Tropical Storm 07W, #6: Okinawa bases resume TCCOR 4
By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: June 12, 2018
8 p.m. Thursday, June 14, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have resumed seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to a message received from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight.
"Tropical Storm 07W has moved to the northeast and is no longer expected to affect Okinawa," 18th Wing Weather Flight commanding officer Capt. Richelle B. Greer said in the statement.
Peak winds associated with 07W were 33-mph sustained and 50-mph gusts at 5 p.m., and 2 1/4 inches of rain associated with the storm fell at Kadena, the weather flight said in the statement.
6 p.m. Thursday, June 14, Japan time: Closest-point-of-approach time for Tropical Storm 07W to Okinawa has come and gone. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest track indicated CPA was to be 60 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base at 6 p.m., holding steady at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts. It's moving east-northeast at 23 mph and is entering what's called extratropical transition.
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch for the moment. 07W is not forecast to intensify any further and should remain well offshore of Japan's main islands, 277 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at 3 a.m. Friday and 282 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni seven hours later.
Noon Thursday, June 14, Japan time: Well, that didn't take long. 07W has been very quickly upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and remains on course to brush just past Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, to the northwest on Thursday evening.
At 9 a.m., 07W was 230 miles west-southwest of Kadena, headed north-northeast at 22 mph with 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center. If it remains on its present path, it's due to pass 61 miles northwest of Kadena at 5 p.m.
Bearing in mind that it's still early in the life of a young storm, JTWC's forecast track shows 07W passing well southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, 269 miles at 4 a.m. Friday, and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, 270 miles southeast at 9 a.m. Friday.
10 a.m. Thursday, June 14, Japan time: Following is the wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 40-mph sustained winds: From 3 p.m. Thursday.
-- Peak 46-mph sustained winds, 58-mph gusts: 6 p.m. Thursday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: From 9 p.m. Thursday.
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.
8 a.m. Thursday, June 14, Japan time: Good news on this happy Flag Day. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer expected on Okinawa with Tropical Depression 07W. Thus, U.S. bases on island have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.
That doesn’t mean Okinawa is out of the woods weather-wise. Heavy rain and winds gusting up to 52 mph are in the cards for Thursday into the weekend, perhaps into next week. It is still rainy season on Okinawa.
And there’s every chance, however small, that 07W could intensify. Keep an eye out. PST will as well.
6 a.m. Thursday, June 14, Japan time: What was 93W Invest, a tropical disturbance that spawned near Taiwan the last couple of days, has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 07W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 3 a.m., 07W was 343 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving north-northeast at 13 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. It’s due to pass 59 miles northwest of Kadena by early Thursday evening as a minimal tropical storm, packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.
U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Forecast for Thursday, courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight, calls for rainshowers and thunderstorms, with easterly winds up to 23 mph with gusts up to 34 mph in the morning, increasing to 40-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 57 mph in the afternoon and evening.
9 p.m. Wednesday, June 13, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.
According to Kadena Air Base's official weather Web page, conditions which would call for issuing of TCCOR 1-C would occur at noon Thursday, followed by TCCOR 1-E at 3 p.m. That's when destructive winds of 58 mph or greater would be actually occuring.
3 p.m. Wednesday, June 13, Japan time: Although U.S. bases entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 10 a.m., there is still no official wind forecast timeline published by 18th Wing Weather Flight at Kadena Air Base. This, despite the presence of unofficial forecast timelines appearing in social media quarters.
Why? Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has yet to issue an official warning on the disturbance, labeled 93W Invest, developing southwest of Okinawa; therefore, 18th Wing Weather Flight has no official guidance to use to put together a wind-forecast timeline for its clients. Forecast models do show a track over or near Okinawa.
According to Kadena's official weather Web page, the disturbance could meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C at 6 p.m. Thursday and TCCOR 1-E a few hours later.
Long-range forecast calls for easterly to southerly winds between 13 and 20 mph sustained and gusts as high as 38 mph Thursday morning, with gusts increasing to 52 mph Friday evening and 75 mph Saturday morning.
All of that could change, and it's a pretty good bet it will change when JTWC issues its first warning on the system.
11 a.m. Wednesday, June 13, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on a disturbance near Taiwan. It's forecast to head rapidly through the area, either as a subtropical depression or an extra-tropical low, not a full-blown typhoon. Details as we get 'em.