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Tropical Depression 33W, #12 FINAL

33W picks up speed, exits Palawan; all warning signals lowered.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: November 17, 2018

11:30 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 21, Philippines time: All tropical cyclone warning signals have been dropped for Palawan. Tropical Depression 33W has picked up forward speed and is moving away from Palawan. The national weather authority PAGASA says 33W is forecast to exit the Philippines area of responsibility Thursday evening. This concludes PST's coverage of 33W.

7:30 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 21, Philippines time: Happy  (U.S.) Thanksgiving from Pacific Storm Tracker to one and all.

All tropical cyclone warning signals have been dropped except for Palawan island, where Tropical Depression 33W is passing by at this writing.

33W should remain a tropical depression until exiting the Philippines area of responsibility, sometime tonight or early Friday, then intensify as it moves over the South China Sea toward Vietnam, peaking at 69-mph sustained winds just before landfall Sunday morning.


9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 21, Philippines time: Like street lamps extinguishing as dawn breaks into sunrise, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 continues being lowered for significant portions of Luzon and Visayas.

Tropical Depression 33W continues moving rapidly west, and is due to pass through Palawan island overnight Wednesday into Thursday and head into the South China Sea. Tropical storm-force winds are not forecast until after it's past Palawan.


11:30 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 21, Philippines time: Tropical Depression 33W has picked up forward speed and is moving quickly across Visayas in central Philippines toward the South China Sea. It's definitely more a rain event than a wind event, currently holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts, with plenty of rainfall causing flooding and landslides.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 has been canceled for Samar provinces, according to the national weather authority PAGASA. 33W, named Samuel by PAGASA, could exit the Philippines area of responsibility by Friday morning or earlier.

33W remains forecast to pass 205 miles south-southwest of Manila and 130 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa between 4 p.m. Wednesday and 3 a.m. Thursday, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It's due to peak at 69-mph sustained winds, just below typhoon strength, at mid-afternoon Saturday before making landfall over Vietnam.

6:45 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 21, Philippines time: Tropical Depression 33W made landfall early Wednesday morning over eastern Samar and is slowly making its way across Visayas.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 has been canceled for Mindanao, according to the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA. It remains in effect for Visayas and parts of Luzon.

At 2 a.m., 33W, named Samuel by PAGASA, was 371 miles east-southeast of Manila and slowly headed west-northwest at 10 mph, holding steady at 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If 33W remains on its present course, it's forecast, to pass 210 miles south-southwest of Manila at 3 a.m. Thursday, then some 150 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa seven  hours later.

33W is forecast to intensify as it makes its way toward Vietnam over the South China Sea, reaching Category 1-equivalent strength early Saturday morning.

10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 20, Philippines time: Tropical Depression 33W has picked up forward speed, but has diminished slightly as it continues its approach toward Visayas in central Philippines, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 p.m., 33W was 438 miles southeast of Manila, moving west-northwest at 13 mph, but had weakened to 29-mph sustained winds and 40-mph gusts.

If it continues on its present course, 33W is forecast to pass 248 miles south-southwest of Manila at 8 p.m. Wednesday, then 101 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island nine hours later, still as a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 remains raised for portions of Mindanao and Luzon and for virtually all of Visayas, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 20, Philippines time: Tropical Depression 33W has slowed at bit in its track toward the Visayas region of the Philippines, and should now pass through there a few hours later than previously reported.

At 4:45 p.m., 33W was 506 miles east-southeast of Manila and had almost ground to a halt, crawling west-northwest at 5 mph, still holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Philippines national weather authority PAGASA project 33W to pick up forward speed straight west in the coming hours.

If 33W remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass 262 miles south-southwest of Manila at 5 p.m. Wednesday, three hours later than previously forecast, then 85 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island 10 hours later, by then likely a tropical storm, 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

Model guidance has begun to diverge, with GFS and GEM projecting a track into Vietnam and NAVGEM a turn north before making landfall. GFS forecast ensemble depicts a straight run into Vietnam, while CMC forecast ensemble favors the northward turn. Stay tuned.

5:15 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 20, Philippines time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts 33W to remain a tropical depression as it passes through Visayas over the next day or so, becoming a tropical storm as it nears western Palawan Island.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 remains raised for portions of Mindanao, Visayas and Luzon, according to the Philippines’ national weather authority PAGASA.

At 5 a.m., 33W was 625 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed west-northwest at 13 mph and holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. If it remains on present course, 33W is forecast to 270 miles south-southwest of Manila at 2 p.m. Wednesday, then 80 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on Palawan eight hours later, perhaps as a tropical storm.

33W remains forecast to peak at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts early Saturday morning as it approaches the Vietnam coast.

5:30 p.m. Monday, Nov. 19, Philippines time: Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 has been extended to Masbate Island in southern Luzon as Tropical Depression 33W continues moving west toward the Philippines, according to the national weather authority PAGASA.

At 2 p.m., 33W, named Samuel by PAGASA, was 781 miles east-southeast of Manila and had turned west-northwest and was speeding up, to 16 mph, but holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 33W keeps on its present course, it's forecast to pass 266 miles south-southwest of Manila at high noon Wednesday, then 84 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on western Palawan Island about eight hours later.

33W is forecast to peak at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at 2 p.m. Friday, just before reaching landfall and passing 140 miles northeast of Ho Chi Minh City (the former Saigon) at about 2 p.m. Saturday.

Model guidance continues to show a straight run west into Vietnam, though forecast ensemble best tracks diverge somewhat. GFS ensemble depicts a weak storm moving rather rapidly toward Vietnam, while the CMC ensemble favors a northeast curve before reaching Vietnam. PST will keep watch.

11:30 a.m. Monday, Nov. 19, Philippines time: Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 has been extended to parts of southern Visayas as well as more portions of Mindanao, according to the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA.

Tropical Depression 33W, named Samuel by PAGASA, was 896 miles east-southeast of Manila at 8 a.m., moving northwest at at 14 mph, holding steady at 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 33W remains on its present course, it's forecast to pass about 250 miles south-southwest of Manila at 6 p.m. Wednesday, and 114 miles northeast of Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island about five hours later, packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts.

33W is then forecast to peak at just below Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts, as it approaches Vietnam at mid-morning Friday.

7 a.m. Monday, Nov. 19, Philippines time: Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 has been raised for portions of eastern Mindanao, according to the national weather authority PAGASA, as Tropical Depression 33W keeps moving northwest toward the Philippines.

At 2 a.m., 33W was 967 miles east-southeast of Manila, headed northwest at 8 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

If 33W keeps on its present course, it's forecast to slice through southern Visayas, central Philippines, passing 265 miles south-southwest of Manila around 6 p.m. Wednesday, then 88 miles north-northeast of Puerto Princesa on western Palawan Island seven hours later, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

5:40 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 18, Philippines time: The developing tropical cyclone east of the Philippines has been designated Tropical Depression 33W.

It's forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Japan Meteorological Agency and the Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA to track through the central Philippines by mid-week.

At 5:15 p.m., 33W was 1,052 miles east-southeast of Manila and 589 miles east of Davao in southeastern Mindanao, moving west at 17 mph.

If 33W keeps on its present course, it's forecast to clip the northeastern edges of Mindanao and southern Visayas, making landfall early Tuesday evening between Bayabas and San Agustin on the northeast coast of Mindanao, packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts as it roars ashore.

Metro Manila and former U.S. facilities in Luzon should be well out of harm's way. JTWC forecasts 33W to pass 340 miles south of Manila early Wednesday evening, then pass just north of Puerto Princesa on Palawan Island early Thursday.

Model guidance and best tracks among forecast ensembles are in good agreement. PST will keep an eye on it.


3 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 18, Philippines time: 98C Invest, which showed up as a tropical disturbance in the central Pacific nearly two weeks ago, has entered the Philippines area of responsibility and has been named Samuel by the national weather authority PAGASA.

If Samuel remains on its current path, it's forecast by PAGASA to make landfall sometime by midweek. No tropical cyclone warning signals have been raised yet; that could occur sometime Sunday evening or Monday.

Model guidance continues to show a straight track through the central Philippines, with most model solutions indicating a tropical depression or middling tropical storm, though the sole outlier, GFS ensemble's best track shows possible strengthening, 964 millibars, just before reaching the coast of Vietnam.

Japan Meteorological Agency has also designated the disturbance a tropical depression and would name it Man-yi, once it reaches tropical-storm strength.


6:45 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 18, Philippines time: After a couple of weeks of relative calm, tropicval traffic is picking up as Thanksgiving nears.

One tropical depression, Toraji, is coming ashore in Vietnam. Meanwhile, one disturbance, 98C Invest, is the subject of a tropical cyclone formation alert east of the Philippines and another, 92W Invest, is developing southeast of Guam.

Of the three, 92W appears to be the lone one that could threaten U.S. military assets. The GFS forecast ensemble indicates possible passage southwest of Guam five days out, followed by a northeast curve and passage south of Iwo Jima.

Meanwhile, model guidance and best tracks for 98C indicate passage through the central Philippines. GFS ensemble shows intensification as it nears Vietnam, while the CMC ensemble favors a curve back toward Luzon in the latter stages. PST will keep watch.

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin

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