Quantcast

Typhoon 09W (Prapiroon), #40 FINAL: All clear at Sasebo

Fleet Activities Sasebo has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Prepare to ride out Typhoon Prapiroon until the all-clear is sounded.

WWW.NOAA.GOV

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: July 2, 2018

9:50 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed all clear for Sasebo Naval Base and its satellite properties.

CFAS stated on its official Facebook page:

"Please continue to proceed with caution of debris and other hazards as you proceed about your night as there are still strong winds. Please be sure to report any damage you see to Public Works and Security. Be sure to continue to check our Facebook page for any further updates."

Unless drastic changes occur, this will be Pacific Storm Tracker's final report on Typhoon Prapiroon.


6:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has declared Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery).

Sustained destructive 58-mph winds are no longer occurring at Sasebo Naval Base and its properties. But that does NOT mean it's OK to venture outside.

Engineers and repair folk must now fan out to check for damage, flooding, smashed glass and steel, downed trees and power lines, overturned vehicles and the like. It might take a few minutes; it might take several hours.

So please, remain sheltered where you are until CFAS directs TCCOR All Clear.


6 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: The time of closest point of approach to Sasebo Naval Base by Typhoon Prapiroon has come and gone, 51 miles west-northwest of Sasebo at 3 p.m.

But the winds are such that Sasebo will remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E for some time. So, please stay inside and keep your safe on, even after TCCOR 1-R and Storm Watch have been directed. Wait until the all-clear is announced.

At 3 p.m., Prapiroon had diminished somewhat as it made its closest pass to Sasebo, but is still clinging to Category 1-equivalent status: 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts.

Prapiroon is moving north-northeast at 16 mph and is projected to plow through the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea), remaining over water until its remnants bull their way over Hokkaido at mid-afternoon Thursday.

Talk on social media indicated that Prapiroon was the worst tropical cyclone to pay a visit to Sasebo in some time.

Evacuation of elderly in Sasebo City was ordered at 8:30 a.m. As of 4 p.m., about 50,000 homes in Nagasaki Prefecture were without power, including about 1,300 homes in Sasebo City. Five people in Nagasaki suffered minor injuries.

Most ferry services were suspended in Nagasaki Prefecture and about 70 flights serving Nagasaki Airport were canceled. Four flights serving Kitakyushu Airport and 18 serving Fukuoka Airport were also canceled.

Japan Railways Kyushu's Kamome and Midori services serving Nagasaki and Saga were suspended. Sanyo and Kyushu Shinkansen services were operating as usual. Nishitetsu express buses serving Fukuoka and Sasebo were canceled throughout Tuesday.


1:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E. Sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring on Sasebo Naval Base. All outdoor activity is prohibited. Stay indoors until the all-clear is sounded.


Noon Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: The good news, if there is such a thing, for Sasebo Naval Base regarding Typhoon Prapiroon: Its track lurched slightly west along its path toward the Tsushima Strait, meaning Sasebo could be spared Prapiroon's full fury Tuesday afternoon.

At 9 a.m., Prapiroon was 112 miles southwest of Sasebo, rumbling almost due north at 16 mph, and had dminished slightly, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C; CFAS says upgrade to TCCOR 1-E might come Tuesday afternoon, depending on Prapiroon's track and intensity.

If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 51 miles northwest of Sasebo at 3 p.m., packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Sasebo now lies just inside JTWC's forecast 50-knot wind band and slightly outside the 64-knot wind band.

Weather forecast for CFAS calls for southerly sustained winds between 46 and and 52 mph with 70-mph gusts in the late afternoon, shifting to the southwest and gradually diminishing throughout the evening into Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, Prapiroon's shift in track put it slightly closer to U.S. bases in southeastern Korea. It's due to pass 39 miles southeast of Pusan and 63 miles southeasat of Chinhae Naval Base between 9 and 10 p.m. Tuesday. U.S. bases in Korea's Area IV remain in TCCOR 4.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, but should be well out of harm's way; Prapiroon is forecast to pass 144 miles northwest of Iwakuni at midnight Tuesday. Iwakuni is well shielded by mountains north. Iwakuni could get 28-mph sustained winds and 41-mph gusts Tuesday evening.


11:35 a.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). That means sustained winds between 40 and 57 mph are occurring on station. Time to cease outdoor activity, get indoors and prepare to ride out Typhoon Prapiroon until the all-clear is sounded.


6 a.m. Tuesday, July 3, Japan time: Typhoon Prapiroon has strengthened slightly and remains on track to pass just northwest of Sasebo Naval Base, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, making for a blustery, rainy Tuesday.

At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 190 miles south-southwest of Sasebo, moving north-northeast at 15 mph and had intensified to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. If it remains on its current course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 30 miles northwest of Sasebo at 3 p.m. Tuesday

Local forecast for Sasebo still calls for the heavy stuff to hit late Tuesday morning and early Tuesday afternoon, with gusts up to 70 mph.

Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Upgrades to TCCOR 1-C or 1-E could come any time, depending on Prapiroon’s forecast track, forward speed and intensity.

As a reminder:

  • When TCCOR 1-C is issued, time to quickly finish any business you might have outdoors, personnel will be released to quarters, time to get inside and be prepared to remain there until the coast is clear.
  • When TCCOR 1-E is declared, all outside activity is prohibited.
  • When TCCOR 1-R is issued, it’s still not safe to go outdoors. Engineers and repair folk will fan out to check for damage, flooding, downed trees and power lines, etc. Wait until the all-clear is sounded.

Midnight Monday, July 2, Japan time: A high-wind warning is in effect for Sasebo Naval Base from 3 a.m. Tuesday to 3 a.m. Wednesday, thanks to Typhoon Prapiroon, which continues bearing down on Fleet Activities Sasebo with a wild, rainy Tuesday in the cards.

At 11:35 p.m., Prapiroon was 247 miles southwest of Sasebo, churning north-northeast at 15 mph and had diminished slightly, down to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center. If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to rumble 25 miles northwest of Sasebo, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center.

Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) if winds reach 40-mph sustained, and TCCOR 1-E (emergency) if they reach 58-mph sustained. Once 1-C is declared, time to get indoors and hunker down. When 1-E is issued, all outdoor activity is prohibited.

And even when 1-R (recovery) goes into effect, that doesn’t mean you can leave the house and resume life as usual. That’s when damage assessors hit the bricks to check flooding, broken glass and steel, downed power lines, fragmented trees and tree limbs, etc. Wait until the all-clear is declared to venture outside, go back to work, etc.

Here’s the CFAS forecast for Tuesday, courtesy of the Navy Oceanographic and Atmospheric Command:

Tuesday early morning – Southeasterly, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.
Tuesday late morning – Southerly, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 70-mph gusts.
Tuesday afternoon and evening – Southwesterly, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts, diminishing to 12- to 18-mph sustained winds, 29-mph gusts.

It should also be a gusty, rainy Tuesday in southeastern Korea, but U.S. bases on the coast should be well out of harm’s way as Prapiroon passes 77 miles southeast of Pusan and 102 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base between 9 and 10 p.m. Tuesday.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni should also feel some effects, but Prapiroon should pass 103 miles northwest of Iwakuni at 1 a.m. Wednesday; that base is shielded by mountains the north.

 

10 p.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: Here’s the updated forecast for Fleet Activities Sasebo, courtesy of Navy Oceanographic and Atmospheric Command. CFAS remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect upgrades to that as Typhoon Prapiroon moves closer and depending on forecast track and wind speeds.

Monday evening – Southeasterly, 12- to 18-mph sustained winds, 29-mph gusts.
Tuesday early morning – Southeasterly, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts.

Tuesday late morning – Southerly, 40- to 46-mph sustained winds, 70-mph gusts.
Tuesday afternoon and evening – Southwesterly, 23- to 29-mph sustained winds, 40-mph gusts, diminishing to 12- to 18-mph sustained winds, 29-mph gusts.

Emergency shelters have been activated in town; that’s what those announcements in Japanese over the loudspeakers are about. The Fukuoka Airport Shuttle, aka the Blue Bus, is expected to run as scheduled on Tuesday, but it might be canceled if TCCOR 1-E is issued or if all or parts of the highway between Sasebo and Fukuoka are closed. Follow the CFAS official Facebook page.

6 p.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: Typhoon Prapiroon's forecast track has lurched a bit east, putting it on course to pass just northwest of Sasebo Naval Base and put U.S. bases in southeastern Korea even further out of danger, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 p.m., Prapiroon was 357 miles south-southwest of Sasebo, rumbling north-northeast at 10 mph and, according to JTWC, has peaked at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. Fleet Activities Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect an upgrade as soon as sustained winds exceed 40 mph.

If Prapiroon remains on its present path, it's forecsat to pass just 29 miles northwest of Sasebo at 4 p.m. Tuesday, packing 74-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts.

Sasebo appears right on the edge of Prapiroon's 64-knot wind band and well inside the 50-knot band, according to JTWC. Gonna be a wet, windy middle of the week for CFAS.

And that's better news for Pusan and Chinhae Naval Base along Korea's southeast coast. Praprioon is due to pass 74 miles southeast of Pusan and 97 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base between 9 and 10 p.m. Tuesday. Area IV bases in southeastern Korea remain in TCCOR 4.


4:30 p.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Non-essential services will be closed Tuesday and re-open after the all-clear is directed.

U.S. bases on Okinawa resumed seasonal TCCOR 4 at noon Monday. But it might not be for long. There’s a new system developing southeast of Guam which could affect Okinawa in the next 10 days, perhaps earlier.
 

11 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: With Okinawa now in its rear view mirror, looks like Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan is next for Typhoon Prapiroon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 a.m., Prapiroon was 74 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base, chugging north at 13 mph and had intensified to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts.

If it remains on its current track, Prapiroon is due to pass 40 miles northwest of Sasebo at high noon Tuesday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

Sasebo appears well within Prapiroon's 50-knot wind band. Fleet Activities Sasebo directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch at 8 a.m. Monday; expect that to be upgraded if the track remains the same.

Pusan and Chinhae Naval Base in southeastern Korea could be spared Prapiroon's full fury. It's forecast to pass 85 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base and 61 miles southeast of Pusan at 5 p.m. Tuesday.


9 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

Typhoon Prapiroon continues moving north and away from Okinawa, but that doesn't mean the island is completely out of the woods yet.

Rain bands and wind gusts remain on Prapiroon's back side. Depending on how strong the residuals are, it could even mean a possible return to TCCOR 1-C, as happened a few years ago on Okinawa.

Facilities on the bases should return to normal operations within a couple of hours. Still, remain vigilant and be prepared for whatever might happen until the return to seasonal TCCOR 4 is declared.


8 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). There is no set time for that status to remain in effect before moving into Storm Watch. That all rests with how much damage is found and how much repair is needed at each base on island.

As for off base, as of 7 a.m., the Okinawa Electronic Power Corporation reported 3,690 homes without electricity.

According to the Ryukyu Shimpo, at least 230 flights serving Naha International Aiirport have been canceled, affecting more than 36,000 passengers. Also, 111 ferries were canceled.

For those scheduled to fly out of Naha on Monday, check this guide to see your flight's status.

Even local public transportation was affected. Okinawa Public Bus ceased operations after 7 p.m. Sunday and are planning to resume at 8 a.m. The Okinawa monorail, serving the airport up to Shuri Castle, suspended operations at 6 p.m. Sunday and resumed regular operations Monday morning.

Two injuries were reported by the Okinawa Times: An 80-year-old man in Naha was knocked down by wind and injured, while a man in Nishihara doing typhoon prep on his property fell from a ladder and suffered a cut on his right leg.

Peak sustained winds on U.S. bases were 47 mph, measured at 3:10 a.m., and peak gusts were 72 mph, measured at 3:49 a.m., according to Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.


6:23 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery). Sustained winds of 58-mph have subsided and Typhoon Prapiroon is starting to move out of the area.

This is NOT the time to venture outdoors simply because the destructive winds are going away. Now is the time for engineers and repair folk to venture forth and survey damage. Downed power lines, trees and tree limbs, flooding, fragmented glass and steel, any number of things that can cause injury or even death.

And Prapiroon is still close enough that backside wind bands could force a return to TCCOR 1-C or perhaps even 1-E.

Please ... remain indoors until the all-clear or return to seasonal TCCOR 4 is declared.


6 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan/Korea time: Prapiroon has morphed into the first typhoon to directly affect Okinawa this year, and has slowed enough to keep U.S. bases on the island in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) for a good part of Monday.

At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 66 miles west of Kadena Air Base, trudging north at 9 mph and had intensified to 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Prapiroon was forecast to pass 62 miles west of Kadena at 5 a.m, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Wind and sideways rain should continue through most of the morning, gradually tapering off as Prapiroon slowly makes its way north away from Okinawa and toward the Tsushima Strait between Korea's southeast coast and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu.

One nice thing about all this rain: Reservoir levels are starting to rise again, as they did last month with those two tropical cyclones that weren't typhoons, but dumped a lot of rain on the island. Overall levels are up .4 percent overnight from Sunday.

Prapiroon should remain a typhoon briefly Monday, peaking at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Monday, picking up forward speed and maintaining 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it splits the difference between Pusan and Sasebo at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

If it remains on its current track, Prapiroon is due to pass 59 miles north-northwest of Sasebo and 44 miles southeast of Pusan and 67 miles southeast of Chinhae Naval Base between noon and 5 p.m. Tuesday.

Area IV bases in southeastern Korea remain in TCCOR 4. They should be just outside Prapiroon's 50-knot wind band, while Sasebo should be on its edges. Fleet Activities Sasebo has not upgraded TCCOR at this point; expect that to happen sometime Monday morning.


1:45 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency). Actual sustained 58-mph winds and greater are occurring. All outside activity is prohibited. STAY INDOORS and keep safe!


1 a.m. Monday, July 2, Japan time: Here is the lateset wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: Occurring.
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 1 a.m. Monday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 1 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: Noon Monday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C. TCCOR 1-E would be declared if weather officials observe sustained 58-mph winds, which had not happened before 1 a.m. It might happen; it might not. Tropical cyclones can be unpredictable buggers.


Midnight Sunday, July 1, Japan/Korea time: Well, it's happening, folks. The winds have picked up, along with some sideways rain, and Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues intensifying as it prepares to pass Okinawa early Monday.

At 9 p.m., Prapiroon was 74 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, tracking north-northwest at 13 mph and had strengthened to 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center. Closest point of approach is forecast to be 57 miles west of Kadena at 1 a.m. Monday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C, meaning winds between 40 and 57 mph are actually occurring on a particular base. Peak wind gust thus far on Okinawa was 61 mph at 10 p.m.

Prapiroon is forecast to peak as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon at mid-evening Monday, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center but well after it passes Okinawa.

Korea's southeastern bases, primarily Pusan and Chinhae Naval Base, and Japan's southwestern Sasebo Naval Base appear to be next on the itinerary. U.S. bases in Korea's Area IV remain in TCCOR 4 and Fleet Activities Sasebo could enter TCCOR Storm Watch or higher, depending on Prapiroon's track and intensity.

JTWC projects Prapiroon to pass 85 miles northwest of Sasebo, 15 miles southeast of Pusan and 37 miles southeast of Chinhae between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. Tuesday, still maintaining 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. All those areas appear to be well within Prapiroon's 50-knot wind band.

7:13 p.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution). Winds between 40 and 57 mph are actually occurring at a particular installation on Okinawa.

Now is the time to make your way indoors and prepare to stay there for awhile. TCCOR 1-E could be declared at any point once winds reach 58-mph sustained or greater.


7 p.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 9 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds dimnishing below 58-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Monday.

A reminder: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C is issued by Kadena's 18th Wing Commander when 40-mph sustained winds are occurring at a particular base, and TCCOR 1-E is issued when 58-mph sustained winds are occurring.


6 p.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan/Korea time: Guess we might as well toss any previous wind timelines. Tropical Storm Prapiroon has moved very slowly, its track has wobbled and it's still not certain when we might see Tropical Cyclone Conditon of Readiness 1-C or higher.

At 3 p.m., Prapiroon was 130 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, trudging north-northwest at 13 mph, holding steady at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its current Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track, Prapiroon is due to pass 56 miles west of Kadena at 2 a.m. Monday -- much later than previously forecast.

PST will post a wind timeline once one becomes available from the 18th Wing Weather Flight. For the moment, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 1.

Once more in the long term, Prapiroon's forecast track has bent a bit further northeast, putting a big ol' Bull's-Eye on Pusan. JTWC projects Prapiroon to strike Korea's southeast coast between 3 and 5 p.m. Tuesday, passing 27 miles east of Chinhae Naval Base and 53 miles southeast of Daegu. Area IV bases remain in TCCOR 4.


1 p.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: The latest from the Kadena Air Base weather page indicates that U.S. bases on Okinawa could get 40-mph sustained winds starting about 1 p.m., with 58-mph sustained winds following around 6 p.m.

A reminder that U.S. bases on Okinawa enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C once 40-mph sustained winds are happening on one base or another; TCCOR 1-E is issued when 58-mph sustained winds are occurring. Time to finish storm preparation, if you haven't done so already.


Noon Sunday, July 1, Japan/Korea time: So, where's the storm? many are asking on social  media.

Despite U.S. bases on Okinawa entering Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 at 3:02 a.m. Sunday, it seems as if nothing terrible is happening, at least from the look of the weather.

Yes, it's a bit more windy than usual, but the sun is out, there's been an occasional spot shower, the commissary and Exchanges are open; even Chili's on Kadena is open for lunch.

Relax, gang. The heavy stuff associated with the storm is definitely on the way.

Most of the real nastiness is south of Tropical Storm Prapiroon/'s center. Lots of wind and especially rain. And it's only a couple of hours away. Patience. And be ready to quckly move inside once TCCOR 1-C is issued, whenever that may be.

At 9 a.m., Prapiroon was 202 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving northwest at 12 mph and has intensified slightly, to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 80 miles west of Kadena at 11 p.m. Sunday, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. PST will post an updated wind-forecast timeline when it becomes available.

Prapiroon remains forecast to peak after it passes Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts sometime mid-morning Monday as it approaches Korea's southeast coast.

And Prapiroon's forecast track continues to bend northeast, to the point where Sasebo Naval Base might even be casting a nervous eye toward it.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Prapiroon to maintain 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, just below Category 1-equivalent strength, as it bisects Pusan (17 miles west) and Chinhae Naval Base (13 miles east) at high noon Monday. U.S. bases in Korea's Area IV remain in TCCOR 4, according to 19th Expeditionary Sustainment Command's official Facebook page.

Sasebo might be spared full fury; Prapiroon is due to pass 114 miles northwest at at 7 a.m. Monday. There's every chance Fleet Activities Sasebo might set TCCOR Storm Watch as a precaution; keep an eye on its official Facebook page.


5 a.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan/Korea time: Now, it's moving. Tropical Storm Prapiroon has finally begun picking up forward speed, moving north-northwest at a good pace and remaining on track to pass just west of Okinawa later Sunday.

More and more, it's looking like U.S. bases on the west coast of Korea may be spared Prapiroon's full fury, while bases on the southeastern part of the Peninsula might be in the crosshairs.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Depending on track and forward speed, expect an upgrade to TCCOR 1-C by mid-morning and 1-E by mid afternoon. U.S. bases in Korea's Area IV remain in TCCOR 4.

At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 248 miles south of Kadena Air Base, chugging north-northwest at 12 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

If it remains on course, Prapiroon is due to pass 71 miles west of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday at just below typhoon strength, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center.

Sunday's and Monday's forecast for Kadena, courtesy of the 18th Wing Weather Flight, calls for rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms, with easterly winds between 40 and 55 mph Sunday morning, shifting to the southeast between 57 and 70 mph Sunday evening and decreasing to 40 to 50 mph Monday morning.

As for Korea, landfall looks probable early to mid morning Tuesday, with Prapiroon still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.

Prapiroon is forecast to pass 10 miles west of Chinhae Naval Base, 35 miles west of Pusan on the southeast coast and 17 miles southeast of the Area IV bases in Daegu between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. Tuesday. Closest it's forecast to pass a west-coast base is 116 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base, so they should be out of harm's way.

Forecast models agree on a track just west of Okinawa. But from there? Model tracks range from over southeastern Korea to a more northeasterly curve into the Sea of Japan or East Sea. Stay tuned.


3 a.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Prapiroon is gradually picking up speed, headed northwest. Its forecast track continues taking it just west of Okinawa, leaving the burning question: Will the island see 58-mph destructive winds or will it not?

At 9 p.m., Prapiroon was 315 miles south of Kadena Air Base, trudging north at 8 mph and holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon will pass 77 miles west of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, sporting 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at storm’s center.

But almost like a magnet, Prapiroon’s more nasty quadrants, northeast and southeast, will pass closer to Kadena than the west ones. Almost invariably, the eastern quadrants are meaner, pulling humidity, heat and stronger storm rings than the western ones.

As Prapiroon approaches Okinawa, its radius of 58-mph winds are forecast to extend 81 miles away from center and the 40-mph radius 184 miles from center in the northeast quadrant. The 58-mph radius, of course, features the more destructive winds, and Kadena sits right at the edge of that 58-mph wind loop, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

In short, Kadena can very easily expect destructive winds Sunday afternoon and evening that might warrant upgrading to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E. Lockdown mode. Everyone stay indoors until the danger has passed.

Then again, perhaps not. All of that could change. Forecast models agree on a track taking Prapiroon west of Okinawa, but are scattered all over the lot from late Monday on.

The good news is that Prapiroon might not intensify into a typhoon until well after it passes Okinawa.


7 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. It does appear as if Okinawa will experience sustained destructive 58-mph winds Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Sunday.
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Sunday.
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts for Kadena, 69-mph gusts elsewhere: 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Monday.


6 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding Pacific tropical cyclones, is Tropical Storm Prapiroon might wait to become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon than previously forecast.

But that doesn't mean Okinawa is out of the woods. Will the island get destructive 58-mph sustained winds? Or won't it?

That appears to be the $64,000 question. The southwest edges of Okinawa appear to be barely inside Prapiroon's 50-knot forecast wind loop, according to the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

And Prapiroon is moving so slowly ... ever so slowly ... that forecast passage of Okinawa might not come until Sunday evening now. Stated another way, the only thing certain is ... uncertainty.

Same goes for Korea. It's fairly certain that Prapiroon will make landfall over the Peninsula's southern edges; the only question being, where will it go from there?

Earlier, Osan and Kunsan Air Bases appeared to be in the crosshairs; now, the forecast track seems to take Prapiroon much closer to Korea's southeastern Area IV bases, Camps Walker, George and Henry and K-2 Air Bsae in Daegu, Chinhae Naval Base and the tinier installations in Busan, along Korea's southeastern coast.

Here's what we do know at this point, knowing it all can change as we move along:

At 5:30 p.m., Prapiroon was 374 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.

If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 71 miles west-southwst of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, packing 63- to 69-mph sustained winds and 81- to 86-mph gusts at storm's center.

Prapiroon is due to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon about 18 hours after passing Kadena, peaking at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. Please check previous posts for the wind-forecast timeline; keep in mind, that could change also.

It should maintain that intensity as it slams into Korea's southern coast about mid-morning Tuesday.

JTWC projects Prapiroon to rapidly decay as it moves over the southern mountains, then pass 85 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base at 10 a.m. Monday, perhaps sparing it the storm's full fury.

But it should come within 20 miles of Daegu, 40 miles northeast of Chinhae and 69 miles northwest of Busan two hours later. Area IV bases remain in TCCOR 4.

But the forecast track has wobbled quite a bit the past couple of days. Forecast models remain spread somewhat. PST will keep an eye on it.


3:40 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: With elevated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness possible in the coming hours and days, here's a guide to remind those who've been around awhile and tailor made for newcomers. What those TCCORs mean and what to do when they're issued.


2:30 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U.S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday
-- Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 1 p.m. Sunday
-- Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 8 p.m. Sunday
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Expect an upgrade early Sunday morning. Sustained 40-mph winds or greater meet the critiera for TCCOR 1-C to be declared; 58-mph sustained winds or greater, TCCOR 1-E.


Noon Saturday, June 30, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.

Destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Time for cleaning up around the office and yard and getting that last-minute shopping done.

Be prepared to stay indoors when TCCOR 1-C and 1-E are issued Sunday.


8:15 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. It's likely U.S. bases will enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) by Sunday afternoon. Here's what to expect:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: Noon Sunday
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts at Kadena, 69-mph sustained winds elsewhere: Noon Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 7 p.m. Sunday
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.

Kadena’s weather flight forecast calls for between 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday, perhaps beyond.


7 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues moving very slowly northwest. Its forecast track has veered slightly closer to Okinawa – now projected to be 67 miles west at 4 p.m. Sunday, a bit later than previously reported, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Prapiroon should reach Category 1-equivalent strength as it reaches Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center as it roars past, and maintain severe tropical storm strength as it picks up forward speed, north over Jeju Island, then making landfall over the southwest coast of Korea late Monday evening.

At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 451 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling north-northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Prapiroon to speed up as Saturday progresses, rumbling past Okinawa Sunday afternoon and peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts early Monday morning after it exits Okinawa.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect that to be upgraded by mid-day or afternoon Saturday to TCCOR 2, depending on Prapiroon’s track and movement, and possibly TCCOR 1 early Sunday morning. U.S. bases in Korea’s Area IV remain in TCCOR 4; expect upgrade to TCCOR 3, along with TCCORs being set for bases along the west coast.

Rain and gusty winds remain forecast for the entire weekend into Monday on Okinawa. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms, with easterly winds up to 40 mph and gusts up to 51 Sunday morning, then southeasterly winds up to 39 mph with gusts between 66 and 79 mph Sunday after, gradually decreasing Monday.

Prapiroon is forecast to move through Korea later than previously forecast, 30 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and Osan Air Base, 80 miles west of Daegu, 28 miles east of Camp Humphreys and 40 miles east of Yongsan Garrison between midnight Monday and 7 a.m. Tuesday.

Much of this could change, depending on Prapiroon’s forward speed and track. Forecast models are in general agreement on Prapiroon moving northwest, but how quickly is still open to question.


12:30 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: Again, Tropical Storm Prapiroon's forecast track has edged further west of Okinawa, which could avoid the storm's inner nastiness, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track holds.

But the weekend should continue to be a gusty, rainy, all-around nasty one, according to local military and Japanese forecasts. And Korea's southwest coach remains right in Prapiroon's crosshairs for a Monday afternoon arrival. Some holiday weekend!

At midnight, Prapiroon was 463 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base and has started to turn northwest, moving at 6 mph and has intensified to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

If Prapiroon remains on its current course, it's due to pass 84 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 1 p.m. Sunday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Equal to a Category 1 hurricane. But far enough from Kadena that it might not feel its full fury.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; that could change, either accelerating to TCCOR 2 or reverting to TCCOR Storm Watch, depending on Prapiroon's future movements.

Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast still calls for 30-mph sustained winds with gusts up to 70 mph along with rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Japanese forecasts call for similar conditions lasting into Tuesday.

As Prapiroon moves northwest of Okinawa, it's forecast to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts and start to move rapidly toward Korea's southwest coast. Landfall is expected around 9 p.m. Monday as a severe tropical storm, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center as it slams ashore.

Prapiroon is forecast to pass 15 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 17 miles east of Osan Air Base and 26 miles east of Yongsan Garrison in Seoul between 11 p.m. Monday and 4 a.m. Tuesday, then rapidly cruise northeast into the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, by Tuesday afternoon.

U.S. bases in Korea's southern Area IV remain in TCCOR 4. Expect an upgrade by Saturday evening to TCCOR 3 and Kunsan, Osan, Yongsan and Camp Humphreys to join them.

Prapiroon is also inside the northeastern edges of the Philippines area of responsibility, and is being called Florita by the national weather authority PAGASA, but it's forecast to remain a good 450 miles offshore and not be a threat to land. No tropical storm warning signal has been issued, nor is one expected to be.


6 p.m. Friday, June 29, Japan/Korea time: Slightly better news for U.S. bases on Okinawa: Tropical Storm Prapiroon's forecast track has edged still further west of Okinawa, which could give the island something more of a break from the storm's fiercest fury.

The bad news for Korea: U.S. bases on the west coach of the Peninsula could take a pounding Monday afternoon and evening after Prapiroon makes its forecast landfall about 3 p.m. Monday over Mokpo. And it might still be a Category 1-equivalent typhoon when it does.

At 3 p.m., Prapiroon was 490 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling due west at 4 mph and had intensified to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon should pass 70 miles west of Kadena at noon Sunday, just before peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

Prapiroon is next forecast to slam ashore over southwest Korea, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts as it makes landfall. It's due to pass 7 miles west of Kunsan, 14 miles east of Yongsan, 6 miles west of Humphreys and make a direct hit on Osan between 9 p.m. Monday and 2 a.m. Tuesday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while U.S. bases in Korea's Area IV remain in TCCOR 4. Expect Osan and Kunsan Air Bases, Yongsan Garrison and Camp Humphreys along Korea's west coast to follow suit, and soon.


5 p.m. Friday, June 29, Korea time: U.S. Forces Korea bases in southeastern Area IV have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 from 5 p.m. through Monday. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

Area IV includes Chinhae Naval Base and other installations in southeastern coastal Busan, Korea's second-largest city, and Camps Walker, George and Henry and K-2 Air Base in southeastern Daegu, the nation's third-largest city.

According to 19th Expeditionary Sustainment Command's official Facebook page, 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast along with winds reaching 50 knots (58 mph) or greater within the next three days.


12:30 p.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: Prapiroon has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s now forecast to peak at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center just before passing Okinawa, 59 miles west of Kadena Air Base, at noon Sunday, a bit further west than previously forecast. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

Latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday.
  • Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts: Noon Sunday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Sunday.

Prapiroon also remains on track to hit Korea’s southwest coast as a severe tropical storm, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it slams ashore near Mokpo and passes 98 miles northwest of Chinhae Naval Base and 27 miles southeast of Kunsan Air Base between 6 and 7 p.m. Monday.


10 a.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Condition 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. Expect upgrade to TCCOR 2 within 24 hours, perhaps sooner. A wind forecast timeline will be provided once available.

Okinawa might not reach TCCOR 1-E, since peak forecast winds are not expected to reach emergency levels.

Here is the wind-forecast timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday
  • Peak 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts: 10 a.m. Sunday
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Sunday

The above information could change, since Tropical Depression 09W is very young and can intensify quickly, becoming even stronger than currently forecasted. It would be wise to prepare for the worst and have a safety plan in place.


6:30 a.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: Time to start preparing, folks. Sunday might find Okinawa with rainy, gusty visitor in the form of a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, if current forecasts, models and tracks remain true to current form.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to be upgraded some time Friday morning to TCCOR 3.

At 3 a.m., Tropical Depression 09W was 508 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, creeping southwest at 9 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. The bad news is, 09W remains in an area of very warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Both help nourish a developing storm in the way a mom nurses a newborn.

If 09W remains on its current forecast track, it’s due to pass 36 miles west of Kadena at 10 a.m. Sunday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts – well within TCCOR 1-E (emergency) parameters. We’ll post a forecast wind timeline when one becomes available.

Current local forecast http://www.kadena.af.mil/Agencies/Local-Weather/ calls for winds to start picking up Friday evening into Saturday, easterly sustained 20-mph winds with gusts up to 32 mph. Rain and scattered thunderstorms, a 60-percent chance, come next, starting Saturday evening, with winds increasing to 30-mph sustained and gusts up to 70 mph throughout the day Sunday.

Korea faces similar danger according to JTWC’s current outlook. 09W is forecast to maintain 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts even after moving out of the subtropics, over Jeju Island toward Korea’s southwest coast, then knifing its way between U.S. bases in Korea’s west and southeast reaches between 2 and 7 p.m. Monday.

Time to make that trip to the commissary and exchange to get those non-perishable foods and bottled water, a portable radio, flashlight and spare batteries, diapers and wipes for the young’uns and nourishment for your furry friends. Gas up and visit the ATM sometime Saturday to ensure you have enough gasoline in the car and cash on hand in case we lose power for an extended period. Get your safe on!


Midnight Thursday, June 28, Japan time: The ninth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season has spawned nearly 500 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s initial warning shows Tropical Depression 09W tracking toward a near-direct hit on Kadena early Sunday morning, with a trip to Korea’s southern coast to follow.

And that’s not all, folks; 09W is forecast to peak as a tropical storm at mid-evening Saturday, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it passes 10 miles west of Kadena at 1 a.m. Sunday. That, sad to say, meets the criteria for Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency), but it’s too early to say definitively. It is quite early in the life of a new storm.

JTWC projects 09W to maintain 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it tracks toward Korea’s southern coast, making landfall about mid-morning Monday. It’s due to pass about 30 miles west of Chinhae Naval Base, 6 miles east of Daegu and 55 miles northwest of Busan between 1 and 4 p.m. Monday, making quite a fuss as it buzz-saws its way through Korea’s mountainous terrain.

A wind-forecast timeline and possible upgraded TCCOR times will be posted when available. For the moment, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4; expect that to be upgraded sometime Friday morning.


5:45 p.m. Thursday, June 28, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on 90W Invest, the disturbance southeast of Okinawa that may be headed to the island and provide it a wet, windy pre-holiday weekend.

At 5:30 p.m., 90W was 500 miles southeast of Okinawa, is moving north-northwest at 9 mph and had moved northwest by some 75 miles in the past six hours. JTWC reports and model guidance agrees that 90W should become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. Models show 90W tracking just west of Okinawa by Sunday.

Local forecasts concur, with both Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight and Japanese weather outlets calling for rain and gusty winds, up to 57 mph, over the weekend, starting late Saturday and lasting through Sunday.


11:45 a.m. Thursday, June 28, Japan time: A tropical disturbance is forming southeast of Okinawa and could make for a messy pre-July 4th weekend, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8:30 a.m., the disturbance — designated 90W Invest — was 575 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, JTWC reported.

Forecast models show a possible development into a tropical cyclone, with the storm headed in Okinawa’s general direction by the weekend.

The long-range forecast, according to Kadena officials, calls for winds and rain picking up Saturday. Throughout the weekend, expect southeasterly winds up to 30 mph and gusts up to 57 mph, with a 50-to-60-percent chance of rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Stay tuned for future updates.
 

from around the web