A Polish tank moves into position to join NATO allies during an exercise in Adazi, Latvia, Nov. 13, 2023. European nations could achieve near autonomy for the continent’s defense at the cost of an additional $530 billion over the next 10 years according to a recent study published by the Kiel Institute. (H Howey/U.S. Army)
STUTTGART, Germany — Europe can break its dependence on U.S. military muscle over the next 10 years by spending about $55 billion more annually on defense, says a new study identifying key security gaps that must be closed.
The report, which comes as the Pentagon prepares to reduce the number of U.S. troops based in Germany, argues that the biggest challenge facing Europe is finding the political will to bring a unified approach to its fragmented defense industrial network.
“The prerequisite is that Europe understands the strategic dimension of its defense challenge as its Manhattan Project,” the report’s authors said in the paper published by the Kiel Institute this month, using the American atomic bomb effort in World War II as a comparison.
Titled “Achieving European Defense Autonomy,” the report estimates that closing some of the major defense capability gaps would cost around $230 billion over the next four years. Achieving near-complete autonomy in 10 years would cost roughly $530 billion, it said.
The push for greater European military self-sufficiency comes as tensions with Washington have rattled long-standing European assumptions about U.S. security guarantees.
Concerns over President Donald Trump’s repeated criticism of NATO and uncertainty about future U.S. political support for Europe’s defense have accelerated calls for the Continent to develop a stronger military backbone.
It’s unclear whether Europe can muster the kind of unity recommended in the report. The concept, if pursued, also could bring allies into deeper political conflict with the United States.
Despite the Pentagon’s demands that Europe prepare to assume overriding responsibility for the defense of the Continent, the U.S. still aims to be a major seller of high-end weaponry to Europe. However, the report calls for largely circumventing U.S. weapons-makers.
The study identified 10 major gaps that leave Europe dependent on Washington. Command-and-control systems, air defense, satellite reconnaissance, secure communications, military cloud computing and long-range strike capabilities are among the areas in need of urgent attention, the report said
German soldiers of the multinational Battlegroup Lithuania load artillery rounds into a Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer during a live-fire exercise near Klaipeda, Lithuania, on April 23, 2025. Germany, with the largest European defense budget, would need to play the central role in a new regional coalition according to a new study that identifies key security gaps that must be closed. (Christoph Kassette/German Armed Forces)
European mass production of drones and loitering munitions also is required. Meanwhile, systems should be built free from U.S. export supply chain controls, the report said.
“Despite the world’s second-highest defense expenditure, at almost 60% of the US defense budget, Europe remains militarily dependent at every level,” the report said.
To turn things around, Germany would need to play the central role in a new European coalition.
“The path to European defense autonomy necessarily runs through the deployment of Germany’s financial and industrial resources for European defense,” the report said.
The approach also calls for a new structure that would see Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom coordinating major strategic programs.
Meanwhile, northern European countries including the Baltic states and the Netherlands should form the core of a coalition for maritime autonomy, the report said.
