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Typhoon 20W (Megi), #15 FINAL

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 25, 2016

5 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 28, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi has made secondary landfall over the southeast China coast, after leaving nearly 3 million without electricity in Taiwan after making landfall Tuesday afternoon. At least four were killed and 375 injured, according to news reports. Megi is forecast to dissipate over China in the coming days. This is PST’s final update on Megi.


7 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi slammed ashore over the less-populated east coast of Taiwan around Hualien at about 1:30 p.m. local time, packing 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts as it made landfall.

Nearly 40 people were injured, almost 1 million homes lost power, classes and business were shuttered and all flights and rail services were canceled, CNN reported. A good 38 inches of rain fell in Yilan County.

Megi was the third tropical cyclone to affect Taiwan in two weeks, following Super Typhoon Meranti on Sept. 14 and Typhoon Malakas on Sept. 16. Super Typhoon Nepartak pounded Taiwan in early July as well.


10 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi's forecast track has edged slightly more northwest, taking it closer to Taipei and further away from Kaohsiung and the northern Philippines' island groups.

At 8 a.m., Megi was 175 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, headed northwest at 15 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

Expect Megi to roar ashore over central Taiwan Tuesday evening, passing 98 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 90 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung, still packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.

In the Philippines, Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for the northern Batanes island group and Signal 1 for Northern Cagayan including the Babuyan island group.


5 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27, Taiwan-Philippines time: It should happen sometime Tuesday afternoon. Typhoon Megi continues taking aim at landfall over the east coast of Taiwan.

At 2 a.m., Megi was 262 miles southeast of Taipei, the island’s capital, headed west-northwest at 13 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center. If it stays on course, expect landfall at about 5 p.m. at just below that intensity. Not in Meranti’s class, but still a mean monster.

Though the center remains well out of Okinawa’s way, Megi is still a big storm in terms of diameter and the island can still expect a gusty, showery Tuesday.

In the Philippines, Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains raised for Batanes island group and PSWS 1 for northern Cagtayan including the Babuyan island group.


5 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27, Taiwan-Philippines time: It should happen sometime Tuesday afternoon. Typhoon Megi continues taking aim at landfall over the east coast of Taiwan.

At 2 a.m., Megi was 262 miles southeast of Taipei, the island’s capital, headed west-northwest at 13 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center. If it stays on course, expect landfall at about 5 p.m. at just below that intensity. Not in Meranti’s class, but still a mean monster.

Though the center remains well out of Okinawa’s way, Megi is still a big storm in terms of diameter and the island can still expect a gusty, showery Tuesday.


4 p.m. Monday, Sept. 26, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi has slightly picked up forward speed and continues on a west-northwest course bound for landfall over central Taiwan on Tuesday afternoon, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 2 p.m. (3 p.m. Japan time), Megi was 392 miles east-southeast of Taipei, the island's capital, and 353 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, churing west-northwest at 13 mph. Intensity increased slightly to 110-mph sustained winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

Okinawa remains well out of Megi's range; closest point of approach is about that same distance from Kadena at 8 p.m. Monday. U.S. bases on island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. And though the weather's been gusty most of Monday, no upgraded TCCOR is forecast for the moment.

Megi is forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts early Tuesday morning, decreasing slightly as it makes landfall at mid-afternoon Tuesday and picking up a bit as it heads back over water, across the Formosa Strait.

Megi is projected to pass 116 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 71 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung, packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it crosses Taiwan's mountainous terrain.

It should remain well north of the Philippines' main islands, but the small island groups should get a healthy dose of Megi's fury. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 remains up for Batanes and Signal 1 for the Babuyan islands and northern Cagayan.

Secondary landfall over southeastern China is forecast for mid-afternoon Wednesday as a severe tropical storm, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts, dissipating rapidly as it heads over land.


11 a.m. Monday, Sept. 26, Taiwan-Philippines time: Little change to Megi. U.S. bases on Okinawa still well out of harm's way, though the next two days should be gusty, showery ones. Megi forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at center just before plowing through central Taiwan at mid-afternoon Tuesday. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 up for Batanes and Signal 1 for Babuyan group of islands in northern Philippines.


5:30 a.m. Monday, Sept. 26, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi’s forecast track has edged a bit north, placing it on course to make landfall more over central Taiwan.

At 2 a.m., Megi was 408 miles almost due south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, tracking west-northwest at 12 mph, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

Expect a gusty, showery early part of the week on Okinawa, 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms and easterly winds up to 25 mph with gusts up to 36 mph. U.S. bases on the island remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Megi is due to make landfall over central Taiwan, passing 121 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 67 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung, packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts as it crashes ashore on Taiwan’s east coast at mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Though Megi’s center is still expected to pass well north of the Philippines, its northernmost island groups remain in harm’s way. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 is raised for the Batanes and Signal 1 for the Babuyan island groups. This after getting slammed by Meranti two weeks ago.


11 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 25, Taiwan-Philippines time: Typhoon Megi remains on its headlong path toward Taiwan as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, and U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and safely out of harm’s way, if all stays as is.

At 8 p.m., Megi was just more than 600 miles east-southeast of Taipei, the island’s capital, tracking west-northwest at 12 mph, holding steady at 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center. Megi remains forecast to peak at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts just before making landfall Tuesday morning over south-central Taiwan.

Megi is forecast to pass 377 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 5 p.m. Monday. Okinawa should experience Megi’s far outer bands, but some goodly winds, between 20- to 25-mph sustained and 35-mph gusts with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Megi, called Helen in the Philippines, will also likely affect that country’s northernmost island groups. The country’s weather authority PAGASA reports that Public Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised for the Babuyan and Batanes island groups that got battered earlier this month by Super Typhoon Meranti.

Secondary landfall should occur over southeastern China Wednesday evening, and Megi should pass just 115 miles north of Hong Kong as a tropical storm at 5 p.m. Thursday before dissipating inland.


11 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 25, Taiwan time: Little change regarding Typhoon Megi. It remains on course to bulldoze through southern Taiwan on Tuesday afternoon and peak Category 3-equivalent strength, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 8 a.m. Sunday, Megi was 560 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, churning west-northwest at 14 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts at center.

If it remains on its current track, Megi is forecast to peak at 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at 8 a.m. Tuesday, just before making landfall over southern Taiwan.

Megi is projected to pass 32 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung and 154 miles south-southwest of Taipei as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, at least. More bad stuff following Meranti's recent visit.

And Megi, called Helen in the Philippines, has entered that country's area of responsibility. Public Storm Warning Signal 1 has been raised for the Batanes islands, which also got pounded by Meranti.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and safely out of harm's way. Megi is forecast to pass 383 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 4 p.m. Monday. Local forecast calls for gusts up to 37 mph and 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.


10:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 24, Taiwan time: Megi didn't take long at all strengthening into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon; just 1½ days into its existence as a tropical cyclone.

It remains due to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center at mid-evening Monday, plow across southern Taiwan Tuesday afternoon and evening as a Category 2-equivalent storm, and remain well out of Okinawa's way.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Megi to pass 380 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base early Monday afternoon. U.S. bases remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


4:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 24, Taiwan time: Megi's forecast track has edged closer to Okinawa, and its intensity and forward speed have increased, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 3 p.m., Tropical Storm Megi was 741 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and about 660 miles west-northwest of Guam, tracking northwest at 15 mph. Its intensity is just below Category  1-equivalent typhoon strength, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts.

If Megi remains on its current course, it's due to peak at 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at 3 p.m. Monday -- the same time it makes closest point of approach to Kadena, 360 miles southwest.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. No upgrade is anticipated at this point.

Landfall over Taiwan is forecast for mid-afternoon Tuesday. Megi is forecast to pass 41 miles northeast of Kaohsiung and 147 miles south-southwest of Taipei between 8 and 9 p.m Tuesday, still packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts. Not Meranti-esque, but in the neighborhood.


8 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 24, Taiwan time: Tropical Storm Megi remains on course to plow into southern Taiwan Tuesday morning, but is now only forecast to peak at 92-mph sustained winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Megi is projected to make a near-direct hit on Kaohsiung, in southern Taiwan, at about 7 p.m. Tuesday, as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon. Nothing quite as bad as Meranti not too long ago, but the last thing the island needs in Meranti's wake.

Okinawa remains safely out of harm's way, for now; Megi is forecast to pass 400 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 1 p.m. Monday.

Shogunweather.com, Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight official Web site, forecasts cloudy skies, 40- to 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms and winds peaking at 27-mph sustained and 38-mph gusts Monday afternoon and evening.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.


11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Tropical Storm Megi's forecast track has edged a bit further south of Okinawa. It is now projected to peak as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, late Monday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 p.m., Megi was just over 1,100 miles east-southeast of Taipei, heading almost due west at 17 mph, still at 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

If it remains on its current course, Megi is due to pass 360 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 2 a.m. Monday, packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are not currently forecast for Okinawa. U.S. bases there remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

Megi shouldn't be anywhere close to as powerful as Meranti several days ago, but southern Taiwan is due for a direct hit early Tuesday morning, 147 miles south-southwest of Taipei and 40 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung, packing Category 1-equivalent force as it roars ashore.


5:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, Japan time: Well, that didn't take long. Megi intensified rather rapidly into a tropical storm, halfway through its first day of existence as a tropical cyclone. And the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track takes Megi a bit closer to Okinawa.

At 3 p.m., Megi was 920 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base and has assumed a northwest track at 23 mph, packing sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

JTWC projects Megi to pass 338 miles south-southwest of Kadena at 7 a.m. Monday -- still pretty far away, but more than 70 miles closer than PST reported earlier Friday.

Megi is forecast to peak at 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Monday, after it's made forecast closest point of approach to Okinawa.

And Megi is due to make landfall further north over Taiwan, 52 miles north-northeast of Kaohsiung and 135 miles south-southwest of Taipei, the capital, between 10 a.m. and noon Tuesday, still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it rams ashore and crosses the island.

Secondary landfall is forecast for mid-day Wednesday over China's southeast coast.

Model guidance remains in tight agreement, with a slight spread among solutions.


1 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, Japan time: It took a couple of days, but Megi finally became a tropical depression Friday morning, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's initial forecast track takes Megi toward southern Taiwan -- scant days after it got battered by Super Typhoon Meranti.

At 9 a.m., Megi was 1,345 miles east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan's capital, headed northwest at 15 mph. JTWC projects Megi's track to flatten west-northwest and plow into southern Taiwan, 14 miles south of Kaohsiung at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Peak winds are forecast to be 115-mph sustained with 144-mph gusts at center at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

JTWC forecasts Megi to track well below Okinawa, about 410 miles south-southwest at 2 p.m. Monday. Local forecasts call for rain and wind to kick up Sunday and taper off by Monday afternoon. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, and will likely stay that way.


1:45 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 22, Guam time: Tropical Disturbance 96W Invest has moved southwest of Guam, and model guidance continues to show a west-northwest track toward Taiwan.

96W Invest has already been labeled a tropical depression by Japan Meteorological Agency, but remains subject to a tropical cyclone formation alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

National Weather Service on Guam stated that 96W Invest could become a tropical cyclone sometime late Thursday or Friday.

At noon, 96W Invest was 300 miles southwest of Guam. NWS said in a statement that the main Marianas islands could feel winds between 20 and 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph along with showers and thunderstorms as 96W Invest moves west.


7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, Guam time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on a new disturbance about 450 miles east-southeast of Guam.

JTWC projects that it will head west-northwest in the Marianas Islands’ general direction. The National Weather Service on Guam said in a special statement that it could become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

It would become the 20th numbered storm of the northwest Pacific’s season.

Model guidance is in general agreement on a track toward -- yep -- Taiwan, again, with only a couple of models depicting a track toward Okinawa.

If it becomes a named storm, it would be called Megi, Korean for catfish.
 

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