President Donald Trump is flanked by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as he speaks during a Cabinet meeting March 26, 2026. Despite the recent loss of two aircraft, the administration and defense analysts say the U.S. maintains air superiority over Iran. (The White House)
Iran’s recent shootdown of an American F-15 and the subsequent mission to rescue the plane’s crew are raising questions about claims of U.S. air dominance amid White House threats to escalate the five-week-old war.
Prior to the shootdown, the U.S. repeatedly claimed that Iran’s air defenses had been decimated. The Pentagon was so confident in its control over Iran’s skies that it deployed slow-moving, low-flying B-52 bombers directly over Iranian territory last week.
President Donald Trump has signaled for weeks that he is prepared to expand U.S. strikes against Iran to power plants and bridges if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz. That would likely put more aircraft at risk of being targeted by Iranian air defenses.
But so far, Trump appears to be framing the loss of the F-15E as a one-off, noting that Iran downed the plane using a shoulder-fired missile.
“They got lucky,” he told Axios on Sunday.
The two crew members were recovered in what Trump called one of the most “daring search and rescue operations in U.S. history.”
A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft soars through the air during an exercise within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Nov. 11, 2025. The loss of an F-15 over Iran last week marked the first confirmed shootdown of a U.S. aircraft since the conflict began. (Tylin Rust/U.S. Air Force)
A U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II flies over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility during Operation Epic Fury, March 9, 2026. Iran reportedly shot down an A-10 that was able to reach Kuwaiti airspace before the pilot ejected. (U.S. Air Force)
American forces retrieved the pilot hours after he ejected and spent the following two days in a race to find the second crew member, a weapons systems officer, who was confirmed safe on Easter morning.
U.S. Central Command has reported destroying the bulk of Iran’s surface-to-air missile facilities and air defense systems.
Speaking to the nation in a prime-time address days before the jet was shot down, Trump told Americans that Iran had “no anti-aircraft equipment.”
Tehran’s forces used an unspecified new air defense system to target the fighter jet and will “definitely achieve full control” over domestic airspace, according to Iranian state media. Despite the rescue, Iran has framed the operation as a U.S. failure.
But many experts say that Iran’s claims about its air defenses are overstated and that Tehran is unlikely to have acquired an entirely new system.
In reality, the hit most likely came from a shoulder-operated missile or an older surface-to-air missile that Iranian forces had hidden in a bunker, they add.
“These guys have every incentive to hyperbolize, particularly during a war, for deterrence purposes,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told ABC on Sunday. “But everything that has just happened and transpired in Iran should change the nature of U.S. operations. Low flights in certain areas should probably be revisited.”
The shootdown doesn’t mean the U.S. has technically lost control of Iranian skies, said researchers at the Institute for the Study of War, noting that air superiority allows forces to operate without prohibitive interference but does not eliminate threats to aircraft.
“Iranian attempts to challenge U.S. and Israeli air superiority have not seriously impeded the combined force’s ability to conduct operations over Iran, as demonstrated by the persistent strikes nationwide,” analysts from the think tank wrote.
Iranian forces on Friday also shot down an A-10 Warthog, whose pilot was quickly rescued after making it into Kuwaiti airspace and ejecting, various news outlets reported.
“Statistically, you’re going to lose planes in an air campaign,” said Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Compared to past conflicts, Operation Epic Fury has had a very low loss rate per sortie, said Eisenstadt, a retired Army officer who served in Iraq, Israel and Jordan. Even if the U.S. has air superiority, that doesn’t mean the adversary can’t resist, he said.
It is possible that Iran is husbanding its supply of surface-to-air missiles, Eisenstadt said, adding that Tehran has been known to camouflage its defense systems or hide them in tunnels and culverts. They might not be able to overwhelm U.S. aircraft, but by shooting down one jet, Iranian forces are able to sow doubt about U.S. claims, he said.
“[They’re] not going to achieve success by mass, by either masses of air defenses or by shooting down large numbers,” he said. “What you do is you confound the narrative that the air defenses are completely destroyed.”
The rescue of the A-10 pilot and the F-15 crew demonstrates U.S. control, Trump said Sunday in a Truth Social post. He also gave Iran a deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, news outlets reported that the U.S. and Iran had been presented with a draft proposal for a 45-day ceasefire that would include opening the vital water route, though the chances of adoption are unclear.
Trump is set to address the nation again on Monday during a White House news conference. Iran has continued to strike civilian and military targets around the Persian Gulf, including in Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
