post will be updated this afternoon.


Midnight Saturday, Oct. 5, Guam time: A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan in the Marianas Islands, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more are possible within 48 hours.

At 10 p.m., Tropical Depression 20W was 970 miles east of Guam, 895 miles east of Saipan and 2,146 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving west at 17 mph and had strengthened slightly to 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 20W continues on its present heading, it's due to 202 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, 224 miles north of Guam's capital Hagatna and 221 miles north of Naval Base "Big Navy" around midnight Monday, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at center.

But all three locales should remain well away from TD 20W's Joint Typhoon Warning Center-forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

Beyond that, TD 20W should continue generally west-northwest and peak at 150-mph sustained winds and 184-mph gusts, Category 4-equivalent super-typhoon intensity, late Wednesday as it approaches Japan but still a couple of days away.

There is a spread among model solutions in the long term, 345 miles five days out, according to JTWC. The GFS and CMC forecast ensembles do agree on a curve northeast; questions remain about the timing and how close 20W might come to which land masses in Japan.

Stay tuned to Joint Region Marianas and Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense official Facebook pages for any Condition of Readiness upgrades or other condition changes in the short term. This post will be updated sometime mid-morning Sunday.


8:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 5, Guam time: A tropical storm watch has been issued for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.


6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 5, Japan time: Tropical Depression 20W has formed east of Guam, and according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is forecast to pass north of the Marianas main islands and approach Japan next Thursday as a Category 5-equivalent typhoon.

At 3 p.m., TD 20W was 1,088 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and 2,274 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving due west at 17 mph. No Conditions of Readiness have been set; stay tuned to Joint Region Marianas and Office of Civil Defense/Department of Homeland Security for updates.

If TD 20W keeps on its present heading, it's forecast to keep moving west for a day or so, then west-northwest and reaching Category 1-equivalent intensity by Sunday evening and strengthen gradually, to Category 5-equivalent strength, 150-mph sustained winds, by mid-afternoon at the end of the current forecast.

JTWC projects TD 20W to pass 236 miles north-northeast of Andersen and 113 miles north-northeast of Saipan between 11 p.m. Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday, with destructive winds well out of reach of the main Marianas Islands. No advisories, watches or warnings are posted yet by the National Weather Service.

Yes, this cyclone could become a vicious monster. But where precisely will it go? While JTWC reports models are in unusually good agreement with just a 230-mile spread in the solutions envelope, It is way too early to say for sure.

In the long term, a week or more out, the spread becomes more vast.

Model track guidance depicts a spread stretching from Iwakuni to Tokyo. The GFS and CMC ensembles each show a curve northeast, GFS a curve just east of Kyushu and southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, and CMC more toward the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area.

Stay tuned. Much can change in the span of a few days or a week.


Noon Saturday, Oct. 5, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued for disturbance 93W Invest, now about 1,240 miles east of Guam and projected to head in a generally westward direction through the Northern Marianas Islands the next few days.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates 93W has the potential for rapid intensification. Initial forecast models agree on a strong cyclone, but disagree on forward speed, how strong it will end up being and also which way it might go.

GFS ensemble, the more agreessive of the lot, depicts a possible Category 4-equivalent cyclone, but with solutions spread from as far southwest as Taiwan to as far northeast as Tokyo.

CMC ensemble indicates a possible Category 2-equivalent cyclone and solutions spread even further, from northern Luzon to curving northeast and remaining over open water in the northwestern Pacific.

Bottom line: It could be bad one, it could head toward southwestern Japan which has taken several hits in the past couple of months.

Or it could head in any number of directions. It is way too early to draw conclusions.

Much more should be known once JTWC begins issuing warnings on the system, which would be the 20th numbered storm of the season. If it becomes a named system, it would be called Hagibis, Tagalog for swift or fast.


8 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4, Japan time: A new disturbance, labeled 93W Invest, is forming about 1,430 miles east of Guam, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Model track guidance shows a vast spread among solutions, with GEM depicting a track toward central Japan or even the Tokyo area, and GFS favoring a track toward Okinawa, with either solution about 10 days out.

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