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Typhoon 22W (Bualoi), #15 FINAL

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: October 18, 2019

10 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 24, Japan time: Typhoon Bualoi's latest forecast track pushes it even further east of any significant land mass than it already was, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Bualoi was about 850 miles south of Misawa Air Base, Japan, moving north-northeast at 16 mph and had weakened to 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts.

If Bualoi remains on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 385 miles east-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 10 a.m. Friday.

Yokosuka's weather forecast calls for rain, heavy at times, Friday morning, with gusts up to 35 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, tapering off by late morning.

Barring any sudden changes, this is Storm Tracker's last report on Bualoi.


9 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23, Japan time: Typhoon Bualoi continues weakening as it moves north and doesn't appear primed to strike Japan -- in fact, it's forecast to pass hundreds of miles east-southeast.

But its forecast windfield should be wide enough to cause showers and gusts up to 52 mph at Yokosuka Naval Base overnight Thursday into Friday, with similar conditions but not as strong winds elsewhere in the Kanto Plain.

At 6 p.m., Bualoi was 891 miles south of Yokosuka, 143 miles south-southeast of unpopulated Iwo Jima and 715 miles north-northwest of Guam, moving north-northwest at 13 mph.

It was packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center, the Join Typhoon Warning Center reported. Typhoon-force winds extend up to 35 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 115 miles, according to the National Weather Service.

If Bualoi remains on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 350 miles east-southeast of Yokosuka at 10 a.m. Friday, still packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts. But those are at storm's center.

Yokosuka's extended forecast calls for northeasterly winds, 23- to 28-mph sustained and 40-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday, increasing to 29- to 35-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts overnight Thursday into Friday, decreasing from there. Expect showers, heavy at times. Very much like Tuesday's weather.

Model track guidance and the GFS and CMC forecast ensembles are in general agreement with the JTWC forecast track, with some outliers. Things can and do change from time to time. Stay tuned.


11 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 22, Guam time: Save for a high-surf advisory for Saipan and Tinian, all watches and warnings for the main Marianas Islands related to Typhoon Bualoi have been canceled, according to the National Weather Service.

Bualoi remains on a northwesterly track, is forecast to peak at just below Category 4-equivalent super typhoon strength but also remains forecast to stay well away from any significant land masses.

At 7 p.m., Bualoi was 360 miles north of Guam and 265 miles north-northwest of Saipan, hurtling northwest at 14 mph packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts.

If Bualoi's current forecast holds, it's due to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts overnight Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually weakening as it curves north.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Bualoi to pass 18 miles east of unpopulated Iwo Jima at about 4 a.m. Thursday, then curve northeast, with closest point of approach to Yokosuka Naval Base 340 miles southeast at 2 p.m. Friday.


9:45 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 22, Guam time: The typhoon warning is no longer in effect for Saipan and Tinian, according to the National Weather Service, as Typhoon Bualoi keeps moving northwest away from the Marianas.

At 7 a.m., Bualoi was 110 miles north of Saipan and 225 miles north of Guam, moving northwest at 14 mph, remaining a Category 4-equivalent typhoon with sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts.

Iwo Jima is next on Bualoi's itinerary, direct hit forecast for 7 a.m. Thursday, followed by a curve northeast, with Bualoi projected to remain well away from any land mass.


7:30 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 22, Guam time: Typhoon Bualoi has reached Category 4-equivalent intensity as it passed overnight just north of the main Marianas Islands.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, according to the National Weather Service, and Typhoon Condition I remains in effect for Saipan, according to the CNMI governor's office's Facebook page.

At 4 a.m., Bualoi was 198 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, headed northwest at 14 mph and packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 25 miles from and tropical storm-force winds 120 miles northeast and 85 miles elsewhere, NWS reports.

If Bualoi remains on its present heading, it's due to move out of the area Tuesday afternoon, peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts, put Iwo Jima in its crosshairs for a direct hit at around 5 p.m. Friday, then curve northeast and dissipate over the north Pacific over the weekend.


6:45 p.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Guam time: The typhoon watch for Rota has been canceled, according to the National Weather Service. Damaging winds are no longer forecast for the island just northeast of Guam.

A typhoon warning does remain raised for Saipan and Tinian, with Typhoon Bualoi's closest point of approach forecast for just past midnight as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, but still well northeast of Guam and with its destructive wind bands just out of reach of Saipan and Tinian.

At 4 p.m., Bualoi was 120 miles east of Saipan and 180 miles east-northeast of Guam, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

If it stays on present heading, Bualoi is forecast to pass 180 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, 59 miles north-northeast of Saipan and 79 miles north-northeast of Tinian between 11 p.m. Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Commonwealth of Northern Marianas office of the governor directed that people stay off the roads after 6 p.m. Public transportation services also ceased at that hour. In case of power outages, line crews cannot service the outages until after the all clear is given.


1 p.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Guam time: The tropical storm warning for Guam has been canceled, according to the National Weather Service.

A typhoon warning does remain in effect for Tinian and Saipan and a typhoon watch remains up for Rota. Destructive winds of 74 mph are possible for Tinian and Saipan through Tuesday morning, and damaging 39-mph winds remain possible for Rota late Monday evening, NWS reports.

At 10 a.m., Typhoon Bualoi was 175 miles east-southeast of Saipan and 230 miles east of Guam, moving northwest at 13 mph packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Typhoon-force winds extend up to 35 miles from center and tropical storm-force winds 130 miles north and 100 miles south, NWS reports.

If Bualoi remains on its current path, it’s forecast to pass 76 miles north-northeast of Tinian, 58 miles north-northeast of Saipan and 178 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base between 9 p.m. and midnight Monday, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts.

But those are at storm center. Bualoi remains a compact storm with a wind field spanning about 200 miles. Bualoi’s forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands remain close to center, stretching but 35 miles southwest, the quadrant facing Saipan and Tinian.

From there, it’s pretty much the same story as reported previously. Bualoi remains forecast to peak as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, make a near-direct hit on Iwo Jima at 9 a.m. Thursday, then curve northeast, passing 300 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 8 p.m. Friday.
 

7 a.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Guam time: Typhoon Bualoi continues to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest toward the Marianas. But the wind field remains compact and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track indicates Saipan and Tinian could be spared Bualoi's most destructive winds.

At 4 a.m., Bualoi was 290 miles east of Guam and 260 miles east-southeast of Saipan, moving northwest at 12 mph, packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

Saipan and Tinian remain under a typhoon warning, according to the National Weather Service, and typhoon Condition II, according to the CNMI governor's office. Rota remains under a typhoon watch and Guam under a tropical storm watch, NWS reports.

If Bualoi stays on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 171 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, 68 miles north-northeast of Tinian and 48 miles north-northeast of Saipan about 10 p.m. Monday, packing 110-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Bualoi's destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind band extends 35 miles southwest, the quadrant facing the main Marianas Islands. While late Monday into Tuesday should be rainy and quite gusty, this likely won't be a rerun of Hagabis two weeks ago.

Beyond Tuesday, Bualoi remains forecast to track northwest, make a near-direct hit on Iwo Jima at 9 a.m. Thursday, peak as a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, then track northeast well away from any major land masses.


12:45 a.m. Monday, Oct. 21, Guam time: Typhoon Bualoi continues to gradually intensify and it's due to pass the main Marianas Islands as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon overnight Monday. But its full fury might only skim Saipan and Tinian as it continues moving northwest this week.

Though strong at its center, Bualoi remains a compact storm. Its wind field is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to extend but 195 miles or so when it's due to pass 44 miles north-northeast of Saipan and 62 miles north-northeast of Tinian in the wee hours on Tuesday.

Bualoi's destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands are only forecast by JTWC to extend 23 miles southwest, the quadrant facing Tinian and Saipan. Thus, those two islands could be spared Bualoi's full fury, but a lot can change even in the course of 24 hours.

Thus, the National Weather Service reports a typhoon warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian, a typhoon watch for Rota to the south and a tropical storm watch for Guam, which might miss Bualoi's forecast wind field completely.

From there, Bualoi remains forecast to peak at Category 4-equivalent intensity, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts by mid-evening Wednesday. The only significant land mass it might encounter is Iwo Jima, forecast to make a near-direct hit at mid-morning Thursday.


7 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Guam time: Bualoi has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

It remains forecast to skim north of the main Marianas Islands, passing well north of Guam before tracking northwest, then curving northeast later this week, peaking as a Category 4-equivalent storm but well away from any major land mass.

A typhoon warning has been issued for Saipan and Tinian according to the National Weather Service. Destructive typhoon-force 74-mph winds or greater are possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Rota and a tropical storm watch for Guam.

At 5 p.m., Bualoi was 370 miles east-southeast of Saipan and 390 miles east-southeast of Guam, moving northwest at 13 mph, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 95 miles northwest of center and 45 miles elsewhere, NWS reports.

If Bualoi stays on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 153 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at about 10 p.m. Monday, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts but at storm's center. Destructive winds are not forecast for Guam at this time, though up to 5 inches of rain associated with Bualoi are forecast.

Once past the Marianas, Bualoi is forecast to continue heading northwest and peak as a Category 4-equivalent storm, 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Tuesday before curving northeast, staying well away from any land masses.


10:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Guam time: The news gets slightly better for U.S. bases on Guam regarding Tropical Storm Bualoi.

The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track edges Bualoi a bit further north of the island. And the stronger quadrants appear to be facing north and northwest, away from the island; thus, if the current JTWC forecast holds, Guam could be out of harm's way.

The news is not so good for Saipan and Tinian, which appear to be in the crosshairs for a near-direct hit from Bualoi as a potential Category 2-equivalent typhoon, just two weeks after Hagibis roared through the area.

At 7 a.m., Bualoi was 495 miles east-southeast of Guam and 480 miles east-southeast of Saipan, tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend 120 miles northwest of center and 85 miles everywhere else, according to the National Weather Service.

A typhoon watch remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian and Rota, while a tropical storm watch remains up for Guam.

Commonwealth of Northern Marianas is already bracing for Bualoi's effects, which should be pronounced early Tuesday: A Category 2-equivalent storm packing 104-mph sustained winds at center.

If the current JTWC forecast holds, Bualoi is due to pass 132 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at 1 a.m. Tuesday, with Guam well out of Bualoi's forecast 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands.

From there, Bualoi is forecast to move northwest, then curve northeast later in the week, well away from any land masses.


2:30 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 20, Guam time: Tropical Storm 22W now has a name, Bualoi, which stands for a Thai dessert. But this might be anything but a sweet treat as Bualoi continues tracking toward the Marianas for a possible Monday or Tuesday rendezvous.

A typhoon watch remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian and Rota; typhoon-force winds of 74 mph or greater are possible Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to the National Weather Service.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Guam.

U.S. bases and the Mariianas Islands remain in Condition of Readiness 4 for now; expect an upgrade sometime during the day Sunday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Bualoi to pass 108 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base around 1 a.m. Tuesday packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

It appears as if Bualoi may split the difference between Saipan and Tinian, not quite as powerful as Super Typhoon Hagibis two weeks ago, but still strong.

From there, Bualoi is forecast by JTWC to curve north and remain well away from any land masses.

9:45 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Guam time: 22W has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and remains forecast to pass just north of Guam early Tuesday morning. A typhoon watch remains in effect for Saipan, Rota and Tinian and a tropical storm watch for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.
 

2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Guam time: A typhoon watch is in effect for Saipan, Tinian and Rota and a tropical storm watch for Guam, according to the National Weather Service.


1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Guam time: 97W Invest spawned into Tropical Depression 22W at mid-morning Saturday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects 22W to track west-northwest through the Marianas, much as Hagibis did two weeks ago, passing 102 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base at about 3 a.m. Tuesday packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center.

While Tinian appears to be in the crosshairs at the moment, it's early and things could change. There remains a vast spread among solutions, with both the GFS and CMC ensembles depicting northeast curves in the long term. Stay tuned.


9:30 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Guam time: Latest model track guidance and GFS and CMC forecast ensembles agree on a track by 97W Invest in the general direction of the Marianas, followed by a curve northeast, with 97W likely not a threat to Japan, at least at the moment. Plenty of outliers, though. PST is keeping watch.

2 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 19, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued on a new disturbance, labeled 97W Invest, about 1,100 miles east-southeast of Guam and headed in the general direction of the Marianas Islands, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Model guidance is somewhat mixed, with the GFS forecast ensemble depicting a straight run west with a few outliers, and the CMC ensemble favoring a curve northeast with plenty of outliers. This one bears watching.

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