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As Trump tweets, China considers options to retaliate

By TING SHI, NICK WADHAMS AND DAVID TWEED | Bloomberg News (Tribune News Service) | Published: December 18, 2016

HONG KONG — China’s leaders are biting their tongues as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump uses Twitter to rattle relations between the world’s biggest economies.

Trump lashed out at China over the weekend, saying it stole an underwater drone from the U.S. Navy in an “unprecedented act.” Beijing’s response was muted, with the official Xinhua news agency publishing nothing on the topic Sunday while the Communist Party-affiliated Global Times mocked Trump’s demeanor as “lagging far behind the White House spokespersons.”

“China has so far practiced restraint at Trump’s provocations as he’s yet to enter the White House,” the newspaper said. “But this attitude won’t last too long after he officially becomes the U.S. president, were he still to treat China in the manner he tweeted today.”

For all the noise from Trump’s Twitter account and elements of the Chinese press, Beijing appears to be holding its fire at least until after he takes office next month. Until then, it looks set to continue the stance of “strategic composure” articulated after Trump questioned the U.S. policy of diplomatically recognizing Beijing instead of Taiwan.

Beijing will “strike back firmly” if Trump as president openly challenges China’s core interests like Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and an adviser to China’s State Council. Options include recalling the ambassador, stopping international cooperation, fighting a trade war, and even severing diplomatic relations.

“So far, China has adopted a cautious, measured approach of wait and see,” Shi said. “The government is still closely observing what Trump is up to and in the process of forming a clear view on his possible policy. This approach will likely continue into his presidency for the first couple of months.”

The fallout from worsening relations threatens a two-way trade relationship that reached $627 billion in 2015, more than U.S.’s combined commerce with Japan, Britain. and Germany. While some policymakers in Beijing initially hoped that Trump would bring a more pragmatic approach, that view is quickly fading.

In an editorial last week after Trump questioned the One-China policy, the Global Times said: “We shall harbor no illusions, and get ready to wrist-fight with Trump.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi, without mentioning Trump’s name, said that anyone who tries to destroy China’s core interests would shoot themselves in the foot.

President Barack Obama used one of his final press conferences in office to emphasize the need for a comprehensive plan if Trump wants to upend decades of U.S. policy toward China, particularly regarding Taiwan, which Beijing views as its territory. China’s reaction, Obama said, “could end up being very significant.”

“That doesn’t mean that you have to adhere to everything that’s been done in the past,” Obama said Friday. “It does mean that you’ve got to think it through and have planned for potential reactions that they may engage in.”

Trump’s reaction to the drone incident raises questions about whether that’s the case. He deleted his first tweet after writing “unpresidented” rather than “unprecedented.” Later, after tensions appeared to have been diffused, Trump sent another tweet: “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back –– let them keep it!”

Such a response would deprive the U.S. of the ability to assess what information China sought to obtain while analyzing the drone after it was seized, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.

“It just shows that Trump hasn’t thought out his policy before he tweets it,” Davis said. “The risk is that he is going to confront China to the point where it is destabilizing.”

The drone incident showed how quickly tensions between the nations could escalate, particularly as China challenges U.S. naval supremacy in Asia.

The Pentagon said a Chinese vessel unlawfully seized the small unmanned vehicle Thursday while the USNS Bowditch was collecting it in a routine operation 50 nautical miles northwest of Subic Bay in the Philippines. China said it picked up the drone for safety reasons, while blaming the U.S.’s surveillance activities for hurting relations between the two nations.

“Under Trump, China-U.S. conflicts in the South China Sea are likely to ratchet up or even deepen, with unpredictable incidents like the Bowditch episode to occur from time to time,” said Li Jie, a senior researcher at the Chinese Naval Research Institute in Beijing.

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(Wadhams reported from Washington.)

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©2016 Bloomberg News

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