Isolated Kim relies on old North Korea tensions playbook
By SAM KIM AND DAVID TWEED | Bloomberg News | Published: August 25, 2015
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's military standoff against South Korea, with his threats to annihilate the government in Seoul, was not just about the loudspeakers blasting propaganda and K-pop tunes over the demilitarized zone.
Rather, the events that took tensions on the peninsula to their highest level since the aftermath of North Korea's nuclear test in early 2013 reflected Kim's efforts to control how ties between countries in North Asia are evolving.
The young dictator, who came to power in late 2011, is looking isolated. Kim's nuclear ambitions and his unwillingness to take guidance from Beijing have irritated China and strained ties with Pyongyang's traditional ally. South Korean President Park Geun-hye enjoys a rapport with President Xi Jinping and is inching toward improved ties with Japan.
Faced with a dilapidated economy and drought at home, and potentially pressured by senior officers in his military to show some mettle, Kim resorted to an old North Korean playbook -- pick a fight to force concessions from South Korea on trade and aid. It's also a warning to Park against taking North Korea lightly in her dealings with China, Japan and the United States, all of whom have urged Kim to abandon his nuclear weapons program.
"This is more than a loudspeaker issue," said Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. "In the end this could be Kim's outreach strategy. Maybe they think the South hasn't been responding enough, so provoked a crisis to get to this stage."
The stakes are high for Kim. He has a series of upcoming anniversaries where he must prove he's worthy of commanding North Korea's 1.2 million troops. Economic woes facing his 24 million people are unlikely to ease soon, while North Korea's increasingly porous border with China means ordinary people have greater access to electronics and news of life outside the reclusive country.
In the end, both leaders gave some ground after days of high-level talks among negotiators at a border village -- and both can probably claim a victory. The regime in Pyongyang agreed to lift its "semi-state of war" and expressed regret over landmine blasts that maimed two South Korean soldiers, while Seoul said it'd stop the propaganda broadcasts.
Risks remain, and Kim faces the challenge of a more strident Park in the face of any further provocations.
"The question is will the dialog stick? That will be harder because there is going to be some kind of crisis that tests this in relative short order," said John Delury, a political science professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, citing the potential for skirmishes on the maritime border or over the demarcation line.
Since Park's government said last week it traded fire with North Korea across the demilitarized zone, her approval rating has risen. Even as the tensions roiled South Korea's financial markets she said Monday she would not stop pressuring Kim.
"The broadcasts play to particular parts of her support base, particularly the Christian right and the nationalist right," said Tessa Morris-Suzuki, a professor of Asian affairs at the Australian National University in Canberra, of the South Korean leader who passes the half-way mark of her five-year tenure on Tuesday.
On the same day Kim marks the day of "Songun," a military-first philosophy chartered by his late father Kim Jong Il. In less than two months he'll celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party as he seeks to promote himself as a shrewd politician and tough military tactician.
"This is a very important commemorative year for Kim Jong Un," Lee Sung-yoon, a professor of Korean studies at Tufts University, said by email. "The young Kim has a compelling need to mark it with a bang, as he did in 2012 on the 100th anniversary of his grandfather's birthday, when North Korea was miraculously to become a powerful and prosperous country."
Kim can't afford to look weak. Since taking power he's conducted a series of purges to root out potential threats.
"His spate of high-level executions shows a high degree of frustration that his policies are not being implemented to his satisfaction," Patrick Cronin, senior adviser for the Asia- Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said in an email.
The country is suffering chronic food shortages. North Korea said earlier this year it had been in the worst drought in a hundred years and the United Nations said in June that was worsening food-security concerns in the country.
"They're facing a poor harvest, so this could be a way to divert people's attention to patriotism and jingoism that wouldn't be necessary had there been plentiful crops," said Leonid Petrov, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University in Canberra. "Kim knows he cannot offer much to his population other than superficial window dressing. He has to use the same methods his father and grandfather did."