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Typhoon 15W (Lingling), #24 FINAL

U.S. NAVY

By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 6, 2019

8 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 8, Korea time: The all clear has been announced. Power is slowly being restored to Yongsan Garrison's south post, the shelter in place order has been lifted, the weather is calm and the cleanup has begun from a rough Saturday visit by Typhoon Lingling. This concludes Storm Tracker's coverage of Lingling.

7:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Things are calming down at Camp Humphreys as Typhoon Lingling continues moving north. Humphreys expects to resume normal operations and services at regular times on Sunday morning. But all traffic should be limited in the meantime to mission-essential only, according to the base’s Facebook page.

6 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 7, Korea time: All gates are closed, no walking outside is permitted and residents and hotel guests are ordered to stay inside at Yongsan Garrison in downtown Seoul.

Trees and power lines are down on post due to winds and squalls from Typhoon Lingling, with power lost to South Post; officials said power would remain out on South Post until Monday morning. Dragon Hill Lodge and the Allgood Army Hospital were operating on emergency generators.

Elsewhere, Osan Air Base issued the All Clear at 5:45 p.m. Saturday, although road conditions remain Red. Osan’s and Camp Humphreys’ official Facebook page also posted images showing damage from the storm, felled tree lines and damaged buildings.

Lingling made landfall at mid-afternoon over Ongjin in Hwanghae Province along North Korea’s southwest coast. At 3 p.m., Lingling was 97 miles west-northwest of Yongsan, moving almost due north at 22 mph.

But Seoul and other U.S. bases along Korea’s west coast continue getting lashed by Lingling’s east quadrants, typically the worst of the four, both facing the coast. Keep checking back here and with your bases’ official Facebook pages for the latest.

12:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Gusty winds and showers, some heavy, are soaking the ground from Daegu to Seoul – and dotting everything from TV weather graphics and hundreds of people’s phone apps – as Typhoon Lingling continues moving north toward North Korea’s southwest coast.

At 9 a.m., Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Lingling was 135 miles southwest of Osan Air Base, moving due north at 31 mph and had weakened significantly, to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts, from Category 2 to Category 1-equivalent strength in a matter of six hours.

But by no means is that to suggest that Korea is out of the woods yet. The east quadrants, typically the worst ones in a northern hemisphere tropical cyclone, are facing Korea’s west coast and giving it heck in the way of low, fast-moving clouds causing winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy rain squalls, lasting anywhere from a few minutes to a half hour.

Areas I, II and III U.S. bases in Korea remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Camp Humphreys’ official Facebook page reports road conditions remain Red (emergency vehicles only) and Lingling-related gusts and showers are to continue until about 6 p.m. Most non-essential services remain closed, commissaries, exchanges, taxis and buses.

JTWC projects Lingling to keep moving north and make landfall at mid-afternoon over Ongjin in Hwanghae Province in southwestern North Korea, then into eastern Manchuria on Sunday before dissipating.

6 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 7, Korea time: Typhoon Lingling has weakened slightly and has begun moving rapidly north, forecast by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass U.S. bases on Korea’s west coast by the middle of Sunday and be out of the area quickly.

At 3 a.m., Lingling was 180 miles west-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, moving north at 29 mph, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts. Areas I, II and III remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; residents are urged to stay indoors until the danger has passed.

If Lingling stays on its present heading — due north — it’s forecast to pass 84 miles west of Kunsan and 99 miles west of Humphreys and Osan Air Base between 9 a.m. and noon Saturday. JTWC projects Lingling to maintain Category 1-equivalent status when it makes forecast landfall at mid-afternoon over the southwest coast of North Korea.

 

11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Korea time: Area III and Camp Humphreys entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 at 10:30 p.m. in advance of Typhoon Lingling. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.

Lingling’s latest forecast track brings it a tad closer to U.S. bases on Korea’s west coast. It is gradually ramping down in intensity, but expect a blustery Saturday replete with rain, heavy at times, as Lingling trudges toward forecast landfall in the early evening over North Korea’s southwest coast.

At 9 p.m., Lingling was 337 miles south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, headed almost due north at 18 mph packing 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts.

If Lingling stays on its current course, it’s forecast to pass 82 miles west of Kunsan, 92 miles west of Humphreys and 90 miles west of Osan Air Base between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. Saturday, still packing 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at center as it presses north.

 

6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Korea time: It is happening, folks, a Category 3-equivalent beast bearing down on Korea’s west coast. And U.S. bases along that coast are getting prepared and bracing themselves for what could be a nasty weekend.

At 3 p.m., Typhoon Lingling was 442 miles south of Kunsan Air Base, headed north at 17 mph and had diminished slightly, to 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts – still a vicious monster, and still forecast to skim the west coast of Korea, where the bigger U.S. bases are.

If Lingling keeps on its current heading, it’s forecast to keep moving north, maintaining 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts as it enters the Yellow Sea early Saturday, diminishing only to 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it makes landfall at 3 p.m. Saturday over Ongjin on North Korea’s southwest coast.

Lingling is forecast to pass 84 miles west of Kunsan at 10 a.m. Saturday. The base’s official Facebook page states gusts up to 58 mph are forecast along with 1 to 3 inches of rain. Closest point of approach to Osan Air Base is 94 miles west at 2 p.m. Saturday. Expect sustained winds of 35 mph and 46-mph gusts over the next day or so, with 1 to 2 inches of rain.

JTWC projects Lingling to pass 95 miles west of Camp Humphreys at 1 p.m. Saturday. Humphreys remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2, with TCCOR 1 expected to be set at 1 a.m. Saturday, according to Humphreys’ official Facebook page.

Peak winds of 40 mph with gusts exceeding 50 are forecast for 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Saturday. During TCCOR 1, road conditions are red, with only emergency vehicles permitted on roads. Taxis and shuttle bus service is suspended after 1 a.m. until the all clear is sounded. MWR activities are also secured.

1:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Korea time: Area III and Camp Humphreys expect to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 2 p.m. local time, according to Humphreys’ official Facebook page. TCCOR 1 is expected to be set at 1 a.m. Saturday. Exchange and commissary will close at their regular time, 9 p.m. Base clubs will close at 9 p.m. and on-post taxis and shuttle buses are expected to cease operations at 1 a.m. Updates to come if needed.

12:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Japan time: Typhoon Lingling has moved far enough northwest of Okinawa that destructive winds are no longer forecast for the area. U.S. bases on island have reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 as a result.

11:45 a.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Korea time: On the Typhoon Lingling Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness scoreboard, it remains Okinawa in Storm Watch and U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in TCCOR 3 as of mid-day Friday.

On the weather map, Lingling just missed (for now) becoming the third super typhoon of the season, peaking at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it’s starting to move northward faster en route to skimming Korea’s west coast this weekend, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 9 a.m., Lingling was 541 miles south of Kunsan Air Base and 199 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed north at 14 mph.

If Lingling remains on its current course, it’s forecast to keep heading north, diminishing as it heads into the Yellow Sea (West Sea), passing 98 miles west of Kunsan and 112 miles west of Humphreys and Osan Air Base between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. Saturday.

JTWC projects Lingling to barrel ashore over Ongjin on North Korea’s southwest coast and into eastern Manchuria overnight Saturday.

Kunsan’s official Facebook page projects gusts up to 58 mph and between 1 to 3 inches of rain associated with Lingling. Osan’s official Facebook page forecasts winds between 40 and 52 mph with 2 to 4 inches of rain. Camp Humphreys forecasts sustained 40-mph winds and 50-mph gusts between 6 and 11 p.m. Saturday.

6:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch.

While Typhoon Lingling continues moving north and away from the island, it remains close enough that high winds that could meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C or higher.

3:20 a.m. Friday, Sept. 6, Japan/Korea time: Time of closest point of approach by Typhoon Lingling to Okinawa has now come and gone, 162 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 1 a.m.

Quite showery and gusty out there; peak sustained winds of about 40 to 45 mph thus far, with gusts higher in some places. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

That could change, depending on how far Lingling moves north ... or if winds from the storm's back-side winds have a more effect than forecast. This thing is a monster and it's still close by. Keep your safe on, campers.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that Lingling has also peaked in intensity, remaining a Category 4-equivalent storm, featuring a 23-mile-wide eye and 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts at center and moving north at 8 mph.

Things were really bad about 180 miles southwest on Miyako Island, where a wind gust of 136 mph was recorded at Shimoji Airport, the second strongest ever recorded there.

More than 320 ferries and 110 flights have been canceled, affecting some 8,000 travelers, while 20,000 homes on Miyako are reported without power.

If Lingling stays on its present heading, it's forecast to keep moving north, picking up forward track speed and gradually weakening as it moves into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) into the weekend.

Camp Humphreys remains in TCCOR 3; expect that to be upgraded mid-day or afternoon Friday. Osan Air Base projects winds between 40 and 52 mph and 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Lingling as it passes.

JTWC projects Lingling to pass 97 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 103 miles west of Humphreys and 102 west of Osan between 2 and 5 p.m. Saturday, packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as it enters the Yellow Sea and diminishing as it moves north.

This post will be updated at mid-day Friday.


6:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time: Little change regarding Typhoon Lingling. It's still a Category 4-equivalent monster, sporting a 23-mile-wide eye, and is picking up forward speed north, getting ready to pass west of Okinawa tonight and skim the west coast of Korea this weekend.

Still, Lingling's forecast track keeps Okinawa an arm's length out of harm's way. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, and destructive winds are not forecast to occur at the moment. But the least little nudge east could change all that.

At 3 p.m., Lingling was 186 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed north at 9 mph and holding steady at 132-mph sustained winds and 161 mph gusts.

If Lingling continues on its present heading, it's forecast to pass 165 miles west of Kadena at 1 a.m. Friday, peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts about two hours later and pick up forward speed on its journey toward the Yellow Sea (West Sea).

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 7 p.m. Thursday.
-- Onset of destructive 58-mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur at the moment.
-- Peak 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts: 1 a.m. Friday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday.

With heavy showers forecast, expect between 4 to 6 inches of rain associated with Lingling, the Weather Flight announced.

Friday's high school football season opener pitting Kadena at Kubasaki has been postponed to 5 p.m. Saturday due to Typhoon Lingling, DODEA Pacific South officials announced.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Lingling to gradually weaken as it heads north, passing 85 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 95 miles west of Camp Humphreys and 93 miles west of Osan Air Base between 1 and 5 p.m. Saturday.

Lingling remains forecast to make landfall over Ongjin along North Korea's southwest coast and push into Manchuria Sunday afternoon.


12:40 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 5, Japan time: The bad news: Lingling has suddenly morphed into a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, and is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at center as it passes west of Okinawa.

The good news: The forecast track has shifted further west of Okinawa, and also South Korea, than previously reported. While Lingling is blooming into a monster, its destructive 58-mph wind bands are still forecast to miss Okinawa and might also just miss Korea’s west coast.

At 9 a.m., Lingling was 223 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, headed north at 7 mph and had strengthened to 132-mph sustained winds and 161-mph gusts – Category 4-equivalent intensity. And rather quickly. From Category 2- equivalent to Cat 4 in just over six hours.

If Lingling stays on its present course, it’s forecast to pass 160 miles west of Kadena at 2 a.m. Friday at JTWC-projected peak forecast intensity, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts.

But again, it’s a matter of how far Kadena is from Lingling’s forecast destructive 50-knot (58-mph) wind bands. Currently, JTWC projects those to stretch 81 miles northeast and 69 miles southeast of center as Lingling is forecast to pass Okinawa. Close, but far enough to keep destructive winds out of range, for now.

Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Thursday.
-- Onset of destructive 58-mph winds: Not forecast to occur.
-- Peak 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts: 2 a.m. Friday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40-mph: 9 p.m. Friday.

And from there, LIngling is forecast to pick up forward track speed and head into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) as Friday becomes Saturday.

JTWC projects Lingling to pass 99 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 110 miles west of Camp Humphreys and 108 miles west of Osan Air Base between 7 p.m. Saturday and 4 a.m. Sunday. Lingling is forecast to rapidly lose power as it heads north and makes landfall over Ongjin on North Korea’s southwest coast.


6:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Lingling’s turn north is complete. Its latest forecast track bounces it farther west of Okinawa than previously reported — slightly better news for U.S. bases on the island. And U.S. bases on Korea’s west coast and to the north are starting to brace for Lingling’s forecast arrival on Saturday.

At 3 a.m., Lingling was 255 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving due north at 6 mph and had strengthened again, now a Category 2-equivalent beast, with 104 mph sustained winds and 127 mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Lingling to pass 156 miles west of Kadena at 11 p.m. Thursday at peak forecast intensity, with 121 mph sustained winds and 150 mph gusts, Category 3-equivalence.

But those are winds at the storm’s center. Lingling’s forecast band of destructive 50 knot (58 mph) winds extends 104 miles northeast and 92 miles southeast of center. Close, but still some 50-odd miles out of range of Okinawa.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, provided by Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

• Onset of 40 mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Thursday.
• Onset of destructive 58 mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur.
• Peak forecast 52 mph sustained winds and 63 mph gusts: 11 p.m. Thursday.
• Winds subsiding below 40 mph sustained: 3 p.m. Friday.

Once out of the Okinawa area, Lingling is forecast to pick up track speed, to rumble into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and to skirt the Korean peninsula’s west coast.

JTWC projects Lingling to pass about 70 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base along the west coast between 3 and 6 p.m. Saturday, and about 60 miles west-northwest of Camp Casey about 9 p.m., and to remain a significant tropical storm, if not still packing Category 1-equivalent winds, along the way.

Camp Humphreys remains in TCCOR 4; expect upgrade to that sometime Thursday, with other bases on the west coast following suit.

 

12:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 5, Japan/Korea time: Typhoon Lingling has begun curving north after its forecast track spent much of Wednesday edging closer to Okinawa.

But now it appears to be preparing for a lengthy run past Okinawa toward the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and a rendezvous with U.S. bases on Korea’s west coast, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Korea’s Area III and Camp Humphreys remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4.

At 9 p.m. Wednesday, Lingling was 284 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, tracking north-northeast at 7 mph, and had strengthened slightly, to 92 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 3. If Lingling stays on its present heading, it’s forecast to pass 135 miles west of Kadena at midnight Thursday — just three hours after reaching forecast peak Category 3-equivalent intensity, 121 mph sustained winds and 150 mph gusts.

For the moment, based on JTWC’s forecast closest point of approach, Okinawa continues to remain just out of range of Lingling’s destructive 50 knot (58 mph) wind band. Forecast destructive winds extend 92 miles northeast of center and 81 miles southeast, JTWC reports.

Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

• Onset of 40 mph sustained winds: 2 p.m. Thursday.
• Onset of destructive 58 mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur.
• Peak 52 mph sustained winds and 63 mph gusts: Midnight Thursday.
• Winds diminishing below 40 mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday.

Between 4 and 6 inches of rain associated with Lingling is forecast, the Weather Flight reports.

Lingling is forecast to pick up speed and to scoot north, away from Okinawa, as the weekend approaches, entering the Yellow Sea overnight Friday into Saturday and skirting the west coast of Korea, maintaining Category 1-equivalent intensity as it rams ashore over Haeju, North Korea.

JTWC projects Lingling will pass 56 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 64 miles west of Osan Air Base and 66 miles west of Humphreys between 4 and 8 p.m. Saturday, still maintaining 75 mph sustained winds and 92 mph gusts as it reaches Haeju. From there, it’s forecast to go northeast into Manchuria and to dissipate over land.

 

7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: Korea’s Area III and U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 in advance of Typhoon Lingling. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.

Humphreys’ official Facebook page stated that 60 mph winds are possible Friday and Saturday and to start stocking up on emergency supplies.

At 3 p.m., Lingling was 324 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, moving east-northeast at 7 mph and holding steady at 86 mph sustained winds and 104 mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in TCCOR 3; an upgrade may be possible in the coming hours, depending on Lingling’s track and intensity.

For the moment, Lingling appears to be sparing Okinawa of its full fury. JTWC projects Lingling to pass 140 miles west of Kadena at 1 a.m. Friday. A look at the latest forecast track shows Lingling’s 50-knot wind bands extending 92 miles in its northeast quadrant and 81 miles in its southeast quadrant.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Kadena, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 p.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of destructive 58 mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur.
  • Peak forecast winds: 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at 1 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday.

JTWC projects Lingling to peak at Category 3-equivalent intensity, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts about two hours after closest point of approach to Kadena, gradually weakening as it makes its way north into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) and those 50-knot wind bands skim the west coast of the Korean peninsula.

Lingling is forecast to pass 80 miles west of Kunsan Air Base, 79 miles west of Humphreys and 76 miles west of Osan Air Base between 5 and 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing 86 mph sustained winds and 104 mph gusts at center. From there, it’s forecast to make landfall just west of Haeju in North Korea, make its way into eastern Manchuria and Siberia before dissipating over land.
 

Noon Wednesday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: The bad news is, Typhoon Lingling is now forecast to peak at Category 3-equivalent strength, and just as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Lingling to pass Okinawa early Friday morning.

The good news, if there is such a thing regarding typhoons, is Lingling’s latest forecast track edges it slightly further away from Okinawa than previously reported this morning. JTWC now projects Lingling to pass 150 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 1 a.m. Friday.

Peak winds are forecast for 121-mph sustained and 150-mph gusts, but at storm’s center; JTWC’s latest track shows Kadena just out of the way of the forecast 50-knot wind bands. It still will be a not-so-nice Thursday evening and Friday morning — but hopefully, one that does not include destructive winds.

At 9 a.m., Lingling was 365 miles southwest of Kadena, moving slowly northeast at 5 mph and had strengthened to 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; whether that’s upgraded to TCCOR 2 depends on Lingling’s intensity and track direction. Wait and see for now.

Winds have already picked up on Okinawa; it’ll get even more gusty starting this evening. Kadena’s extended weather forecast calls for southeasterly 29-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts, increasing Thursday morning to 35-mph sustained and 46-mph gusts.

Here’s the latest wind forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Thursday.
  • Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: Not forecast to occur.
  • Peak 52-mph sustained winds, 63-mph gusts: 1 a.m. Friday.
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 p.m. Friday.

Then, it’s on to Korea. JTWC projects Lingling to remain a typhoon as it enters the Yellow Sea (West Sea) at mid-morning Saturday, passing 68 miles west of Kunsan Air Base and 60 miles west of Osan Air Base between 5 and 10 p.m. Saturday, gradually weakening from a typhoon to a severe tropical storm.

Lingling is forecast to make landfall near Haeju on North Korea’s southwest coast, cross the north end of the peninsula into China and eastern Siberia before dissipating over land.
 

6:30 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: The news gets slightly better for Korea as Typhoon Lingling is forecast to weaken further than previously reported as it heads north. Lingling’s forecast track has edged a bit closer to Okinawa, but for the moment, the island remains just out of the reach of destructive winds.

At 3 a.m., Lingling was 376 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, and its track had shifted northeast at 7 mph, holding steady at 75 mph sustained winds and 92 mph gusts. U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 by midday or in the afternoon Wednesday.

Lingling is now forecast to pass 132 miles west of Kadena at midnight Thursday, packing up to 115 mph sustained winds and 144 mph gusts, Lingling’s forecast peak intensity, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. And the eastern quadrants, generally the stronger of the four, are the ones facing Okinawa.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa, from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

• Sustained 40-mph winds or greater: 3 p.m. Thursday.
• Peak 46-mph sustained winds and 50 mph gusts: Midnight Thursday.
• Winds subsiding below 40 mph sustained: Noon Friday.

All that could change depending on Lingling’s intensity and any further track changes.

Lingling is then forecast to turn back north, to pick up speed and to weaken gradually as it heads toward the Korean peninsula. And it’s now due to pass farther west of U.S. bases along the coast, possibly giving them a bit of relief.

JTWC projects Lingling to pass between 50 and 60 miles west of U.S. bases along the coast between 6 and 11 p.m. Saturday, then to press through North Korea and into eastern China and Russia before dissipating inland.

 

12:15 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 4, Japan/Korea time: Less than two days into its life as a tropical cyclone, Lingling was upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Lingling remains forecast to pass west of Okinawa — U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 — then to take aim at Korea’s west coast, putting Suwon Air Base, about 30 miles south of Seoul, in its crosshairs.

At 9 p.m., Lingling was 419 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving almost due north at 8 mph, packing 75 mph sustained winds and 92 mph gusts at its center.

Lingling is forecast to pass 161 miles west of Kadena at 8 p.m. Thursday as it reaches forecast peak intensity, 115 mph sustained winds and 144 mph gusts. But those wind values are at the center. A peek at JTWC’s graphic still shows Kadena outside of Lingling’s forecast 58 mph wind bands.

Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Between 4 to 6 inches of rain is associated with Lingling:

• Sustained 40 mph winds or greater: 3 p.m. Thursday.
• Sustained destructive 58 mph winds or greater: Not forecast to occur.
• Peak 52 mph sustained winds and 63 mph gusts: 8 p.m. Thursday.
• Sustained 40 mph winds subsiding: Noon Friday.

Once past Kadena, Lingling is forecast to keep heading north, slightly weakening as it approaches Korea’s west coast, making landfall at midmorning Saturday, roughing up U.S. bases on the west coast and passing almost directly over Suwon at 3 p.m. Saturday, still packing 92 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts at its center.

From there, Lingling is forecast to skim the east coast of North Korea and China before making secondary landfall near Vladivostok in eastern Russia at mid-evening Sunday.

 

6:10 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Closer … ever closer … edges Tropical Storm Lingling’s forecast track toward Okinawa; closest point of approach is now 160 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 9 p.m. Thursday, packing 104 mph sustained winds and 127 mph gusts at center.

At 3 p.m., Lingling was 455 miles south-southwest of Kadena, moving due north at 10 mph and had intensified to just below typhoon strength, 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade sometime Wednesday.

Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

  • Sustained 40-mph winds or greater: 3 p.m.Thursday.
  • Sustained destructive 58-mph winds or greater: Not forecast to occur.
  • Peak 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts: 9 p.m. Thursday.
  • Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: Noon Friday.

If Lingling stays on its present heading, it’s forecast to peak at Category 3-equivalent intensity, reaching 115-mph sustained winds and 144-mph gusts as it passes 221 miles east of Shanghai, China, at 5 p.m. Friday local time.

Then, it’s on to the west coast of Korea, and forecast to still be packing a vicious punch as it rolls north. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Lingling to skim Korea’s west coast, finally coming ashore, still packing 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts, as it makes a near-direct hit on Incheon International Airport  at 3 p.m. Saturday.

Model track guidance remains quite divided; JTWC reports a spread of 230 miles among model solutions three days out and 460 miles five days out. Much can change. Stay tuned. More to come.

11:34 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: The 18th Wing commander has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for U.S. bases on Okinawa at noon local time. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

6 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 3, Japan/Korea time: Looks like the southwest portions of the Korean peninsula might get an unwelcome visitor come this weekend.

Tropical Storm Lingling continues to intensify. It remains forecast to pass west of Okinawa, then continuing north toward the Korean peninsula, making near-direct hits on U.S. bases along the west coast.

At 3 a.m., Lingling was 566 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed north-northwest at 13 mph and had strengthened to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

For the moment, U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Lingling is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to pass 184 miles west of Kadena at 2 p.m. Thursday.

Though the worst could be confined to Ishigaki and Miyako Islands well to the southwest, Lingling's east quadrants, the more powerful, would be facing Okinawa.

Thus, be on the lookout for a possible upgrade to TCCOR 3; it's  entirely possible for U.S. bases on Okinawa at some point Tuesday morning or afternoon. Start preparing, just in case.

JTWC projects Lingling to peak at 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts, Category 2-equivalent intensity, after closest point of approach to Okinawa.

Then, it's on to the Korean peninsula. Lingling is forecast to reach the southwest edges of Korea at about 3 a.m. Saturday packing 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts.

Closest points of approach, JTWC reports, are projected to be just west Kunsan Air Base, Camp Humphreys, Osan Air Base, Yongsan Garrison and Camp Casey between 6 a.m. and 1 p.m. Saturday.

There remains uncertainty in Lingling's forecast track speed, JTWC reports. Lingling could move slower or faster and closest points of approach could differ. Stay tuned. Next update coming Tuesday evening or sooner, depending on possible TCCOR issue.


6 p.m. Monday, Sept. 2, Japan time: Lingling wasted little time being upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Its latest forecast track edges closer to Okinawa by early Thursday evening, then continues along Korea's west coast into the weekend.

At 3 p.m., Lingling was 691 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving north-northwest at 12 mph and had strengthened slightly to 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. JTWC projects Lingling to pass 205 miles west of Kadena at 7 p.m. Thursday; any TCCOR upgrade would depend on Lingling's intensity and updated closest points of approach.

If Lingling remains on its present heading, it's forecast to peak at Category 1-equivalent strength, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts just before closest point of approach to Kadena.

Kadena's extended forecast remains the same as before: Southeasterly winds between 21 and 27 mph sustained with gusts up to 48 mph Thursday evening, then southerly winds at 35-mph sustained with gusts up to 56 mph on Friday with up to a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Beyond there, Lingling is forecast to weaken as it heads north into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) along Korea's west coast, passing 35 miles west of Kunsan Air Base at 3 p.m. Saturday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.

Model track guidance and forecast ensembles agree on a generally north track past Okinawa and toward Korea. But JTWC reports some vast differences in model solutions due to varying track speeds. It could pass Okinawa sooner or later; it could reach Korea sooner or later. It is still early yet. Stay tuned for any changes.


Noon Monday, Sept. 2, Japan time: The 15th numbered storm of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season formed Monday east of the Philippines.

Its initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track takes it between Taiwan and Japan's southwesternmost islands on course for a possible weekend rendezvous with Korea's southern coast.

At 9 a.m., Tropical Depression Lingling was 769 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 324 miles east of Manila,  moving north-northwest at 18 mph, with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 and Kadena's five-day weather forecast remains the same as previously reported.

If Lingling stays on its present heading, it's forecast to split the difference between Taiwan and Ishigaki in the next couple of days, passing 85 miles east of Taipei at midnight Wednesday local time, then peaking at 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it moves north of Taiwan.

Lingling is forecast to pass 276 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 2 a.m. Friday, then weaken slightly as it approaches the southwest coast of the Korean peninsula at the end of the current JTWC forecast.

Model track guidance, the GFS and CMC ensemble best tracks generally agree with the JTWC's initial forecast track. More should be known in the coming day or so. Stay tuned.
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Meanwhle, the Hong Kong Observatory issued Standby Signal 1 at 10:40 a.m. local time, and that should be raised for the rest of the day as 91W Invest continues heading slowly over Hainan Island in southeastern China.


6:15 a.m. Monday, Sept. 2, Japan time: It's still too early to say for sure, since it's so far south and so much can change. And it hasn't even morphed into a tropical cyclone of any description yet.

But it's a fair guess, given model tracks and the long-range forecast, that Okinawa could see some effects from 92W Invest, should it become a tropical cyclone.  And the likelihood of that remains high, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 6 a.m., 92W was 385 miles east of Manila and 851 miles south of Kadena Air Base, tracking slowly north-northwest. JTWC projects 92W to skirt the Philippines coast, gradually consolidating into a tropical depression; the question remains, when?

And if so, just how much might it affect Okinawa?

According to Kadena's five-day forecast, things should pick up gradually as the week progresses. The outlook for Friday calls for sustained 35-mph southerly winds with gusts up to 56 mph, and between a 40- and 50-percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Model-track guidance and the GFS and CMC ensemble best tracks indicate a course north, passing just west of Okinawa and on into the Korean peninsula, with some outliers suggesting southwestern Japan or the Tsushima Strait between Kyushu and the Korean Peninsula.

Again, nothing is even close to definite at this juncture. Stay tuned. More to come.
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As for 91W Invest, Strong Wind Signal 3 remains raised for Hong Kong and should continue to be so at least through 10 a.m. local time. At 5 a.m. local time, 91W was 285 miles southwest of Hong Kong, moving west at 14 mph. It's forecast to keep hanging around Hainan, though; this is a strange one. Stay tuned.


8 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 1, Hong Kong time: Strong Wind Signal 3 has been raised for Hong Kong, with 91W Invest passing south of the city as what the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is describing as likely a broad monsoon depression over the next day or so.

At 5 p.m., 91W was 210 miles south of Hong Kong, moving west at 16 mph. The GFS and CMC ensembles best tracks agree on a path west through Hainan into Vietnam, but disagree on the timing, GFS ensemble two days and CMC ensemble three.

The Hong Kong Observatory stated that unless the system intensifies significantly, the chances of upgrading to Gale or Storm Signal 8 is not high today.

More likely, this should be a rain event for Hong Kong, and less a wind event. HKO's forecast calls for outer bands to bring showers and squalls along with a few thunderstorms.

The Philippines' national weather authority PAGASA labeled 91W Tropical Depression Kabayan for local purposes, issued two severe weather bulletins on it and reports that Kabayan is now outside the Philippines area of responsibility.

As for 92W, speaking of disagreeing on timing, JTWC and the GFS and CMC ensembles best tracks each project this system to head in a north or northwesterly direction, in the general direction of Taiwan and southwestern Japan. For the moment, it appears it might pass well west of Okinawa..

The questions being, how strong might 92W become, and when? JTWC's latest report says 92W could reach tropical depression status sometime in the next several days. Quite broad a period.

One thing that remains certain is the chances of 92W developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remain high.  But again, very early in the life of a developing tropical system. Too soon to say for sure.

And way out east, JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on 90W Invest, which at 5 p.m. was 408 miles southeast of Wake Island ... and about 3,200 miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.

GFS and CMC ensembles best tracks have 90W headed for Japan before curving northeast and away from land, and not as an especially strong storm. But that's for the moment. It's a long way away and things could change.


5:40 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 1, Japan time: While the Atlantic coast braces for Category 4 Hurricane Dorian, the northwest Pacific has its eyes on a handful of invests, the one that could be a spot o' bother for Japan and Korea being 92W Invest.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on 92W Invest, and it could form into a tropical depression sometime in the next day or two.

At 5:30 a.m., 92W was 1,173 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base Okinawa. Initial model track guidance is varied, with NAVGEM showing a straight northwest run between Luzon and Taiwan, GFS between Ishigaki and the northeast tip of Taiwan and GEM favoring a course closer to Okinawa.

The GFS ensembles best track also depicts a course west of Okinawa, while the CMC ensemble best track heads closer to Okinawa, each with plenty of outliers. Both ensembles indicate a track into the Korean peninsula early next week, around Sept. 9 or 10.

Questions will arise over the next few days, the biggest ones being, will it hit us and when, and how powerful might it be.

The answer right now is, it's way too early to tell. 92W hasn't even become a tropical depression at this writing. Once it does, and has a day or three to settle in, the questions will become much more answerable.

There are a couple of other invests out there, 91W being the closest to our neck of the woods. Model track guidance agrees on a general run west toward Hainan Island in south China.

And 90W is way out east, hundreds of miles from Japan; model track guidance is split at this point, but most agreeing on a northeast curve in the general direction of or east of Japan. It's wait and see with those two.


2:45 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 31, Philippines time: A new disturbance, labeled 92W Invest, has formed east of the Philippines’ largest island, Mindanao, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Initial model-track guidance and the Global Forecast System ensemble indicate it could head in Japan’s and Korea’s general direction in the coming week. At 2 p.m., 92W Invest was 1,410 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa.

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